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Belt Training

Module 2 - Day 2
Today’s Agenda
Day 1 Day 2 Day 3
0830
Analyse: Step 9 Hypothesis tests

Graphing and Variance tests


1000 Learning points Minitab
Analyse Intro Analyse: Step 11
Analyse: Step 9 prioritising
Process analysis causes
1230
1330 Lunch Lunch Lunch
The improved
process Analyse: Step 11
Analyse: Step 10
1500 Data refresher verifying causes Benchmarking

Minitab Intro Solving overview


Design of
Process analysis
1830 Experiments
Schematic of the Analyse Phase

Possible Causes
Process Collected
Info. Data
Identify all likely causes

Verify actual causes

Prioritise
Process Tools the vital few
Data Tools
causes
Yesterday Today
Approaches to Identifying ANALYSE
Causes STEP 9

 Process Analysis-
Mapping, Moments of Truth (MoT’s), Cycle Time,
Value Added Analysis

 Data Analysis-
Grouping data, Charting data, Checking
Normality, Applying upper and lower limits,
Understanding capabilities, Looking for Special
Causes, etc.for this second approach:
New tools
 Minitab Tools to help in the analysis
 Ishikawa (Fishbone or Cause & Effect) Diagram
Process for Data ANALYSE
Analysis STEP 9

Plot the Data Histogram

Check Distribution Normal Probability Plot


(If not normal obtain specialist help)

Determine Process Capability Plots


Capability

Check for Special


Control Charts
Iterate Causes

Check Gauge R&R Gauge R & R


(if not done in previous step)

Suspect
Suspects Listed Root
Causes
Real Example of ANALYSE
Data Analysis STEP 9

Plot Data and check Plot showed a bell curve.


for Normality Normality check showed it OK.

Perform Capability
Revealed that capability indices low.
Analysis

Draw Control Chart Showed process not stable


(Xbar and R) and variation between batches.

Showed unacceptable variation between


Check Guage R&R operators. Measurement method
improved and operators re-trained.
Perform new
Process now stable, but not centred.
Capability Analysis

Design of Testing the relationship between X’s


Experiments and Y’s, so process can be modified.
Belt Training

Refresher on
Gauge R&R
Gauge R&R

 Tool used to assess the consistency and


stability (known as repeatability and
reproducibility) of the measuring system.
 Checks how much the measurement system is
contributing to process variability.
 There are two levels of tool, use the basic one
wherever possible.

Repeatability - The variation when one operator


uses the same system.
Reproducibility - The variations when different
operators use the same system.
Sources of Process Variation
Observed
Process Variation

Actual part to part Measurement


Variation Variation

Long term Short term Within part


variation variation variation Operator Gauge
eg out of round variation variation
(reproducibility)

Repeatabilit
y
Accuracy

 2
Total  2
part  part  2
R& R ? Stability

Linearity
Calibration

 Gauge calibration provides accuracy


assurance.
 Linearity and stability can be confirmed by
calibration but are due to the “physics” of the
measurement system and need to be taken
into account.
 Reproducibility and repeatability are assured
by gauge R&R studies.
Standards

What is acceptable?
 Acceptable < 20% (some suggest this should

be 10%)

 Marginal - 20% to 29%

 Unacceptable > 29% (some suggest > 25%)

Marginal cases should be considered for a gauge


improvement. Unacceptable requires a “new”
measurement system
Measurement Variation and Total Variation

Observed process True Process


variation variation

LSL USL
Measurement Variation Risks
Measurement
variation
Probability of
incorrectly rejecting
a good part
A COST ISSUE

Observed process True Process


variation variation

Good part’s
LSL true value USL
Measurement Variation Risks
Probability of Measurement
incorrectly accepting variation
a bad part
A COMPLIANCE ISSUE

Observed process True Process


variation variation

Bad part’s
true value
LSL USL
% Study and % Tolerance
% of study represents the ability of the gauge to distinguish
part to part differences - useful for process control
% of tolerance represents the ability of the gauge to accept or
reject part

LSL USL LSL USL


Gauge Variation = 25% Gauge Variation = 55%
Tolerance Tolerance
Gauge Variation = 50% Gauge Variation = 25%
Total Variation Total Variation
Gauge R & R for Variables
 Take N ( < 10) units of output, then in random
sequence:
 Measure and record the required output variable
for each.
 Repeat with the same N units in a different
random sequence.
 Repeat this twice with 2 other individuals doing
the measuring.
 Run Minitab to establish any differences between
the 3 distributions from the 3 people; and the
differences between the same individual.
 Gauge R&R is the sum of the two results.
Gauge R & R for Attributes

 A more stringent approach is required for


attribute data (pass - fail).
 Select a full range of process output (> 20) from
good to bad.
 Use two people to check the output twice in a
random order.
 Tabulate results.
 Gauge R & R is acceptable if all four sets of
results agree.
Transactional Attribute Gauge R&R
 Repeatability - does the same person consistently
code the paperwork in the same way?
 Reproducibility - is the same paperwork coded in
the same way by different people?
 Gauge R&R - introduce intentional defects into the
system and record the % captured by the
measurement system.

 Often attribute measurement systems are


concerned with visual inspection. One approach
to improve Gauge R&R is to use a physical mask
to reduce the inspection area.
Causes of poor Gauge R&R
 Many causes - but include:
 poor training
 unclear measurement procedures
 calibration anomalies
 poor fixtures for measurement
 poor sample
 inadequate resolution of measurement system
 lack of randomisation in measurement order
 etc
Belt Training

Refresher on
Graphing and
Plotting
Graphing
In this step (identifying causes) Graphing can be
used to:

 Plot data to identify the pattern of variation:


 Histograms
 Box Plots
 Plot data to show development over time and
identify causes of variation:
 Run Charts
 Control Charts

In the next step Graphing can be used to


verify causes and to size causes.
Histograms

50

40
Frequency

30

20

10

36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
alldata

What can you say about this data?


Histograms

30
Frequency

20

10

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
Alldata

..and what about this data?


Histograms

4
Frequency

2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4
Yield

..and what about this data?


Box Plots
Highest Value

Third Quartile (75%)


 The Box Plot shows
Median the range values and
gives a simple picture
Mean  of the variation.
First Quartile (25%)  Note that the
distribution is not
symmetrical.

Lowest Value
The Run Chart

16

14
Hours to process

x x
12 x x x

10 x x
x
8 x x

4
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Sample number
x - person A x - person B
Belt Training

Control Charts
Control Charts
 To reduce variation, its
Variation can be modelled
cause must be found.
by probability density
 Control charts are an
functions like the normal
approach for the distribution.
measurement and
analysis of process
variation. Variation
 Control charts do not
control, but provide Variation

information for
control.
Variation
Process Variation
The Shewhart Concept of Variation

Time Time

Uncontrolled Variation is a Controlled Variation is a


changing pattern of variation stable and consistent pattern
over time that is attributable of variation over time that can
to “special causes”. be attributed to “common
causes”.
Control Charts and Special Causes

 Control charts identify if special causes are


present (so that they can be investigated and
removed).
 If only common causes are present the
process is said to be in control.
 An in-control process still has variation in the
output, but it is predictable.
 Variation reduction now concentrates on
eliminating common causes, to make the
process more capable.
Control Charts and Common Causes

 Identify trends and patterns and determine


whether these are desirable - if not take
action to stabilise process.

 Stable processes under control


Consider whether they meet customer
requirements. If not, determine whether the
problem is excessive variation or
unacceptable average performance.
Control Charts
Time when special Process out of control,
cause occurred special causes present

Upper Control Limit


Measurement

Average

Lower Control Limit


Control limits = Average ± 3standard deviations

Time
Control Charts - ‘Special Causes’

There are a number of key tests:


 Outliers - single points beyond the control limits
 Number of points in a row:
 on the same side of the centre line
 all increasing or decreasing
 alternating up and down
 within one standard deviation from the centre line
 Proportion of points in clusters:
 more than one standard deviation from the centre
 ditto for two standard deviations

..these tests can be hard by eye, but easy with Minitab.


Special Causes as Shown by Minitab

I Chart for Weight


1050 1 11
1
Individual Value

6 3.0SL=1011
6

2 2
950 2 2
X=936.9

2 2 22 2
22 2 2
6 2 2
66 2
5 -3.0SL=862.8
850 1 1

0 10 20 30 40 50
Observation Number
Chart Types
There are several different types of chart
 Variable, or measured data Charts
 individual data charts
 mean
 Range
 Attribute, or counted data Charts
 Number of non-conforming units in samples of
constant size np chart
 Proportion of non-conforming units in samples of
varying size p chart
 Number of non-conformities in samples of
constant size c chart
 Number of non-conformities per unit in samples of
varying size u chart
Control Charts & DMAICR
 Control charting can be used at various
points in the DMAICR process
 During Analyse to check on rational
subgroups and process stability
 During Control to help ensure process
changes are maintained
 In most situations control charts are applied
during Control and therefore they will be
covered in more detail in Module 3
Coffee Break - 10 minutes
Grouping ANALYSE
the Root Causes STEP 9

Suspect From Suspect From


Root Process Root Data
Causes Analysis Causes Analysis

Record causes in Ishikawa Diagram -


a structured manner PEMME or Affinity Headers
C C
E
C C
As the verification proceeds, false and minor
causes can be eliminated from the diagram.
Ones which are thought to be major
can be annotated.
Putting Some Flesh ANALYSE
on the Bones STEP 9

The Ishikawa or
Cause and Effect X X
diagram
People Equipment

X Environment Effect Y

Add the suspect


causes from the
process analysis
and the data
Methods Materials
analysis.
X X
Alternative Flesh ANALYSE
on the Bones STEP 9

Headings taken from


the original
X X
Affinity Diagram
Heading 1 Heading 2
Bones taken from the
Process and Data
Analyses
Effect

Heading 3 Heading 4 Heading 5


X X X
Exercise 3 - Ishikawa Diagrams
 Consider a milestone
review and the
presentation to the
champion. Develop
an Affinity Diagram
for the causes of a
poor presentation.

 Use the Affinity


Diagram as the basis
for developing an
Ishikawa Diagram.
Refresher on
Affinity Diagrams
Sorting the Post-Its
Agreeing the Affinity Headers

 Take your time - this is important.


 What is the central theme?
 It might be one of the existing post-its.
 It might be the cluster has more than one
central theme, in which case you should
separate it into two clusters.
 The description must be specific and
consistent.
 The header must stand on its own.
Using the Ishikawa to
Structure the Output
Headings taken from X X
the Affinity Diagram
Heading 1 Heading 2
Bones taken from the
individual post-its from
the Affinity Diagram

Effect

Heading 3 Heading 4 Heading 5


X X X
Belt Training

Reminder on
Y2X
Reminder of Y2X
C S
u u
s p
t p
o
Output Y’s Process l
m Input X’s i
X’s
e e
r r
s Y = f (X1 . . .XN) s

 Y is the response variable - or output.


 Y is affected by a number of factors - the X’s.
 X’s are the measures of the inputs or activities in
the process.

The challenge:
 Identify which of the possible X’s substantially
impact the Y.
CTQ’s to Y’s to X’s ANALYSE
STEP 9

Voice of Customer Their key issues in


‘their speak’

The key issues in


Issues ‘our speak’

The key issues expressed in


CTQ’s a way that can be measured

X measures Y measures
The process and input measures The process output measures
that will influence the size of Y. relating to that CTQ
Y is a function of X1, X2, X3 etc.
CTQ’s and Y’s and X’s
 Voice of Customer
“I want to have a hot mug of coffee”
 Issue
“Customer wants a mug of coffee which
they can start to drink within 1 minute
of being seated.”
 CTQ
Mug of coffee needs to be 54 + 2 oC at table.
 Y Measure
Temperature of coffee at centre of mug, 5 cms from bottom
of mug, at point of pouring.
 X Measures
X1 - temperature of water used to make coffee in oC.
X2 - temperature of milk used to make coffee in oC.
X3 - ratio of hot water volume to milk volume.
X4 - time from pouring coffee to point of sale in seconds.
Identify the Vital Few ANALYSE
STEP 9

Y = f (X1, X2, ..., Xn)

The key activity now is to identify the vital few


process inputs and variables (Xs) that have most
affect on the output measures (Ys).

Then to develop and implement solutions that


drive improved performance on these vital few.
But how do we link Y to X? ANALYSE
STEP 9

 The two main approaches are:

 Use common sense to match process and


input measures with output measures
using an ‘L’ matrix. These will then need to
be verified.
 Measure and then plot output data against
input or process data and see whether they
appear to be correlated (using a scatter
diagram, to be discussed later).

BeltM2D2 -51
Y2X Matrix ANALYSE
STEP 9

e ss
r oc es
l
/t P iab
p u ar
In V

Input/ Process
Output Measures X1 X2 X3 X4 Measures
Y1
Y2
Y3

Key: Strong Relationship Moderate Relationship Weak


Relationship
Getting the Balance of Measures ANALYSE
STEP 9

Measure the Inputs


Y = f (X1, X2, X3 ..) key X’s?

Measure the
key X’s

Measure the
Y’s
Process

Outputs
Exercise 4 - CTQ’s, Y’s and X’s
 You are required to explain to a
group of directors the
importance of CTQ’s and to
show how these are related to
Y’s and X’s.
 Illustrate your explanation with
a Y2X matrix for your project,
indicating the strengths of the
relationships you suspect exist
between the Y’s and the X’s.
 Be prepared to present your
explanation to the whole
25 minutes group.
Lunch Break
Analyse Process Summary
Collected Process
Data Info
Purpose: To identify
and quantify the root
Step 9 causes of current
Summary
Identifying performance limitations of Analyse
causes outcomes
Step 10
Verifying
causes
Step 11 •Data Displayed
Prioritising •Process analysed
Causes •Vital few root causes
selected
Verifying Causes ANALYSE
- What is done? STEP 10

Purpose
 To apply common sense and business
knowledge to eliminate the unlikely causes
and then to use analysis techniques to
identify the real ‘prospects’.
Deliverables
 A structured list of root causes that have now
been validated as real causes.
Narrowing down the Suspects

Initial analysis generates the usual


suspects...

Segmentation; scatter diagrams;


regression; ANOVA; design of
experiments ….

… Quantify and
verify the vital few
Process for Verifying ANALYSE
Causes STEP 10

C C
E
C C

Eliminate Unreasonable Checking with users.


or illogical causes Common Sense

Further Data Needed Collect data

Graphing and Plotting


Iterate
Correlation/Regression
Verify the Causes
Hypothesis Testing
Design of Experiments

Verified
‘Verified’ Causes Root
Causes
Segmenting the Data
(Common Factors)

Factor Example
What Type Complaints, Defects, Problems
When Year, Month, Week, Day
Where Country, Region, City, Work Site
Who Business, Department, Individual
Multi-vari Charts: Call Centre Example
Displaying different response times by employee

22 O O X Answer call
21 O O Complete call
Response time

20 O O
O O
19
18 X O X X O
17 O X
16 X O O
15 X X
14 X X
13 X
12 X X

A B C D E F G H I J K L
Call centre staff
Correlation and Regression
 Correlation and regression are statistical
techniques for determining the existence and
nature of relationships between two or more
variables
 Remember

Y = f(X1, X2, … , Xn)

 We are trying to determine the nature of the


function “f”
Correlation & Regression:
(Scatter Diagram)
High

# Defects
(Y)

Low
Low High
Speed (X)

Note: this can help in showing the strength


between Y and X for the Y2X Correlation
Interpreting A Scatter Diagram

Strong Positive Correlation Strong Negative Correlation No Correlation

Possible Positive Correlation Possible Negative Correlation Other Pattern


Warning!
- Correlation Does Not Imply Causation
100 200 300
80 80

70 70

Population 60 60
(In Thousands)

50 50
100 200 300
Number Of Storks
Correlation Between Number Of Storks And Human Population
Source: Box, Hunter, Hunter. Statistics For Experimenters. New York: John Wiley & Sons. 1978.
Quantifying the Strength
of the Relationship
The Correlation Coefficient ‘R’ measures the
strength of linear relationships.

 Perfect negative relationship R = –1


 No linear correlation R= 0
 Perfect positive relationship R= 1

R2 measures the percent of variation in Y,


explained by the linear relationship of X and Y.
To be useful R2 needs to be in the range:
20 - 60% for perceptual data, e.g. opinion polls
70 - 90% for physical data, e.g. dimensions.
Regression Analysis
(- the line of best fit)
Y
High

# Defects
(Y)

Low
Low Speed (X) High

Y = b0 + b1X1 where b0 = ‘where the line cuts the Y axis’

b1 = ‘the slope’ or the rate of change in Y for each change in X


Using Minitab to do Simple Regression

 Minitab enables you to do do regression


using one (linear) or several (multiple)
possible X’s.

 The regression line plot can only be done for


a single X variable at a time.

 Main effects plots are used to identify the


significant X’s
Using Minitab to do Simple Regression

Outputs include:
 the regression equation;
 a ‘p’ value (if p < 0.05 then the regression is
statistically significant)
 the r-squared value - the percentage of the
variation in ‘Y’ explained by the variation in
the X’s included in the regression equation
 identification of any unusual values

Outputs require careful interpretation!


 Some of this is beyond the scope of this
module
Tea Break - 10 minutes
Belt Training

Design of
Experiments
The Situation ANALYSE
STEP 10
Process/
Output Y Product Input X’s
X’s

Y = f (X1 . . .XN)
 There are many cases where the output from a
process or a critical characteristic of a product
(the Y) could be, or is, affected by a number of
parameters (the X’s).

 In such situations we may be interested in:


 Identifying which of the possible X’s substantially
impact on the Y
 Optimising the X’s to give the ‘best’ Y
Approaches ANALYSE
STEP 10

Y = f (X1 . . .XN)
What is f - the relationship between the X’s

 Gut feeling experiments:


judgement, experience, luck, etc, are used to
guess which X’s are important ! ! !
 One a factor at a time
 Design of Experiments
One-factor at a Time ANALYSE
STEP 10

 One approach would be to run a series of


experiments for each X against the Y

Y Y Y Y

X1 X2 X3 X4

 OK
- But will not identify any interactions
between the X’s, that is

Y may depend on X1 *X3


DoE ANALYSE
STEP 10

 Design of experiments overcomes the


drawbacks of ‘one-factor-at-a-time’ by testing
every combination of X’s.
 This identifies any interaction between the
X’s - but……...
 This can lead to many experiments, so
typically the X’s (called Factors) are tested at
a small number of values (called Levels).
 Typically the number of levels is 2 or 3!
If you drive to work….

CTQ = I want to get to work for the lowest cost


Y = miles per gallon
X1 = Speed 40mph, 50 mph
X2 = Tyre pressure 22psi, 25 psi
X3 = Fuel grade 95, 98

How many trips to find the optimum combination?


2x2 DoE ANALYSE
STEP 10

 Consider an experiment where there is two


X’s (2 Factors say A and B) each having two
experimental Levels (say 1 and 2). To cover
all combinations we need four experiments
Run Factor
A B
1 1 1
2 1 2
3 2 1
4 2 2
Analysis 2x2 DoE ANALYSE
STEP 10

 Analysis of the results is either by analysis of


means (averages) or analysis of variances.
 Analysis of means
Run Factor Result
A B
1 1 1 R1
2 1 2 R2
3 2 1 R3
4 2 2 R4
Factor A has been run twice at
level 1 so can calculate the
average for this
Average for A1 = (R1 + R2)/2
Main Effects and Interactions ANALYSE
STEP 10

Main Effect
100 100 Main Effect

Yield % Yield %
60 60

20 20
70 80 90 10 20 30
Temperature C Pressure psi

Pressure Pressure
100 20 psi 100 20 psi
Yield % 10 psi 10 psi
60 Yield % 60
30 psi
20 20
70 80 90 70 80 90
Temperature C Temperature C
No interaction Interaction temperature and pressure
are not independent of each other.
Example 2x2 DoE ANALYSE
STEP 10

 The bond strength in carbon fibre structures Y is


considered to be affected by autoclave pressure
and temperature. A 2x2 experiment was set up
run with the following results

DESIGN EXPERIMENT
Run Factor Factor
A B Temp Press Strength
1 1 1 100 250 275
2 1 2 100 300 285
3 2 1 120 250 270
4 2 2 120 300 325
Analysis of Means ANALYSE
STEP 10

Blank slide for you to record your own information.


Main Effects Plots ANALYSE
STEP 10

300 300

Strength
Strength

290 290

280 280

270 270

100 120 250 300


Temperature Pressure

Blank charts for you to record your own data.


Interaction Plots ANALYSE
STEP 10

320

310

300
Strength

290

280

270

100 120
Temperature

Blank charts for you to record your own data.


Cube Plots ANALYSE
STEP 10

300
Pressure

250

100 Temperature 120

Blank charts for you to record your own data.


Levels and Factors... ANALYSE
STEP 10

 In general
 2 levels & 2 factors = 4 experiments

 2 levels & 3 factors = 8 experiments

 2 levels & 4 factors = 16 experiments

 2 levels & 5 factors = 32 experiments

so, levelsfactors = no. of experiments

These experiments are called Full Factorial since every


combination of the X’s is considered
Full Factorial Summary ANALYSE
STEP 10

 One factor at a time


 Simple, easy to conceive
 Slow process, limited information,
distinguishing interactions
 Full factorial
 Easy to layout & analyse, shows interactions,
quantifies relationships
 Large number of runs even for small number of
factors and levels
A Business Example... ANALYSE
STEP 10

 Incorrect customer order forms are being


received - the current data shows 14% cannot
be processed as a result.

 The loans team brainstorm some ideas to


remedy the problem, including
 providing a checklist
 highlighting the key fields
 providing a ‘good example’ of a completed form
Building up the picture ANALYSE
STEP 10
 They reduce the incomplete applications
to 10% by including the checklist…
 introducing the highlighted fields and a
checklist reduces the problem to 4%

With highlight 5 4

Without highlight 14 10
Without checklist With checklist
Rubik meets DOE in Minitab ANALYSE
STEP 10

Without example With an example


2
11
5 What’s the best
4
combination?
12
8
14 10
 By incorporating the idea of a good example, we now
have 2 levels and three factors, so 8 experiments.
 Minitab presents the data in the format of a cube
On the Left... ANALYSE
STEP 10

On the left side of


the cube, there is
no checklist
2

12

14
The Top and Bottom... ANALYSE
STEP 10

At the top of the cube, all


these include highlighted
fields
2
11

5 4

At the bottom they don’t


And right at the back... ANALYSE
STEP 10

At the back
2 11 of the cube,
all these
include a
good
example
12 8

At the front, they don’t


And where they meet on ANALYSE
the corner... STEP 10

2 11

5 4
Where they meet
12 8 one another, you
have the various
14 combinations
10 shown in the
table.
Levels and factors again... ANALYSE
STEP 10

The example we did had:


 2 levels
 3 factors - the independent X variables
and there were 8 experiments
 In general:
 levelsfactors = no. of experiments
 2 levels & 3 factors = 8 experiments
 2 levels & 5 factors = 32 experiments
Before long we will need 100’s, perhaps
1000’s if we do all the experiments!
Fractional Factorial DOE ANALYSE
STEP 10

 Fractional factorial DOE’s reduce the number


of runs but at the expense of “Confounding”
 A half factorial design for 5 factors will ‘confound’
the main effects with 4 factor interactions
(e.g. factor A plus the 4 factor effects of BxCxDxE).
 Fractional Factorial DOEs attempt to confound the
main effects with higher order interactions which
are hopefully not important
 Fractional Factorial designs come in 1/2, 1/4 etc
 Fractional Factorial DOE covered in Mod 3
Design of Experiments ANALYSE
- Process STEP 10

 Designing the Experiment


1. Identify responses
2. Identify factors
3. Select design
4. Choose factor levels
5. Randomise runs
 Running the Experiment
6. Conduct Experiments and collect data
 Analysing the Experiment
7. Analyse data
8. Draw conclusions
9. Verify results
Design of Experiments ANALYSE
& Minitab STEP 10

Minitab has 3 main elements to support DoE:


 Creating the design
 Analysing the results from the designed
experiments
 Plotting the results

The analysis can be applied to existing data if available


for the full range of conditions covered by a design -
though the best results are obtained through controlled
conditions
Design of Experiments ANALYSE
- Final Points STEP 10

 Selection of designs is often a specialist


task
 So is the analysis using Minitab
 Don’t try to do it on your own, consult the 6S
Specialists for guidance first

 But, hopefully you are at least aware of the


possibilities that DoE can offer to your
project!
Belt Training

Review of the Day

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