Chapter 3

Probability

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 Chapter Outline
• Note 9 Basic Concepts of Probability
• Note 10 Conditional Probability and the
Multiplication Rule
• Note 11 The Addition Rule

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 Note 10

Conditional Probability and the

Multiplication Rule

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 Objectives
• How to find the probability of an event given that
another event has occurred
• How to distinguish between independent and
dependent events
• How to use the Multiplication Rule to find the
probability of two events occurring in sequence and
to find conditional probabilities

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 Conditional Probability
Conditional Probability
• The probability of an event occurring, given that
another event has already occurred
• Denoted P(B | A) (read “probability of B, given A”)

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 Example: Finding Conditional
Probabilities
1. Two cards are selected in sequence from a standard
deck. Find the probability that the second card is a
queen, given that the first card is a king. (Assume
that the king is not replaced.)

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 Example: Finding Conditional
Probabilities
Solution:
Because the first card is a king and is not replaced, the
remaining deck has 51 cards, 4 of which are queens.
4
P( B | A)  P(2 card is a Queen |1 card is a King ) 
nd st
 0.078
51

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 Example: Finding Conditional
Probabilities
2. The table shows the results of a survey in which
2276 social media users were asked whether they
have ever been offended by something they saw on
social media. Find the probability that a user is male,
given that the user was offended by something on
social media. (Adapted from The Harris Poll)
Have you ever been offended
by something on social media?
Yes No Total
Female 619 549 1168
Male 532 576 1108
Total 1151 1125 2276
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 Solution: Finding Conditional
Probabilities
There are 1151 users who said they were offended by
something on social media. So, the sample space
consists of these 1151 users. Of these, 532 are males.
So, Have you ever been offended
by something on social media?
Yes No Total
Female 619 549 1168
Male 532 576 1108
Total 1151 1125 2276

 
P(BA) = 0.462.

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 Independent and Dependent
Events
Independent events
• The occurrence of one of the events does not affect
the probability of the occurrence of the other event
• P(B | A) = P(B) or P(A | B) = P(A)
• Events that are not independent are dependent
• If P(B) ≠ P(B|A), then A and B are dependent events,
P(A)≠P(A|B)

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 Example: Classifying Events
as Independent or Dependent
Decide whether the events are independent or dependent.
1. Selecting a king (A) from a standard deck of 52
playing cards, not replacing it, and then selecting a
queen (B) from the deck.

Solution:
4
P( B | A)  P(2 card is a Queen |1 card is a King ) 
nd st

51
4
P( B)  P(Queen) 
52
Dependent (the occurrence of A changes the probability
of the occurrence of B)
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 Example: Classifying Events
as Independent or Dependent
Decide whether the events are independent or dependent.
2. Tossing a coin and getting a head (A), and then
rolling a six-sided die and obtaining a 6 (B).
Solution:
1
P( B | A)  P( rolling a 6 | head on coin) 
6
1
P( B)  P(rolling a 6) 
6

Independent (the occurrence of A does not change the

probability of the occurrence of B)
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 Example: Classifying Events
as Independent or Dependent
Decide whether the events are independent or dependent.
3. Driving over 85 miles per hour (A), and then getting
in a car accident (B).
Solution:

Dependent (Driving over 85 miles per hour increases the

chances of getting in an accident)

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 EXAMPLE
• Classify whether the events are independent or dependent.
 Tossing a coin and getting a head (A), and then rolling a
die and obtaining a 6 (B) independent
 Selecting a king from a standard deck (A), not replacing it,
and then selecting a queen from the deck (B) dependent
 Driving over 135 kilometer per hour (A), and then getting
in a car accident (B) dependent
 Smoking a pack of cigarettes per day (A) and developing
emphysema, a chronic lung disease (B) dependent
 Exercising frequently (A) and having a 4.0 grade point
average (B)
independent

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 EXAMPLE
• A random sample of 400 college students was asked if college
athletes should be paid. The following table gives a two-way
classification of the responses. A student is selected at random.
Are the events that the student is athlete and the response is
should be paid, independent?

P(SA) = 100/400= 0.25  P(SA) ≠ P(SA|PAID)

P(SA|PAID) = 90/300=0.30 Both events are dependent

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 The Multiplication Rule
Multiplication rule for the probability of A and B
• The probability that two events A and B will occur in
sequence is
 P(A and B) = P(A) ∙ P(B | A)
• For independent events the rule can be simplified to
 P(A and B) = P(A) ∙ P(B)
 Can be extended for any number of independent
events

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 The Multiplication Rule
• We use this rule to find the probability of two events occurs in
sequence
• The probability that two events A and B will occur in sequence is

 
𝑃 ( 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 )= 𝑃 ( 𝐴 ) ∙ 𝑃 ( 𝐵∨ 𝐴 )
• If events A and B are independent, then the rule can be simplified
to
 
𝑃 ( 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 )= 𝑃 ( 𝐴 ) ∙ 𝑃 ( 𝐵 )
• This simplified rule can be extended to any number of
independent events.

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 Example: Using the Multiplication
Rule to Find Probabilities
1. Two cards are selected, without replacing the first
card, from a standard deck of 52 playing cards. Find
the probability of selecting a king and then selecting
a queen.
Solution:
Because the first card is not replaced, the events are
dependent.
P( K and Q )  P ( K )  P (Q | K )
4 4 16
    0.006
52 51 2652

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 Example: Using the Multiplication
Rule to Find Probabilities
2. A coin is tossed and a die is rolled. Find the
probability of tossing a head and then rolling a 6.

Solution:
The events are independent.
P( H and 6)  P ( H )  P (6)
1 1
 
2 6
1
  0.083
12

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 Exercise
1. The probability that a salmon swims successfully through a dam is 0.85.
Find the probability that two salmon swim successfully through the
dam. (0.723)
2. Two cards are selected from a standard deck without replacement. Find
the probability that they are both hearts. (0.059)
3. The probability that a particular knee surgery is successful is 0.85.
a) Find the probability that three knee surgeries are successful (0.614).
b) Find the probability that none of the three knee surgeries are
successful. (0.003)
c) Find the probability that at least one of the three knee surgeries are
successful. (0.997)

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