Cdar Forecast 110807

2008 Real Estate Market Forecast
November 8, 2007
California Desert AOR
Leslie Appleton-Young
C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist
The copyright laws of the United States (Title 17 U.S. Code) forbid the unauthorized reproduction of this report by any means,
including facsimile or computerized formats. Copyright © 2006, CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
California Real Estate Market: 2007
California Market Stats: 2000-2005
Four Year Housing Boom
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

SFH Resales
535.5 504.0 572.6 601.8 624.7 625.0
(thousands)
% Change -0.4% -5.9% 13.6% 5.1% 3.8% 0.04%
Median Price
$241.4 $262.4 $316.1 $372.7 $450.8 $524.0
($ thousands)
% Change 11.0% 8.7% 20.5% 17.9% 20.9% 16.2%
30 YR FRM 8.1% 7.0% 6.5% 5.8% 5.8% 5.9%
Rate of return 2.9% 1.7% 14.0% 12.1% 15.1% 10.3%
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®

Sales of Existing Detached Homes Annual Comparison
California, 2006 Sales: 477,460 Units, Down 23.6% Y-T-Y
UNITS
700,000
700,000
600,000
600,000
500,000
500,000
400,000
400,000
300,000
300,000
200,000
200,000
2005
100,000
100,000 2006
0 2007
0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Jul
Jan
Nov
Feb
Jun
Aug
pr
ct
Dec
ay
ar
Sept
O
A
M
M
SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®;
The Conference Board
Sales of Existing Detached Homes and Pacific West Consumer Confidence
California, September 2007 Sales: 271,590 Units, Down 20.9% Y-T-D, Down 38.9% Y-T-Y
2007 projected: 367,500; lowest since 1995’s 342,540
UNITS Sales Consumer Confidence INDEX
700,000 650,800 160
600,000 140
120
500,000
100
400,000
80
300,000
60
200,000
40
100,000 20
0 0
Jan-00
Jul-00
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Apr-00
Oct-00
Jan-01
Apr-01
Jul-01
Oct-01
Jan-02
Apr-02
Jul-02
Oct-02
Apr-03
Oct-03
Jan-04
Apr-04
Oct-04
Apr-05
Oct-05
Apr-06
Oct-06
Apr-07
Median Price Annual Comparison
California, 2006: $556,640, Up 6.5% Y-T-Y
$600,000
$700,000
$500,000 $600,000
$500,000
$400,000
$400,000
$300,000
$300,000
$200,000
$200,000
2007
$100,000 2005
$100,000
2006
$- $-
2002
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2003
2004
2005
2006
Jul
Jan
Feb
Jun
Aug
Nov
Apr
ct
ec
ay
ar
Sept
O
M
D
M

Median Price of Existing Detached Homes
California, September 2007: $530,830, Down 4.7% Y-T-Y
Down 9.9% M-T-M
$700,000
$600,000
$500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
$0
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-07
Sep-00
Sep-01
Jan-03
Sep-03
Sep-04
Sep-05
Jan-06
Sep-06
Sep-02
Sep-07
May-00
May-01
May-02
May-04
May-05
May-06
May-03
May-07
Variability Among Local Markets
Peak Sept-07 % Chg

Region Month Peak Price Median From Peak
High Desert Apr-06 $334,860 $271,940 -18.8%
San Francisco May-07 $853,910 $702,240 -17.8%
Sacramento Aug-05 $394,450 $325,550 -17.5%
San Luis Obispo Jun-06 $620,540 $519,740 -16.2%
Central Valley*(Aug 2007) Aug-05 $363,680 $309,740 -14.8%
Northern Wine Country Jan-06 $645,080 $551,680 -14.5%
Riverside San Bernardino Jan-07 $415,160 $356,510 -14.1%
Northern California Aug-05 $440,420 $383,330 -13.0%
Palm Springs/Lower Desert Jun-05 $393,370 $346,080 -12.0%
San Diego May-06 $622,380 $560,840 -9.9%
Orange County Apr-07 $747,260 $673,770 -9.8%
Monterey Region Aug-07 $798,210 $722,500 -9.5%
Los Angeles Aug-07 $605,300 $569,390 -5.9%
Ventura Aug-06 $710,910 $681,820 -4.1%
Santa Clara Apr-07 $868,410 $848,950 -2.2%
Lower Price Ranges Hit Hardest, but…
Percentage Change in Sales YTY
Aug-07 Sep-07
0%
Below $500,000 $500,000-999,999 Over $1 Million
-10%
-3.4%
-20%
-30% -27.7% -26.4%

-32.5%
-40% -36.4%
…Credit Crunch
slammed high
-50%
end in September
-52.4%
-60%

Annual Percent Change in Median Price
California1982-2008f
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1992
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1994
-2
-4
-6

Unsold Inventory Index
California, September 2007: 16.6 Months
MONTHS
Monthly Average Since 1988: 7.0 months
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Jan-00
Sep-00
Jan-01
Sep-01
Jan-02
Sep-02
Jan-03
Sep-03
Jan-04
Sep-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Sep-06
Jan-07
Sep-07
Sep-05
May-01
May-02
May-03
May-06
May-00
May-04
May-05
May-07
10
12
14
16
18
20
0
2
4
6
8
Jan-88
MONTHS
Jul-88
Jan-89
Jul-89
Jan-90
Jul-90
Jan-91
Jul-91
Jan-92
Jul-92
Jan-93
Jul-93
Jan-94
Jul-94
Jan-95

Jul-95
Jan-96
Jul-96
Jan-97
Jul-97
Jan-98
Jul-98
Jan-99
Jul-99
Jan-00
Jul-00
Jan-01
Jul-01
Jan-02
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
California, September 2007: 16.6 Months
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Unsold Inventory Index vs. Price Changes
California, 1982-2007
% Change Annual Median Price Unsold Inv Index (months) Long Term Avg = 7 Months
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1984
1990
1992
1996
2000
2002
1982
1986
1988
1994
1998
2004
2006
-2
-4
-6

Listings by Month, Selected Years
California (1982-2007 Average=100)
1983 1992 2004 2006 2007

200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

CA New Housing Permits: 1988 - 2007
Down 30.0% Y-T-D in 2007
300,000
Single Family Multi-Family
250,000
Household Growth: 220,000-250,000/yr
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007 YTD
SOURCE: Construction Industry Research Board
Sub-Prime Fall-out and
Foreclosures
Prime, Sub-Prime, & Other Loans
As a Percentage of All Loans Outstanding in California
Prime Conventional Subprime Conventional FHA/VA/Other
100%
90% 83%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20% 15%
10%
0%
Q1/03
Q1/98
Q1/99
Q1/00
Q1/01
Q1/02
Q1/04
Q1/05
Q1/06
Q1/07
SOURCE: Mortgage Bankers Association, C.A.R.
Prime Versus Sub-Prime Past Due
California Q2-2007
20% Conventional Prime: Past Due Conventional Subprime: Past Due
18%
16%
14%
12%
Sub-Prime Past Due: LR Avg: 7.0%
10%
8%
6%
4%
Prime Past Due: LR Avg: 1.8%
2%
0%
Q1-1999
Q1-2003
Q1-2005
Q1-2006
Q1-2007
Q1-1998
Q1-2000
Q1-2001
Q1-2002
Q1-2004
SOURCE: Mortgage Bankers Association

Foreclosures per Household
August 2007 RealtyTrac
F o re c lo s u r e s p e r
H o u s e h o ld (% )
August 2007
N a tio n = 0 .2 0 %
< 0 .1 %
0 .1 % - 0 .4 %
> 0 .4 %
N o D a ta
Source: RealtyTrac, SF Fed

Mortgage Foreclosure Rates
California: 1974 - 2006
DELINQUENCY RATE FORECLOSURE RATE
7% 2.5%
Foreclosure Rate Delinquency Rate
6%
2.0%
5%
1.5%
4%
3%
1.0%
2%
0.5%
1%
0% 0.0%
Q1/75
Q1/76
Q1/77
Q1/79
Q1/80
Q1/81
Q1/82
Q1/83
Q1/84
Q1/86
Q1/87
Q1/88
Q1/89
Q1/90
Q1/91
Q1/92
Q1/93
Q1/95
Q1/96
Q1/97
Q1/98
Q1/99
Q1/00
Q1/02
Q1/04
Q1/05
Q1/06
Q1/74
Q1/78
Q1/85
Q1/94
Q1/01
Q1/03
Mortgage Foreclosure & Delinquency Rates
California
Delinquency Rate Foreclosure Rate
7%
6%
Delinquencies: LR Avg: 3.9%
5%
4%
3%
2%
Foreclosure Rate: LR Avg: 0.81%
1%
0%
Q4/77
Q4/82
Q2/85
Q3/86
Q2/90
Q3/96
Q1/99
Q1/04
Q1/74
Q2/75
Q3/76
Q1/79
Q2/80
Q3/81
Q1/84
Q4/87
Q1/89
Q3/91
Q4/92
Q1/94
Q2/95
Q4/97
Q2/00
Q3/01
Q4/02
Q2/05
Q3/06
Notices of Default – California
Houses & Condos
2007- 2007- 2006- QTQ % YTY %

Region Q2 Q1 Q2 Change Change
Southern
California 30,828 26,748 12,271 15.3% 151.2%
San Francisco
Bay Area 7,696 6,730 2,910 14.4% 164.5%
Central Valley 12,964 11,054 4,703 17.3% 175.7%
Statewide 53,943 44,532 20,909 21.1% 158.0%
•Record High NoDs: 61,541 in Q1-1996

•Record Low NoDs: 12,417 in Q3-2007
SOURCE: Data Quick Information Systems

10%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Jan-91
Jul-91
Jan-92
Jul-92
Jan-93
Jul-93
Jan-94
Jul-94
Jan-95
Jul-95
Jan-96
Jul-96
Jan-97
Jul-97
SOURCE: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation

Jan-98
Jul-98
Jan-99
FRM
ARM
Jul-99
Jan-00
Jul-00
Jan-01
Federal Funds
Jul-01
Jan-02
Mortgage Rates
Jul-02
Jan-03
Fed cuts to 4.75% on 9/18/07
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Percent of Buyers with Zero Downpayment
First-Time Buyers vs. Repeat Buyers: 1998 - 2006
All Hom e Buyers First-Tim e Buyers
Repeat Buyers
50%
40%
40.9%
30%
21.1%
20%
10%
11.3%
0%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Percent of Buyers with Zero Downpayment
First-Time Buyers vs. Repeat Buyers: 1998 - 2007
All Hom buyers First-Time Buyers

Repeat Buyers
50%
40%
29.4%
30%
20% 17.7%
10%
10.2%
0%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
SOURCE: C.A.R. 2007 Annual Housing Market Survey

Lessons from Past Cycles
Lesson #1
1st Time Homebuyers Will Buy
60%
California
50%
40%
30.4%
30%
20%
10%
0%
81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07
Q. Was the buyer a first-time buyer?

Lesson #2: There will be fewer REALTORS
THOUSANDS Home Sales Membership

700,000 250,000
600,000
200,000
500,000
150,000
400,000
300,000
100,000
200,000
50,000
100,000
0 0
2008f
1970
1972
1976
1978
1980
1984
1990
1994
1998
1974
1982
1986
1988
1992
1996
2000
2002
2004
2006
Lesson #3: The market will recover

700,000 250,000
600,000
200,000
500,000
150,000
400,000
300,000
100,000
200,000
50,000
100,000
0 0
2008f
1970
1972
1976
1978
1980
1984
1990
1994
1998
1974
1982
1986
1988
1992
1996
2000
2002
2004
2006
Economic Fundamentals
Gross Domestic Product
Year 2006: 2.9%; 2007 2.0%
ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE, CHAIN-TYPE (2000) $
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
2008f
2007p
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
SOURCE: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Share of Total Job Growth
Q3 2003 – Q3 2006
Professional Housing
and business 23%
services1
19%
Health care
and social Retail and
assistance wholesale1
17% 23%
Other
Leisure and 16%
hospitality
16%
Source: Moody’s Economy.com

Note: 1Excluding housing
Employment Growth, California vs. U.S.
2007P: CA 1.2% US 1.3%
YEAR TO YEAR % CHANGE
6
5 California US
-1
-2
2007P
1986
1987
1992
1998
2002
2003
2004
2005
1984
1985
1988
1989
1990
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1999
2000
2001
2006
SOURCE: CA EDD, Bureau of Labor Statistics
-5.0%
-3.0%
-1.0%
1.0%
3.0%
5.0%
7.0%
Construction % Change
MFG
Trans. Whsg. &

Util.
Trade
SOURCE: CA EDD, UCLA Anderson Forecast

2005
Information
F.I.R.E.
2006
Prof Bus. Svcs.
Edu. & Hlth

Safety
2007F
California 2005-2007
Leisure &
Hosp.
Other Svcs.
Federal Gov't
Year-to-Year % Change in Jobs
State & Local

Gov't
Nonfarm Employment By Region
Nonfarm Nonfarm
Employment Employment Percent
(Thousands) August-07 August-06 Change Change
Southern California 8,545.6 8,443.6 106.4 1.3%
Bay Area 3,270.0 3,222.5 56.6 1.8%
Central Valley 2,042.1 2,019.1 30.5 1.5%
Central Coast 500.8 497.5 4.4 0.9%
North Central 144.8 142.8 3.2 2.2%
CALFORNIA 15,273.7 15,110.4 163.3 1.1%
SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division

-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Jan-91
Jul-91
Jan-92
Jul-92
Jan-93
Jul-93
Jan-94
Jul-94
Jan-95
Y-T-Y PERCENT CHANGE
Jul-95
RCE: CA Employment Development Division

Jan-96
Jul-96
Jan-97
Jul-97
Jan-98
Jul-98
Jan-99
Jul-99
Jan-00
Jul-00
Jan-01
Jul-01
Jan-02
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Nonfarm Employment
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Sacramento-Arden Arcade-Roseville MSA, August 2007: Up 1.3% Y-T-Y
Consumer Confidence Index
October 2007: 95.6 – Falling since August
INDEX, 100=1985
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
Jan-88
Jan-89
Jan-90
Jan-91
Jan-92
Jan-93
Jan-94
Jan-95
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
SOURCE: The Conference Board
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1Q-1990
1Q-1991
1Q-1992
1Q-1993
1Q-1994
SOURCE: Bureau of Economic Analysis

1Q-1995
QUARTERLY PERCENT CHANGE
1Q-1996
1Q-1997
1Q-1998
1Q-1999
1Q-2000
2007 Q2: +1.4%
1Q-2001
1Q-2002
1Q-2003
Personal Consumption
1Q-2004
1Q-2005
1Q-2006
1Q-2007
-10%
10%
15%
20%
0%
5%
-5%
Q1/89
Q3/89
Q1/90
Q3/90
Q1/91
Q3/91
Q1/92
Q3/92
Q1/93
SOURCE: CA State Board of Equalization

ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE
Q3/93
Q1/94
Q3/94
Q1/95
Q3/95
Q1/96
Q3/96
Q1/97
Q3/97
Q1/98
Q3/98
Q1/99
Q3/99
Q1/00
Taxable Sales
Sacramento County
Q3/00
Q1/01
Q3/01
Q1/02
Q3/02
Q1/03
Q3/03
Q1/04
Q3/04
Q1/05
Q3/05
Q1/06
Q3/06
Consumer Price Index
August 2007: All Items 2.0% Y-T-Y; Core 2.1% Y-T-Y
PERCENT CHANGE FROM A YEAR AGO, 100=1982-1984
16%
All Items
14%
Core
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Jan-91
Jan-97
Jan-80
Jan-81
Jan-82
Jan-83
Jan-84
Jan-85
Jan-86
Jan-87
Jan-88
Jan-89
Jan-90
Jan-92
Jan-93
Jan-94
Jan-95
Jan-96
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Economy through 2008: Razor’s Edge
Sub par economic growth (below 3.0%)

Weak but positive job growth
Unemployment rate up slightly
Inflation a concern but in check
Uncertainty about economy/credit crunch
KEY CONCERN: Will turmoil in the housing market
tip the economy into recession?
Riverside County
Economic Profile
Riverside County Profile
Characteristic Statistic State Rank

2007 Population Estimate 2,031,625 4
% Population Change 1990-2000 32.0% 4
% Population Change 1980-1990 76.48% 1
% White 2004 46.42%
% Hispanic 2004 40.35%
% Black 2004 5.36%
% Asian & Pacific Islander 2004 5.41%

2004 Per Capita Income $21,418
2004 Median Household Income $47,772
2004 Median Age 32.2
Land Area Square Miles 7,207 4
2000 Total Establishments 26,565 8
2004 Civilian Employment 836,916
Sales of Existing Detached Homes and Pacific West Consumer Confidence
Riverside County, September 2007: 514 Units, Down 37.7% Y-T-D, Down 39.2% Y-T-Y
UNITS Sales Consumer Confidence INDEX

2500 160
140
2000
120
100
1500
80
1000
60
40
500
20
0 0
Jul-91
Jan-92
Jul-92
Jul-93
Jul-94
Jan-95
Jul-95
Jan-96
Jul-96
Jul-97
Jan-98
Jul-98
Jan-99
Jul-99
Jan-00
Jul-00
Jan-01
Jul-01
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jul-04
Jul-05
Jul-06
Jul-07
Jan-90
Jul-90
Jan-91
Jan-93
Jan-94
Jan-97
Jan-02
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Sales of Existing Detached Homes Annual Comparison
Riverside County, 2006: 13,717 Units, Down 23.9% Y-T-Y
UNITS
25,000 2,000
1,800
20,000 1,600
1,400
15,000 1,200
1,000
10,000 800
600
2006
5,000 400 2004
200 2005
2007
0 0
1989
1991
1997
2003
2005
1993
1995
1999
2001
Jul
Jan
Jun
Feb
Nov
Aug
ct
Apr
Dec
ay
ar
Sept
O
M
M
Median Price of Existing Detached Homes
Riverside County, September 2007: $374,830, Down 9.4% Y-T-Y
$500,000
$450,000
$400,000
$350,000
$300,000
$250,000
$200,000
$150,000
$100,000
$50,000
$0
Jul-90
Jan-92
Jul-93
Jan-94
Jan-95
Jan-98
Jul-98
Jan-99
Jan-02
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-90
Jan-91
Jul-91
Jul-92
Jan-93
Jul-94
Jul-95
Jan-96
Jul-96
Jan-97
Jul-97
Jul-99
Jan-00
Jul-00
Jan-01
Jul-01
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jul-04
Jul-05
Jul-06
Jul-07
Median Price Annual Comparison
Riverside County, 2006: $415,008, Up 5.3% Y-T-Y
$450,000 $500,000
$400,000 $450,000
$350,000 $400,000
$350,000
$300,000
$300,000
$250,000
$250,000
$200,000
$200,000
$150,000
$150,000
$100,000 2006
$100,000
2004
$50,000 $50,000 2005
2007
$- $-
1993
1999
2003
1989
1991
1995
1997
2001
2005
Jul
Jan
Feb
Jun
Aug
Nov
ct
Apr
Dec
ay
ar
Sept
O
M
M
Median Home Sales Price
Riverside County
Yearly %
S ep-07 Sep-06
C hange
Banning $265,000 $280,000 -5.4%
Beaumont $333,000 $400,500 -16.9%
Cathedral City $290,000 $370,000 -21.6%
Corona $500,000 $580,000 -13.8%
Des ert Hot Springs $259,000 $295,000 -12.2%
Hemet $289,000 $320,000 -9.7%
Indio $355,000 $390,000 -9.0%
La Quinta $445,000 $500,000 -11.0%
Lake Els inore $379,000 $418,750 -9.5%
Menif ee $351,750 $439,000 -19.9%
Moreno V alley $334,250 $389,500 -14.2%
Murrieta $405,000 $476,500 -15.0%
Palm Des ert $365,000 $407,500 -10.4%
Palm Springs $341,000 $395,000 -13.7%
Perris $324,000 $395,000 -18.0%
Ranc ho Mirage $691,000 $677,000 2.1%
Riv ers ide $399,500 $430,000 -7.1%
San Jac into $312,000 $364,750 -14.5%
SOURCE: C.A.R.; DataQuick Information Systems. The

price statistics are derived from all types of home sales --
new and existing, condos and single-family.
Median Home Sales Price
Riverside County
Yearly %
S ep-07 Sep-06
C hange
Sun City $318,000 $380,250 -16.4%
Temec ula $414,000 $510,500 -18.9%
Wildomar $381,000 $503,500 -24.3%
Winc hes ter $390,000 $475,500 -18.0%
SOURCE: C.A.R.; DataQuick Information Systems. The

price statistics are derived from all types of home sales --
new and existing, condos and single-family.
Riverside and San Bernardino Counties, September 2007: 24.9 Months
MONTHS
30
Inland Empire Riverside & San Bernardino
25
20
15
10
0
Jan-93
Jan-94
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-02
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jul-94
Jan-95
Jul-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-93
Jul-95
Jul-96
Jul-97
Jul-98
Jul-00
Jul-01
Jul-02
Jul-04
Jul-05
Jul-06
Jul-07
Foreclosures
Riverside County
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Q1/89
Q1/94
Q2/95
Q1/99
Q2/00
Q3/01
Q4/02
Q2/05
Q3/06
Q2/90
Q3/91
Q4/92
Q3/96
Q4/97
Q1/04
SOURCE: Real Estate Research Council
Proportion of Foreclosures in Housing Transfers
Riverside County
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
SOURCE: Real Estate Research Council

20%
40%
60%
0%
Jan-90
Jul-90
Jan-91
Jul-91
Jan-92
Jul-92
Jan-93
Jul-93
Jan-94
Jul-94
Jan-95
Jul-95

% OF HOUSEHOLDS THAT CAN BUY
Jan-96
Jul-96
Jan-97
Jul-97
Jan-98
Jul-98
Jan-99
Jul-99
Jan-00
Jul-00
Jan-01
Jul-01
Jan-02
Jul-02
Jan-03
Housing Affordability Index
Riverside County, December 2005: 16%
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
First-time Buyer Housing Affordability Index
Riverside County, 2nd Quarter 2007: 35%
% OF HOUSEHOLDS THAT CAN BUY

100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Q1/04
Q3/04
Q1/05
Q3/05
Q1/06
Q3/06
Q1/07
Q1/03
Q3/03

-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Jan-91
Jul-91
Jan-92
Jul-92
Jan-93
Jul-93
Jan-94
Jul-94
Y-T-Y PERCENT CHANGE
Jan-95
Jul-95
Jan-96
Jul-96
Jan-97

Jul-97
Jan-98
Jul-98
Jan-99
Jul-99
Jan-00
Jul-00
Jan-01
Jul-01
Jan-02
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Nonfarm Employment
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Riverside/San Bernardino Metropolitan Area, August 2007: Up 4.1% Y-T-Y
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Jan-90
Jul-90
Jan-91
Jul-91
Jan-92
Jul-92
Jan-93
Jul-93
Jan-94
Jul-94
Jan-95
Jul-95
Jan-96
Jul-96
Jan-97

Jul-97
Jan-98
Jul-98
Jan-99
Jul-99
Jan-00
Jul-00
Jan-01
Jul-01
Jan-02
Jul-02
Jan-03
Unemployment Rate
Jul-03
Jan-04
Riverside County, August 2007: 6.5%
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
0%
5%
-5%
10%
15%
20%
-10%
Q1/89
Q3/89
Q1/90
Q3/90
Q1/91
Q3/91
Q1/92
Q3/92
Q1/93
ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE
Q3/93
SOURCE: CA State Board of Equalization

Q1/94
Q3/94
Q1/95
Q3/95
Q1/96
Q3/96
Q1/97
Q3/97
Q1/98
Q3/98
Q1/99
Q3/99
Riverside County
Q1/00
Taxable Sales
Q3/00
Q1/01
Q3/01
Q1/02
Q3/02
Q1/03
Q3/03
Q1/04
Q3/04
Q1/05
Q3/05
Q1/06
Q3/06
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
0
Jan-88
Jul-88
Jan-89
Jul-89
Jan-90
Jul-90
Jan-91
Jul-91
Jan-92
Jul-92
Jan-93
Jul-93
Jan-94
Jul-94
SOURCE: Construction Industry Research Board

Jan-95
Jul-95
Jan-96
Jul-96
Single Family
Jan-97
Jul-97
Jan-98
Jul-98
Jan-99
Jul-99
Jan-00
Jul-00
Jan-01
Jul-01
Multi-Family
Jan-02
Jul-02
New Housing Permits
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Riverside County, September 2007: 469 Units, Down 51.5% Y-T-D
Median Price for New Homes
Riverside County 2Q07 Detached: $432,087, Attached: $285,491
$500,000
$450,000
$400,000
Detached
$350,000
Attached
$300,000
$250,000
$200,000
$150,000
$100,000
$50,000
$0
Q1/88
Q1/89
Q1/90
Q1/91
Q1/92
Q1/93
Q1/94
Q1/95
Q1/96
Q1/97
Q1/98
Q1/99
Q1/00
Q1/01
Q1/02
Q1/03
Q1/04
Q1/05
Q1/06
Q1/07
Hanley Wood
200
400
600
800
0
1000
1200
Q1/88
Hanley Wood
Q3/88
Q1/89
Q3/89
Q1/90
Q3/90
Q1/91
Q3/91
Q1/92
Q3/92
Q1/93
Q3/93
Q1/94
Q3/94

Q1/95
Q3/95
Q1/96
Q3/96
Q1/97
Q3/97
Q1/98
Q3/98
Q1/99
Q3/99
Q1/00
Q3/00
Q1/01
New Home Sales
Q3/01
Q1/02
Q3/02
Q1/03
Q3/03
Q1/04
Q3/04
Q1/05
Q3/05
Q1/06
Q3/06
Riverside County (Attached), 2007 Q2 Sales: 275 Units
Q1/07
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
0
Q1/88
Hanley Wood
Q3/88
Q1/89
Q3/89
Q1/90
Q3/90
Q1/91
Q3/91
Q1/92
Q3/92
Q1/93
Q3/93
Q1/94
Q3/94
Q1/95

Q3/95
Q1/96
Q3/96
Q1/97
Q3/97
Q1/98
Q3/98
Q1/99
Q3/99
Q1/00
Q3/00
New Home Sales
Q1/01
Q3/01
Q1/02
Q3/02
Q1/03
Q3/03
Q1/04
Q3/04
Q1/05
Q3/05
Q1/06
Q3/06
Riverside County (Detached), 2007 Q2 Sales: 2,680 Units
Q1/07
Asking Rents for Class A&B Apartments
Inland Empire, 2007 Q3: $1,159, Up 2.6% Y-T-Y
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200
$0
Q3/97
Q1/98
Q3/98
Q1/99
Q3/99
Q1/00
Q3/00
Q1/01
Q3/01
Q1/02
Q3/02
Q1/03
Q3/03
Q1/04
Q3/04
Q1/05
Q3/05
Q1/06
Q3/06
Q1/07
Q3/07
REALFACTS
Vacancy Rates for Class A&B Apartments
Inland Empire, 2007 Q3: 7.1%
VACANCY RATE
9.0%
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
1990
1993
Q1/98
Q2/00
Q1/07
Q4/95
Q2/97
Q4/98
Q3/99
Q1/01
Q4/01
Q3/02
Q2/03
Q1/04
Q4/04
Q3/05
Q2/06
REALFACTS
Population Percent Changes
Riverside County (1971-2005)
10.0%
9.0%
8.0% Riverside County

CA
7.0% Nation
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1980
1982
1983
1985
1986
1991
1992
1994
1995
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2003
2004
1971
1972
1978
1979
1981
1984
1987
1988
1989
1990
1993
1996
2002
2005
2006
SOURCE:U.S. Census Bureau;
California Department of Finance;
California Association of REALTORS®
Sources of Population Growth
THOUSANDS
120
Natural Increase
100
Net Migration
80
60
40
20
0
81
84
85
88
82
83
86
87
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
SOURCE: CA Department of Finance
Net Immigration Vs. Domestic Migration
Riverside County
THOUSANDS
60 Net Immigration
Domestic Migration
50
40
30
20
10
0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
SOURCE: CA Department of Finance

Household Relocations
Riverside County
County Outflow Inflow Net Outflow
San Bernardino, CA 7,573 8,814 (1,241)
Orange County, CA 4,404 11,363 (6,959)
Los Angeles, CA 4,118 10,019 (5,901)
San Diego, CA 3,388 8,586 (5,198)
Maricopa, AZ 1,325 470 855
Clark, NV 897 607 290
Mohave, AZ 422 110 312
Imperial, CA 309 328 (19)
Kern, CA 241 221 20
Sacramento, CA 239 222 17
Total-Top 10 22,916 40,740 (17,824)
All Migration 36,832 52,867 (16,035)
Total Number of Households 623,711
Top 10 as % of All Households -2.9%

All Net Mig as % of All Households -2.6%
ource: NAR Relocation Report 2005 – IRS Data; Item 187-06061, US Census Bureau
Where are new Riverside County
households coming from?
• Orange County (11,363)

• Los Angeles (10,019)
• San Bernardino (8,814)
• San Diego (8,586)
• Clark (607)
• Total incoming for 2005: 52,867
• Total outgoing for 2005: 36,832
• Source: NAR Relocation Report 2005 – IRS Data; Item 187-06061

Net Immigration by Ethnic Group
Riverside County (1990 Census to 2000 Census)
White, Non-Hispanic
Hispanic
Asian/Pacific Islander
Black or Afr. Amer.,

Non-Hisp.
Amer. Indian & Alaska

Native, Non-Hisp.
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Thousands
SOURCE: CA Dept. of Finance

Number of Households by Ethnicity
Riverside County (1990 Census vs. 2000 Census)
White
Hispanic
Asian/Pacific Islander
1990 2000
Black
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau

Top 10 Home Buyer Surnames
Riverside County (2005)
GARCIA
RODRIGUEZ
MARTINEZ
HERNANDEZ
LOPEZ
GONZALEZ
SANCHEZ
PEREZ
NGUYEN
RAMIREZ
0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Number of Buyers
SOURCE: DataQuick Information Systems

Population by Age Group
Thousands
500 2000
2010
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
0-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+
SOURCE: California Department of Finance;
Homeownership Rates
Riverside-San Bernardino Metropolitan Area, 2006: 68.3%
70%
65%
60%
55%
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1986
1994
1995
1996
1998
1999
2003
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1997
2000
2001
2002
2004
2005
2006
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau
Homeownership Rates by Age
Riverside County (2000 Census)
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+
SOURCE: California Department of Finance;

2008 Forecast
U.S. Economic Forecast
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007p 2008f
US GDP 2.5% 3.6% 3.1% 2.9% 2.0% 2.7%
Nonfarm Job
-0.3% 1.1% 1.7% 1.8% 1.3% 1.0%
Growth
Unemployment 6.0% 5.5% 5.1% 4.6% 4.6% 4.9%
CPI 2.3% 2.7% 3.4% 3.2% 2.9% 2.3%
Real Disposable
2.4% 3.4% 1.2% 2.6% 3.4% 3.2%
Income

California Economic Forecast
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007p 2008f

Nonfarm Job
-0.5% 1.0% 1.8% 1.9% 1.3% 0.9%
Growth
Unemployment
6.8% 6.2% 5.4% 4.9% 5.2% 5.7%
Rate
Population
1.7% 1.5% 1.3% 1.3% 1.2% 1.1%
Growth
Real Disposable
Income, % 2.1% 4.1% 1.0% 2.5% 2.6% 2.6%
Change

Sales More Volatile Than Prices
Price Stickiness in Down Market …Most Owners Don’t Sell
UNITS/MEDIAN PRICE $
700,000 Sales of Existing Detached Homes Median Price
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
1974
1980
1986
1988
1992
1994
1998
2000
2004
2006
1970
1972
1976
1978
1982
1984
1990
1996
2002
California Housing Market Forecast
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007p 2008f

SFH Resales
601.8 624.7 625.0 477.5 367.5 334.5
(thousands)
% Change 5.1% 3.8% 0.04% -23.6% -23.0% -9.0%
Median Price
$372.7 $450.8 $524.0 $556.6 $576.0 $553.0
($ thousands)
% Change 17.9% 20.9% 16.2% 6.2% 3.5% -4.0%
30-Yr FRM 5.8% 5.8% 5.9% 6.4% 6.5% 6.5%
1-Yr ARM 3.8% 3.9% 4.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.2%

Closing Comments
California’s Housing Cycles and Membership
1970-2007
700,000 250,000
600,000
200,000
500,000
150,000
400,000
300,000
100,000
200,000
50,000
100,000
0 0
2008f
1970
1972
1976
1978
1980
1984
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
1974
1982
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
California vs U.S. Median Prices
$600,000
California
$500,000
US
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
$0
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
Biggest Key To Success in 2007
-From Top Producers-
“People will not take the time to properly research and

understand the market, particularly in these conditions.
They need to know I am doing it for them, which I why I
will not reduce my marketing spending in this market.”
“Continuing to advertise on the Internet … not cutting
marketing.”
“I have earned a reputation as a market expert. I need to
really know the market statistics, so prospects know
how experienced and knowledgeable I am.”
C.A.R. 2007 Top Producer In-Depth Study

Things to Consider:
1. Get Back to Basics: Open Houses, Double Your Efforts

2. Expand Your Sphere of Influence
3. Focus – Find Your Niche
4. Don’t take listings from unrealistic sellers
5. REO/Short Sales/Auctions
6. Commercial Properties
7. First-time buyers
8. No one rings the bell when the market turns
9. People are very interested in real estate – you are the expert!
What it’s all about…
We did the impossible.....bought a house in Southern

California! Papers sent to escrow today!
Please make a note of our new address
Moving day is Sunday September 30th, so come help,
please!
3 tiny bedrooms, 1 full bath, 1 3/4 bath, laundry room, two
car garage, fire place, swimming pool, the empty lot next
door, and a lot of fixing up to do 1200 square feet
What it’s all about…
Realtor 2.0
Books
Then Now
Dating
Then Now
Job Searching
Then Now
Travel
Then Now
Rental Search
Then Now
Daily Newspaper Readership by Age Group
Percentage Of Business Generated
From The Internet
Percent with 50% or more of business lead from the Internet Mean Value
50% 44%
40%
40%
33%
30%
24%
49%
19%
20% 40%
25%
10%
15%
5%
0%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Q: What percentage of your real estate transactions

in the past 12 months originated with an Internet
contact?
“Computers and technology give REALTORS®
more control over their business”
Under 50 Years of Age 50+ Years All REALTORS®
86%
Agree 72%
91%
13%
Disagree 25%
9%
1%
3%
Not sure 0%
Q: Please tell me if you agree with the following

statement: “Computers and technology give
REALTORS® more control over their business.”
Most Important Purchase For
Your Residential Real Estate Business
-In The Last 12 Months-
None 22%
New computer 20%
Hands free cell phone 19%
Handheld Internet device 13%
Marketing, farming materials 9% Technology related

Home office/related expenses 7%
Laptop W/Wireless or WiFi Internet 6%
Coaching program 6%
Contact management software 6%
Wireless Internet for home 6%
Selected listing of highest frequency responses.

Q: What do you consider to be your most
important purchase for your real estate business
in the last 12 months?
REALTORS® Use of Technology in Field
Use of Laptop or Tablet Computer in Field
27%
2006 2007
Yes
11%
73%
No
89%
Q: Do you use your laptop computer or tablet

computer when you conduct residential real estate
business in the field?
How REALTORS® Use Laptop or Tablet
Computer in Field…
N=108 2006 2007
58%
Listing presentations 27%
38%
Keep track of business, misc. events 11%
37%
Respond to e-mail 16%
25%
Access MLS 57%
33%
To save trips to office, home 64%
25%
Access MLS 57%

Q: How do you use your laptop or tablet computer
when you conduct residential real estate business
in the field?
REALTORS® Going Wireless…
Have a handheld wireless Internet device

for your residential real estate business
22%
2007
2006 13%
Q: Do you have a handheld wireless Internet device

(e.g. Blackberry/Treo) for your residential real estate
REALTORS® Going Wireless…
Utilizing Internet Cafés, Starbucks, Hotels, Etc
2007 24%
2006 16%
2005 15%
Q: Do you use your laptop or other computer on a

Wireless or WiFi Internet connection at other locations
such as internet cafés, Starbucks, hotels, etc?
REALTORS® Responding to Emails From Clients
Instantly 28%
Within 30 Minutes 15%
Within 1 Hour 21%
Within 2 Hours 8%
Within 4 Hours 18%
1 business day 11%
Q: How often do you answer emails from clients?

REALTORS® Online Resources
-For Real Estate Information-
2004 2005 2006 2007

REALTOR.com 50% 84% 86% 80%
MLS Subscription 76% 75% 76% 76%
Office or Company Web site 57% 59% 73% 73%
Local Association Web site 74% 68% 71% 72%
Zillow.com - - - 58%
C.A.R. Web site (car.org) 78% 76% 71% 52%
Craigslist.org - - - 41%
Local newspaper or local
publication Web sites 40% 32% 49% 30%
Yahoo! Real Estate - - - 22%
Inman.com 53% 69% 22% 22%
Q: What online sources do you use to get
information about real estate?
REALTORS® Have Personal Web Sites
2007 52%
2006 58%
2005 56%
2004 52%
2003 41%
Features REALTORS® Use For Online Listings
Multiple pictures/Slide 83%

show
Virtual tour 38%
Interactive maps 29%
Mortgage/Financial 15%
calculators
Home
Valuation/Comparative
0%
Market Analysis Tools
Aided Responses
Q: Which of the following do you typically include
when you post your property listings on the Web?
REALTORS® Promote This Listings on Web
-Via Search Engines And Classified Web Sites-
Promote Listings Web Sites Used N=97
Local newspaper web site 57%
24% 53%
Yes Yahoo Real Estate
Google 31%
Craigslist.org 8%
No 76%
Q: Do you promote your listings on search engines

and classified web sites?
REALTORS® Are Engaging in “2.0”
Activities
Showcase
48%
Properties on
Realtor.com
Send Clients
Electronic
16%
Newsletter
Participate In Online
9%
Real Estate
Forums/Blogs
Greatest Technological Challenge
-REALTORS® Are Evolving-
2005 2006 2007

Keeping up with e-mail 62% 65% 67%
Reducing the amount of e-mail - - 67%
Reducing the time spent on technology - 42% 43%
Reducing the cost of technology - 28% 27%
Keeping web site current - 19% 18%
Integrating technological tools 40% 42% 16%
Getting comfortable with so much
technology 39% 41% -
E-mail issues (forwarding
multiple accounts) 31% 30% -
Multiple web site management 65% - -
Q: What do you consider the biggest technological
problem/challenge in your real estate business
currently?
www.car.org/selftest
2007 Home Buyer Study:
Internet vs. Traditional
Internet Buyers Vs. Traditional Buyers
Percentage of All Homebuyers Surveyed
Internet Buyers Traditional Buyers
80%
72% 72%
70% 70%
63%
60% 59% 56% 62%
55%
50%
40% 45% 38%

41% 44%
37%
30% 30% 28%
28%
20%
10%
0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Type of Internet Connection
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

35%
52%
Broadband 61%
71%
71%
25%
Employer's corporate T1/ other 26%
24%
business broadband 25%
26%
40%
22%
Dial-up 14%
3%
2%
0%
0%
Wireless Internet Connection 0%
1%
1%
Weeks Considered Buying A Home
Before Contacting Agent
8
7.6
7 6.3
5.8 5.8 5.9 5.8 5.8
6
5
4.0
4
3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0

2
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Number Of Homes Previewed with Agent

25
20.2
20
15.1 15.2 15.2 15.4 15.4
14.4
15
9.3
10 7.9 7.5 7.1 6.7
6.1 6.2
5
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Weeks Spent Looking For Home With Agent
9
8.0
8 7.1 7.1
7.0
6.4 6.6 6.7
7
6 5.2
5
3 2.1 2.2
2.0 2.0 1.9 2.0
2
1
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
How Did You Find Your Real Estate Agent?
Unaided Multiple Responses

90%
Internet
0%
9%
For sale signs in the neighborhood
29%
1%
Agent's farming materials
14%
0%
Prior dealings with real estate agent
43%
0%
Were referred by a friend or relative
14%
0%
Through an employer-based program
1%
Prior dealings with the company in other 0%
areas 1%
Most Important Reasons For Selecting An
Agent
Multiple Unaided Responses

66%
Seemed to be the most responsive
48%
20%
Offered best deal/lowest commission rate
52%
27%
Best prepared
38%
32%
Most qualified
17%
15%
Most knowledgeable
26%
17%
Relocation package
2%
7%
Agent's market area was where I wanted to move
7%
9%
Listing agent of the property purchased
0%
Importance Of Agent’s Response Time
In the Selection Process
Extremely 69%
Important 31%
21%
Very Important
30%
Moderately 10%
Important 24%
Not Very 0%
Important 15%
Not At All 0%
Important 0%
Internet Sites Visited As Part Of
Homebuying Process
Internet listing of a home that I was interested in 81%

Individual real estate agent's web site 80%
Realtor.com 80%
Zillow 54%
Real estate company web sites 40%
Craigslist 24%
Yahoo! Real Estate 22%
HouseValues.com 17%
ca.realtor.com 7%
Importance Of Online Features For Homebuyers OR
What to Put on Your Website
Mean Score On A 5-point Scale

Multiple Pictures/Slide Show
5 Is “Extremely Important” And 1 Is “Not At All Important” 4.8
Virtual Tours 3.8
Map/Directions 4.3
Neighborhood Profile 4.2
Agent Contact Option 4.3
Mortgage Payment Calculator 2.9

How Did You First See The Home You
Purchased?
82%
Real estate
agent
95%
18%
On your own
5%
67% saw home on the Internet

Number Of Agents Interviewed Prior To Selecting
The Agent Used In Home Purchase
1.7
Internet
buyers
2
Mean
Median
3.3
Traditional
buyers
3
Means Of Communication With Real Estate
Agent
Telephone 47%
calls
98%
81%
E-mail
0% Internet Buyers
Traditional Buyers
0%
In person
34%
0%
Fax
2%
About How Often Did You Receive
Communications From Your Real Estate Agent?
Every "x" Days
4.3
3.7
Internet buyers 3.7
3.7
4.4
6.3
Traditional 6.2
6.3
buyers
6.1
5.9
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Typical Response Time Expected from Agent

Instantly 22%
0%
Within 30 Minutes 21%
0%
Within 1 Hour 16%
58%
Within 2 Hours 17%
12%
Within 4 Hours 18%
2%
Same day 3%
14%
1 business day 3%
15%
Satisfaction With Real Estate Agent’s
Response Time
Mean Score On A 5-point Scale

5 Is “Well Surpassed Expectations” And 1 Is “Fell Way Below Expectations”
Internet buyers 4.4
Traditional buyers 2.9
First-Time home buyers 4.2
Repeat home buyers 3.5
Buyers under age 45 3.8
Buyers aged 45 & over 3.2

Satisfaction With Aspects Of Home Buying
Process
Mean Score On A 5-point Scale. 5 Is “Most Satisfied” And 1 Is “Least Satisfied”
4.7
Information on neighborhood 4.2
4.7
Understanding homebuying process 4.1
Agent's negotiating skills 4.6
3.8
Agent's aid in finding home 4.6
3.8
4.6
How well agent kept client informed 3.6
4.7
Overall process of findng home 3.8
Value received for amount paid 4.4
3.7
Overall satisfaction with agent 4.5
3.7
Reasons For Satisfaction With The Real
Estate Agent You Used
Always quick to respond 80%

56%
Worked hard on my behalf 71%
62%
Negotiated good deal on my behalf 52%
59%
Helped find the best home for me 49%
47%
Listened to what we needed 40%
53%
Kept me up to date on transaction 21%
27%
Made sure changes, repairs were 1%
taken care of 3%
From the bookshelf…
By Alan Deutschman
Thank You
lesliea@car.org

Cdar Forecast 110807

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2008 Real Estate Market Forecast

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®

UNITS Sales Consumer Confidence INDEX

700,000 650,800 160

SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®

Peak Sept-07 % Chg

-30% -27.7% -26.4%

SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®

SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®

SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®

SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®

1983 1992 2004 2006 2007

SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®

Prime Conventional Subprime Conventional FHA/VA/Other

20% Conventional Prime: Past Due Conventional Subprime: Past Due

SOURCE: Mortgage Bankers Association

Source: RealtyTrac, SF Fed

2007- 2007- 2006- QTQ % YTY %

Central Valley 12,964 11,054 4,703 17.3% 175.7%

Statewide 53,943 44,532 20,909 21.1% 158.0%

•Record High NoDs: 61,541 in Q1-1996

SOURCE: Data Quick Information Systems

SOURCE: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation

All Hom buyers First-Time Buyers

SOURCE: C.A.R. 2007 Annual Housing Market Survey

Q. Was the buyer a first-time buyer?

THOUSANDS Home Sales Membership

THOUSANDS Home Sales Membership

Source: Moody’s Economy.com

Trans. Whsg. &

SOURCE: CA EDD, UCLA Anderson Forecast

Prof Bus. Svcs.

Edu. & Hlth

State & Local

SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division

RCE: CA Employment Development Division

SOURCE: Bureau of Economic Analysis

SOURCE: CA State Board of Equalization

Sub par economic growth (below 3.0%)

Characteristic Statistic State Rank

% Asian & Pacific Islander 2004 5.41%

UNITS Sales Consumer Confidence INDEX

SOURCE: C.A.R.; DataQuick Information Systems. The

SOURCE: C.A.R.; DataQuick Information Systems. The

SOURCE: Real Estate Research Council

SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®

% OF HOUSEHOLDS THAT CAN BUY

SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®

SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division

SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division

SOURCE: CA State Board of Equalization

SOURCE: Construction Industry Research Board

SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®;

SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS®;

8.0% Riverside County

SOURCE: CA Department of Finance

Top 10 as % of All Households -2.9%

• Orange County (11,363)

• Source: NAR Relocation Report 2005 – IRS Data; Item 187-06061

Black or Afr. Amer.,

Amer. Indian & Alaska

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160