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Fcffginzu - Xls Using The Valuation Spreadsheet
Fcffginzu - Xls Using The Valuation Spreadsheet
Fcffginzu - Xls Using The Valuation Spreadsheet
xls
Using the Valuation Spreadsheet
Aswath Damodaran
A podcast
1
Overview
Suited for: most non-financial service firms
What the spreadsheet tries to do:
– Value the operating assets of the firm by disconting the cashflows to the
firm at the cost of capital
– Augments this value with the value on non-operating assets such as cash
and cross holdings
– Estimates the value of equity and equity per share
2
A picture of the model…
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3
Inputs: Financial Statement numbers
Inputs
From Current Financials
Current EBIT = $3,455.00 ! If negative, go back and cho
Current Interest Expense = $0.00
Current Capital Spending $3,100.00
Current Depreciation & Amort'n = $486.00
Tax Rate on Income = 35.00% Previous year-end
Current Revenues = $12,154.00 8488
Current Non-cash Working Capital = ($404.00)
Chg. Working Capital = ($700.00) Previous year-end
Book Value of Debt = $0.00 0
Book Value of Equity = $11,722.00 7191
4
Capitalizing R&D
R & D Converter
This spreadsheet converts R&D expenses from operating to capital expenses. It makes the appropriate adjustments to operating income, net
income, the book value of assets and the book value of equity.
Inputs
Over how many years do you want to amortize R&D expenses 5
Enter the current year's R&D expense = $1,594.00
Enter R& D expenses for past years: the number of years that you will need to enter will be determined by the amortization period
Do not input numbers in the first column (Year). It will get automatically updated based on the input above.
Year R& D Expenses
-1 1026.00 ! Year -1 is the year prior to the current year
-2 698.00 ! Year -2 is the two years prior to the current year
-3 399.00
-4 211.00
-5 89.00
0
0
0
0
0
Output
Year R&D Expense Unamortized portion Amortization this year
Current 1594.00 1.00 1594.00
-1 1026.00 0.80 820.80 $205.20
-2 698.00 0.60 418.80 $139.60
-3 399.00 0.40 159.60 $79.80
-4 211.00 0.20 42.20 $42.20
-5 89.00 0.00 0.00 $17.80
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.00
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.00
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.00
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.00
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.00
Value of Research Asset = $3,035.40 $484.60
Adjustment to Operating Income = $1,109.40 ! A positive number indicates an increase in operating income (add to reported EBIT)
5
Capitalizing Leases…
Operating Lease Converter
Inputs
Operating lease expense in current year = $121.00
Operating Lease Commitments (From footnote to financials)
Year Commitment ! Year 1 is next year, ….
1 $ 156.00
2 $ 143.00
3 $ 122.00
4 $ 109.00
5 $ 97.00
6 and beyond $ 448.00
Output
Pre-tax Cost of Debt = 5.75% ! If you do not have a cost of debt, use the ratings estimator
Number of years embedded in yr 6 estimate = 4 ! I use the average lease expense over the first five years
to estimate the number of years of expenses in yr 6
Converting Operating Leases into debt
Year Commitment Present Value
1 $ 156.00 $147.52
2 $ 143.00 $127.87
3 $ 122.00 $103.16
4 $ 109.00 $87.16
5 $ 97.00 $73.34
6 and beyond $ 112.00 $295.14 ! Commitment beyond year 6 converted into an annuity for ten years
Debt Value of leases = $ 834.19
Restated Financials
Depreciation on Operating Lease Asset = $92.69 ! I use straight line depreciation
Adjustment to Operating Earnings = $47.97 ! PV of operating leases * Pre-tax cost of debt
Adjustment to Total Debt outstanding = $ 834.19
6
Normalizing Earnings..
Normalizing Earnings
Approach used to normalize earnings = 3
If historical average,
Average Earnings before interest and taxes = 3500
If sector margin
Pre-tax Operating Margin for Sector = 14.72% ! Look at industry average
7
Market Inputs
8
Ratings and Options (if any)
Ratings
Do you want to estimate the firm's synthetic rating = No
If yes, choose the type of firm 2
If not, what is the current rating of the firm? BBB
Enter the cost of debt associated with the rating = 5.75%
Options
Do you have equity options (management options, warrants) outstanding? Yes
If yes, enter the number of options 439.00
Average strike price $22.52
Average maturity 6.8
Standard Deviation in stock price 40%
Do you want to use the stock price to value the option or your estimated value? P
9
A high growth period?
Valuation Inputs
High Growth Period
Length of high growth period = 12
Beta to use for high growth period for your firm= 1.43
Do you want to keep the debt ratio computed from your inputs? Yes
If yes, the debt ratio that will be used to compute the cost of capital is 0.18%
If no, enter the debt ratio that you would like to use in the high growth period 7.00%
Do you want to keep the existing ratio of working capital to revenue? No
If yes, the working capital as a percent of revenues will be -3.32%
If no, enter the ratio of working capital to revenues to use in analysis 12%
Do you want to compute your growth rate from fundamentals? Yes
If no, enter the expected growth rate in operating income for high growth period 15%
If yes, the inputs to the fundamental growth calculation (based upon your inputs) are
Return on Capital = 28.37%
Reinvestment Rate = 110.70%
Do you want to change these inputs? No
Return on Capital = 16.00%
Reinvestment Rate = 80.00%
Do you want me to gradually adjust your high growth inputs in the second half? Yes
10
Stable growth inputs
11
Valuation Summary and Diagnostics..
12
Reading the Output
13