EFFECTS OF ROADWAY AND TRAFFIC

CHARACTERISTICS ON ACCIDENTS
FREQUENCY AT CITY ENTRANCE ZONE

PRESENTED BY:

G.SHANMUKHA PRAVEEN -181109020

K.PAVAN SHASHIDHAR -181109034
CONTENTS:
 Introduction
 Literature Review
 Accident Frequency Estimation Models’ Structures
 Database Description
 Modelling Results and Discussion
 Conclusion
INTRODUCTION:
 safety management and reduction of road accidents
seem to be the key issues. Every day more than 3,000
people die in accident and its injuries worldwide.
 Road traffic injuries are currently estimated to be the ninth
leading cause of death across all age groups globally,
and are predicted to become the seventh leading cause
of death by 2030 [World Health Organization, 2015].
 The study on facts and figures in the statistical yearbooks
of transportation in Iran shows that in 2015, more than 100
thousand accidents occurred on rural roads of the
country, which decreased by 1.1% compared to the
previous year, 2014. Also, in 2015, 10860 people died due
to rural road accidents
 in recent years, more than 60 to 70 percent of road accidents in Iran
have occurred in the cities entrance zones.
 two popular models of Poisson regression and Negative Binomial are
used to estimate the number of accidents in the entrance roads of
Tehran, within 30 km of the city’s entrance.
 According to data dispersion and goodness of fit indexes, the best model
is introduced and important variables affecting the occurrence of
accidents are identified. Using these variables, solutions to improve the
safety within 30 km of Tehran entrance roads can be provided.
LITERATURE REVIEW

 Today, experts and researchers consider an accident as

a complex phenomenon that
1. human factors,
2. roadways
3. vehicles characteristics
Among the main components of an
accident,
a human factor is the strongest one.

Speed is one of the main causes of

accidents and fatalities worldwide. High
speed increases the likelihood and the
severity of accidents

The relationship between speed and

safety is based on two principles.

1. the relationship between speed and

accident severity
2. the relationship between speed and
accident frequency`
Accident Frequency Estimation
Models’ Structures

 two important and fashionable models are used to estimate

and describe the accidents frequency.
1. Poisson Regression Model
2. Negative Binomial Regression Model
 Poisson Regression Model

 When the average frequency of traffic accidents is low in one

segment, the Poisson model can be used.
 In this structure, it is assumed that the accident frequency in the
model follows the Poisson distribution with the mean μi.
 Then, the probability that a segment with the certain set of
predictive variables, experiences yi accident,
 The Poisson distribution has only one parameter, which is MEAN μi.
 The most important feature of Poisson distribution is that the mean
equals to the variance which can be known as its restriction.
 If the variance of accident frequency is significantly different from
the mean, the Poisson regression would be inappropriate.
 if the variance is much greater than the mean, Negative Binomial
regression can be applied as an alternative.
Negative Binomial Regression
Model
 Negative Binomial distribution is a discrete distribution that provides
another model for high-dispersion data, such as accidents data.
 Unlike the Poisson distribution, the distribution of the Negative
Binomial has two parameters.
1.The relationship between the frequency of accidents
2.parameters of the corresponding road
 Database Description

 The case study used to model the accidents frequency is Tehran city in this study
 The characteristics of highways connecting Tehran to the whole country road
network, in the 30 km buffer around the city, are considered for modelling
(Figure 1) and 10 highways are included.
All these variables are recorded using series of loop detectors, installed by
RMTO along the roadways surface. The avg no. of access points to the
highway within the 30 km buffer around Tehran is equal to 18 access points
Modelling Results and Discussion
 The below table represents the results of Poisson regression model:

 The coefficient of daily volume variable is positive and indicates the effect
of increasing volume on the occurrence of accidents.
 The coefficient of poor visibility variable is positive and indicates that in the
absence of proper vision, the probability of an accident increases.
 The coefficient of the heavy vehicle share is negative and indicates a lower
accident rate if heavy vehicles are present. This variable, like the other traffic
related variables is recorded by loop detectors.
 The coefficient of the average daily speed violation is positive, which
indicates an increase in the number of accidents due to increase in the
average traffic speed beyond the posted speed.
 The access and interchange coefficients are also positive indicating an
increase in the number of accidents due to an increase in the number of
direct access to the road and, consequently, an increase in vehicle
interference.
 The below table represents the results of negative binomial model:


 the coefficient of daily average volume, with increase of volume by 1%, the number of
accidents increases by 0.0047 times the existing volume.
 the coefficient of number of interchanges, it can be claimed that by reducing the
number of interchanges by 1%, the number of accidents decreases by 0.1427 times
the number of interchanges.
 the coefficient of average daily speed violation, with a decrease of 1% of the number
of daily speed violations, the number of accidents reduces by 0.0009 times the number
of violations.
Conclusion
 Four overall outcomes of this study can be summarized as follow:
1. Negative Binomial regression model compared to Poisson regression model, is more
appropriate to estimate the effects of descriptive variables on accident frequency
in 30 kilometre buffer around city.
2. Poisson model can predict the mean of accident frequency more accurately while
the variance of predictions is not consistent with the real condition.
3. The most important variables affecting the number of accidents include average
daily volume, existence of poor visibility in road, average daily speed violation and
number of access and interchange in highways.
4. According to the Negative Binomial model results, 10 percent reduction in speed
violations may lead to 1 to 17 percent reduction in monthly accidents frequency in
entrance roads, which is very notable.
THANK YOU