3 key trends in Defense and IT in the coming 5 years

Pr. Remus Titiriga, PhD

Malta teleconference , 28th January 2020

The future will be science but not science-fiction...

anonymous

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Orientation
Most of the trends analysed bellow are related to developements in
ICTs (such as cloud computing, data mining, etc,) created, on a deeper
level, by fundamental breackthroughs in Artificial Intelligence (Deep
learning) as key technology.

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 Methodology
US Defense techologies were created and developed in the past two
decenies, before spreading throughout the modern society
(Internet, GPS, self-driving cars, etc.).

We shall extrapolate such developements to future security-technological

trends based again on US defense recent evolutions. We are using open/
public documentary ressources (DARPA's programs, white papers on US
military strategy, public initiativs in relation to US defence, etc).

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Just a frame not a trend-Pentagon’s cloud migration as enabler of AI
implementations
The US Department of Defense (DoD) unveils its cloud initiative strategy for
migrating its computing and storage functions to the cloud with “multiple
cloud platforms.”
JEDI (Joint Enterprise Defense Infrastructure) is a general purpose
hibrid cloud realizing a “worldwide, highly available, exponentially elastic,
secure, resilient cloud computing and storage environment that seamlessly
extends from the homefront to the tactical edge.”
JEDI is not the first or the largest cloud services contract signed by DoD. In
fact, the Pentagon has been steadily moving its activities to the cloud for
years and the DoD is one of the largest multi-cloud environments in the
world (over 500 clouds).
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This shift to cloud computing is a facilitator of Artificial intelligence
(deep learning)
The Joint Artificial Intelligence Center, a newly founded entity at
Pentagon is leading the way.
Our guess--the shift would facilitate, besides the use of military data to train
neural networks, the implememtation of Auto-ML, a special case of the
meta-learning or learning how to learn.
Alongside gathering personal data and using it to train accurate models of
individual and collective human behavior, the meta-learning must gather
data about how different AI algorithms with diverse configurations have
applied to various real-world problems. The Pentagon would internalize a
process that Google, for example, seems to master today.
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integration in military defence

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 Sub-topic of the trend:the growing autonomy of robots linked to latest
AI developments
Autonomy Levels for Unmanned Systems (ALFUS) model of
autonomy:conclusion -real complete autonomy is a far dream

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 The first autonomous UMV: ACTUV
(Anti-Submarine Warfare Continuous Trail Unmanned Vessel)
A 140-ton ship that is 132 feet long, making it the largest unmanned ship ever built, with a
speeds of twenty-seven knots. Why such a system? “The Sea Hunter will approximately
cost $15,000 to $20,000 per day to operate, whereas the average costs of operating a
guided-missile destroyer with anti-submarine warfare capabilities are around $700,000 per
day.”

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 From the Sea Hunter(ACTUV) to NOMARS

 With ACTUV, the US Navy will be equipped with an anti-submarine

detection system (autonomous submarine ‘hunters’), much cheaper than
any diesel submarine. It integrates highly autonomous navigational tasks
within missions spanning thousands of kilometers of range and months of
duration. It also includes autonomous compliance with maritime laws and
conventions for safe navigation, autonomous system management for
operational reliability, and even, autonomous interaction with an
intelligent adversary.
 On the next step, DARPA's the No Manning Required Ship (NOMARS)
program will implement the US Navy plans for “a fleet of 10 corvette-
sized large unmanned surface vessels (LUSV) within the next five years to
assist its main manned fleet by completing ‘dull, dirty, or dangerous’
missions.”
 Obs. A corvette is the smallest “blue water/deep water” naval vessel,
between 65 and 125m in length and weighing between 500 and 3000 tons.

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 NOMARS specifications
The presence of humans is taken completely out of the equation — there will be
no one there to make repairs, the use of space is completely redesigned
without the need for crew safety or comfort. Hence DARPA is following two
research tracks:
 Track A (Integrated Sea-frame Design and Maintenance): will create a

framework to evaluate potential design trades against performance

requirements, both in terms of the design of the human-less sea-frame, as well
as the maintenance architectures that would be needed to operate the sea-
frame.
 Track B (Enabling Sub-system Technologies): will allow for agile

development of relevant subsystem technologies, with a focus on self-

adaptive health management for systems relevant to and of similar
complexity as that associated with the hull, mechanical, and electrical
systems of a sea-frame.

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 Ground AWS-semi-autonomous systems acting like wing-men
The U.S. Army has announced contracts to build Robotic Combat Vehicles-
four light (RCV Light) and four medium (RCV Medium) sized robotic
tanks. The new combat vehicles will have cutting-edge features such as a
remote turret for the 25mm main gun or more lethality weapon systems,
360-degree situational awareness cameras and enhanced remote stations.
They will also be able to keep pace with infantry and other armored
vehicles during off-road maneuver and movement on paved streets and
highways

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 Subtopic of the trend -integration of autonomous systems and military
personel on the physical level, illustration of battlefield network

Each individual drone and ground robot needs its own narrow AI to navigate
over terrain, analyze data from its sensors, and communicate with the rest of
the force.
A battlefield networks have to overcome problems no commercial system
faces, such as electronic warfare, decoy or jamming transmissions. New
satellites, mostly in Low Earth Orbit (LEO), will spot distant targets, relay
long-distance communications and provide precision guidance and
navigation even when GPS is jammed. It can use commercial constellations
or launching its own low-cost LEO small-satellite efforts already well
underway in both the Air Force and the new Space Development Agency.

Finally, AI will rapidly sort through the massive influx of data to help human
analysts and commander pick out targets and the best weapons to strike
them (see next slide and the next trend).

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 *Second trend-integration of all elements-AI enhanced situational
awareness

Probably the most complex and critical task of the AI (not accomplished yet)
is to condense all information into a single picture of the tactical situation that a
human commander can understand-the situational awareness.

Developing an AI that can synthesize data in this way for the real world is
a major effort. AI must can combine intelligence, sensor data, and operational
command-and-control information — such as where friendly units are right
now — into a single Common Operational Picture (COP) so humans (and
mostly commanders) can spend their time deciding what to do about it.

Next 5 years will see breakthrough in this direction!

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 *Second trend-integration of all elements-AI enhanced situational
awareness

Antecedent-Maven project

Project Maven is a Pentagon project using machine learning to distinguish

people and objects in drone videos, apparently giving the government real-time
battlefield command and control, and the ability to track, tag and spy on targets
without human involvement. The project was awarded to Palantir Technologies
after being abandoned by Google.

The initial iteration of Project Maven — Sprint-1, fielded in December 2017 —

delivered “50 to 60 percent” of the ultimate goal. After multiple monthly
upgrades, the next major revision, Sprint-2, is being fielded “right now,” he
said, with a Sprint-3 planned for 2020.
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 *Third trend-overcoming the weak spots of the AI-deep learning
The problem with deep learning is that it is a black box, which means it is very

difficult to investigate the reasoning behind the decisions it makes and discover its
limitations and capabilities.

DARPA is focusing on explainable AI projects in the XAI initiative to help the end
users, the people who will be using applications powered by deep learning and
other artificial intelligence techniques.

Another project of DARPA is the (Competency-Aware Machine Learning) CAML

initiative aiming to develop machine learning systems that continuously assess
their own performance in time-critical, dynamic situations and communicate that
information to human team-members in an easily understood format.

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 Thank you!Questions?

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