STATISTICS for

B.com., (TIME SERIES

ANALYSIS’01)
SLIDES PREPARED
By
K.BARANIDHARAN.M.com.,M.B.A.,M.Phil.,Ph.D.
IDHAYA COLLEGE FOR WOMEN
BHARATHIDASAN UNIVERSITY
TAMILN AUD

K. 12/08/2021
BARANIDHARAN 4-1
 baranibarani50@yahoo.com
dharanbarani21@gmail.com

12/08/2021 K. BARANIDHARAN 2
Introduction

• A time series consists of data arranged

chronologically
• “A time series consists of statistical data
which are collected, recorded or observed
over successive increments”. – Patterson
• The analysis of time series is important not
only to businessmen and economists but
also to scientists, social scientists
biologists, management consultants etc.,
because of the following reasons:
• It helps in the analysis of past behaviour of a
variable.
• It helps in forecasting and planning.
• It helps in evaluation of current achievement.
• It helps in making comparative studies.
• It helps in decision-making.
MEASUREMENT OF TREND: FOUR METHODS
1.Free-hand or Graphic method
2.Semi-average method
3.Moving Average method
4.Method of Least Squares
Time series analysis

LEAST SQUARE
1)Calculate trend value from the following data
using the Method of Least Square

year productio
n
1994 7

1995 9

1996 12

1997 15

1998 18

1999 23
 year Production Time x2 xy Trend
Y deviation value
from 1996.5 (comput
X ed)
1994 7 -2.5 6.25 -17.5 6.15

1995 9 -1.5 2.25 -13.5 9.29

1996 12 -0.5 0.25 -6.0 12.43

1997 15 0.5 0.25 7.5 15.57

1998 18 1.5 2.25 27.0 18.71

1999 23 2.5 6.25 57.5 21.85

N=6 Y = 84 x2 xy =

= 17.50 55

7 12/08/2021 K. BARANIDHARAN
• Since x = 0,

• Hence,
• Yc = a + bx
• Y1994 = 14+3.14 (-2.5)
• = 14-7.85 = 6.15
• Y1995 = 14+3.14 (-1.5) = 14-4.71 = 9.29
• Y1996 = 14+3.14 (-0.5) = 14-1.57 = 12.43
• Y1997 = 14+3.14 (0.5) = 14-1.57 = 15.57
• Y1998 = 14+3.14 (1.5) = 14-4.71 = 18.71
• Y1999 = 14+3.14 (2.5) = 14-7.85 = 21.85
 THANK YOU

12/08/2021 K. BARANIDHARAN 9