ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation

FAA / EUROCONTROL Cooperative R&D

Action Plan 9

“System Wide Modeling in Fast-time Simulation”

Current and Future Capabilities

1st Annual Workshop – NAS-Wide Simulation in Support of NextGen

Dec. 10th – George Mason University

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 ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation

TABLE OF CONTENTS

• Introduction
• Research Objective
• Approach
• Scope
• Findings
• Questionnaire Sections
• Existing Capabilities
• Gaps in Capabilities
• Conclusions
• Needs
• Industry Participation
• Integration Issues

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 ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation

INTRODUCTION

• Action Plan 9 (AP9) – Air Traffic Modeling of Operational Concepts

• Research Objectives:
• Determine modeling capabilities of existing system wide tools
• Determine the availability of capabilities required for future system wide
concepts

• Approach:
• TIM: Madrid, Spain, Nov. 16-17, 2006
• Interviews with model developers and subject matter experts
• Responses from 15 organizations and 28 subject matter experts
• 18 fast-time system wide modeling tools
• Document the research and the conclusions

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 ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation

SCOPE

• System wide is equivalent to:

­Runway-to Runway operations (US)
­Gate-to-Gate operations (Europe)

• Focus
- System operations as opposed to economic, financial or political
attributes of the ATM system, and
- System wide modeling capabilities that
­Capture propagation of a problem throughout the system
­Support modeling of future operations, technologies and concepts.

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 ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation

INTERVIEW: QUESTIONNAIRE SECTIONS

• General Modeling Information

• Airspace
• Flight Schedule & Trajectories
• Separation – Tactical Control
• Traffic Flow Management (TFM)
• Airports
• Aircraft
• Collaborative Decision Making (CDM)
• Environment
• Infrastructure
• Human Performance
• Software – Architecture and Programming

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 ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation

FINDINGS: EXISTING CAPABILITIES

• General Modeling Information

• Discrete event, continuous time, agent-based, and analytical tools
• Stochastic processes or working toward stochastic elements
• Capacity, delay, and efficiency primary focus

- Airspace
- Most considered sectors as resources others more detailed
- Sector capacity typically modeled using MAP values

• Flight Schedules and Trajectories

­Traffic defined by:
­schedules
­filed flight plans
­as-flown trajectories
­great circle routes
­4D trajectories: pre-processing vs. run-time adjustments
­Some considered uncertainty in 4D positions

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 ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation

FINDINGS: EXISTING CAPABILITIES (Cont.)

• Separation – Tactical Control (varied in models)
• Conflict detection and resolution
• Capacity-demand imbalances
• Flight re-routing

•Traffic Flow Management:

­Departure Time Management (mostly European tools)
­Ground Delay and Ground Stop Programs
­In-trail restrictions, metering and sequencing (limited)
­Re-routing around severe weather cells (limited)

• Airports
­High-level vs. detailed capabilities
­Departure sequencing and delay

• Aircraft
­Varying levels of fidelity of aircraft performance characteristics modeling
­Aircraft performance as a function of on-board equipage

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 ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation

FINDINGS: EXISTING CAPABILITIES (Cont.)

• Collaborative Decision Making
• AOC’s/Pilots
• Flight slot swapping (pre-processing)

• Environmental Concerns
- Only via post-processing

• Infrastructure
- Failure rates via impact on capacity limitations

• Human Performance
- Controller workload: task allocation and time-on-task

• Software – Architecture and Programming

- Maturity of the tools
- Validation and verification
- Integration of new capabilities
- Connectivity between tools

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 ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation

FINDINGS: GAPS IN CAPABILITIES

• Objective sector capacity evaluation as a function of:

­Human performance
­Traffic complexity
­Separation standards
­Weather

• Ability to distinguish operational and procedural differences across

­Domains and airspace segments (en route, terminal, approach/departure, etc.)
­Different categories of flights (IFR vs. VFR, equipage based performance, etc.)
­Different categories of airspace (PBA)

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 ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation

FINDINGS: GAPS IN CAPABILITIES (Cont.)

• Propagation of impacts from one restriction to another (including CDM)
• Conflict detection and resolution
• Capacity-demand imbalances (MAP’s, in-trail restrictions, LOA’s, etc.)
• Flight re-routing (SUA’s, congestion, weather, etc.)

• Propagation of impacts from one resource to another

­Both from ground to air, and air to air resource
­Supporting infrastructure and its requirements
­System errors, update rates, failures and outages
­
• Incorporation of stochastic processes and behaviors
­Uncertainty in aircraft 4D position
­Non-compliance with the expected user behavior (e.g. 4D contract and TMI)

•Future concepts of interest (examples)

­Dynamic Sectorization
­Multi Sector Planner
­Trajectory Based Operations

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 ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation

FINDINGS: GAPS IN CAPABILITIES (Cont.)

• Standardized performance measures and indicators to facilitate repeatability

and cross-comparison of the outcomes

• Optimization capabilities, including both individual trajectory and flow or

system wide optimized solutions

• Environmental considerations, restrictions, and trade-offs

• Other considerations
­Sensitivity analysis
­Validation and verification
­Difficulty of integration of new capabilities and disconnectivity between tools

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 ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation

SOME ADDITIONAL THOUGHTS

• Providing Insights vs. Predictions of Future

• Required level of detail
• Flexibility

• Industry Participation Needed

• Aircraft performance chars. (manufacturers, air carriers, etc.)
­4D trajectory building
­Fuel burn
• CDM
­Airline goals
­Re-routing negotiations

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 ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation

CONCLUSIONS
• Balance between too much and too little detail is important

• Flexibility is crucial
­Desired level of fidelity as a function of modeling objective
­Do not focus on generating outcomes and data-drilling capabilities
­Focus on providing novel analytical capabilities while ensuring consistency

• Plug-and-play capabilities
­Flexible modeling environment
­Harmonious modeling components

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ATM System Wide Modeling Capabilities in Fast-Time Simulation

Contact Information

Albert Schwartz, FAA

albert.schwartz@faa.gov

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