DEMOGRAPHY

BASIC PRINCIPLES

Dr. Vineetha K.
Department ofpublic healthdentistry 1
 CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION DEMOGRAPHIC
POPULATION GROWTH 01 04 PROCESSES
CAUSESOFPOPULATIONGROWTH CYCLE
FUNCTIONS OFDEMOGRAPHY
MODEL

HISTORY DEMOGRAPHI
IBNKHALDUN 02 05 C INDICATORS
JOHNGRAUNT
EDMUNDHALLEY INDIA IN NUMBERS
JOHNSNOW -POPULATIONSTATISTICS
-VITAL STATISTICS

THEORIES POPULATION
MALTHUSIAN 03 06
MARXIA TRENDS
N OPTIMUMPOPULATION
DEMOGRAPHICTRANSITION

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 INTRODUCTION
Population growth – an epidemic of homosapiens
TIMELINE
• Few million years ago 10 MILLION
• 8000 BC 500 MILLION
• 1800 1 BILLION
• 1930 2 BILLION
• 1975 4 BILLION
• 1999 6 BILLION
• 2011 7 BILLION
FUTUREPOPULATION PROJECTION
• 2030 9.5 BILLION
• 2100 12.6 BILLION

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Population Reference Beaureu
CAUSALLOOPDIAGRAM

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 DEMOGRAPHY
Demos – People Graphy - Measurement
Scientific study of human population

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FUNCTIONS OF DEMOGRAPHY

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 HISTORY
IBN KHALDUN (1332-1406)
• Father of demography
Economic analysis of social organization which produce the
first scientific and theoretical work on population,
development and group dynamics

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 JOHNGRAUNT
Credited for producing the first life table,
giving probabilities of survival to eachage.

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 EDMUND HAILLEY
• Halley developed life table based on sound
demographic data and discusse several
applications of his life d table including
calculations of life contingencies.

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LONDON CHOLERAMAP - JOHN SNOW
He plotted every death
on a map with
Ingenious mapped bar
charts and was able to
show that The closer to
the broad street the
water pump he plotted,
the greater the no of
deaths

This information helped

convince the public a
true sewage system was
needed and spurred the
city into action

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THEORIES OF POPULATION
GROWTH AND DECLINE

• Malthusian theory
• Marxian theory
• Optimum population theory
• The demographic transition theory
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 MALTHUSIAN THEORY
Overpopulation and Massive Poverty

• Thomas malthus (1766-1834) thoerized pessimistically that

population was uncontrollable

• Population when unchecked, increases in a

geometrical ratio (exponentially) Substinence
increases only in an arithmetic ratio (linearly) 12
 MARXIAN THEORY

• KARL MARX believed that the problem not

was
primarily one of the population but one of the
ownershipdistribution
inequitable of the means
of the of production
societies wealth. and the
• Marx felt that population could ultimately be controlled
by the complex workings of market economics and that
the economic markets, as they expanded, would be able
to sustain population at whatever level ithad reached.13
OPTIMUM POPULATIONTHEORY
ByCANAN

Population must grow up to certain desired level after which

further growth is harmful.

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DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
THEORY
1. High birth rate and high death rate
2. High birth rate and low death rate (population
explosion)
3. Low birth rate and low deathrate

Industrial and commercialdevelopment first cuts the

death rate but creates a desire for smaller families and
eventually cuts the birth rate.

-Proposed by F.Notestein
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 To describe population dynamics is the
Demographic Transition Cycle and Model.

o First stage - High stationary DECLINING HIGH

STATIONARY

o Second stage - Early expanding

o Third stage - Late expanding

LOW EARLY

o Fourth stage - Low stationary STATIONARY EXPANDING

o Fifth stage - Declining LATE

EXPANDING

by C.PBlacker
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 DEMOGRAPHIC CYCLE
5 STAGESOFDEMOGRAPHI CYCLE
STAGE BR DR EXAMPLES
Stage HIGH India was in this
1 STATIONARY stage till 1920
Stage EARLY South Asia & Africa
2 EXPANDING
Stage LATE India, China
3 EXPANDING Singapore
Stage LOW UK, Denmark, Sweden
4 STATIONARY Belgium
Stage DECLINING Germany & Hungary
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INDIA 1920 High stationary

INDIA PRESENT Late expanding
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 DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITIONMODEL
The model of demographic transition suggested that a population's
mortality and fertility would decline as a result of social and economic
development. It predicted that all countries would over time go through
four demographic transition stages.

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 POPULATIONMOMENTUM
Population growth at the national level that would
occur even if levels of childbearing immediately declined
to replacement level.

CAUSE – due to weighting of age structure towards the

young

Once the older generation dies, the population will start

shrinking

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DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES:

Fertility

Migration Mortality

Demographic
Process

Social
Marriage
Mobility

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DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS
POPULATION SIZE
POPULATION DENSITY
POPULATION
STATISTICS SEXRATIO
DEPENDENCYRATIO

BIRTH RATE

DEATHRATE
VITAL
GROWTHRATE
STATISTICS
LIFEEXPECTANCYATBIRTH

MORTALITYAND FERTILITY RATE

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INDIA IN NUMBERS

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 POPULATIONSIZE

• India’s current population – 1.21 billion

• The growth rate of population for India in the
last decade – 17.64%

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 POPULATIONDENSITY
• Occupies 2.4% of the world surface area
• It supports 17.5% of worlds population
• Density - 382 per square km

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 SEX RATIO
Number of females per 1000 males in the population

CAUSESOFLOW SEXRATIO
• Strong male child preference
• Consequent gender inequalities
• Neglect of girl child
• Female infenticide
• Female foeticide
• High MMR
• Male bias in population enumeration
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 AGECOMPOSITION
• Proportion of population < 14 yrs. – “DECLINING TREND”
• Proportion of the elderly “INCREASING”
POPULATION PYRAMID
Represents age structure of a population

A type of double sided bar graph

- % of population Males Vs. Females on opposite sides
- Shape of graph correlates with rate of population growth

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INTERPRETING POPULATIONPYRAMID
• Developing countries = rapid growth = more
young than old
• Developed countries = slow growth = about
equal numbers of all agegroups

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 ACCORDING TO DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITIONSTAGES

• Most developed countries have completed the

demographic transition and have low birth rates;
• Most developing countries are in the process of this
transition.[
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 FERTILITY
• Total number of children borne by a women at a point
of time during her child bearing age (15 to 45 years)

• Total fertility rate(TFR) gives an idea of total family size

• TFRin India: 2.68 (NFHS -3)

Family size depends upon

 Duration of marriage
 Education of couple
 No of live births
 Contraception method
“2 CHILD FAMILYNORM :
 Socio economic status LONGTERM GOALNRR=1 29
 MORTALITY
Refers to the number of deaths.
MATERNALMORTALITYRATE INFANT MORTALITY RATE
(maternal deaths per 1,00,000 live births)

INDIA 2007 to 09 - 212

2011 to 12 - 178
CAUSES
 Haemorrhage
 Infection(sepsis)
 Eclampsia
 Obstructed Labour

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 LIFEEXPECTANCY
• Expectation of life – at a given age is the average number of
years which a person of that age may expect to live, according
to the mortality pattern prevalent in that country
Indicator of country’s level of development & overall health status of the population

Expectation of life
at birth – world

1950 : 46.5 years

2002 :63 years

Census 2011 : the value of life expectancy at birth in India- 65.48 as of 2011
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 DEPENDENCYRATIO
Total Dependency Ratio = 0-14 Years + 65 YearsAndAbove
15 To65Years

FORTHEYEAR2010:
• Young age dependency ratio -47.9%
• Old age dependency ratio - 7.7%

DEMOGRAPHIC BURDEN
• Increase TDR
• Cause of economic burden

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 LITERACYANDEDUCATION
A person (7 yrs or more) is considered as literate if he or she
can read & write with understanding in anylanguage.

Highest literacy rate in India – KERALA(93.91)

Low for – Bihar (63.82)

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 MIGRATION
Migration affects population patterns.

IMMIGRATION
Happens when one
enters the country of
destination but not
permanently.
EMIGRATION
Happens when one
leaves ones’s country
in order to move into
another permanently.

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 URBANIZATION
CENSUS2011 RuralPopulation Urban Population Increase in Urban
(million) (million) Population (%)

INDIA 833.1 377.1 3.35

INTERNALMIGRATION
Within the country
Rural Urban
URBANIZATION
CAUSESOFURBANIZATION:
MIGRATION
• Better employment opportunities
• Better living standards
• Better availability of social services like Education,
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Health, Transport, Entertainment etc
 DEMOGRAPHIC DATA
• Demographic Data or Demographics are the
quantifiable statistics of a givenpopulation.
SOURCES

Vital Registration Statistics System Sample or special Surveys

Census

Demographic data Gathered and

Processed by Government Agencies
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 POPULATION EXPLOSION
• China is the most populated country with approximately
1.39 billion people in 2014.
• India’s population will reach 1.53 billion by 2050 and
will be the highest inworld
CAUSE- Higher population growth of india 1.2 %
compared to 5% ofchina.

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CAUSESOFOVERPOPULATION IN INDIA

Birth rate The Fertility Rate

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IS POPULATION GROWTH A BLESSING
ORACURSE?
 BLESSING

• Better economy

• Efficient utilization of resources

• Medical, agricultural and industrial growth

• Better Labour Force

• Greater Investments and Capital Formation

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 CURSE
• Shortage of Food and land
• Environmental Problems
• Problem of Unemployment
• Poverty and Low Standard of Living
• Inflation
• Conflict and war

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 National Population Policy -2000,
India aims at
SHORT TERM: Fullfill unmet need for contraception,
strengthening the health infrastructure, integrating
the services for Reproductive and ChildHealth.
MEDIUM TERM: Effective implementation of inter
sector strategies to substantially reduce the TFR by
2010.
LONG TERM : To sustain the economic growth,
social development and eco- conservation, stabilise
the population by 2045.
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 CONCLUSION
• Health status of a community depends upon
the dynamic relationship between the number
of people, their composition anddistribution.

• Planning of health services can be guided by

demographic variables.

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 REFERENCES
1. 2011 Census Of India
2. Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World
Population Data Sheet
3. K. Park, Park’s Textbook of Preventive
&Social Medicine ,21st Edition
4. MC Gupta & BK Mahajan,Text Book of
Preventive & Social Medicine,3rd Edition
5. Soben Peter, Essentials of Preventive
&Community Dentistry, 4th Edition
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Thank You!

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