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Black Belt Training - Module 2 - Day 2
Black Belt Training - Module 2 - Day 2
Module 2 - Day 2
Today’s Agenda
Day 1 Day 2 Day 3
0830
Analyse: Step 9 Hypothesis tests
Possible Causes
Process Collected
Info. Data
Identify all likely causes
Prioritise
Process Tools the vital few
Data Tools
causes
Yesterday Today
Approaches to Identifying ANALYSE
Causes STEP 9
Process Analysis-
Mapping, Moments of Truth (MoT’s), Cycle Time,
Value Added Analysis
Data Analysis-
Grouping data, Charting data, Checking
Normality, Applying upper and lower limits,
Understanding capabilities, Looking for Special
Causes, etc.for this second approach:
New tools
Minitab Tools to help in the analysis
Ishikawa (Fishbone or Cause & Effect) Diagram
Process for Data ANALYSE
Analysis STEP 9
Suspect
Suspects Listed Root
Causes
Real Example of ANALYSE
Data Analysis STEP 9
Perform Capability
Revealed that capability indices low.
Analysis
Refresher on
Gauge R&R
Gauge R&R
Repeatabilit
y
Accuracy
2
Total 2
part part 2
R& R ? Stability
Linearity
Calibration
What is acceptable?
Acceptable < 20% (some suggest this should
be 10%)
LSL USL
Measurement Variation Risks
Measurement
variation
Probability of
incorrectly rejecting
a good part
A COST ISSUE
Good part’s
LSL true value USL
Measurement Variation Risks
Probability of Measurement
incorrectly accepting variation
a bad part
A COMPLIANCE ISSUE
Bad part’s
true value
LSL USL
% Study and % Tolerance
% of study represents the ability of the gauge to distinguish
part to part differences - useful for process control
% of tolerance represents the ability of the gauge to accept or
reject part
Refresher on
Graphing and
Plotting
Graphing
In this step (identifying causes) Graphing can be
used to:
50
40
Frequency
30
20
10
36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
alldata
30
Frequency
20
10
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
Alldata
4
Frequency
2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4
Yield
Lowest Value
The Run Chart
16
14
Hours to process
x x
12 x x x
10 x x
x
8 x x
4
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Sample number
x - person A x - person B
Belt Training
Control Charts
Control Charts
To reduce variation, its
Variation can be modelled
cause must be found.
by probability density
Control charts are an
functions like the normal
approach for the distribution.
measurement and
analysis of process
variation. Variation
Control charts do not
control, but provide Variation
information for
control.
Variation
Process Variation
The Shewhart Concept of Variation
Time Time
Average
Time
Control Charts - ‘Special Causes’
6 3.0SL=1011
6
2 2
950 2 2
X=936.9
2 2 22 2
22 2 2
6 2 2
66 2
5 -3.0SL=862.8
850 1 1
0 10 20 30 40 50
Observation Number
Chart Types
There are several different types of chart
Variable, or measured data Charts
individual data charts
mean
Range
Attribute, or counted data Charts
Number of non-conforming units in samples of
constant size np chart
Proportion of non-conforming units in samples of
varying size p chart
Number of non-conformities in samples of
constant size c chart
Number of non-conformities per unit in samples of
varying size u chart
Control Charts & DMAICR
Control charting can be used at various
points in the DMAICR process
During Analyse to check on rational
subgroups and process stability
During Control to help ensure process
changes are maintained
In most situations control charts are applied
during Control and therefore they will be
covered in more detail in Module 3
Coffee Break - 10 minutes
Grouping ANALYSE
the Root Causes STEP 9
The Ishikawa or
Cause and Effect X X
diagram
People Equipment
X Environment Effect Y
Effect
Reminder on
Y2X
Reminder of Y2X
C S
u u
s p
t p
o
Output Y’s Process l
m Input X’s i
X’s
e e
r r
s Y = f (X1 . . .XN) s
The challenge:
Identify which of the possible X’s substantially
impact the Y.
CTQ’s to Y’s to X’s ANALYSE
STEP 9
X measures Y measures
The process and input measures The process output measures
that will influence the size of Y. relating to that CTQ
Y is a function of X1, X2, X3 etc.
CTQ’s and Y’s and X’s
Voice of Customer
“I want to have a hot mug of coffee”
Issue
“Customer wants a mug of coffee which
they can start to drink within 1 minute
of being seated.”
CTQ
Mug of coffee needs to be 54 + 2 oC at table.
Y Measure
Temperature of coffee at centre of mug, 5 cms from bottom
of mug, at point of pouring.
X Measures
X1 - temperature of water used to make coffee in oC.
X2 - temperature of milk used to make coffee in oC.
X3 - ratio of hot water volume to milk volume.
X4 - time from pouring coffee to point of sale in seconds.
Identify the Vital Few ANALYSE
STEP 9
BeltM2D2 -51
Y2X Matrix ANALYSE
STEP 9
e ss
r oc es
l
/t P iab
p u ar
In V
Input/ Process
Output Measures X1 X2 X3 X4 Measures
Y1
Y2
Y3
Measure the
key X’s
Measure the
Y’s
Process
Outputs
Exercise 4 - CTQ’s, Y’s and X’s
You are required to explain to a
group of directors the
importance of CTQ’s and to
show how these are related to
Y’s and X’s.
Illustrate your explanation with
a Y2X matrix for your project,
indicating the strengths of the
relationships you suspect exist
between the Y’s and the X’s.
Be prepared to present your
explanation to the whole
25 minutes group.
Lunch Break
Analyse Process Summary
Collected Process
Data Info
Purpose: To identify
and quantify the root
Step 9 causes of current
Summary
Identifying performance limitations of Analyse
causes outcomes
Step 10
Verifying
causes
Step 11 •Data Displayed
Prioritising •Process analysed
Causes •Vital few root causes
selected
Verifying Causes ANALYSE
- What is done? STEP 10
Purpose
To apply common sense and business
knowledge to eliminate the unlikely causes
and then to use analysis techniques to
identify the real ‘prospects’.
Deliverables
A structured list of root causes that have now
been validated as real causes.
Narrowing down the Suspects
… Quantify and
verify the vital few
Process for Verifying ANALYSE
Causes STEP 10
C C
E
C C
Verified
‘Verified’ Causes Root
Causes
Segmenting the Data
(Common Factors)
Factor Example
What Type Complaints, Defects, Problems
When Year, Month, Week, Day
Where Country, Region, City, Work Site
Who Business, Department, Individual
Multi-vari Charts: Call Centre Example
Displaying different response times by employee
22 O O X Answer call
21 O O Complete call
Response time
20 O O
O O
19
18 X O X X O
17 O X
16 X O O
15 X X
14 X X
13 X
12 X X
A B C D E F G H I J K L
Call centre staff
Correlation and Regression
Correlation and regression are statistical
techniques for determining the existence and
nature of relationships between two or more
variables
Remember
# Defects
(Y)
Low
Low High
Speed (X)
70 70
Population 60 60
(In Thousands)
50 50
100 200 300
Number Of Storks
Correlation Between Number Of Storks And Human Population
Source: Box, Hunter, Hunter. Statistics For Experimenters. New York: John Wiley & Sons. 1978.
Quantifying the Strength
of the Relationship
The Correlation Coefficient ‘R’ measures the
strength of linear relationships.
# Defects
(Y)
Low
Low Speed (X) High
Outputs include:
the regression equation;
a ‘p’ value (if p < 0.05 then the regression is
statistically significant)
the r-squared value - the percentage of the
variation in ‘Y’ explained by the variation in
the X’s included in the regression equation
identification of any unusual values
Design of
Experiments
The Situation ANALYSE
STEP 10
Process/
Output Y Product Input X’s
X’s
Y = f (X1 . . .XN)
There are many cases where the output from a
process or a critical characteristic of a product
(the Y) could be, or is, affected by a number of
parameters (the X’s).
Y = f (X1 . . .XN)
What is f - the relationship between the X’s
Y Y Y Y
X1 X2 X3 X4
OK
- But will not identify any interactions
between the X’s, that is
Main Effect
100 100 Main Effect
Yield % Yield %
60 60
20 20
70 80 90 10 20 30
Temperature C Pressure psi
Pressure Pressure
100 20 psi 100 20 psi
Yield % 10 psi 10 psi
60 Yield % 60
30 psi
20 20
70 80 90 70 80 90
Temperature C Temperature C
No interaction Interaction temperature and pressure
are not independent of each other.
Example 2x2 DoE ANALYSE
STEP 10
DESIGN EXPERIMENT
Run Factor Factor
A B Temp Press Strength
1 1 1 100 250 275
2 1 2 100 300 285
3 2 1 120 250 270
4 2 2 120 300 325
Analysis of Means ANALYSE
STEP 10
300 300
Strength
Strength
290 290
280 280
270 270
320
310
300
Strength
290
280
270
100 120
Temperature
300
Pressure
250
In general
2 levels & 2 factors = 4 experiments
With highlight 5 4
Without highlight 14 10
Without checklist With checklist
Rubik meets DOE in Minitab ANALYSE
STEP 10
12
14
The Top and Bottom... ANALYSE
STEP 10
5 4
At the back
2 11 of the cube,
all these
include a
good
example
12 8
2 11
5 4
Where they meet
12 8 one another, you
have the various
14 combinations
10 shown in the
table.
Levels and factors again... ANALYSE
STEP 10