Probability Concepts

Chapter 2

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 Probability
• Is the chance that something will happen.
Probabilities are expressed as
– Fractions
– Decimals between 0 and 1
• Probability of zero-something can never happen
• Probability of one-something will always happen

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 Events and Experiments
• Event- is one or more of the possible
outcomes of doing something
– ex. Getting Tail or Head
• Experiment-activity that produces an event
– Ex. Tossing a coin
• Sample Space
– Set of all possible outcomes of an experiment
– Ex. S= (Head, Tail)
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 Mutually Exclusive
• Mutually exclusive
– If one and only one of them can take place at a
time
• Not mutually exclusive
– If two or more events occur at one time
• Collectively exhaustive events
– List of possible events that can result from an
experiment and this list includes all possible
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 Three Types of Probability
• The classical approach
– Defines probability that an event will occur as
Probability of an event= number of outcomes favorable to the
occurence of the event
total number of possible outcomes
P (heads) =1/1+1 =1/2
Exercise:
What is the probability of rolling a 5 on a die
How about probability of picking a King in a deck of cards?

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• The Relative frequency of occurrence
– This method uses relative frequencies of past
occurences as probabilities, either
– 1. a proportion of times that an event occurs in
the long run when conditions are stable
– 2. the observe relative frequency of an event in
a large number of trials

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• Example
– Suppose that your college admission office
knows from past data that about 50 of its 1,000
entering freshmen usually leave school for
academic reasons by end of semester. Compute
for the probability

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• Subjective Probabilities
– Based on the personal belief or feeling of the
person who makes the probability estimate
– The decision maker may use whatever evidence
is available and temper this with their own
special feelings about the situation
– Ex. Selecting new employee, narrowed down
into three (all three have high level energy,high
self-confidence, impressive records)
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 Probability Rules
• Concerned with two situations
– When one event or another will occur
– When two or more events will all occur

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Some Commonly used symbols,
definitions and rules
• P(A)
– Probability of event A happening
Marginal probability- only one event can take
place
Ex. 10 computer programmers have an equal
chance of being promoted to programming
supervisor

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 Venn Diagram- pictorial
representation of probability
concepts

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 Additional rule for mutually
exclusive events
• P ( A or B)
– Probability of either A or B happening
– Calculated as P(A or B) =P (A) +P(B)
– Example : fifty welders in fabrication shop
Years of Experience Number Probability
0-2 5 5/50 =.1
3-5 10 10/50=.2
6-8 15 15/50=.3
More than 8 20 20/50=.4
Total 50 15
 What is the probability that a welder selected at
random will have 6 or more years of experience?

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 Solution
• P ( 6 or more) =P(6 to 8) + P (more than 8)
» = .3 +.4
» =.7

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 Events that are not mutually
exclusive
• P (A or B)= P(A)+(P(B)-P(A and B)
• Ex. City council composed of 5 persons
person sex age
1 Male 31
2 Male 33
3 Female 46
4 Female 29
5 Male 41

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• If the council will decide to elect a
chairperson in random draw, what is the
probability that the chairperson will either
be female or over 35?

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 Solution
• P(female or over 35)=P(female)+P(over 35)-P(female and over 35
• =2/5 +2/5-1/5
• = 3/5
• =.6

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 Quiz No. 2
• Given the folIowing details: males with age
47,45,51 and females with age 39 and 65 ,if
the Committee for Recommendations will
decide to select a Dean in random draw,
what is the probability that the Dean will
either be male or over 48 ?

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