AS-Level Maths:

Statistics 1
for Edexcel

S1.3 Probability

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 Probability

Probability basics and notation

Contents

Estimating probability
Addition properties
Independent events
Conditional probability.

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Probability

How likely am I to live to 100?

Which team is most likely to win the FA cup?
Are interest rates likely to go up?
Am I likely to win the lottery?
Uncertainty is a feature of everyday life. Probability is an
area of maths that addresses how likely things are to
happen.
A good understanding of probability is important in many
areas of work. It is used by scientists, governments,
businesses, insurance companies, betting companies and
many others, to help them anticipate future events.

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Introduction to probability

A statistics experiment will have a number of different

outcomes. The set of all possible outcomes is called the
sample space of the experiment.
For example:
if a normal dice is thrown the sample
space would be {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
In a general knowledge quiz with 70 questions,
the sample space for the number of questions a
person answers correctly is {0, 1, 2, …, 70}.
An event is a collection of some of the outcomes from an
experiment. For example, getting an even number on the dice
or scoring more than 40 on the quiz.

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Notation

Let A be an event arising from a statistical experiment.

The probability that A occurs is denoted P(A)
(where 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1).

If A is certain to happen, then P(A) = 1.

If A is impossible, then P(A) = 0.

The probability that A does not occur is denoted P(A′).

P(A′) = 1 – P(A)

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Introduction to probability

When two experiments are combined, the set of possible

outcomes can be shown in a sample space diagram.
Example: A dice is thrown twice and the scores obtained are
added together. Find the probability that the total score is 6.

There are 36 equally 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Second throw
likely outcomes. 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
5 of the outcomes 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
result in a total of 6. 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
P(total = 6) = 5 1 2 3 4 5 6
36 First throw

This notation means “probability that the total = 6”.

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 Estimating probability

Probability basics and notation

Contents

Estimating probability
Addition properties
Independent events
Conditional probability.

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Estimating probability

Some probabilities are less simple. It is not always possible to

calculate how likely each outcome is.
However, the probability of an event happening can be
estimated experimentally, by repeating an experiment over
and over again. The probability is estimated using:

number of times event occurs

number of times experiment is repeated

This is referred to as the relative frequency.

You can increase the accuracy of the relative

frequency as an estimate of probability, by increasing
the number of times you repeat the experiment.
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Estimating probability

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Venn diagrams

Venn diagrams can be used to represent probabilities.

The outcomes that The outcomes that satisfy
satisfy event A can be event B can be represented
represented by a circle. by another circle.
A B

The circles can be overlapped to represent

outcomes that satisfy both events.
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 Addition properties

Probability basics and notation

Contents

Estimating probability
Addition properties
Independent events
Conditional probability.

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Addition properties

Two events A and B are called mutually exclusive if they

cannot occur at the same time.
For example, if a card is picked at random from a
standard pack of 52 cards, the events “the card is a club”
and “the card is a diamond” are mutually exclusive.
However the events “the card is a club” and “the
card is a queen” are not mutually exclusive.

If A and B are mutually exclusive, A B

In Venn diagrams
then: representing mutually
exclusive events, the circles
P(A  B ) = P(A) + P(B )
do not overlap.
This symbol means
‘union’ or ‘OR’
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Addition properties

This addition rule for finding P(A  B) is not true when

A and B are not mutually exclusive.

The more general rule for finding P(A  B) is:

P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A  B)

This symbol means

‘intersect’ or ‘AND’

Venn diagrams can

help you to visualize
probability calculations.

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Addition properties

Example: A card is picked at random from a pack of cards.

Find the probability that it is either a club or a queen or both.
Card is a club = event C
Card is a queen = event Q This represents the
1 other 3 queens.
P(C ) =
4
This area
4 1 represents the
P(Q ) = = 12 clubs that
52 13 are not queens.
1 This represents the
P(C Q ) =
52 queen of clubs.

1 1 1 4
So, P(C Q ) = + – =
4 13 52 13
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Addition properties

Example 2: If P(A′  B′) = 0.1, P(A) = 0.45 and P(B) = 0.75,

find P(A  B).

P(A′  B′) is the unshaded area in A B

the Venn Diagram.

We can deduce that:

0.1
P(A  B) = 1 – 0.1 = 0.9
Using the formula, P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A  B),
we get:
0.9 = 0.45 + 0.75 – P(A  B)
0.9 = 1.2 – P(A  B)
So, P(A  B) = 0.3
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Addition properties

Examination style question: There are two events, C and D.

P(C) = 2P(D) = 3P(C  D). Given that P(C  D) = 0.52, find:
a) P(C  D)
b) P(C  D′).

C D

a) Let P(C  D) = x x
P(C  D) = P(C) + P(D) – P(C  D)
So, 0.52 = 3x + 1.5x – x
Therefore x = P(C  D) = 0.52 ÷ 3.5
= 0.15 (3 s.f)

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Addition properties

Question (continued): C D
b) P(C  D′) corresponds to the
unshaded area in this Venn diagram.
We see that:
P(C  D′) = P(C′  D′) + P(C)
= (1 – 0.52) + 3 × 0.15 …as P(C) = 3P(C  D)
= 0.48 + 0.45
= 0.93

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 Independent events

Probability basics and notation

Contents

Estimating probability
Addition properties
Independent events
Conditional probability.

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Independent events

Two events are said to be independent if the occurrence of

one has no effect on the probability of the second occurring.

For example, if a coin and a die are both thrown, then

the events “the coin shows a head” and “the die shows
an odd number” are independent events.

If A and B are independent, then:

P(A  B) = P(A) × P(B)

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Independent events

Example: A and B are independent

events. P(A) = 0.7 and P(B) = 0.4.
a) Find P(A  B) A B
b) Find P(A′  B).

a) As A and B are independent,

P(A  B) = P(A) × P(B)
= 0.7 × 0.4 = 0.28
b) P(A′  B) is the shaded region in the Venn diagram.
So, P(A′  B) = P(B) – P(A  B)
= 0.4 – 0.28 = 0.12

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Independent events

Tree diagrams are sometimes a useful way of finding

probabilities that involve a succession of events.

Example: A bag contains 6 green counters and 4 blue

counters. A counter is chosen at random from the bag
and then replaced. This is repeated two more times.
Find the probability that the 3 counters chosen are
a) all green
b) not all the same colour.
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Independent events

0.6 G
0.6
G
0.4 B
G
0.6 G
0.6 0.4
B
0.4 B
0.6 G
0.4 0.6 G
B 0.4 B
0.4 0.6 G
B
0.4 B

a) P(GGG) = 0.6 × 0.6 × 0.6

= 0.216

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Independent events

0.6 G
0.6
G
0.4 B
G
0.6 G
0.6 0.4
B
0.4 B
0.6 G
0.4 0.6 G
B 0.4 B
0.4 0.6 G
B
0.4 B
b) To find the probability that there will be at least one
of each colour, we can find 1 – P(GGG) – P(BBB)
P(BBB) = 0.4 × 0.4 × 0.4 = 0.064.
Therefore, the answer is 1 – 0.216 – 0.064 = 0.72
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 Conditional probability

Probability basics and notation

Contents

Estimating probability
Addition properties
Independent events
Conditional probability.

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Conditional probability

However, the probability of event B happening might

depend on whether A has happened or not.
For example, if blue and green counters are pulled from a
bag twice and not replaced, then the probability of pulling
out a green counter on the second try, will depend on
what colour was pulled out on the first try.

The probability that event A will happen, given that

event B has happened, is written
P(A | B)

This is a conditional probability.

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Conditional probability

To find the probability of events A and B both happening we

use:
P(A  B) = P(A) × P(B | A)
P(B | A) B P(A  B) = P(A) × P(B | A)

A
P(A) P(B′ | A) B′ P(A  B′) = P(A) × P(B′ | A)

P(B | A′ ) B P(A′  B) = P(A′) × P(B | A′)

P(A′)
A′
P(B′ | A′ ) B′ P(A′  B′) = P(A′) × P(B′ | A′)

This formula can be re-arranged to give:

P(A  B )
P(B | A) 
P(A)
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Conditional probability

Example: A bag contains 8 dark chocolates and 4 milk

chocolates. One chocolate is taken out and eaten. A second
chocolate is then taken. Find the probability of
a) two milk chocolates being taken
b) both chocolates being of different types.
7 1 3 1
11 D a) P(M  M) =  
2 3 11 11
D
3 4 2 4 8
11 M b) P(D  M) =  
3 11 33
1 8 8
8 P(M  D) =  
1 11 D 3 11 33
3 M 8 8 16
3  
11
M 33 33 33
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Conditional probability

Examination style question: A man has 2 shirts

(one white and one blue) and 2 ties (red and silver).
If he wears the white shirt, he chooses the red tie
with probability 0.4.
If he wears the blue shirt, he chooses the red tie with
probability 0.75.
The probability that he wears the white shirt is 0.7.
a) Find the probability that he wears the red tie.
b) Given that he is wearing a red tie, find the
probability that he picked the blue shirt.

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Conditional probability

Shirt Tie
0.4
R
W
0.7 0.6 S

0.3 0.75 R
B
0.25 S

a) P(red tie) = P(W  R) + P(B  R)

= (0.7 × 0.4) + (0.3 × 0.75)
= 0.28 + 0.225 = 0.505.

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Conditional probability

b) Recall the formula for conditional probability:

P(A  B )
P(B | A) 
P(A)

P(B  R ) 0.225
So, P(B | R )  
P(R ) 0.505
= 0.446

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Conditional probability

The example below demonstrates an important application of

probability in the field of medicine.

Example: A disease affects 1 in 500 people.

A diagnostic test for the disease records a positive
result 99% of the time when the disease is present
(this is called the sensitivity of the test).
The test records a negative result 95% of the time
when the disease in not present.
The test results are always either positive or negative.
Find the probability that a person has the disease,
given that the test result is positive.

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Conditional probability

Disease Test
0.99 +ve P(D  +ve) = 0.002 × 0.99
D = 0.00198
0.002 –ve
0.01

0.998
0.05 +ve P(D′  +ve) = 0.998 × 0.05
D′ = 0.0499
0.95 –ve

Therefore, P(+ve) = 0.05188

P(D  +ve) 0.00198
So, P(D |+ve)    0.0382
P(+ve) 0.05188

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