Discrete Probability Distribution

Chapter 1
Discrete Probability
Distribution
Copyright ©2017 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 5-1

Discrete Random Variables
 Two Types of Random Variables
 Discrete Probability Distributions
 The Binomial Distribution
 The Poisson Distribution

Learning Objective
Two Types of Random

5-1: Explain the
difference between a
discrete random
variable and a
continuous random
variable. Variables (1 of 2)
• Random variable: a variable whose value
is a numerical value that is determined by
the outcome of an experiment
– Discrete
– Continuous
• Discrete random variable: Possible
values can be counted or listed
– The number of defective units in a batch of
20
– A listener rating (on a scale of 1 to 5) in an
AccuRating music survey

Learning Objective
5.1 Two Types of Random

5-1: Explain the
difference between a
discrete random
variable and a
continuous random
variable. Variables (2 of 2)
• Continuous random variable: May
assume any numerical value in one or
more intervals
– The waiting time for a credit card
authorization
– The interest rate charged on a business loan

Some examples will clarify the difference between
discrete and continuous variables.
 Suppose the fire department mandates that all fire fighters must
weigh between 150 and 250 pounds. The weight of a fire fighter
would be an example of a continuous variable; since a fire fighter's
weight could take on any value between 150 and 250 pounds
 Suppose we flip a coin and count the number of heads. The

number of heads could be any integer value between 0 and plus
infinity. However, it could not be any number between 0 and plus
infinity. We could not, for example, get 2.5 heads. Therefore, the
number of heads must be a discrete variable.
Learning Objective
5.2 Discrete Probability

5-2: Find a discrete
probability
distribution and
compute its mean
and standard
deviation. Distributions
• The probability distribution of a discrete
random variable is a table, graph or
formula that gives the probability
associated with each possible value that the
variable can assume
– Called a discrete probability distribution
• Notation: Denote the values of the random
variable by x and the value’s associated
probability by p(x)

If a random variable is a discrete variable, its probability distribution is called a discrete
probability distribution.
An example will make this clear. Suppose you flip a coin two times. This simple
statistical experiment can have four possible outcomes: HH, HT, TH, and TT. Now, let the
random variable X represent the number of Heads that result from this experiment. The
random variable X can only take on the values 0, 1, or 2, so it is a discrete random variable.
The probability distribution for this statistical experiment appears below.
The above table represents a discrete probability distribution because it relates each value
of a discrete random variable with its probability of occurrence. we will study two types of
descrete distributions:
 Binomial probability distribution
 Poisson probability distribution
Note: With a discrete probability distribution, each possible value of the discrete random
variable can be associated with a non-zero probability. Thus, a discrete probability
distribution can always be presented in tabular form.
Number of heads Probability
0 0.25
1 0.50
2 0.25
Learning Objective
Discrete Probability
probability
distribution and
compute its mean
and standard
deviation. Distribution Properties
1. For any value x of the random variable,
p(x)  0
2. The probabilities of all the events in the
sample space must sum to 1, that is…
 p x   1
all x

Learning Objective
Expected Value of a Discrete

probability
distribution and
Random Variable
compute its mean
and standard
deviation.
• The mean or expected value of a discrete

random variable X is:
μ   x p x 
X All x
• m is the value expected to occur in the

long run and on average

Learning Objective
probability
distribution and
compute its mean
and standard
Variance
deviation.
• The variance is the average of the squared

deviations of the different values of the
random variable from the expected value
• The variance of a discrete random variable
is:
2 2
   x  μ p x 
X All x X
 

Learning Objective
probability
distribution and
compute its mean
and standard
Standard Deviation
deviation.
• The standard deviation is the square root of

the variance
  2
X x
• The variance and standard deviation
measure the spread of the values of the
random variable from their expected value

Example
• The Statistical Abstract of the United States is published
annually. It contains a wide variety of information
based on the census as well as other sources. The
objective is to provide information about a variety of
different aspects of the lives of the country's residents.
One of the questions asks households to report the
number of persons living in the household. The
following table summarizes the data. (Excel –
household)
– Develop the probability distribution of the r.v.
defined as the number of persons per household
– Find mean, variance and S.D. for the population of
the number of persons per household.

Learning Objective
5.3 The Binomial

5-3: Use the
binomial distribution
to compute
probabilities.
Distribution (1 of 2)
• The binomial experiment characteristics…
1. Experiment consists of n identical trials
2. Each trial results in either “success” or
“failure”
3. Probability of success, p, is constant from
trial to trial
 The probability of failure, q, is 1 – p
4. Trials are independent
• If x is the total number of successes in n
trials of a binomial experiment, then x is a
binomial random variable
Learning Objective
5.3 The Binomial

5-3: Use the
to compute
Distribution (2 of 2)
probabilities.
• For a binomial random variable x, the

probability of x successes in n trials is given by
the binomial distribution:
n!
px  = p x qn- x
x!  n - x  !
• n! is read as “n factorial” and n! = n × (n-1) ×
(n-2) × ... × 1
• 0! =1
• Not defined for negative numbers or fractions

Binomial Probability Table 5.4
Learning Objective
5-3: Use the
to compute
probabilities. (a) for n = 4, with x = 2 and p
= 0.1
A Portion of a Binomial Probability Table
a) A table for n=4 Trails.
Number of Number of
p=0.5 p=.10 p=.15 p=.20 p=.25 p=.30 p=.35 p=.40 p=.45 p=.50
Successes Successes
0 .8145 .6561 .5220 .4096 .3164 .2401 .1785 .1296 .0915 .0625 4
1 .1715 .2916 .3685 .4096 .4216 .4116 .3845 .3456 .0995 .2500 3
2 .0135 .0486 .0975 .1536 .2109 .2646 .3105 . 3456 .3675 .3750 2
3 .0005 .0036 .0115 .0256 .0469 .0756 .1115 . 1536 .2005 .2500 1
4 .0000 .0001 .0005 0016 .0039 .0081 .0150 .0256 .0410 .0625 0
p=.95 p=.90 p=.85 p=.80 p=.75 p=.70 p=.65 p=.60 p=.55 p=.50
P(x=2) = 0.0486

Learning Objective
Figure 5.7 Several Binomial

5-3: Use the
to compute
Distributions
probabilities.

Learning Objective
Mean and Variance of a

5-3: Use the
to compute
probabilities.
Binomial Random Variable

• If x is a binomial random variable with
parameters n and p (so q = 1 – p), then
Mean m  n  p
Variance s2  n  p  q
x
Standard deviation sx  square root n  p  q
σ  npq
X

CASE1
■Suppose a coin is flipped 10 times, we are interested in

knowing the number of heads on the upper face of the
coin. Let us try to examine all the assumptions:
 The experiment involves a sequence of n
independent trials.(there are sequence of 10
identical trials.)
 For each trial there are two possible outcomes-
success and failure.(on tossing a coin only two
outcomes are there-head and tail).
 Trials are independent.(outcome of any one trial is
not affected by the outcome of any other trial.)
 The probability of success p and failure q=(1-p)
Should remain constant throughout.(the probability
of getting a head or tail are the same for each
trial. p=0.5 and q=0.5)
Contd…….
Thus all the assumptions are

satisfied. Hence this is an
Binomial experiment. So random
variable x=number of heads
appearing in the 10trials can
assume the values of 0,1,2…….10.

The probability of x success in n trials
is given by the required formula.
• Probability of getting two heads is:

……….

Examples
• A coin is tossed 5 times.What is the probability of
getting atleast 3 heads? Ans:1/2
• If the probability of hitting a target is 1/5 and 10

shots are fired independently ,what is the probability
of a target being hit at least twice.
• A manufacturing company of South Maharashtra

found after launching a golden handshake scheme
for voluntary retirement,10%of workers are
unemployed. What is the probability of obtaining
three or fewer unemployed workers in a random
sample of 30 in a survey conducted by the company.
Ans:0.647

Example
• Thirty percent of all customers who enter a store will make a
purchase. Suppose that six customers enter the store and
that these customers make independent purchase decision.
– Write the binomial formula for this situation
– Calculate
▪ Prob. That exactly five customers make a purchase
▪ Prob. That at least three make a purchase
▪ Prob. That two or fewer customers make a purchase
▪ Prob. That at least one customer makes a purchase

Example
• The customer service department for a wholesale
electronics outlet claims that 90% of all customer
complaints are resolved to the satisfaction of the customer.
In order to test this claim, a random sample of 15
customers who have filed complaints is selected.
– Write binomial formula for this situation
– Find
▪ P(X≤13) P(X>10)
▪ P(X≥14) P(9 ≤X ≤12)
▪ P(X≤9)
Suppose that of the 15 customers selected, 9 have had
their complaints resolved satisfactorily. Using above
question, do you believe the claim of 90%
satisfaction. Explain.

Example
• An industry representative claims that 50% of all
satellite dish owners subscribe to at least one premium
movie channel. In an attempt to justify this claim, the
representative will poll a randomly selected sample of
dish owners.
– Suppose that the representative claim is true, and
suppose that a sample of 4 dish owners is randomly
selected. Assuming independence, compute
▪ Prob. That none of the dish owners in the sample
subscribes to at least one premium movie channel.
▪ Prob. That more than 2 dish owners in the sample

Contd…
– Suppose that the representative claim is true, and
suppose that a sample of 20 dish owners is
randomly selected. Assuming independence,
compute
▪ Prob. That 9 or fewer dish owners in the sample
▪ Prob. That more than 11 dish owners in the sample
▪ Prob. That less than 5 dish owners in the sample

Poisson distribution
• For a given no. of trials, the B.D. describes a distribution of two
possible outcomes: either success or failure, number of trials is
fixed before the experiment begins.
• Poisson distribution focuses on the no. of discrete
occurrences over an interval.
• EXAMPLE:
• No. of arrivals at an automobile service station in 10 hrs.
• No. of accidents at the road intersection in a month
• No. of patients arriving at a health care centre every day
Here, our concern is only in their occurrence and not their
non-occurrence.
• Also called as Law of Improbable events bz P.D. describes the
occurrence of rare events.
• EXAMPLE : Serious accidents at a road intersection in one day are
rare occurrences

Properties of poisson distribution
• Each occurrence of an event is independent of the
occurrence of the other event
• Poisson distribution describes discrete occurrences
over a specific time interval.
• In each interval, occurrences can range from zero
to infinity.
• The probability of occurrence is the same for any
intervals of equal length
If x = the number of occurrences in a specified

interval, then x is a Poisson random variable

• Suppose  or µ is the mean or expected
number of occurrences during a specified
interval
• The probability function for the Poisson
distribution with parameter  is:
•  is like the arrival rate --- higher means
more/faster arrivals

e  x
Px  X   for x  0,1,2,3,...
x!
• and e = 2.71828 (e is the base of the natural logs)

• Expectation and variance
E X   V  X   

• Consider the following conditions:
• p is very small and approaches 0
• example: a 100 sided dice instead of a 6 sided
dice, p = 1/100 instead of 1/6
• example: a 1000 sided dice, p = 1/1000
• N is very large and approaches ∞
• example: throwing 100 or 1000 dice instead
of 2 dice
• The product Np is finite
• When the no. of trials is large but the binomial
probability of success is very small, B.D. can be
approximated using the P.D.

• Statisticians use n larger than or equal
to 20 and p less than or equal to 0.05
as the right case of approximating
binomial problems by the Poisson
distribution.
• Here, mean of B.D. (np) is used as a
substitute of mean of the P.D. (λ)
• Poisson distribution is positively
skewed.

Learning Objective
Table 5.5 Poisson Probability

5-4: Use the Poisson
distribution to
compute
probabilities
(Optional).
Table
X,Number of
=.1 =.2 =.3 =.4 =.5 =.6 =.7 =.8 =.9 =.10
Occurrences
0 .9048 .8187 .7408 .6703 .6065 .5488 .4966 .4493 .4066 .3679
1 .0905 .1637 .2222 .2681 .3033 .3293 .3476 .3595 .3659 .3679
2 .0045 .0165 .0333 .0536 .0758 ..0688 .1217 .1438 .1647 .1839
3 .0002 .0011 .0033 .0072 .0126 .0198 .0284 .0383 .0494 .0613
4 .0000 .0001 .0003 .0007 .0016 .0030 .0050 .0077 .0111 .0153
5 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0001 .0002 .0004 .0007 .0012 .0020 .0031
6 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0001 .0002 .0003 .0005
µ, Mean Number of Occurrences

0.4 3
P  x  3 
e  0.4  0.0072
3!
Learning Objective
Poisson Probability
distribution to
compute
Calculations
probabilities
(Optional).
The Poisson Distribution of x, the number of errors at

an Air Traffic Control Center in a week, when =.4
μ x
e μ
x, the Number of Errors in a week p x  
x!
.4 0
0 p 0 
e .4  .6703
0!
.4 1
1 p1 
e .4
 .2631
1!
2
e.4 .4
2 p 2   .0536
2!
3
e.4 .4
3 p 3   .0072
3!
4
e.4 .4
4 p 4   .0007
4!
5
e.4 .4
5 p  5   .0001
5!
6
e.4 .4
6 p 6    .0000
6!
Learning Objective
Figure 5.10 Several Poisson

distribution to
compute
probabilities
(Optional).
Distributions (1 of 2)

Learning Objective
Figure 5.10 Several Poisson

distribution to
compute
probabilities
(Optional).
Distributions (2 of 2)

Practice question:
A research firm is investigating the safety

of dangerous road intersection.
Historical data from past reveals an
average of 6 accidents per month at
this particular intersection.The number
of accidents are distributed according to
a poisson distribution.The research
wants to calculate the probability of
exactly 0,1,2,3,4 or 5 accidents in any
month.

Exercise
• A bank manager wishes to provide prompt service for
customers at the bank's drive up window.The bank
currently can serve upto 10 customers per 15 -min period
without significant delay .The average arrival rate is 7
customers per 15 -minute period.Assuming x has a poisson
distribution:
• A)Find the probability that 10 customers will arrive in a
particular 15-minute period.
• Find the probability that 10 or fewer customers will arrive in
a particular 15- min period.
• Find the probability that there will be a significant delay at
the drive- up window.That is find the probability that more
than 10 customers will arrive during a particular 15- minute
period.

Example
• If, on an average, 2 customers arrive at a shopping
mall per minute, what is the probability that
– In a given minute, exactly 3 customers will arrive
– In a given minute, no customer will arrive
– In a given minute, more than 2 customers will
arrive
– In a 5-minute period, exactly 10 customers will
arrive

Example
• Given that the switchboard of

consultant’s office receives on the
average 0.9 calls per minute. Find the
probabilities that
– In a given minute there will be at least one
incoming call.
– Between 10.00 AM and 10.02 AM there will
be exactly 2 incoming calls.
– During an interval of 4 minutes there
will be at most 3 incoming calls.

Special case
According to the Gallup Poll conducted in

2015 only 1% of Russian approved of
U.S. leadership. To evaluate whether this
claim has any merit a statistician took a
random sample of 100 Russian.
Determine the probability :
• No one approved of U.S. leadership
• One Russian approved of U.S. leadership
• Two Russian approved of U.S. leadership

Special case :
• A manufacturing firm has 30 machines. The
probability that any one of them will not function
during a day is 0.01. what is the probability that
exactly two machines will be out of order on the
same day?

• A post-graduate student in commerce is trying
to decide on the number of firms to which he
should apply. Given his work experience and
grades, he can expect to receive a job offer
from 80% of the firms to which he applies.
The student decides to apply to only four
firms.
– What is the probability that he received no
job offers?
– What is the probability that he received
more than two offers?

• In a shipment of 25 hard disks, six are
defective. If five of the disks are
selected at random, what is the
probability that
– Exactly one is defective
– At least one is defective
– No less than two are defective ( at least
two are defective)

Discrete Probability Distribution

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Chapter 1

Copyright ©2017 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 5-1

Copyright ©2017 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 5-2

Two Types of Random

Copyright ©2017 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 5-3

5.1 Two Types of Random

Copyright ©2017 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 5-4

 Suppose we flip a coin and count the number of heads. The

5.2 Discrete Probability

Copyright ©2017 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 5-6

Number of heads Probability

Copyright ©2017 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 5-8

Expected Value of a Discrete

• The mean or expected value of a discrete

• m is the value expected to occur in the

Copyright ©2017 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 5-9

• The variance is the average of the squared

Copyright ©2017 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 5-10

• The standard deviation is the square root of

Copyright ©2017 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 5-11

Copyright ©2017 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 5-12

5.3 The Binomial

5.3 The Binomial

• For a binomial random variable x, the

Copyright ©2017 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 5-14

Copyright ©2017 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 5-15

Figure 5.7 Several Binomial

Copyright ©2017 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 5-16

Mean and Variance of a

Binomial Random Variable

Copyright ©2017 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 5-17

■Suppose a coin is flipped 10 times, we are interested in

Thus all the assumptions are

Copyright ©2017 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 5-19

• Probability of getting two heads is:

Copyright ©2017 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 5-20

• If the probability of hitting a target is 1/5 and 10

• A manufacturing company of South Maharashtra

Copyright ©2017 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 5-21

Copyright ©2017 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 5-22

Copyright ©2017 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 5-23

Copyright ©2017 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 5-24

Copyright ©2017 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 5-25

Copyright ©2017 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 5-26

If x = the number of occurrences in a specified

Copyright ©2017 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 5-27

• and e = 2.71828 (e is the base of the natural logs)

• Expectation and variance

Copyright ©2017 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 5-29

Copyright ©2017 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 5-30

Copyright ©2017 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 5-31

Table 5.5 Poisson Probability

µ, Mean Number of Occurrences

The Poisson Distribution of x, the number of errors at

Figure 5.10 Several Poisson

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Figure 5.10 Several Poisson

Copyright ©2017 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 5-35

A research firm is investigating the safety

Copyright ©2017 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 5-36

Copyright ©2017 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 5-37

Copyright ©2017 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 5-38

• Given that the switchboard of

Copyright ©2017 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 5-39