HISTORICAL RESEARCH DESIGN

The purpose of a historical design is to

COLLECT, VERIFY and SYNTHESIZE evidence
from the past to establish facts that defend or
refute your hypothesis. It uses secondary
sources and a variety of primary documentary
evidences such as:
 LOGS
 DIARIES
 OFFICIAL RECORDS
 REPORTS
 ARCHIVES
 NON-TEXTUAL INFORMATION ( like MAPS,
PICTURES, AUDIO and VISUAL RECORDINGS)
The limitation is that the sources must be both
AUTHENTIC and VALID
 Quantitative history deals on studies that
focus on small groups of people and others that
include huge populations. Some quantitative
studies use original data collected in numeric
form, such as tax assessment or business
ledgers.
 Others involve the conversation of numeric
evidence, such as city directories or church
membership lists, into numeric form as a first
step of analysis. Some quantitative studies
employ rudimentary mathematical techniques
(such as addition, subtraction, multiplication and
division) to analyze numeric data.
 Other make use of sophisticated statistical
procedures and mathematical model-building
based on complex theoretical assumptions.
Sometimes, quantitative history called
CLIOMETRICS by economic historians.
 Classical historical research methodology
relies upon textual records, archival research
and the narrative as a form of historical writing.
The historian describes and explains particular
phenomena and events. Quantitative history has
similar goals but takes as its subject the
aggregate historical patterns of multiple events
or phenomena.
 A classical historical analysis, for example,
may treat a presidential election as a single
event while a quantitative historian considers a
particular presidential election as one element
in the universe of all presidential election and
are interested in patterns which characterize the
universe or several units within it.
 The creation of quantitative data sets
requires the historian to carefully compile
consistent information about the phenomenon
to be investigated and apply the techniques of
statistical data set to answer the research
question.
 Thus, to make effective use of quantitative
evidence and statistical techniques for historical
analysis, practitioners have to integrate the
developing skills of the social sciences, including
sampling, statistical data analysis and data
archiving into their historical work. That task led
to the development of new training programs in
quantitative methods for historian ( Anderson,
2007).
 Statistical analysis of historical data has
ranged from simple descriptive statistics to more
elaborate quantitative analyses and models of
events and behavior. Quantitative historians
have borrowed heavily from sociology, political
science, demography and economics and made
use of classical linear regression model and its
variants as techniques for more complex
analysis.
 Statistical packages, such as SPSS, SAS, STATA
and like strengthen the analysis of quantitative
historical work, as they do for the social
sciences. An example of this is the development
of the field of ecological regression, particularly
for analysis of electoral patterns.
 Political scientists can supplement analysis of
election results with surveys of individual voters.
Indeed the National Election Surveys, conducted
since 1948, has itself become an historical
source of changing electoral behavior.
 But historians cannot go back and survey
voters from the election of 1860, and thus must
make use of the aggregate election results and
the ecological characteristics of the voting units-
e.g., precincts, districts or countries-that provide
the vote.
 Quantitative historians have to acquire the
skills necessary to prepare and present statistical
results in print. Historians use visual images,
audio and video in the presentations, not as
“illustration” to enhance or supplement as
analysis but as core evidence analysis.
 Steckel (2005) proposed an agenda for what
he called “Big Social Science History”, which
would extend the capacities of quantitative
history and translate some of its method of work
to non-quantitative projects. Thus, collaborative
efforts to manage the enormously expanding
data infrastructure and the computer
technologies digitized historical evidence, the
developed appropriate theoretical approaches
to such historical work.
MAJOR PROCESSES OF HISTORICAL
RESEARCH
1. DATA COLLECTION
The historian collects data from the past
through relics, fossils or documents found in the
activities or through personal interviews with
key informants. Old newspaper clippings,
memoirs, diaries and the like are rich source of
historical data.
2. ANALYSIS OF DATA
The historians brings together the data
collected to the state of knowledge about the
past event and use simple to complex statistical
tools for analysis.
3. REPORT OF FINDINGS
The historian reports his/her findings by
carefully explaining discrepancies noted and the
probable causes of such discrepancies.
 SAMPLING PLAN FOR
EXPERIMENTAL RESEARCH
 TWO-FACTOR DESIGNS
Suppose that the experiment calls for the use
of two factors, factor A and factor B each taking
two levels. To measure the interaction of factors
A and B, there must be at least two observations
per combination of the factor levels. Thus the
minimum sample size is:
n≥2 x a x b
 THREE FACTOR DESIGNS
If three factors are to be considered, Factor A,
Factor B and Factor C with levels a, b and c
respectively, then to measure the interaction
effects of the three factors we require two
observations per combination of the factor
levels. The minimum sample size is, therefore,
n≥2 x a x b x c
• MULTIFACTOR
  DESIGNS
Let … be K different factors with level … ,
respectively. The minimum sample size required
is
n≥2 x x x …
THANK
YOU!
QUIZ
FILL IN THE BLANKS
1. The limitation is that the sources must be
both ________ and __________.
2. Sometimes, quantitative history called
__________ by economic historians.
3. The purpose of a historical design is to
_______, _________ and ________evidence
from the past to establish facts that defend
or refute your hypothesis.
4. This is called as _________ wherein the
historian reports his/her findings by carefully
explaining discrepancies noted and the probable
causes of such discrepancies.

5.The historians brings together the data

collected to the state of knowledge about the
past event and use simple to complex statistical
tools for analysis is called as ______________.

6. Old newspaper clippings, memoirs, diaries and

the like are rich source of____________.
7. Historians use visual images, audio and video
in the presentations, not as _____________ to
enhance or supplement as analysis but as core
evidence analysis.

8. The minimum sample size of Two Factor

Design is _____________.

9. Classical historical research methodology

relies upon ___________ , ___________, and
______________ as a form of historical writing.
10. Steckel (2005) proposed an agenda for what
he called ________________, which would
extend the capacities of quantitative history and
translate some of its method of work to non-
quantitative projects.
 ANSWERS
1. Authentic and valid
2. Cliometrics
3. collect, verify and synthesized
4. Report of findings
5. Analysis of data
6. Historical data
7. illustration
8. n≥2 x a x b
9. Textual records, archival research and narrative
10. “Big Social Science History”