"Techno-social Excellence"

Marathwada Mitra Mandal’s

INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY (MMIT)
Lohgaon, Pune - 411 047
"Towards Ubiquitous Computing Technology"
Computer Engineering Department

SEMINAR Topic Name:

Stock Market Analysis Using Supervised Machine Learning

TE COMP DIV A/B ROLL No: - 08

Students Name: Faculty Name:
Sahil Mulla Prof. Y. P. Warke
 Contents
• Introduction
• Literature Survey
• Objectives of System
• Problem Statement
• System Architecture Module Wise
• Algorithms Used
• Mathematical Model
• Requirement Specification(Hardware/Software)
• Advantaged & Disadvantages
• UML Diagrams- Class, Sequence, Activity Etc
• Results & Conclusion
• References 
 Introduction
 Stock market or Share market is one of the most
complicated and sophisticated way to do business.
 Financial markets are highly volatile and generate
huge amounts of data daily
 It is the most popular financial market instrument
and its value changes quickly
 Stock prices are predicted to determine the future
value of companies’ stock or other financial
instruments that are marketed on financial exchanges
 However, the stock market is influenced by many
factors such as political events, economic conditions
and traders’ expectation
MACHINE LEARNING IN STOCK
PREDICTION
 The field of Machine Learning is vast and plays a key role in a
wide range of critical applications.
 The concept of Support Vector Machines (SVM) have advanced
features that are reflected in their good generalization capacity
and fast computation.
 Predicting the stock market involves predicting the closing
prices of a company’s stock for any given number of days
ahead.
 SVM(support vector machine) can be used to perform Linear
Regression on previous stock data to predict the closing prices
using Time series forecasting and other optimization algorithms
 Literature Survey
Sr. Paper Title Publication Year and Conclusion
No Author Name
1 Machine learning as we have seen
Stock Market Kunal Pahwa till now, is a very powerful tool and
Analysis using Neha Agarwal as evitable, it has some great
Supervised Machine 14th -16th Feb 2019 application.
Learning

2 Stock Market Tejas Mankar, Tushar Based on the comparative study that
Prediction based on Hotchandani, Manish we performed, Support Vector
Social Sentiments Madhwani, Akshay Machine proved to be the most
using Machine Chidrawar, Lifna C.S efficient and feasible model in
Learning 5-5 Jan. 2018 predicting the stock price
movement, in favour of the
sentiments of the tweets
3 Survey of Stock Ashish Sharma The aim of our research study is to
Market Prediction Dinesh Bhuriya help the stock brokers and investors
Using Machine Upendra Singh for investing money in the stock
Learning Approach 18 December 2017 market.
 objectives
 To determine whether "Charting" of historical
prices for prediction of future prices.
 To evaluate the possibility of predicting the
price of a particular share by observing the
behavior of other share price series belonging
either to the same industry or to different
industries
 To analyzing the stock market data
 Problem Statement
• The stock market prediction task is interesting
as well as divides researches and academics
into two groups those who believe that i can
devise mechanisms to predict the market and
those who believe that the market is efficient
and whenever new information comes up the
market absorbs it by correcting itself thus
there is no space for prediction
 System Architecture
• Overall System Architecture
 Implementation Algorithm
Algorithm : Stock Prediction
Input : COMP, D_RANGE, N_PRED [company, date range, n-day predictions]
Output : A vector of predicted prices and graph, RESULTS
data ←fetch stock for COMP in date range D_RANGE
2. plot(data)
3. train_data ← slidingWindow(data) //perform sliding window operation on data
4. RESULTS ← 0 //set accuracy vector to zeroes
5. for each day in N_PRED :
1.model ←LSSVM(train_data) //pass the training data to LSSVM
2. pred ← predict(model,day) //predict the price given model and day
3. remove first item from train_data //removing last item and adding predicted
value
4. train_data ←add pred to train_data //Last In, First Out.
5. RESULTS ← add pred to RESULTS
6. end for
7. print(RESULTS)
8. plot(RESULTS)
9. return
 Implementation LSSVR Formulation

• Least Squares Support Vector Regression

• The least squares version of the SVM classifier is obtained by reformulating the
minimization problem as
• For the kernel function K(𝑥,𝑥𝑖) one typically has the Radial Basis Function
• • The LSSVR algorithm is a further development of SVR by Suykens (2001) and
involves equality instead of inequality constraints, and works with a least squares
objective function.
• • The LSSVR approach considerably reduces computational complexity and
increases efficiency compared to standard SVM.
• • LSSVR solves linear equations instead of a quadratic programming problem
 Future Enhancement
 The limitation of the proposed system is its computational
speed, especially with respect to sliding-window validation as
the computational cost increases with the number of forward
day predictions.
 The proposed model does not predict well for sudden changes
in the trend of stock data.
 This occurs due to external factors and real-world changes
affecting the stock market.
 i can overcome this by implementing Sentiment Analysis and
Neural Networks to enhance the proposed model.
 i can modify the same system to an online-learning system
that adapts in real-time.
 Conclusion
 Thus, as i can see above in our proposed method, i train
the data using existing stock dataset that is available. i
use this data to predict and forecast the stock price of n-
days into the future.
 The average performance of the model decreases with
increase in number of days, due to unpredictable changes
in trend.
 The current system can update its training set as each day
passes so as to detect newer trends and behave like an
online-learning system that predicts stock in real-time.
 References
[1] Andrew McCallum, Kamal Nigam, Jason Rennie, Kristie Seymore “A
Machine learning approach to Building domain-specific Search engine”,
IJCAI, 1999 - Citeseer
[2] Yadav, Sameer. (2017). STOCK MARKET VOLATILITY - A STUDY OF
INDIAN STOCK MARKET. Global Journal for Research Analysis. 6.
629-632.
[3] Montgomery, D.C., Peck, E.A. and Vining, G.G., 2012. Introduction to
linear regression analysis (Vol. 821). John Wiley & Sons.
[4] Draper, N.R.; Smith, H. (1998). Applied Regression Analysis (3rd ed.).
John Wiley. ISBN 0-471-17082-8.
[5] Robert S. Pindyck and Daniel L. Rubinfeld (1998, 4h ed.). Econometric
Models and Economic Forecasts
[6] “Linear Regression”, 1997-1998, Yale University
http://www.stat.yale.edu/Courses/1997-98/101/linreg.htm
[7] Agarwal (July 14, 2017). "Introduction to the Stock Market". Intelligent
Economist. Retrieved December 18, 2017.
Thank
You !!!