Risk Assessment

Concept, Goal and Products,

Tools and Issues

Lecture # 6
Dr. Imam Khambali, ST. MPPM.
 Contents
1. Introduction & Definiton

2. Risk Analysis/Assessment Process

3. Goals and Products of Risk Analysis

4. Elements in Implementation.

1. Issues to be Considered in Implementing RA

2. Techniques to be used in Disaster Risk Assessment

Introduction & Definition
Introduction
 Risk analysis is based on the recognition that
risk is the result of the link between hazard and
vulnerability.
 The goal of risk analysis is to use this link to
estimate and evaluate the possible consequences
and impacts.
 This involves impacts at the social, economic and
environmental levels.
 Hazard and vulnerability analysis are parts of risk
analysis and are inseparable activities.
Hazard
A potentially damaging physical event,
phenomenon or human activity that may
cause the loss of life or injury, property
damage, social and economic disruption or
environmental degradation.

Each hazard is characterised by its

location, intensity, frequency and
probability.
Living with Risk, ISDR, 2004
Vulnerability & Capacity
 Vulnerability : The conditions determined by physical,
social, economic, and environmental factors or processes,
which increase the susceptibility of a community to the
impact of hazards.

 Capacity : A combination of all the strengths and

resources available within a community, society or
organization that can reduce the level of risk, or the
effects of a disaster.
 Capacity may include physical, institutional, social or
economic means as well as skilled personal or collective
attributes such as leadership and management.
Living with Risk, ISDR, 2004
Ancaman Bencana & Rawan Bencana
13. Ancaman bencana adalah suatu kejadian atau
peristiwa yang bisa menimbulkan bencana.

14. Rawan bencana adalah kondisi atau

karakteristik geologis, biologis, hidrologis,
klimatologis, geografis, sosial, budaya, politik,
ekonomi, dan teknologi pada suatu wilayah untuk
jangka waktu tertentu yang mengurangi
kemampuan mencegah, meredam, mencapai
kesiapan, dan mengurangi kemampuan untuk
menanggapi dampak buruk bahayatertentu.
UU 24/2007 TENTANG PB Pasal 1
Risk
 The probability of harmful consequences, or
expected losses (deaths, injuries, property,
livelihoods, economic activity disrupted or
environment damaged) resulting from interactions
between natural or human-induced hazards and
vulnerable conditions.

 Conventionally risk is expressed by the notation

Risk = Hazards x Vulnerability.
or Risk = Hazards x Vulnerability / Capacity
Living with Risk, ISDR, 2004
Risiko Bencana
17. Risiko bencana adalah potensi kerugian
yang ditimbulkan akibat bencana pada
suatu wilayah dan kurun waktu tertentu
yang dapat berupa kematian, luka, sakit,
jiwa terancam, hilangnya rasa aman,
mengungsi, kerusakan atau kehilangan
harta, dan gangguan kegiatan masyarakat.

UU 24/2007 TENTANG PB Pasal 1

NATIONAL EMERGENCY RISK ASSESSMENT (NERA) GUIDELINES SPECIFICATION , AUSTRALIA
 Nilai Resiko
 Resiko elemen (E): elemen yang beresiko bencana :
 Penduduk,
 Bangunan,
 Infrastruktur,
 Fasilitas penunjang vital kehidupan)

 Resiko Total (Rt) akibat bencana :

 Jumlah korban jiwa, jumlah korban cedera
 Kerusakan bangunan,
 Kerusakan Infrastruktur,
 Kerusakan Fasilitas penunjang vital kehidupan)
 Gangguan aktifitas ekonomi
R(t) = E . Rs = (E) . (H) . (V)
NATIONAL EMERGENCY RISK ASSESSMENT (NERA) GUIDELINES SPECIFICATION , AUSTRALIA
Disaster Risk Analysis/Assessement
as part of
disaster risk management process
Risk assessment/analysis
 A methodology to determine the
nature and extent of risk by analysing
potential hazards and evaluating
existing conditions of vulnerability that
could pose a potential threat or harm
to people, property, livelihoods and the
environment on which they depend.

Living with Risk, ISDR, 2004

Living with Risk, ISDR, 2004
 DRM Approach
Based on
disaster risk
management
framework

Living with Risk, ISDR, 2004

Risk Analysis/Assesment Process
Process
Risk analysis is a basic instrument of disaster risk management which is used
to study the factors of disaster risk and provides the basis for planning and
implementing measures to reduce risks and impacts of disasters.

Hazard Analysis

Vulnerability Analysis

Interpretation Risk Analysis

Living with Risk, ISDR, 2004
Hazard Analysis
 A hazard analysis investigates, identifies and documents
natural hazards (drought, floods, landslides, earthquakes,
etc.), their causes and impact chains.
 Hazard analysis describes and assesses the probability of
occurrence of an extreme natural event at a specific place,
at a specific time, and with a specific intensity and duration
for vulnerable population.
 Before this detailed study it is necessary to establish how
far population groups and their livelihood are potentially
affected.
 If there are no vulnerable populations or elements at the
site of hazard, no hazard analysis is required.
Hazard Analysis
Hazard analysis is not a linear sequence of analytical steps relating to the hazard. It is
constantly being interrupted by steps in vulnerability assessment.

Hazard analysis investigates the extreme natural

Extreme natural event, its characteristics, its force, its potential for
destruction and its likelihood of occurrence.
event as hazard

The information from these two analytical

gives rise to potentially steps is used to derive and evaluate the
damaging impact on probable damage

Vulnerability Assessment investigates the

Vulnerable people
vulnerability of people and their livelihoods to the
and their extreme natural event identified as a hazard.
livelihoods
The most important tasks and steps in Hazard Analysis

1. Identify the types of hazards. 1

2. Identification and characterisation of hazard prone locations.
3. Identification and determination of the probabilities of
occurrence on an ordinal scale (high - medium – low).
4. Estimate or calculate the scale (strength, magnitude) of the
hazard.
5. Identify the factors influencing the hazards (climate change,
environmental destruction and resource degradation, major
infrastructural facilities such as dams).
Vulnerability Analysis
 Vulnerability analysis studies the ability of a system (or element) to
withstand, avoid, neutralise or absorb the impacts of hazardous natural
events.
 Without extreme natural events as a hazard, there are no vulnerable
elements, and hence no hazard.
 Vulnerabilities are created, they are the product of social development
or faulty development.
 Vulnerability is assessed by the potential loss resulting from a natural
event.
 Damage can be to:
 Population (life, health and wellbeing)
 Material assets (buildings, infrastructure)
 Natural assets (woods, forests, agricultural land)
The most important tasks and steps in Vulnerability Analysis
1. Identification of potentially vulnerable elements.
2. Collecting basic data on:
 Population: age, density, gender, ethnic structure, socioeconomic status.
 Location: buildings, important facilities (schools, hospitals, emergency centres),
environment, economy, structure, history.
 Self-protection capability: capacities for disaster preparedness, emergency response,
training, prevention programmes, early warning systems.

3. Analysis of factors influencing or resulting in vulnerability: Physical, social,

economic and environmental vulnerability factors. 1

4. Development of indicators for identifying vulnerabilities and estimating the degree

of vulnerability.
5. Analysis of self-protection capabilities.
6. Identification of indicators to show or measure capacity for preparedness.
7. Estimate of accepted risk and residual risk.
Elements at risk
 Building Stock
 Critical Facilities
 Transportation Systems
 Lifeline Utility Systems
 Communications Systems and Networks
 High Potential Loss Facilities
 Hazardous Material Facilities
 Economic Elements.
 Special Consideration Areas
 Historic, Cultural, and Natural Resource Areas
 Etc.
Goals and Products of Risk Analysis
Goals and Products of Risk Analysis
Risk analysis is not a static one-time process, but a dynamic process which is
constantly adjusting to changing vulnerabilities, hazards and risks.

Awareness Raising
Analysis of
vulnerability and
capabilities Use of concrete measure:
• Prevention, preparation
• Early warning systems
• Environmental management
Information from
Risk Analysis • Land use planning
emergency aid and • Spatial planning
reconstruction • Cooperation, alliances
• Financing instruments
• Poverty reduction
Hazard analysis
and monitoring
Early Warning Capacity building:
• Policy development
• Legislation, norms
• Community development
Goals of Risk Analysis
 Identify participative possible hazards and vulnerabilities of population groups to
natural events.
 Estimate and assess the probability of occurrence and the possible potential
damage
 Identify and study possible weaknesses and gaps in existing protective and
adaptive strategies.
 Formulate realistic recommendations for measures to overcome weaknesses and
reduce the identified and assessed disaster risks.
 Ensure and enhance the feasibility, effect and efficiency of protective measures.
 Contribute to the recommendations of the World Conference on Natural Disaster
Reduction (Yokohama, 1994), the Hyogo Framework (2005) and Agenda 21.
 Contribute to spatial and land use planning.
 Contribute to planning for emergency aid measures.
 Improve coordination and linkages
 Integrate disaster risk management (DRM) to the various areas of development.
How do we define acceptable level of risk
Hazard Exposure Vulnerability Risk

Acceptable RISK
HAZARD
Geoscience Australia
 Strategy on accepatable level of risk
Protection target for Protection target for non-physical
Occurrence
structural design disaster protection measures
probability
(external force level 2) (external force level 3)

Preventing Reducing damage Limit of disaster protection

damage
The higher the asset concentration,
the nearer to the maximum
permissible risk

Acceptable risk Maximum permissible risk

Structural based
Measures
Massive disaster
(Physical disaster
protection measure)

Information-based
measures
(Non-physical disaster
protection measure
Scale of
external
force

Extremely severe damage

No damage Serious damage

SATGAS ACEH-ITB IWS (WCDR, 2005)

Elements in Implementation
DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT (DRM)
Risk Analysis DRM Measures

Disaster Preparedness
Hazard Analysis Vulnerability analysis
mitigation for disaster

Geographical Identification of Analysis of Planning Emergency

analysis: elements and people at self-protection measures. plans.
Location risk. capabilities.
Extent Identification of Development of Physical Early warning
Temporal analysis: vulnerability factors strategies and preventative systems.
Frequency and causes: measures at measures.
Duration Physical different levels: Evacuation
Probability of Social Family Capacity plans.
occurrence Economic Village building,
Dimensional Environmental Community
analysis creating
Assessment of
Scale institutional
possible damage/loss.
Intensity measures
Issues to be considered in implementing RA
Criteria for Determining Methods and
Instruments
The following questions should be explored before carrying out a RA:

 Is there political commitment to DRM?

 Are preventive measure politically acknowledged?
 Is there financing for implementing measures derived from RA?
 Does a cost-benefit assessment indicate a positive social benefit?
 Or is RA more expensive than possible damage?
 Is the starting point an emergency aid measure?
 Is there an institutional and statutory basis for DRM and RA?
 Are there developing and/or poverty reduction strategies?
 Is the affected population motivated and interested in self-help?
Critical Issues
Political Commitment:
 Defined institutional responsibilities for disaster management.
 Political framework that permits democratic consultation and cooperation.

Results of RA:
 Resources capable of mobilisation, implementation and application.
 Results taken into account in spatial and land use planning.

Cultural Acceptability:
 Promotion of self-organisation by affected population.
 Promotion of traditional of local and traditional knowledge.

Ownership and Personal Initiative:

 Emergency and food aid shipments undermining local resources.
Critical Issues
Interests and Perceptions:
 Transparent information.
 Disclosure and discussion.
 Clarification of interests and roles.

Levels and Contexts:

 Aim to reduce disaster risk at: local, national or regional level?
 Product intended for: community (implementation), technical agency (research
and analysis), financial institutions (cost-benefit analysis, profitability) or insurance
company (tariffs)?

Inputs for Data Collection:

 Over emphasis on data input or data which cannot be used later.
 Little time and resources for evaluation and formulation of planning statements.
 Less emphasis on agreement with actors on subsequent implementation.
Tingkatan Risk Assessment ?
 National level ?
 Provincial level ?
 District level (Kabupaten/Kota) ?
 Community level :
 Kecamatan ?
 Kelurahan/desa ?
 Neighborhood (Dusun, RW, RT) ?
 beberapa wilayah administratif bertetangga ? (Contoh
di USA DMA Act 2000, multi-jurisdictional DMP)
 Tingkatan RA yang berbeda akan menggunakan
teknik analisis yang berbeda !
Modality of implementation
Government conducted or
participatory/community process?
Outsourced (expert consultant) –
inhouse resources ?
Detailed analysis or “dirty” method
approach?
Risk analysis tools?
 Techniques Used in
Disaster Risk Assessment
(Disaster Assessment Portal - UN HABITAT
 (Non-exhaustive) List of Disaster Risk
Assessment Techniques
 Access model
 A model that explores how an individual or groups relative
resilience to disasters is impacted by differences in access to the
economic or political resources needed to secure a livelihood.
 Computer assisted techniques
 The use of computer software programs to automate steps of the
risk management process. For example the use of GIS and
remote sensing has allowed hazard mapping to become more
comprehensive.
 Cost-benefit analysis
 A process used to select countermeasures, by balancing the
costs of implementing each option against the benefits derived
from it. In general, the cost of managing risks needs to be equal
to the benefits gained from putting the countermeasures in place.
 Disaster risk indexing
 A quantitative analysis technique that uses statistical indicators
to measure and compare risk variables.
 (Non-exhaustive) List of Disaster Risk
Assessment Techniques
 Environmental impact assessment (EIA)
 A policymaking tool that provides information on the
environmental impacts of activities.
 Event-tree analysis (ETA)
 A consequence based analysis in which an event either has or
has not happened or a component has or has not failed. An
event tree begins with an initiating event. The consequences of
the event are followed through a series of possible paths. Each
path is assigned a probability of occurrence and the
probability of the various possible outcomes can be
calculated.
 Failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA)
 An analytical technique, which explores the effects of failures
or malfunctions of individual components in a system - i.e. "If
this part fails, in this manner, what will be the result?" The
level of risk is determined by: Risk = probability of failure x
severity category
 (Non-exhaustive) List of Disaster Risk
Assessment Techniques
 Fault-tree analysis (FTA)
 This is a graphical technique that provides a description of the
combinations of possible occurrences in a system, which can result
in an undesirable outcome. The most serious outcome is selected
and called the Top Event. The analysis proceeds by determining how
these top events can be caused by individual or combined lower
level failures or events.
 Geographic information system (GIS) mapping
 The use of a geographic information system, a computer-based tool,
for risk or hazard mapping. GIS technology integrates database
operations with the geographic analysis benefits offered by maps.
 Geospatial analysis
 Analysis of risk information by distance, area, volume or any other
spatial characteristic within geographic boundaries through GIS and
hazard mapping techniques.
 Hazard mapping
 The process of mapping hazard information within a study area of
varying scale, coverage, and detail.
 (Non-exhaustive) List of Disaster Risk
Assessment Techniques
 Historical analysis
 The analysis of historical information to determine levels of risk based
on past experiences.
 Impact analysis
 The practice of identifying and evaluating the negative and positive
consequences of disasters on natural and human systems (i.e.,
environment, economic, financial, and social). Includes methodologies
and standards for damage and needs assessments.
 Inductive analysis
 The analysis of risk by integrating layers of information (e.g.,
visualizing disaster information in relation to other socio-economic
parameters by geographical features such as administrative units,
ecological zones, towns and streets) in GIS techniques.
 Participatory analysis
 A risk analysis which includes the affected people in defining problems
and needs, deciding solutions to them, implementing agreed activities
to achieve those solutions and/or evaluating the results.
 (Non-exhaustive) List of Disaster Risk
Assessment Techniques
 Pressure and release model
 The starting point of the pressure and release model is that a
disaster is the intersection of two opposing forces: the process
generating vulnerability on one side, and the physical exposure
to hazard on the other. Increasing pressure can come from
either side but vulnerability has to be reduced to relieve the
pressure. Vulnerability is considered in three levels: root
causes, dynamic pressures and unsafe conditions.
 Qualitative analysis
 Analysis that uses words rather than numbers to describe and
measure the magnitude of potential consequences and the
likelihood that those consequences will occur. These scales can
be adapted or adjusted to suit the circumstances, and different
descriptions may be used for different risks.
 Quantitative analysis
 Analysis that uses numerical values (rather than the descriptive
scales used in qualitative and semi-quantitative analysis) for
both consequences and likelihood. The quality of the analysis
depends on the accuracy and completeness of the numerical
values and the validity of the models used.
 (Non-exhaustive) List of Disaster Risk
Assessment Techniques
 Remote sensing
 Remote sensing refers to the process of recording
information from sensors mounted either on aircraft or on
satellites. The technique is applicable to natural hazards
management because nearly all geologic, hydrologic, and
atmospheric phenomena are recurring events or
processes that leave evidence of their previous
occurrence.
 Risk mapping
 A risk map is a map of a community or geographical zone
that identifies the places and the structures that might be
adversely affected in the event of a hazard.
 Semi-quantitative analysis
 In semi-quantitative analysis, qualitative scales are given
values. The objective is to produce a more expanded
ranking scale than is usually achieved in qualitative
analysis, not to suggest realistic values for risk such as is
attempted in quantitative analysis.
 (Non-exhaustive) List of Disaster Risk
Assessment Techniques
 Social survey
 A survey to provide information to establish the context in
which the risk assessment will take place and the criteria
against which risk will be evaluated. Decisions concerning
whether risk treatment is required may also be based on
operational, technical, financial, legal, environmental,
humanitarian or other criteria for which additional surveys
will be required.
 SWOT analysis
 A tool used in the assessment of organizations to capture
and identify the organization’s geographic and
programmatic scope of action, perceived effectiveness
and level of acceptance and support by community
members and local institutions. The analysis is broken
down into Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and
Threats.
 (Non-exhaustive) List of Disaster Risk
Assessment Techniques
 Temporal analysis
 The basis of a temporal analytical technique is the
assumption that observed patterns arise from an
underlying process. Modeling this underlying
process allows for the estimation of impacts which
best transform a map at time t into that at time t + 1.
 Vulnerabilities analysis matrix
 A practical and diagnostic tool in the form of a
simple matrix which measures vulnerabilities and
capacities in three broad and interrelated areas (i.e.,
physical/material, social/organizational, and
motivational/attitudinal). Other factors are added to
the matrix to reflect a complex reality such as
disaggregation by gender or economic factors,
changes over time, different scales etc.)
 (Non-exhaustive) List of Disaster Risk
Assessment Techniques
 Scenario analysis :
 Deterministic approach
 Probabilistic approach
 Contoh Scenario Analysis : RADIUS Tool
Teknik/metoda RA yang
mana yang akan kita
adopsi untuk pedoman
kita?
Contoh-Contoh Risk Assessment
Method
Pedoman DMP dari FEMA
CONTENT :
Risk Assessment Process- LMHMPG
“Hazard Mitigation Plan Made Easy”,
Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency
“Hazard Mitigation Plan Made Easy”,
Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency
Hazard-Vulnerability Analysis
menggunakan Risk MAtrix
Contoh Scenario based Risk Analysis
untuk Climate Change
dengan analysis semi-quantitative
Scenario: Inundation to 0.5 metres above MSL
Location: Nikau Bay

 Scenario: Inundation to 0.5 m above MSL (i.e.

to just above most house floor levels) for 100
m inland (i.e. the first two rows of houses
behind the beach), but no major erosion.

 The Regional Policy Statement has a planning

horizon of 100 years (therefore, likelihood is
evaluated in time steps up to 100 years).
Likelihood:
Likely > 100 years
Possible 75-100 years
Unlikely 25-75 years
Rare 0-25 years
Impact/consequence:
Human:
 No loss of life, possible injury
 Possibly elderly people trapped in their homes
Economic:
 Negative impact upon regional reputation and tourism industry
Social:
 Temporary loss of access through the main access road
Infrastructural:
 Water supply possible contamination, wastewater possible
leakage (public health risk)
 Damage and disruption to road (temporary disruption to access
in and out)
Geographic:
 Possible wastewater contamination of streams in the bay
 Level of impact for locality/hazard scenario
Designation Impact
1 Catastrophic
2 Major
3 Moderate
4 Minor
5 Insignificant
Examples
• Huge financial losses involving many people and/or corporations and/or local
government
 Large long-term loss of services
 Permanent loss of many people's homes; large-scale loss of employment
 Loss of life or serious injury
• Major financial losses for many individuals and/or a few corporations
 Some long-term impacts on services
 Some homes permanently lost
 Complete loss of an important natural environment
 Serious injury
• High financial losses, probably for multiple owners
 Disruption of services for several days; people displaced from their homes for
several weeks; major impacts on valued natural environment
• Moderate financial losses for small number of owners; disruption of services for
a day or two; moderate distress to some individuals; some impacts on significant
natural environment
• Minimal financial losses; short-term inconvenience
 Likelihood of scenario occurring
within the selected planning horizon
Designation Frequency Description IPCC definition
Virtually certain (> 99% chance that
a result is true)
A Almost Is expected to happen, Very likely (90-99%)
certain perhaps more than once
B Likely Will probably happen Likely (66-90%)
C Possible Might occur; 50/50 chance Medium (33-66%)
D Unlikely Unlikely to occur, but Unlikely (10-33%)
possible
E Rare Highly unlikely, but Very unlikely (1-10%)
conceivable
Exceptionally unlikely (<1%)
Risk table
Year Consequence

Likelihood 1 Catastrophic 2 Major 3 Moderate 4 Minor 5 Insignificant

A (almost certain) E E E H M

B (likely) E E H H M

C (possible) E E H M L

D (unlikely) E H M L L

E (rare) H H M L None
Legend:

 E: Extreme risk; immediate action required

 H: High risk; high priority for action, begin
planning as soon as practicable
 M: Moderate risk; include in response
planning, but lower priority.
 L: Low risk; minimal action likely to be
required; monitor the situation
 None: Negligible risk; no response required
Contoh RADIUS Scenario Analysis
RADIUS CASE STUDY
(Risk Assessment Tools for Diagnostic of Urban Areas Against Seismic Disaster)

Amankah Kota Bandung

terhadap Bahaya Gempabumi?

 Bagian dari International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR)

tahun 1991-2000 yang disponsori UN
 Dilaksanakan oleh Pemerintah Kota Bandung bekerja sama dengan Lembaga
Penelitian ITB
 Tujuan Studi RADIUS : menghasilkan suatu gambaran skenario kejadian
gempa dan tingkat risiko yang dapat timbul akibat gempa dan menyusun suatu
rencana penanggulangan bencana serta rencana tindak lanjut (action plans)
untuk DRR gempabumi di Kota Bandung
 240

220
PETA-PETA HAZARDS
200 HASIL STUDI RADIUS
180

160
PGA (gal)

140

120

100

80

60
Crouse
40 Joyner & Boore
20 Total
0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

Return period (year)

Seismic Hazard Curve (Sengara et. al, 2000)
Peta mikrozonasi seismik yang menunjukkan
distribusi PGA

Peta Potensi Longsor

Peta Potensi Liquifaksi
 PETA-PETA KERUSAKAN HASIL STUDI RADIUS

Peta Kerusakan Bangunan Peta Kerusakan Jalan

Peta Kerusakan Jaringan Listrik Peta Kerusakan Jaringan Pipa Peta Kerusakan Jaringan
Primer PDAM Telekomunikasi
SKENARIO GEMPA KOTABANDUNG
Jika gempa 200 tahunan terjadi di kota Bandung, apa yang terjadi?
Berdasarkan skenario gempa terjadi siang hari,
(hasil studi PMB-ITB –Pemkot Bandung dalam IUDMP-RADIUS tahun 1999):

 Diperkirakan akan terjadi 5 type kerusakan bangunan:

 Aman
 Kerusakan ringan
 Kerusakan berat
 Setengah runtuh
 Runtuh

 Cibeunying Kaler diperkirakan mengalami 9020 rumah tinggal mengalami kerusakan

ringan, 4820 kerusakan berat. Bojongloa Kaler menderita paling parah dengan 8350an
rumah tinggal setengah runtuh dan 8030an lainnya runtuh total.

 Korban jiwa diperkirakan mencapai 2640 dan 21170 mengalami luka berat dari total
2.4juta jiwa penduduk.

 Kerusakan dan kerugian infrastruktur dan terhenti/terganggunya kegiatan ekonomi

Contoh Risk Assessment Jawa Barat
Proses Kajian Risiko

Risk (R) = H (Hazard) x V (Vulnerability)

 Komponen Hazard/ Bahaya (H)

 Geografis
 Skala/ Intensitas
 Probabilitas/ Kemungkinan kejadian

 Komponen Vulnerability/ kerentanan (V)

 Jumlah Penduduk
 Kepadata Penduduk
 Prosentase daerah terbangun (developed area)
 Kemampuan untuk merespon
No. Faktor Risiko Tingkat Jenis Faktor Risiko
Kecepatan
1 Gempa bumi Quick Onset Geofisik
2 Gerakan tanah/longsor Slow & Quick Onset Geofisik
3 Banjir Quick Onset Hidrometeorologi
4 Kekeringan Slow Onset Hidrometeorologi
5 Kebakaran Kota Quick Onset Teknologi
6 Kebakaran Lahan Quick Onset Hidrometeorologi
7 Letusan Gunung api Quick Onset Geofisik
8 Angin Kencang Quick Onset Hidrometeorologi
9 Wabah penyakit Quick Onset Biologi
10 Pencemaran Slow Onset Lingkungan
11 Kegagalan Teknologi Quick Onset Teknologi
12 Konflik/Kerusuhan Quick Onset Sosial
13 Tsunami Quick Onset Geofisik
14 Air pasang/Rob Quick Onset Hidrometeorologi
15 Bahaya Petir Quick Onset Hidrometeorologi
16 Debris Flow/Banjir bandang Slow Onset Hidrometeorologi
17 Abrasi/Erosi Slow Onset Hidrometeorologi
18 Kecelekaan Transportasi Quick Onset Teknologi
19 Gizi buruk Slow Onset Sosial
20 Gangguan Hama Slow Onset Biologi
21 Terorisme Quick Onset Sosial
 Komponen Hazard/Bahaya

Geografi Skala /Intensitas Probabilitas / Kemungkinan

kejadian
Prosentase perbandingan Besaran rata-rata propinsi Jumlah kejadian yang merusak dalam
antara luas daerah yang intensitas bahaya kurun waktu tertentu
terancam dengan luas
propinsi

0-20 % 1 Sangat rendah 1 (VHF) Sangat sering, kejadian 5

20-40% 2 Rendah 2 yg terjadi >1 dlm 5 thn.
40-60% 3 Sedang 3 (HF) Sering, kejadian yg terjadi
60-80% 4 Tinggi 4 >1 dlm 10 thn. 4
80-100% 5 Sangat timggi 5 (MF) Sedang, kejadian yg terjadi
1x dlm 10 thn-1x dlm 100 thn.
3
(LF) Jarang, kejadian yg terjadi
1x dlm 100 thn-1x dlm 1000 thn.
(VLF) Sangat jarang, kejadian 2
yg terjadi <1 dlm 1000 thn.

1
 Komponen Kerentanan/ Vulnerability

Jumlah Kepadatan % Daerah terbangun Kemampuan untuk merespon

penduduk Penduduk (Kawasan industri
dan pemukiman)
Prosentase Jumlah kepadatan Prosentase daerah Kemampuan merespon instansi
perbandingan penduduk yang terancam terbangun yang propinsi atas ancaman yang ada
antara jumlah dibandingkan dengan terancam dibandingkan
penduduk yang jumlah kepadatan dengan luas daerah
terancam penduduk propinsi terbangun propinsi
dengan jumlah
penduduk
propinsi
0-20 % 1 <0.536 jw/ha 1 0-20 % = 1 Sangat baik = 1
20-40% 2 0.536-1.22 jw/ha 2 20-40% = 2 Baik = 2
40-60% 3 1.22-2.44 jw/ha 3 40-60% = 3 Sedang = 3
60-80% 4 2.44-4.44 jw.ha 4 60-80% = 4 Buruk =4
80-100% 5 >4.44 jw/ha 5 80-100%= 5 Sangat buruk = 5
Matriks Risiko
Faktor Risiko Yang Ditinjau

No. Faktor Risiko No. Faktor Risiko

1. Gempa bumi 12. Konflik/Kerusuhan
2. Gerakan tanah/Longsor 13. Tsunami
3. Banjir 14. Air Pasang/Rob
4. Kekeringan 15. Bahaya Petir
5. Kebakaran Kota 16. Debris Flow/Banjir Bandang
6. Kebakaran Lahan 17. Abrasi/Erosi
7. Letusan Gunung Api 18. Kecelakaan Transportasi
8. Angin Kencang 19. Gizi buruk
9. Wabah Penyakit 20. Gangguan hama
10. Pencemaran 21. Terorisme
11. Kegagalan Teknologi 22. Sabotase
 Matriks Risiko

5
Kebakaran lahan Banjir Gempa bumi
Kekeringan Gerakan tanah /
Pencemaran longsor
4 Air pasang/Rob Wabah penyakit
Abrasi/Erosi
Bahaya (Hazard)

Bahaya petir Kebakaran kota

Kecelakaan Angin Kencang
3 Transportasi Konflik / Kerusuhan
Gizi Buruk Debris Flow / Banjir
Gangguan hama Bandang
Letusan Gunung Api Tsunami Terorisme
2 Sabotase

Kegagalan
teknologi
1

1 2 3 4 5
Kerentanan (Vulnerability)
 Kategori Risiko

Faktor Risiko Nilai Tingkat Risiko Tindakan

Risiko

- 20-25 Kelas A : Sangat tinggi Mitigasi menyeluruh dan

kontingensi planning
mendesak disusun dan
dilaksanakan.
Gempa bumi, Gerakan tanah / longsor, Wabah 15-20 Kelas B:Tinggi-Sangat Mitigasi menyeluruh dan
penyakit tinggi kontingensi planning harus
segera disusun dan
dilaksanakan.
Banjir, Kekeringan, Pencemaran, Air pasang / 10-15 Kelas C: Sedang - Tinggi Kondisi risiko yang cukup
Rob, Abrasi / Erosi tinggi dipertimbangkan
untuk perencanaan dan
mitigasi lebih lanjut.
Kebakaran Lahan, Bahaya Petir, Kecelakaan 5-10 Kelas D: Sedang - Kondisi risiko rendah
Transportasi, Gizi Buruk, Gangguan hama, Rendah dengan tambahan mitigasi
Kebakaran Kota, Angin Kencang, Konflik / dan kontigensi planning
Kerusuhan, Debris Flow / Banjir Bandang, sebagai saran.
Terorisme, Sabotase
Letusan Gunung Api, Tsunami, Kegagalan 1-5 Kelas E: Rendah – Kondisi risiko yang sangat
Teknologi Sangat rendah rendah namun rencana
Hasil Kajian Risiko Tingkat Provinsi Jawa Barat
 Hasil Kajian Risiko Wilayah Cekungan Bandung
K ota B andung K ota C imahi
20.0 14.0
18.0 12.0
16.0 18.0
14.0 16.0 16.5 10.0 11.9 11.3
12.0 14.7 14.7 8.0
10.0 6.0 8.7
8.0 7.6
6.0 4.0 6.5
4.0 5.0 4.2 0.0
4.3 0.0 4.0 2.0
2.0 0.0
0.0
i t jir n i
i t jir n i m .. ki
an ga an ob s
m .. ak
i a an ob s bu /L
.
ny
a
in ar /R
ro
bu L. an ng ar ro B
er m i/
E
y B ri /R E pa ah
e ce g
as
pa
/ en e e m g i/ em
P ek en an
h P ek nc an as ta
n h K s br
em na br
G ba P Pa A
G ta ah K P
e as A an a ir
n ab ir
P ak W A
a er
ak W A G
er
G

14.0
K abupaten B andung B arat
 Gempa bumi
 Gerakan tanah
12.0
10.0 11.7 12.0
8.0 10.0 9.8
6.0 8.3 7.3

 Wabah
4.0 6.0
2.0 0.0
0.0

Penyakit
i

ir

an

an
it

i
ob
m

os
nj
ak
...
bu

ar
g

/R
Ba

Er
rin
/L

ny

em

i/
pa

Pe

ke

g
ah

s
an
nc
em

ra
Ke
n

ah

Pe
 Banjir
as

Ab
ta
G

ab

rP
an

Ai
ak
er
G

 Kekeringan
 Pencemaran
 Air pasang/rob
 Usulan Metoda Penyusunan
PEDOMAN KAJIAN RISIKO
BENCANA (ALAM?)
Keputusan-keputusan yang harus
diambil sebelumnya
 Siapa target pengguna pedoman :
 Propinsi, kabupaten/kota, komunitas
 Staf instansi pemerintah, konsultan, expert
(academic)
 Seberapa dalam kajian risiko/analisis risiko
yang dikehendaki
 Apa unit analisis yang digunakan :
 Batas geografis
 Batas administrasi pemerintahan :
 Propinsi?
 Kabupaten
 Kecamatan
 Desa
 PROSES PENYUSUNAN PEDOMAN KAJIAN RISIKO BENCANA
No Kegiatan Bulan 1 Bulan 2 Bulan 3 Bulan 4
Minggu 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 1 2 3 4 5 6

1 Persiapan x x
2 Pemahaman Bentuk Pedoman dan Kedalaman x x x x
Analisis Risiko Yang Dibutuhkan
3 Pemilihan Model Risiko yang Sesuai x x

4 Pemilihan Jenis Risiko yang ditinjau x x

5 Pemilihan Indikator H, V, C x x

6 Cara Penentuan Besaran-besaran Indikator x x x x

7 Metoda Pembobotan dan Skoring Indikator, x x x x

Perhitungan Nilai Risiko, Metoda Evaluasi
Resiko, Risk Level Category
8 Metoda Penyajian dan Pemetaan Risiko x x

9 Struktur Pedoman Kajian Risiko Bencana dan x x x

Templates
10 Pelaporan x x
x
Terima kasih