Results and Discussion

TC Paul
TC PAUL Data Assimilation 48 Hrs prior to enhancement Aug-03-1999
RMSE BIAS MAE MSE
Station
WRFnoDA WRFDA WRFnoDA WRFDA WRFnoDA WRFDA WRFnoDA WRFDA
VIGAN 185.37 167.39 182.88 164.03 34361.98 28020.33 182.88 164.03
IBA 179.13 171.37 176.67 170.67 32087.95 29367.14 176.67 170.67
DAGUPAN CITY 117.89 122.63 106.83 104.69 13897.78 15038.57 106.83 104.69
BAGUIO CITY 104.38 92.85 103.55 90.06 10895.50 8621.95 103.55 90.06
PORT AREA 43.99 49.51 -21.01 -31.69 1935.47 2451.53 29.25 31.69
SUBIC BAY 92.54 77.66 -59.32 -40.04 8564.51 6030.91 65.55 66.32
SANGLEY POINT 35.67 38.59 -8.64 -19.32 1272.49 1488.85 28.52 29.99
SCIENCE GARDEN 134.07 118.23 115.84 101.38 17975.06 13978.72 115.84 101.38
CALAPAN 19.37 19.34 -16.16 -16.14 375.07 374.22 16.16 16.14
SAN JOSE 103.55 105.00 101.88 103.16 10722.06 11025.00 101.88 103.16
Average 101.60 96.26 68.25 62.68 13,208.79 11,639.72 92.71 87.81
RnoDA = 0.3254; PnoDA = 0.0793
RDA = 0.3422; PDA = 0.0641
TC PAUL Data Assimilation 48 Hrs prior to enhancement Aug-03-1999
RMSE RMSE
200 200
180 180
160 160
140 140
120 120
100 100
80 80
60 60
40 40
20 20
0 0
A Y TY EA Y NT EN N SE A Y Y EA Y T N N SE
AN IB CI
T
CI BA I PA AN IB CI
T
CI
T BA IN DE PA
G AR PO RD JO G AR O JO
VI N O BI
C LA VI N O BI
C P AR L A
PA UI R T
EY G A
CA SA
N
PA UI RT EY G CA SA
N
U G PO SU L E U G PO SU L E
G BA NG NC G BA NG NC
DA S A CIE DA S A CIE
S S

WRFnoDA WRFDA WRFnoDA WRFDA

MAE
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
A Y Y EA Y T E
AN IB CI
T
CI
T BA IN EN AN S
VI
G AR C PO RD AP JO
AN UI
O T BI Y A
CA
L N
UP G R
SU LE G SA
G BA PO G CE
DA SA
N I EN
SC

WRFnoDA WRFDA RnoDA = 0.3254; PnoDA = 0.0793

RDA = 0.3422; PDA = 0.0641
TC PAUL 03-Aug-1999, DA @ 48 Hrs prior to enhancement
TC PAUL Data Assimilation 24 Hrs prior to enhancement Aug-03-1999
RMSE BIAS MAE MSE
Station
WRFnoDA WRFDA WRFnoDA WRFDA WRFnoDA WRFDA WRFnoDA WRFDA
VIGAN 185.37 196.61 182.88 190.43 34361.98 38655.69 182.88 190.43
IBA 179.13 238.99 176.67 231.33 32087.95 57116.41 176.67 231.33
DAGUPAN CITY 117.89 125.85 106.83 90.64 13897.78 15837.08 106.83 111.12
BAGUIO CITY 104.38 92.04 103.55 78.51 10895.50 8470.51 103.55 78.51
PORT AREA 43.99 57.62 -21.01 -32.09 1935.47 3320.45 29.25 39.47
SUBIC BAY 92.54 99.35 -59.32 -41.39 8564.51 9871.19 65.55 71.27
SANGLEY POINT 35.67 48.42 -8.64 -19.73 1272.49 2344.93 28.52 39.64
SCIENCE GARDEN 134.07 126.65 115.84 115.16 17975.06 16039.86 115.84 115.16
CALAPAN 19.37 19.37 -16.16 -16.16 375.07 375.06 16.16 16.16
SAN JOSE 103.55 104.17 101.88 102.17 10722.06 10851.85 101.88 102.17
Average 101.60 110.91 68.25 69.89 13,208.79 16,288.30 92.71 99.53
RnoDA = 0.3254; PnoDA = 0.0793
RDA = 0.1861; PDA = 0.3249
TC PAUL 03-Aug-1999, DA @ 24 Hrs prior to enhancement
TC PAUL Data Assimilation during enhancement
RMSE BIAS MAE MSE
Station
WRFnoDA WRFDA WRFnoDA WRFDA WRFnoDA WRFDA WRFnoDA WRFDA
VIGAN 185.37 182.65 182.88 181.01 34361.98 33362.44 182.88 181.01
IBA 179.13 168.07 176.67 162.52 32087.95 28246.25 176.67 162.52
DAGUPAN CITY 117.89 126.85 106.83 70.13 13897.78 16091.72 106.83 120.64
BAGUIO CITY 104.38 105.07 103.55 61.19 10895.50 11040.40 103.55 93.09
PORT AREA 43.99 58.06 -21.01 -28.04 1935.47 3370.74 29.25 40.05
SUBIC BAY 92.54 91.22 -59.32 -42.98 8564.51 8320.82 65.55 67.42
SANGLEY POINT 35.67 49.71 -8.64 -15.67 1272.49 2471.11 28.52 40.22
SCIENCE GARDEN 134.07 125.51 115.84 91.08 17975.06 15753.19 115.84 110.21
CALAPAN 19.37 19.39 -16.16 -16.16 375.07 375.86 16.16 16.16
SAN JOSE 103.55 97.12 101.88 87.89 10722.06 9433.20 101.88 87.89
Average 101.60 102.37 68.25 55.10 13,208.79 12,846.57 92.71 91.92
RnoDA = 0.3254; PnoDA = 0.0793
RDA = 0.0777; PDA = 0.6833
TC PAUL 03-Aug-1999, DA during enhancement
TC PAUL Data Assimilation Discussion
• Different response of stations is seen in the statistic metrics. Some station improve when DA was implemented while
others did not.
• Averaging the stations shows improvement over the non DA model runs.
• Data assimilation two days before the enhancement shows much better than those a day before and during the
assimilation. This might be caused by the physics involved in the model. A sensitivity analysis can be done to see whether
the data assimilation improves before and during the enhancement.
• Looking closely towards statistic metrics of data assimilation during enhancement, it shows an improvement over nonDA
model except in RMSE, but its still not better than the two days DA before the enhancement.
• Spatially, data assimilation shows improvement over the non data assimilated model. Higher rain accumulation grids is
lesser than without the data assimilation. This decrease in rain accumulation can be seen to other grids. This might imply
that data assimilation spreads the rain over the region.
• Other observations: it shows that the model shows negative impact to the stations close to the shore except San Jose.
TC Usagi
TC USAGI Data Assimilation 72 Hrs prior to enhancement Jul-27-2007
RMSE BIAS MAE MSE
Station
WRFnoDA WRFDA WRFnoDA WRFDA WRFnoDA WRFDA WRFnoDA WRFDA
VIGAN 23.95 19.75 23.95 19.75 573.66 390.22 23.95 19.75
IBA 42.35 26.53 42.35 26.53 1793.24 703.82 42.35 26.53
DAGUPAN CITY 42.00 51.19 -42.00 -51.19 1764.37 2620.64 42.00 51.19
BAGUIO CITY 25.78 13.35 25.78 13.35 664.74 178.23 25.78 13.35
PORT AREA 22.01 21.36 -22.01 -21.36 484.63 456.46 22.01 21.36
SUBIC BAY 35.35 35.40 -35.35 -35.40 1249.45 1253.15 35.35 35.40
SANGLEY POINT 29.01 28.36 -29.01 -28.36 841.83 804.57 29.01 28.36
SCIENCE GARDEN 8.65 87.30 8.65 87.30 74.79 7620.44 8.65 87.30
CALAPAN 2.62 0.06 2.62 0.06 6.87 0.00 2.62 0.06
SAN JOSE 8.61 15.04 -8.61 -15.04 74.21 226.32 8.61 15.04
Average 24.03 29.83 - 3.36 - 0.44 752.78 1,425.39 24.03 29.83
RnoDA = -0.6809; PnoDA = 0.0302
RDA = -0.5429; PDA = 0.1049
TC USAGI 27-Jul-2007, DA @ 72 Hrs prior to enhancement
TC USAGI Data Assimilation 48 Hrs prior to enhancement Jul-27-2007
RMSE BIAS MAE MSE
Station
WRFnoDA WRFDA WRFnoDA WRFDA WRFnoDA WRFDA WRFnoDA WRFDA
VIGAN 23.95 15.00 23.95 15.00 573.66 224.91 23.95 15.00
IBA 42.35 15.37 42.35 15.37 1793.24 236.14 42.35 15.37
DAGUPAN CITY 42.00 41.08 -42.00 -41.08 1764.37 1687.46 42.00 41.08
BAGUIO CITY 25.78 11.86 25.78 11.86 664.74 140.57 25.78 11.86
PORT AREA 22.01 26.00 -22.01 -26.00 484.63 675.88 22.01 26.00
SUBIC BAY 35.35 35.40 -35.35 -35.40 1249.45 1253.14 35.35 35.40
SANGLEY POINT 29.01 33.00 -29.01 -33.00 841.83 1088.85 29.01 33.00
SCIENCE GARDEN 8.65 38.53 8.65 38.53 74.79 1484.78 8.65 38.53
CALAPAN 2.62 1.16 2.62 -1.16 6.87 1.34 2.62 1.16
SAN JOSE 8.61 10.75 -8.61 -10.75 74.21 115.62 8.61 10.75
Average 24.03 22.82 - 3.36 - 6.66 752.78 690.87 24.03 22.82
RnoDA = -0.6809; PnoDA = 0.0302
RDA = -0.5237; PDA = 0.1202
TC USAGI 27-Jul-2007, DA @ 48 Hrs prior to enhancement
TC USAGI Data Assimilation 24 Hrs prior to enhancement Jul-27-2007
RMSE BIAS MAE MSE
Station
WRFnoDA WRFDA WRFnoDA WRFDA WRFnoDA WRFDA WRFnoDA WRFDA
VIGAN 23.95 17.02 23.95 17.02 573.66 289.54 23.95 17.02
IBA 42.35 31.87 42.35 31.87 1793.24 1015.61 42.35 31.87
DAGUPAN CITY 42.00 48.22 -42.00 -48.22 1764.37 2325.10 42.00 48.22
BAGUIO CITY 25.78 25.79 25.78 25.79 664.74 665.11 25.78 25.79
PORT AREA 22.01 22.62 -22.01 -22.62 484.63 511.84 22.01 22.62
SUBIC BAY 35.35 35.40 -35.35 -35.40 1249.45 1253.16 35.35 35.40
SANGLEY POINT 29.01 29.62 -29.01 -29.62 841.83 877.58 29.01 29.62
SCIENCE GARDEN 8.65 33.19 8.65 33.19 74.79 1101.27 8.65 33.19
CALAPAN 2.62 7.40 2.62 7.40 6.87 54.76 2.62 7.40
SAN JOSE 8.61 14.26 -8.61 -14.26 74.21 203.30 8.61 14.26
AVERAGE 24.03 26.54 - 3.36 - 3.49 752.78 829.73 24.03 26.54
RnoDA = -0.6809; PnoDA = 0.0302
RDA = -0.6728; PDA = 0.0330
TC USAGI 27-Jul-2007, DA @ 24 Hrs prior to enhancement
TC Usagi Data Assimilation Discussion
• During DA three days before the enhancement, statistical metrics seems to show improvement over the station with an
exception to Science Garden which show a significant difference to the observe than the nonDA model.
• Averaging the stations tells a different story where only BIAS tells that the model was improved when DA was
implemented. This might cause of the large difference of Science Garden that greatly impacted the mean of the stations
concerned.
• Correlating those stations of the observed to the nonDA and DA models show opposite results in which there are not
correlated and not significant.
• Those insignificant correlation can be seen in the map which shows higher rain accumulation to some of the grids.
• During DA two days before enhancement, improvements on statistical metrics can be seen to the stations with some
exceptions of some stations near the shore and specially Science Garden which is still has the largest difference over th
observed and nonDA model.
• On the other hand, by averaging the stations it improves the statistical metric except to the BIAS which might contributed
by the negative BIAS on the Calapan Station.
• Correlation two days of DA was not as good as DA three days before enhancement day.
• Spatially the DA two days before enhancement doesn’t show similarities to the observe the same with three days before
enhancement.
• A day before enhancement statistical metrics indicates less improvement of DA on most of the stations even when
averaged.
• Interestingly, correlation was improved during this day of DA.
TC Wutip
TC WUTIP Data Assimilation 72 Hrs prior to enhancement Aug-06-2007
RMSE BIAS MAE MSE
Station
WRFnoDA WRFDA WRFnoDA WRFDA WRFnoDA WRFDA WRFnoDA WRFDA
VIGAN 187.98 99.80 44.38 -37.55 149.35 83.78 35336.75 9960.80
IBA 133.15 119.02 57.02 107.86 98.50 107.86 17729.45 14165.51
DAGUPAN CITY 68.08 61.80 -28.68 -26.26 52.65 51.77 4634.37 3819.00
BAGUIO CITY 74.52 44.20 -52.09 -30.07 61.21 32.40 5553.46 1953.35
PORT AREA 71.38 59.97 -61.84 -50.01 61.84 50.01 5094.85 3595.95
SUBIC BAY 47.49 57.59 11.78 17.49 40.49 47.00 2255.37 3317.12
SANGLEY POINT 95.22 88.14 -77.89 -66.06 78.12 66.77 9066.04 7767.84
SCIENCE GARDEN 101.27 69.15 48.94 25.25 80.73 42.66 10256.11 4781.22
CALAPAN 24.72 44.97 13.05 19.14 13.55 25.45 610.97 2022.18
SAN JOSE 68.61 93.45 67.20 91.08 67.20 91.08 4707.07 8732.36
AVERAGE 87.24 73.81 2.19 5.09 70.36 59.88 9,524.44 6,011.53
RnoDA = 0.4974; PnoDA = 0.0011
RDA = 0.5957; PDA = 0.0001
TC WUTIP 06-Aug-2007, DA @ 72 Hrs prior to enhancement
TC WUTIP Data Assimilation 48 Hrs prior to enhancement Aug-06-2007
RMSE BIAS MAE MSE
Station
WRFnoDA WRFDA WRFnoDA WRFDA WRFnoDA WRFDA WRFnoDA WRFDA
VIGAN 187.98 95.57 44.38 -62.75 149.35 70.63 35336.75 9133.36
IBA 133.15 120.78 57.02 10.32 98.50 107.11 17729.45 14587.30
DAGUPAN CITY 68.08 63.60 -28.68 -10.52 52.65 59.35 4634.37 4044.73
BAGUIO CITY 74.52 59.63 -52.09 -12.71 61.21 42.83 5553.46 3556.18
PORT AREA 71.38 61.64 -61.84 -50.39 61.84 52.84 5094.85 3799.28
SUBIC BAY 47.49 112.09 11.78 -99.11 40.49 99.11 2255.37 12563.22
SANGLEY POINT 95.22 89.48 -77.89 -66.44 78.12 69.69 9066.04 8005.94
SCIENCE GARDEN 101.27 103.66 48.94 24.97 80.73 73.70 10256.11 10745.84
CALAPAN 24.72 90.24 13.05 42.32 13.55 48.12 610.97 8142.87
SAN JOSE 68.61 89.77 67.20 86.17 67.20 86.17 4707.07 8059.12
AVERAGE 87.24 88.65 2.19 - 13.81 70.36 70.96 9,524.44 8,263.78
RnoDA = 0.4974; PnoDA = 0.0011
RDA = 0.1935; PDA = 0.2317
TC WUTIP 06-Aug-2007, DA @ 48 Hrs prior to enhancement
TC WUTIP Data Assimilation 24 Hrs prior to enhancement Aug-06-2007
RMSE BIAS MAE MSE
Station
WRFnoDA WRFDA WRFnoDA WRFDA WRFnoDA WRFDA WRFnoDA WRFDA
VIGAN 187.98 93.07 44.38 -54.77 149.35 67.67 35336.75 8662.37
IBA 133.15 136.99 57.02 24.69 98.50 113.48 17729.45 18766.06
DAGUPAN CITY 68.08 69.40 -28.68 -22.03 52.65 60.18 4634.37 4816.36
BAGUIO CITY 74.52 60.08 -52.09 -26.92 61.21 37.10 5553.46 3609.15
PORT AREA 71.38 56.19 -61.84 -30.29 61.84 47.26 5094.85 3157.74
SUBIC BAY 47.49 116.20 11.78 -91.04 40.49 91.04 2255.37 13503.43
SANGLEY POINT 95.22 64.03 -77.89 -46.34 78.12 54.85 9066.04 4100.10
SCIENCE GARDEN 101.27 74.60 48.94 32.18 80.73 56.65 10256.11 5564.61
CALAPAN 24.72 33.50 13.05 22.08 13.55 22.58 610.97 1122.39
SAN JOSE 68.61 94.71 67.20 89.27 67.20 89.27 4707.07 8970.86
AVERAGE 87.24 79.88 2.19 - 10.32 70.36 64.01 9,524.44 7,227.31
RnoDA = 0.4974; PnoDA = 0.0011
RDA = 0.2759; PDA = 0.0849
TC WUTIP 06-Aug-2007, DA @ 24 Hrs prior to enhancement
TC Wutip Data Assimilation Discussion
• Three days before enhancement, statistical metrics shows good improvement of DA with exception to the stations of
Subic, Calapan and San Jose. Similarly, averaging the stations indicates improvement of DA over nonDA excluding BIAS in
which the station of Iba has the most difference.
• Correlation during this day of DA shows a great significance with a P-value of 0.0001. A lesser rain accumulation shown in
the map might indicate the cause of this significance.
• DA two days before enhancement tells a different story. Station wise, DA improves most of the stations concerned but
shows no improvement when averaged across the statistical metrics used with an exception to MSE. Results shows that
the large factor for no improvement of DA is attributed to the station of Subic and Calapan which contributes greater
values on the averaged metrics.
• Correlation significance value during this time of DA is greatly reduce compared to the previous one. The map shows an
increased rain accumulation over some of the grids.
• Lastly, DA on one day before enhancement conveys an improvement over the station with again, an exception to Subic
station. Similarly the averaged statistical metrics of the stations tells the same except on the BIAS which gives a negative
bias, due to large negative bias of Subic station.
• Significance value of the correlation results an improvement but not similar to the DA three days before enhancement.
TC Trami
TC TRAMI Data Assimilation 72 Hrs prior to enhancement Aug-17-2013
RMSE BIAS MAE MSE
Station
WRFnoDA WRFDA WRFnoDA WRFDA WRFnoDA WRFDA WRFnoDA WRFDA
VIGAN 109.29 107.62 - 84.11 - 37.12 90.32 96.71 11,943.82 11,581.22
IBA 110.38 117.86 - 55.34 - 61.85 77.01 87.39 12,182.91 13,891.21
DAGUPAN CITY 87.57 93.56 - 79.03 - 84.04 79.03 84.04 7,667.70 8,753.31
BAGUIO CITY 89.93 97.45 - 86.16 - 68.11 86.16 89.83 8,087.78 9,496.21
PORT AREA 177.94 176.91 - 151.52 -151.54 151.52 151.54 31,662.96 31,297.85
SUBIC BAY 81.19 79.11 - 71.55 - 70.22 71.55 70.22 6,591.15 6,258.49
SANGLEY POINT 260.54 259.01 - 211.12 -211.14 211.12 211.14 67,882.46 67,087.77
SCIENCE GARDEN 135.33 128.22 - 116.37 -107.80 116.37 107.80 18,314.27 16,441.44
CALAPAN 33.11 33.97 - 23.30 - 24.15 23.43 24.15 1,096.18 1,154.12
SAN JOSE 18.43 18.99 - 8.86 - 11.38 14.59 14.34 339.74 360.56
AVERAGE 110.37 111.27 - 88.74 - 82.74 92.11 93.72 16,576.90 16,632.22
RnoDA = 0.2090; PnoDA = 0.1453
RDA = 0.1062; PDA = 0.4630
TC TRAMI 17-Aug-2013, DA @ 72 Hrs prior to enhancement
TC TRAMI Data Assimilation 48 Hrs prior to enhancement Aug-17-2013
RMSE BIAS MAE MSE
Station
WRFnoDA WRFDA WRFnoDA WRFDA WRFnoDA WRFDA WRFnoDA WRFDA
VIGAN 109.29 136.64 - 84.11 - 22.09 90.32 106.57 11,943.82 18,671.74
IBA 110.38 113.33 - 55.34 - 49.89 77.01 79.08 12,182.91 12,844.68
DAGUPAN CITY 87.57 81.78 - 79.03 - 63.30 79.03 71.78 7,667.70 6,687.15
BAGUIO CITY 89.93 96.29 - 86.16 - 47.92 86.16 90.24 8,087.78 9,271.78
PORT AREA 177.94 155.18 - 151.52 - 130.09 151.52 130.09 31,662.96 24,081.63
SUBIC BAY 81.19 81.72 - 71.55 - 67.99 71.55 67.99 6,591.15 6,677.81
SANGLEY POINT 260.54 237.67 - 211.12 - 189.69 211.12 189.69 67,882.46 56,486.47
SCIENCE GARDEN 135.33 131.67 - 116.37 - 111.10 116.37 111.10 18,314.27 17,337.59
CALAPAN 33.11 33.98 - 23.30 - 24.16 23.43 24.16 1,096.18 1,154.77
SAN JOSE 18.43 14.64 - 8.86 - 0.76 14.59 13.06 339.74 214.32
AVERAGE 110.37 108.29 - 88.74 - 70.70 92.11 88.38 16,576.90 15,342.79
RnoDA = 0.2090; PnoDA = 0.1453
RDA = 0.1128; PDA = 0.4353
TC TRAMI 17-Aug-2013, DA @ 48 Hrs prior to enhancement
TC TRAMI Data Assimilation 24 Hrs prior to enhancement Aug-17-2013
RMSE BIAS MAE MSE
Station
WRFnoDA WRFDA WRFnoDA WRFDA WRFnoDA WRFDA WRFnoDA WRFDA
VIGAN 109.29 149.55 - 84.11 9.34 90.32 136.47 11,943.82 22,365.17
IBA 110.38 109.96 - 55.34 - 53.14 77.01 77.94 12,182.91 12,090.22
DAGUPAN CITY 87.57 82.16 - 79.03 - 71.61 79.03 71.61 7,667.70 6,750.33
BAGUIO CITY 89.93 104.16 - 86.16 - 37.69 86.16 100.85 8,087.78 10,848.43
PORT AREA 177.94 163.61 - 151.52 - 137.82 151.52 137.82 31,662.96 26,766.81
SUBIC BAY 81.19 72.39 - 71.55 - 60.45 71.55 60.45 6,591.15 5,240.73
SANGLEY POINT 260.54 247.47 - 211.12 - 197.42 211.12 197.42 67,882.46 61,243.86
SCIENCE GARDEN 135.33 133.63 - 116.37 - 116.26 116.37 116.26 18,314.27 17,858.04
CALAPAN 33.11 33.98 - 23.30 - 24.16 23.43 24.16 1,096.18 1,154.93
SAN JOSE 18.43 14.37 - 8.86 1.23 14.59 11.57 339.74 206.51
AVERAGE 110.37 111.13 - 88.74 - 68.80 92.11 93.46 16,576.90 16,452.50
RnoDA = 0.2090; PnoDA = 0.1453
RDA = 0.0714; PDA = 0.6222
TC TRAMI 17-Aug-2013, DA @ 24 Hrs prior to enhancement
TC Trami Data Assimilation Discussion
• 72 hrs prior to enhancement or DA three days before enhancement of TC Trami results to a less improvement over the
stations concerned across the statistical metrics used. One can note the Baguio station for the BIAS but the average of all
stations seem fail to show improvements of the DA.
• In addition, significance values seems to be worsened by the DA three days before the enhancement.
• DA two days before enhancement implies an improvement of the model for the most of the stations across the statistical
metrics used. Average values of statistical metrics tells the same story.
• Correlation P-value were somehow improved by 0.0277 but still not significant.
• Lastly, DA one day before the enhancement appears to have a small improvement over the stations concerned across the
statistical metrics used. Averaging all the stations, only BIAS and MSE shows improvement when DA was used 24hrs
before the stations.
• No correlation and much lover P-value significance is observed on this time of DA. A much more inland precipitation can
be noticed in the map.
 Conclusion and
Recommendation
Conclusion
• All the TC examined respond differently when DA is applied days before the enhancement occurred.
• 3 out of 4 TCs exhibit good P-values with no DA than with DA namely TC Paul, Usagi and Wutip.
• Only TC Wutip and TC Paul shows improvement in significance values when DA was applied over the non DA, and only
occurs at their initial DA time, respectively 72hrs or 48hrs before enhancement.
• Most of the TCs got worse when the 2nd DA iteration/48hrs before enhancement was imposed with an exception to TC
Trami whos P-values improves a little. An opposite effect was observed when the 3 rd iteration/24hrs before enhancement
of DA was implemented to the model. This might due to the initial boundary conditions set by the model.
• Some stations specially those who are near the shore were the most affected by the DA. They might be affected by the
topography around their area in which a 5km model might not giving the accurate values for those stations.
• Generally, DA improves model vs DA models but not as much as non DA models. It might be due to the lack of DA data
used, only upper air sounding data was used in this study and no surface and radar data was included.
Recommendation
• DA poses a promising improvement for rain forecast especially during habagat enhancement episode.
• Different method of selecting TCs might be needed, inclusion of land falling TCs might represent the habagat episode.
• Initialization of the model should be looked at if it will show a different result when initialized the same time as DA time.
• Additional DA data should be included. Only sounding data was looked at this study. Surface and radar data can also be
assimilated.