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Complete Binomial Models - 張森林教授講稿
Complete Binomial Models - 張森林教授講稿
S0 u
ƒu
S0
ƒ S0d
ƒd
Generalization
(continued)
S0–
S0d– ƒd
f
• The portfolio is riskless when S0u– ƒu = S0d – ƒd or
ƒu f d
S0 u S0 d
Generalization
(continued)
• Value of the portfolio at time T is
S0u – ƒu
• Value of the portfolio today is
(S0u – ƒu )e–rT
• Another expression for the
portfolio value today is S0– f
• Hence ƒ = S0– (S0u – ƒu )e–rT
Generalization
(continued)
where
e d rT
p
ud
Risk-Neutral Valuation
• ƒ = [ p ƒu + (1 – p )ƒd ]e-rT
• The variables p and (1– p ) can be interpreted as the
risk-neutral probabilities of up and down movements
• The value of a derivative is its expected payoff in a
risk-neutral world discounted at the risk-free rate
S0u
p ƒu
S0
ƒ ( S0d
1–
p) ƒd
Irrelevance of Stock’s Expected
Return
p Su
S
1–
p Sd
Tree Parameters for a
Nondividend Paying Stock
• We choose the tree parameters p, u, and d
so that the tree gives correct values for the
mean & standard deviation of the stock
price changes in a risk-neutral world
er t = pu + (1– p )d
2t = pu 2 + (1– p )d 2 – [pu + (1– p )d ]2
u e t
d e t
ad
p
ud
a e r t
The Complete Tree
(Figure 18.2)
S0u3 S0u4
S0u2
S0u S0u S0u2
S0
S0 S0d S0
S0d
S0d2
S0d2
S0d3
S0d4
Backwards Induction
• Procedure:
– Draw the tree for the stock price less the
present value of the dividends
– Create a new tree by adding the present
value of the dividends at each node
• This ensures that the tree recombines and makes
assumptions similar to those when the Black-
Scholes model is used
II. Literature Review (1/5)
There have been many extensions of the CRR model.
The extensions can be classified into five
directions.
The first direction consists in modifying the lattice to
improve the accuracy and computational efficiency.
Boyle (1988)
Breen (1991)
Broadie and Detemple (1996)
Figlewski and Gao (1999)
Heston and Zhou (2000)
II. Literature Review (2/5)
The second branch of the binomial OPM literature
has incorporated multiple random assets.
Boyle (1988)
Boyle, Evnine, and Gibbs (1989)
Madan, Milne, and Shefrin (1989)
He (1990)
Ho, Stapleton, and Subrahmanyam (1995)
Chen, Chung, and Yang (2002)
II. Literature Review (3/5)
pu
u M M M 1
2
S
pm
S
u 1 u 1
2
pm 1 Pu Pd pd
pd
u2 M 2
M u 3 M 1
u 1 u 2 1 Sd
3.3 Adaptive Mesh Model
• This is a way of grafting a high resolution
tree on to a low resolution tree
• We need high resolution in the region of
the tree close to the strike price and option
maturity
3.4 BBS and BBSR
62.99 56.12
56.12
3.36 62.99 56.12
56.12 50.00 6.87 0.00
50.00
4.68 A
5.47
56.12 50.00 44.55
44.55
6.12 2.66 56.12 50.00
50.00 11.57 5.45
36.69
6.38
50.00 35.36
10.31 50.00
14.64
Why the Approach Works
This approach works for lookback options because
• The payoff depends on just 1 function of the path followed
by the stock price. (We will refer to this as a “path
function”)
• The value of the path function at a node can be calculated
from the stock price at the node & from the value of the
function at the immediately preceding node
• The number of different values of the path function at a
node does not grow too fast as we increase the number of
time steps on the tree
Extensions of the
Approach
• The approach can be extended so that there
are no limits on the number of alternative
values of the path function at a node
• The basic idea is that it is not necessary to
consider every possible value of the path
function
• It is sufficient to consider a relatively small
number of representative values of the function
at each node
Working Forward
• First work forwards through the tree
calculating the max and min values of
the “path function” at each node
• Next choose representative values of
the path function that span the range
between the min and the max
– Simplest approach: choose the min, the
max, and N equally spaced values
between the min and max
Backwards Induction
S = 50.00
Average S Option Price
46.65 5.642 X
49.04 5.923
51.44 6.206 S = 45.72
53.83 6.492
Average S Option Price
0.4944 43.88 3.430
46.75 3.750
49.61 4.079
52.48 4.416
S=50, X=50, =40%, r=10%, T=1yr, Z
t=0.05yr. We are at time 4t
Part of Tree to Calculate Value of
an Option on the Arithmetic
Average (continued)
Consider Node X when the average of 5
observations is 51.44
Node Y: If this is reached, the average becomes
51.98. The option price is interpolated as 8.247
Node Z: If this is reached, the average becomes
50.49. The option price is interpolated as 4.182
Node X: value is
(0.5056×8.247 + 0.4944×4.182)e–0.1×0.05 = 6.206
A More Efficient Approach for
Lookbacks (Section 20.6, page 465)
F (t )
Define Y (t )
S (t )
where F ( t ) is the MAX stock price
Construct a tree for Y (t )
Use the tree to value the lookback
option in " stock price units" rather
than dollars
Using Trees with Barriers
(Section 20.7, page 467)
d * i d i e t log i
m* i m i e
log i
Alternative Solutions
to the Problem
• Ensure that nodes always lie on the
barriers
• Adjust for the fact that nodes do not
lie on the barriers
• Use adaptive mesh
Under the first approach: Transform variables so that they are not
correlated & build the tree in the transformed variables
x x x1 x2
S1 exp 1 2 S 2 exp
2 2 2 1
Modeling Two Correlated Variables
Take the correlation into account by adjusting the
position of the nodes:
1
( r q1 12 ) t 1 tZ1
S1t t S1t e 2
1
( r q2 2 2 ) t 2 tZ1 1 2 2 tZ 2
S2t t S2t e 2
1 1
1, p 1, p
2 2 , Z and Z are independent
Z1 Z2 1 2
1, 1 1, 1
p p
2
2
Modeling Two Correlated Variables
Take the correlation into account by adjusting the probabilities
1
( r q1 12 ) t 1 tZ1
S1t t S1t e 2
1
( r q2 2 2 ) t 2 tZ 2
S2t t S 2t e 2
1 2 1 2
1 r q1 2 1 r q2 2 2
(1,1) p 1 t
4 1 2
1 1
r q1 12 r q2 2 2
1
(1, 1) p 1 t 2 2
4 1 2
( Z1 , Z 2 )
1 1
r q1 12 r q2 2 2
1 2 2
(1,1) p 4 1 t 1
2
1 2 1 2
1 r q1 2 1 r q2 2 2
(1, 1) p 1 t
4 1 2
Multi-Asset tree model under complete
market economy
Chen, R. R., S. L. Chung, and T. T. Yang, 2002, Option Pricing in a
Multi-Asset, Complete-Market Economy, Journal of Financial and
Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 37, No. 4, 649-666.
With two uncorrelated Brownian motions with equal variances, the
three points, A, B, and C, are best to be “equally” apart from each
other. This can be achieved most easily by choosing 3 points,
located 120 degrees from each other, on the circumference of a
circle, as shown in Exhibit 2.
y axis
C’
A’
x axis
C B
B’
Multi-Asset tree model under complete
market economy
To incorporate the correlation between the two Brownian motions, we then
rotate the axes, as shown in Exhibit 3.
y axis
y axis (rotated)
A A*
x axis (rotated)
x axis
B*
C B
C*
Multi-Asset tree model under complete
market economy
Proposition 2
The rotation of the axes is defined as follows:
1 tan *
xˆ j 1 tan 2 1 tan 2 x j
tan *
yˆ j 1
y j
1 tan 2 1 tan 2
2 X*2
sin 1
2
Multi-Asset tree model under complete
market economy
Finally, for any given time, t, the next period stock prices are:
ln S1,1,t t ln S 2,1,t t
ln S1,2,t t ln S 2, 2,t t
ln S1,3,t t ln S 2,3,t t
1 rx xˆ1 ry yˆ1
1 ln S1,t (r 21 )t ln S 2,t (r 22 )t rx xˆ 2
2
2
ry yˆ 2
1 rx xˆ 3 ry yˆ 3
5. Binomial models for
other processes
Time-varying volatility
processes
how to construct a recombined
binomial/trinomial tree under time-
varying volatility?
1. Amin (1991) suggested changing the number of steps
(or dt) such that the tree is recombined.
2. Ho, Stapleton, and Subrahmanyam (1995) suggested
using two steps to match the conditional and
unconditional volatility and unconditional mean.
3. Using the trinomial tree of Boyle (1988) or Ritchken
(1995). See next page.
Ref : Amin (1995, pp.39-40) has a very nice discussion on
this issue.
Amin, 1995, Option Pricing Trees, Journal of Derivatives,
34-46.
Amin (1991)(1/2)
and m 1
ln V
Y
b
mv
dY 0.5b dt dZ v
bV
Next, make the following transformation to obtain a
constant variance variable H:
dH H S V S dZ S H V bVdZV mh dt
mh dt h dZ h (4)
where
mh H s ms H v mv 0.5H ss S 2V 0.5H v v b 2V 2 H sv bVS V sv
h 1 bH SV 0.25 bH
2
0.5
Then make another transformation to obtain a unit variance
variable Q.
dQ mq dt dZ h
(5)
where
mh
mq 0.5Qhh h2
h
Binomial tree for Y and trinomial tree for Q
Y2, 2
Y1, 1
Y0, 0 Y2, 0
Y1, -1
Y2, -2
Q2, 2
Q1, 1 Q2, 1
Q0, 0 Q1, 0 Q2, 0
Q1, -1 Q2, -1
Q2, -2
T/n = h : 0 1 2
Option Pricing under GARCH
The main idea is to keep the spanning of the tree flexible, i.e. the size of
up or down movements can be adjusted to match the conditional
variance.
Option Pricing for the
Transformed-Binomial Class
January 2004
11 School
SchoolofofManagement,
Management,University
UniversityofofMichigan-Flint,
Michigan-Flint,3118
3118William
WilliamS.
S.White
White
Building, Flint, MI 48502-1950. Tel: (810) 762-3268, Fax: (810) 762-3282,
Building, Flint, MI 48502-1950. Tel: (810) 762-3268, Fax: (810) 762-3282,
Email:
Email:acamara@umflint.edu
acamara@umflint.edu
22 Department
DepartmentofofFinance,
Finance,The
TheManagement
ManagementSchool,
School,National
NationalTaiwan
Taiwan
University, Taipei 106, Taiwan. Tel:886-2-23676909, Fax:886-2-23660764,
University, Taipei 106, Taiwan. Tel:886-2-23676909, Fax:886-2-23660764,
Email:
Email:chungs@mba.ntu.edu.tw.
chungs@mba.ntu.edu.tw.
Abstract
This paper generalizes the seminal Cox-Ross-
Rubinstein (1979) binomial option pricing model
(OPM) to all members of the class of transformed-
binomial pricing processes. Our investigation
addresses issues related with asset pricing
modeling, hedging strategies, and option pricing.
We derive explicit formulae for (1) replicating or
hedging portfolios; (2) risk-neutral transformed-
binomial probabilities; (3) limiting transformed-
normal distributions; and (4) the value of contingent
claims. We also study the properties of the
transformed-binomial class of asset pricing
rocesses. We illustrate the results of the paper with
several examples.
I. Introduction (1/7)
multiplicative-binomial option pricing
model: Cox, Ross, and Rubinstein (1979),
Rendlemen and Bartter (1979), and Sharpe
(1978)
g S i ,k ln S i , k r
t i t
The SU-binomial model
S i , k
g S i , k ln
S i , k
Figure 1: The convergence of the S_L binomial price to its closed form
solution
13.6
13.55
S_L binomial
13.5 price
closed-form
price
13.45
13.4
13.35
13.3
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
number of time steps
This figure shows the convergence pattern resulting from option price
calculations with the SL-binomial model. We use the following selection of
parameters: S = 100, K = 100, r = 0.1, = 20, t = 1.0, = 0.25.
Figure 2: The convergence of the S_U binomial price to its closed form
solution
24.3
24.25
24.2
24.15 S_U binomial
24.1
price
24.05 closed-form
price
24
23.95
23.9
23.85
23.8
23.75
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
number of time steps
This figure shows the convergence pattern resulting from option price
calculations with the SU-binomial model. We use the following selection of
parameters: S = 100, K = 100, r = 0.1, t = 1.0, = 0.25.
Figure 3: The convergence of the S_B binomial price
12.24
12.22
12.2
12.16
12.14
12.12
12.1
12.08
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
number of time steps