Pakistan and US War on Terror

Outline
• Introduction
• The incalculable cost of terror
• War on terror aid
• Pakistan Duplicity,
• Bajwa Doctrine
• Conclusion
 Introduction
• War on terror started after 9-11, 2001and
Pakistan was a frontline state and most allied
ally, non-NATO ally of the USA.
• Pakistan had to take a U-turn on its afghan
policy as previously, we were supporting
Taliban and the first country to recognize that
government.
•
 The incalculable cost of terror
• According to reliable studies, the human
fatalities of war against terror in 2015 were in
excess of 80,000, a number that has surely
risen since then.
• The war eroded investor confidence and
adversely effected Pakistan’s economy.
• It is assessed, that since 2001 the country has
suffered capital losses equivalent to, or in
excess of, $130 billion.
 The incalculable cost of terror
• The much-touted international assistance only
accounted for a fraction of these losses and the
intensity of conflict directly affected the GDP
growth of the country that saw the sharpest dip
between 2008-10.
• Due to dwindling investor confidence, there was
also a sharp decline in FDI levels. After May
1998, the inflow of FDI into Pakistan touched its
lowest level at $322 million in 2000-01.
 The incalculable cost of terror
• In the aftermath of 9/11, the situation
improved slightly and FDI touched $5,410.2
million in 2007-08.
• The financial crisis in the US coupled with the
war at home saw FDI again dip to $3,719.9
million in 2010 and at present it stands at a
mere $2,761 million.
 The incalculable cost of terror
• Another tangible effect has been a rising trend in
inflation and the depreciation of rupee because of
the slowdown of economic activities.
• Over the last 17 years, inflation alarmingly
increased to 21% in 2008-09 from 10.3% in 2007-
08.
• Core inflation rate since 2010 has averaged at
7.54%, and the rupee continues to face relentless
pressure in the international market.
 The incalculable cost of terror
• In a society where education and critical
thinking have largely been curtailed, such a
war further complicates the growing trends and
patterns of radicalization with acute fallout in
the psychological and social realm.
• Due to military operations in various parts of
K-P and Fata, 2.7 to 3.5 million people were
displaced — considered as the largest internal
displacement in Pakistan’s history.
 The incalculable cost of terror
• Local residents, particularly women and children
of the conflict areas, suffered critical physical and
psychological abuse and trauma due to this
dislodgment.
• This has severely impacted national productivity,
creativity, entrepreneurship and youth personal
development.
• Severe mental illness has also been associated
with health risk factors to the extent that the
WHO has predicted that depression will soon
become the second leading cause of death.
 The incalculable cost of terror
• From 2001 to 2011, the country witnessed an
almost 100% increase in the incidence of
mental illness.
• These findings suggest that living under the
threat of a potential terrorist attack is powerful
enough to interfere with the daily functioning
of the population, regardless of an individual’s
actual exposure to such trauma.
 The incalculable cost of terror
• While exact figures on suicides related to
PTSD from terrorism may not be available,
psychiatrists agree that these numbers have
increased manifold in the last decade.
• Education is another area hit hard by terrorism.
Militants attacked and destroyed a number of
schools in Fata and K-P as a strategy to lead
the youth of the area astray.
 The incalculable cost of terror
• Militants attacked 119 schools in 2008, 188 in
2009, 129 in 2010 and 142 in 2011.
• In Swat, 401 schools were destroyed in 2010-11.
• The tuition fee subsequently rose in other
institutions due to hiring of security personnel to
maintain a notion of security for children at
schools.
• Unofficial estimates say this cost of security rose
exponentially after the APS massacre of 2014.
 The incalculable cost of terror
• Intolerance, brain drain, loss of tourism,
increase in crime rate and unemployment are
just few of the other menaces that have been
direct byproducts of the war on terror.
• It has been a war of survival and Pakistan will
be seen on the right side of history as it is
chronicled, however, we cannot afford this
much longer and the terror must be quelled
swiftly and perpetually.
 War on terror aid
• Pakistan received $33.4bn from US during the
past 15 years.
• 44% ($14.573) billion of which was on account
of services that Islamabad rendered to support
US’s anti-terror operations in Afghanistan of
logistics and aerial support (CSF).
• The civilian and security-related aid to
Pakistan from 2002 to 2016 was only $18.8
billion (56%).
 War on terror aid
• Compared to the actual foreign aid of $18.8
billion to Pakistan, Pakistan sustained
$123.13 billion losses on account of the war
against terrorism since 9/11.
• US economic leverage over Pakistan has
significantly reduced since 2014, as it came
down to $1.6 billion per annum against the
average of $2.3 billion per annum between
2002 and 2013.
 War on terror aid
• By excluding CSF, US assistance to Pakistan
from 2014 to 2016 was $810 million per annum
against the average of $1.4 billion during the
2002-2013 period.
• The flow of funds from the US to Pakistan saw
another drastic reduction in 2017.
• US economic assistance historically remained
around 1% of Pakistan’s budget, which can
easily be met from other sources.
 War on terror aid-Security
• Since 2002, the US has given $7.96 billion in
security assistance to Pakistan with an annual
average of $530.4 million, which is 23.83% of total.
• A major chunk of it – $3.8 billion – has been
given under the Foreign Military Financing
programme.
• Another sum of $2.35 billion has been given
under the Pakistan Counterinsurgency Fund and
Counterinsurgency Capability Fund.
 War on terror aid-Security
• The third major portion was $911 million, which
the US gave under the International Narcotics
Control and Law Enforcement programme.
• Against the 12-year average of $576.7 million, the
US gave $1.03 billion from 2014 to 2016 with an
average of only $345 million under the security-
related assistance to Pakistan. Most of this sum
came under the foreign military financing
programme.
 War on terror aid-Economic
• The US has given $10.85 billion in economic
assistance to Pakistan during the past 15 years
at an average of $723.5 million per annum.
• The 12-year average was $788 million per
annum. The economic assistance was about
one-third of the total US budgetary
appropriations for Pakistan.
 War on terror aid-Economic
• Out of $10.85 billion, the US gave $8.5 billion
under the Economic Support Fund, followed
by $918 million under the International
Disaster Assistance Programme and another
$623 million in food aid to Pakistan.
• However, during the past three years, the
economic assistance has come down to only
$1.4 billion, at an average of $345 million per
annum.
 War on terror aid
• Although the American civilian and military
assistance has significantly dried up in the
recent past, Pakistan still needs US support for
securing loans at less harsh terms from the
IMF and the World Bank.
• Pakistan’s economic relations with the US has
been on the decline for the past 15 years, as its
share in exports, remittances and foreign direct
investment have drastically reduced.