PROJECT PRESENTATION

BY
ONYIA CHUKWUKA OBINNA

AGU VICTORIA CHINONSO

ON
PROJECT MANAGEMENT
USING CPM/PERT METHODS
(A CASE STUDY OF HELICON ASSOCIATES,
OWERRI).
 CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
• Project management is the discipline of planning, organizing and managing
resources to bring about the successful completion of specific project goals and
objectives.
• Project management has been practiced since early civilization. Two fathers of
project management are Henry Gantt, the father of planning and control
techniques, which is famous for his use of Gantt chart as a project management
tool. And Henry Fayol for his creation of a project management function which
forms the foundation of the body of knowledge associated with project and
project control management. The 1950’s marked the beginning of the modern
project management era. At that time, two mathematical project scheduling
models were developed. The Critical Path Method (CPM) developed as a joint
venture between Dupont Corporation and Remington Rand Corporation for
managing plant maintenance projects. And the Program Evaluation and Review
Technique (PERT) developed by Booz-Allen and Hamilton as part of the United
States Navy’s Polaris missile submarine program. These mathematical
techniques quickly spread into many private enterprises.
• Basically, CPM/PERT are project management techniques
which have been created out of the need of western
industrial and military establishment to plan schedules and
control complex projects. Its graphic way of showing and
managing events and activities in a project provides a clear
and efficient method to analyze and allocate resources in
order to meet deadlines in a project.
• In this work, we present a study that describes the method
and models that are applied in estimating the durations
involved in project management. Traditionally, the managers
or experts estimate the durations of each activity in a project
and this is often based on their knowledge, experience or
historic data. This paper presents research that provides
more accurate method to achieve the objectives.
 Objective of the Study

The major objective of this study is to;

1 Identify the duration of the project.
2 Identify the critical and non-critical activities in the project.
3 Calculate the real duration of the project.
4 Calculate the probability of completing the project within a
specified period.
1.3 Aim of the Study.
1 To avoid delay in projects.
2.To construct a 3-bedroom bungalow within 105 days (i.e. 3
months and 1 week).
 
1.4 Scope of the Study
This work is aimed at applying two techniques i.e. the CPM and PERT methods
in evaluating the statement plan of HELICON ASSOCIATES in the construction of
a 3-bedroom bungalow and to bring into focus the implication and
consequence of the plan. These techniques make use of networks to help plan
and display the coordination of all the activities

1.5 Motivation of the Study

HELICON ASSOCIATES wants to construct a 3-bedroom bungalow within 4
months and 1 week. The motivation of this study is to bring the project in on
schedule and perhaps even finish early within 3 months and 1 week using the
CPM/PERT method.
1.7 Literature Review
Since the development of CPM/PERT in the 1950’s the techniques have been
the subject of hundreds of research papers. Research has generally been
focused on PERT since the deterministic CPM represents few problems of
interest. The research on PERT can be categorized into five general categories.
The first category includes the research on the error and bias due to
assumptions made by PERT. The second involves finding the distribution
function of a project completion time through exact analysis, approximation
and bonding methods. Third, Monte Carlo sampling has been used to study the
distribution of PERT networks. The fourth involves resource allocation
problems and load leveling. The fifth area is the crashing of PERT networks. The
literature review will focus on the research most directly related to this study
of CPM and PERT networks.
Construction projects are normally executed in an environment characterized
by varying degrees of uncertainties. Factors (Faniran et al.1998) such as
weather, labour skills, site conditions and management quality can influence
the duration of construction activities. Many researches (cox 1995: Ben-Haim
and Laufer 1998, Ayman 2000) have investigated the completion time
distribution
under uncertain conditions. Research studies have indicated that construction
planning efforts usually fail to achieve their objectives.
During the construction of the resource constrained schedule (forward pass)
the sources of each activity’s resources are noted and this information is then
used to create additional links explicitly representing the resource
dependencies in the network (Bowers 1995, p.81).
Using resource constraints is required in construction scheduling. Otherwise,
the schedule is not realistic, since some resources are highly limited in most
construction projects and start ability of certain activities is determined by the
limited resources. Many resource scheduling (RCS) have been developed to
apply resource constraints (Kelly, 1963; Moder et al, 1983). These traditional
resource constrained scheduling successfully generate resource constrained
schedules in which all activities can be executed without resource constraints.
However, they do not provide correct float data and the critical path of the
schedules (Wiest, 1964; Woodworth and Shanahan, 1988; Fondahl, 1991; Just
and Murphy, 1994; Bowers, 1995; Lu and Li, 2003).
A resource constrained schedule contains resource dependencies between
activities as well as technological relationships. The traditional RCS do not
consider the resource dependencies resulting to incorrect activity float data
and then incorrect critical path. Correct float data and the critical path are
prerequisites in construction scheduling and control. Without this information,
the project would be very hard to control since every activity should be treated
as a critical activity. In addition, the total float of an activity is very important in
delay impact analyses because of its sharing property with other activities and
amount of impact on the project completion time (de la Garza et al, 1991;
Callahan et al, 1992; Bartholomew, 1998).
The other drawback of a resource-constrained schedule is inflexibility in
activity schedules. Traditional RCS normally generate a single fixed early start
schedule. However depending on the resource usage and the network
condition, there could be alternative start and finish time for certain activities
in the same schedule without delaying the project completion time (Bowers,
2000). If these alternative schedules are comprehended initially, the schedule
will be more flexible and thus better able to deal with unanticipated events
such as equipment failure, delays in material delivery, etc.
Uncertainty of duration on the construction activities (Williams 1990) were
summarized as the activity duration, the resource requirements of activities,
resource availability of the structure of the network itself, the precedence
relations or even the existence of particular activities.
Risks associated with project delays (Shen 1997) were identified. These risks
were described as insufficient or incorrect design information, shortage of
materials/plan resources, inaccuracy of project program, subcontractor’s
manpower shortage, variation in ground and weather conditions, abortive
works due to poor workmanship, shortage of skills/techniques and poor
co-coordination with subcontractors
Source of risks affecting schedules (Mulholland and Christian 1999) are
categorized as four classes: engineering design, procurement, site construction
and project management. Since the critical path method (CPM) was used to
plan for large project schedules, many models have been presented to cope
with the uncertainties in the project planning. The two basic network techniques are
CPM and PERT.
The orientation of CPM is deterministic; the orientation of PERT is probabilistic.
Gong and Husted (1993) developed a merge-event time estimation technique
to combine the uncertainties of both critical and noncritical path activities into
the time-risk analysis of a project network. Gong and James (1995) also
presented a safe float use range concept on activity to solve the joint influence
of float use and the uncertainty of noncritical activities on the project time.
All above methods, deterministic or probabilistic are based on the
following assumption;
1 .Numbers of activities in a project network is defined as a constant.
2 .There is a logical relationship among activities in the project.
3 .The activities’ duration can be estimated and defined as independent
from each other i.e. we cannot use one line to represent two activities.
4 .The total time distribution of a project is approximately normal.
 
 CHAPTER TWO
2.1 METHOD OF DATA COLLECTION
• Data on project was collected from the director’s office with the
help of a site engineer.
• Two methods of data collection were employed in the data
collection. The first method was to identify what should be and
what should not be regarded as an activity in the project. The lists
of activities were compiled and the activity durations were given.
• After all the activities were identified, the second method of data
collection involved the determination of the interdependencies
and precedence relationships among the activities. These were
arrived at by finding, for each activity, its immediate
predecessors; after which the data were re-arranged for
modeling.
To allow for the usage of PERT analysis, which is a stochastic model in clearing
uncertainties, three time estimates of duration namely optimistic duration i.e.
the time required to complete each activity if execution is extremely good, the
most likely time i.e. the normal duration, and the pessimistic duration i.e. the
time required for the completion of the project if execution is extremely bad,
were computed.
 Table 1 shows the activities and the activity duration in the plan using the CPM technique.
Table 1;
Code Activity Immediate Duration
Predecessor
A Site clearing -
2
B Bringing of materials A 2
C Setting- out (pegging) A,B
2
D Excavation (including septic tank) C 5
E Placing of columns D 1
F Blinding of foundation E 1
G Forming of block work to DPC level (including septic tank) F 3
H Backfilling and ramering G 2

I Casting of German floor H 3

J Flooring of septic tank I 1
K Placing of formwork and reinforcement of columns I 2
L Block work to lintel stage K 10
M Formwork for lintel and slab (for septic tank) L 3
N Casting of columns, lintel and slab (for septic tank) M 5
O Leveling with block work N 3
P Carpentry work for roofing O 7
2.3 PLANNING, SCHEDULING AND CONTROL:
The planning phase use the project rules as a foundation and defines the path
to achieve the project goals either by CPM/PERT as the path to be chosen. It is
performed by the manager and the core project team which interfaces with
appropriate elements of the organization and identifies the actual work to be
done. It includes estimating schedule and resources required to perform the
work and produces plans to serve as a baseline and direct the work. A key part
of schedule planning is identifying the critical path. This is the chain of
interdependent, sequential project activities that takes the longest time to
complete and thus determines the minimum schedule for the project. Planning
also includes the risk identification and risk reduction efforts. The results of the
planning phase become the project plan.
There are many variation of CPM/PERT which have been useful in planning
costs, scheduling manpower and machine time. CPM/PERT can ensure the
following important questions;
1.How long will the entire project take to be completed? What are the risks
involved?
2.Which are the critical activities or tasks in the project which could delay the
entire project if they were not completed on time?
3.Is the project on schedule, behind schedule or ahead of schedule?

2.3 THE FRAME WORK FOR CPM AND PERT

Essentially, there are six steps which are common to both the techniques. The
procedures are
listed below;
i. Define the project and all of its significant activities or tasks. The project
(made up of several
tasks) should have only a single start activity and a single finish activity.
ii. Develop the relationships among the activities. Decide which activities must
precede and which
must follow others.
iii. Draw the ‘network’ connecting all the activities. Each activity should have
unique event
numbers. Dummy arrows are used where required to avoid giving the same
numbering to two
activities.
iv. Assign time and/or cost estimates to each activity.
v. Compute the longest time path through the network. This is called the
critical path.
vi. Use the network to help plan schedule, monitor and control the project.
The key concept used by CPM/PERT is that a small set of activities which make
up the longest path through the activity network control the entire project. If
these ‘critical’ activities could be identified and assigned to responsible
persons, management resources could be optimally used by concentrating on
the few activities which determine the fate of the entire project.
Non-critical activities can be preplanned, rescheduled and resources for them
can be reallocated flexibly, without affecting the whole project.
Five useful questions to ask when preparing an activity network are;
i. Is this a start activity?
ii. Is this a finish activity?
iii. What activity precedes this?
iv. What activity follows this?
v. What activity is concurrent with this?
Some activities are serially linked. The second activity can begin only after the
first activity is completed. In certain cases, the activities are concurrent
because they are independent of each other and can stint simultaneously. This
is especially the case in organizations, which have supervisory resources so
that work can be delegated to various departments which will be responsible
for the activities and their completion as planned.
When work is delegated like this, the need for constant feedback and co-
ordination becomes an important senior management pre-occupation.
2.4 DEFINITION OF TERMS
Project: A project is defined as a collection of interrelated activities with each
activity consuming time and resources.
Activity: An activity can be defined as any task or job of its own which
requires both time and other resources for its completion. Determination of
what should be or should not be regarded as activity in a project depends on the
management.
Critical Activity: An activity is said to be critical if there is no ‘leeway’ in
determining its start and finish times.
Non-Critical Activity: This allows some scheduling slack so that the start time
of the activity may be advanced or delayed within limits without affecting the
completion data of the entire project.
Event: This is defined as a point in time which activities are terminated and
others are started. In terms of the network, an event cone points to a node.
The chain goes from project activities
events.
Forward Pass (Earliest Occurrence Time, ): This determines the earliest
occurrence time of the events. The computation starts at node 1 and ends at
node n. It starts by setting 1
=0 to indicate that the project starts at time 0.
Given that p, q, …, v are linked directly to node j by incoming activities (p,j),
(q,j),…,and (v,j) and that the earliest occurrence times of events (nodes) p,q,
…,and v have already been computed, then the earliest occurrence time of
event j is computed as;
j= max p + Dpj, q + Dqj,…, v + Dvj .
The forward pass is complete when n at node n has been computed.
By definition, j represents the longest path (duration) to node j.
Backward Pass (Latest Occurrence Time, ): This calculates the latest
occurrence time of the events. Following the completion of the forward pass,
the backward pass computation starts at node n and ends at node 1. It starts
by setting n
= n
to indicate that the earliest and latest occurrences of the
last node of the project are the same. Given that the nodes p, q,…, and v are
linked directly to node j by outgoing activities (j,p), (j,q),…, and (j,v) and that
the latest occurrence times of nodes p, q,…, and v have already been
computed, the latest occurrence time of node j is computed as;
j= min p – Djp, q – Djq,…, v – Djv .
The backward pass is complete when 1 at node 1 is computed. At this
point, 1= 1 (=0).
Based on the preceding calculations, an activity (i,j) will be critical if it
satisfies three conditions;
1. i= i
2. j= j
3. j- i= j- i = Dij.
The three conditions state that the earliest and latest occurrence times of end
nodes I and j are equal and the duration Dij fit “tightly” in the specified time
span. An activity that does not satisfy all three conditions is thus noncritical.
The critical activities of a network must constitute an uninterrupted path that
spans the entire network from start to finish.
Total Float: This is the spare time available when all the preceding activities
occur at the earliest possible time and all succeeding activities occur at the
latest possible time.
TFij = j - i - Dij

Free Float: This is defined as the excess of the time span defined from
the earliest occurrence of event i to the earliest occurrence of event j
over the duration of (i,j) i.e., TFij = j- i - Dij.
By definition, FFij ≤ TFij.
Red-Flagging Rule: For a noncritical activity (i,j)
(a) If FFij = TFij, then the activity can be scheduled anywhere within it’s ( j ,
i
) span without causing schedule conflict.
(b) If FFij ‹ TFij, then the start of the activity can be delayed by at most FF ij
relative to its earliest start time ( i) without causing schedule conflict.
Any delay larger than FFij (but not more than TFij) must be coupled with an
equal delay relative to j in the start time of all the activities leaving
node j.
The implication of the rule is that a non critical activity (i,j) will be red-flagged if
its FFij = TFij. This red flag is important only if we decide to delay the start of the
activity past its earliest start time, i, in which case we must pay attention to the
start times of the activities leaving node j to avoid schedule conflicts.
The critical path is the longest duration path through the network. The
significance of the critical path activities that lie on it cannot be delayed
without delaying the project. Because of its analysis is an important aspect of
project planning.
The critical path can be identified by determining the following four
parameters for each activity;
1. ES – Earliest start time: The earliest time at which the activities must be
completed first. This is represented mathematically as ECij = ESij + Dij, where
ECij is the earliest completion time which are defined for activity(i,j).
2. EF – Earliest finish time: This is equal to the earliest start time for the
activity plus the time required to complete the activity i.e. EFij = ESi + Dij
3. LF – Latest finish time: The latest time at which the activity can be
completed without delaying the project.
4. LS – Latest start time: This is the latest time an event can begin without
delaying the entire project. This is represented mathematically as LSij = LCj – Dij,
where LC is the latest completion and Dij is the duration. Therefore LCn = ESn, as
we observed.
The slack indicates how much delay in reaching n event can be tolerated
without delaying the entire project completion time. Suppose ESi is the earliest
start time of all the activities emanating from event i, then ES i represents the
earliest occurrence time of event i. If i = 0 is the ‘start’ event, then
conventionally for the critical path computation ESo = 0. Let Dij be the duration
of activity (i,j). The forward pass calculation is obtained from the formula;

ESj = Max ESi + Dij for all (i,j) activities.

While the backward pass is given by;
LCj = Min LCj – Dij for all (i,j) activities.
2.5 CPM LIMITATIONS
CPM does not allow any uncertainty in duration tasks or in the project
completion time. Whilst, this makes the analysis and the path analysis to be
simpler, it does not reflect real life, where tasks may be delayed or may be
completed ahead of schedule. This uncertainty limits the extent to which CPM
is useful in the real world.

2.6 PERT LIMITATIONS

In PERT analysis, all the estimates for the tasks durations and the probability
distributions of these durations are quite subjective. In cases where the
probability distribution of the times is known not to be a beta distribution,
PERT applies a beta distribution anyway which can cause inaccuracy. Even if the
tasks duration have beta distribution, the overall probability distribution of the
project duration will not necessarily be the same as the distribution of the
critical path. In particular, delays to other activities and improvements to the
critical path can cause other paths to become critical, hence PERT tends to
consistent underestimate the overall project duration.
 CHAPTER THREE
METHOD OF ANALYSIS

• 3.1 MODEL OF ASSUMPTION

• CRITICAL PATH METHOD ASSUMPTION;
• CPM is a deterministic model. It assumes that the project duration
can be predicted accurately, i.e. the duration of each activity is not a
random variable. CPM makes use of a one time estimate. This
assumption implies that the cost of executing a project can be
accurately determined for the entire project duration.
PROGRAM EVALUATION AND REVIEW TECHNIQUE ASSUMPTION;
This allows for uncertainty in activity durations by making use of three time
estimates i.e. the optimistic time denoted by a (which is the unlikely but
possible time of completing a task if every thing goes well), the most likely
time denoted by m (the most realistic estimate of the time the activity might
require) and the pessimistic time denoted by b (the unlikely but possible time if
every thing goes wrong). PERT assumption includes the following;
1. The activity times are statistically independent.
2. The critical path always requires a longer total elapsed time than any
other path.
3. The project time is asymptotically normal.
Most PERT analysis assumes a beta distribution for the job as shown in
the figure below:
 beta distribution

a m b

Where μ represents the average length of time of the job duration. The value of
m depends on how close the value of ‘a’ and ‘b’ are relative to m. The expected
time to complete an activity is approximated as:
μ = a + 4m + b
6
The variance of the time is given as:
V2 = b – a 2
6
The spread of the distribution is equal to six times the standard deviation σ,
thus;
6σ = b – a or σ = b – a
6
3.2 TABULATION AND ANALYSIS OF CPM.
The table and diagram below shows the various events and calculates the
Forward Pass, Backward Pass, Total Float and Free Float for the CPM method.
 2
2 C=
0 a=
2 2
2 9 10 11 14 16 19 21 31 34 39 42 49
2
g=1 h=1 i=3 j=2 k=3 m=2 0=10 p=3 q=5
1 b=2
3
f=5
4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 r=3
15 s=7 16
0 4 9 10 11 14 16 19 21 31 34 39 42 49
l=
1

20
C=

u=
4 10

5
l=4
53 n=4

57
60 54
4 62 19 53
y=3 v=4
67
d=

ac=2 21 26
ad=5 17
5

18 W=5 22
23 57
80
62 62 60 53
67
Ae
=1

z=
68

3
24
af=4
X=5

68 72
25
ag=5
77
72

an=1
79
ai=2 27 80
Ah=3
29
77 28
79
ab=2
80
ak=1

9 80
20 al= Aj=
1 30 1

77 80
Am
=1

81
31

81

THE ACTIVITIES NETWORK OF CRITICAL PAHT METHOD DIAGRAM.

ACTIVITY 1-3 (b): START TIME = 2, DELAY relative to its EARLIEST START = 2,
FREE FLOAT = 2.
ACTIVITY 1-18 (c): START TIME = 12, DELAY relative to its EARLIEST START = 12,
FREE FLOAT = 0. Because delay exceeds FREE FLOAT by 12, succeeding activities
(w, x) cannot start earlier than time 16. CAUTION: Activities following (w, x) if
any, are not checked for possible delay. This step is done manually by assigning
zero delay to (w, x).
ACTIVITY 1-20 (d): START TIME = 15, DELAY relative to its EARLIEST START = 15,
FREE FLOAT = 4. Because delay exceeds FREE FLOAT by 11, succeeding activities
(ab) cannot start any earlier than time 20. CAUTION: Activities following (ab), if
any, are not checked for possible delay. This step is done manually by assigning
zero delay to (ab).
ACTIVITY 9-10 (l): START TIME = 39, DELAY relative to its EARLIEST START = 20,
FREE FLOAT = 0. Because delay exceeds FREE FLOAT by 20, succeeding activities
(n) cannot start earlier than time 40. CAUTION: Activities following (n), if any,
are not checked for possible delay. This step is done manually by assigning zero
delay to (n).
ACTIVITY 10-19 (n): START TIME = 44, DELAY relative to its EARLIEST START = 24,
FREE FLOAT = 33.
ACTIVITY 16-26 (u): START TIME = 75, DELAY relative to its EARLIEST START = 26,
FREE FLOAT = 0. Because delay exceeds FREE FLOAT by 26, succeeding activities
(an) cannot start
earlier than time 80. CAUTION: Activities following (an), if any, are not checked
for possible delay. This step is manually by assigning zero delay to (an).
ACTIVITY 18-23 (w): START TIME = 4, DELAY relative to its EARLIEST START = 0,
FREE FLOAT = 58. FINISH preceding activities (c) must be moved back to time 4
(or earlier if possible).
ACTIVITY 18-20 (x): START TIME = 30, DELAY relative to its EARLIEST START = 26,
FREE FLOAT = 0. Because delay exceeds FREE FLOAT by 26, succeeding activities
(ab) cannot start any earlier than time 35. CAUTION: Activities following (ab), if
any, are not checked for possible delay. This step is done manually by assigning
zero delay to (ab).

ACTIVITY 19-28 (z): START TIME = 65, DELAY relative to its EARLIEST START = 8,
FREE FLOAT = 20.
ACTIVITY 20-29 (ab): START TIME = 47, DELAY relative to its EARLIEST START =
38, FREE FLOAT = 68.
ACTIVITY 29-31 (al): START TIME = 80, DELAY relative to its EARLIEST START = 1,
FREE FLOAT = 1.
ACTIVITY 26-31 (an): START TIME = 54, DELAY relative to its EARLIEST START = 0,
FREE FLOAT = 26. FINISH preceding activities (u) must be moved back to time
54 (or earlier if possible).
Once a critical path is identified, the interest shifts to seeing where it is
possible to save time and where schedule can be allowed to slide for a while, if
it will be advantageous. Information that helps in solving this problem is
provided by the slacks or floats of the non-critical activities. In order to
calculate these floats, the earliest start and completion as well as the latest
start and completion must be known for each activity. This can be seen in the
table below.
The list of critical activities for the CPM includes;
Codes Names
1–2 Site clearing
2–3 Bringing of materials
3–4 Setting – out (pegging)
4–5 Excavation (including septic tank)
5–6 Placing of pillars
6–7 Blinding of foundation (including septic tank)
7–8 Forming of block work to DPC level (including septic tank)
8–9 Backfilling and ramering
9 – 11 Casting of German floor to DPC level
11 – 12 Placing of formwork and reinforcement for columns
12 – 13 Block work to lintel stage
13 – 14 Formwork for lintel and slabs (for septic tank)
14 – 15 Casting of columns, lintel and slab (for septic tank)
15 – 16 Leveling with block work
16 – 17 Carpentry work for roofing
17 – 19 Roofing with aluminum sheets
19 – 21 Setting of aluminum frames for windows
21 – 22 Fixing of doors and windows
22 – 23 Fixing of window protectors
23 – 24 Rendering of walls (inside)
24 – 25 Covering of septic tank with slabs
25 – 27 Flooring (with tiles)
27 – 28 Rendering of walls (outside)
27 – 29 Internal furnishing
28 – 31 Landscaping
29 – 30 Disposal of unwanted materials from site
30 – 31 Handover