CLASS PROJECT DISCUSSION

HOME WORK#2 DISCUSSION

INTRODUCTION TO TRAVEL DEMAND
MODELING: FUNDAMENTALS &
APPROACHES
NEED FOR TRAVEL DEMAND MODELS

We need data for Transportation Planning

You can conduct studies for all the

facilities throughout the region

We need to have future travel patterns

If we want to test impact of policy, we

have to simulate it

We can represent lot of

quantities/physical behavior with models
APPROACH OF TRAVEL DEMAND
MODELING

What is modeling?
Mathematical Representation of a System or
Concept
What is travel demand modeling ?
Mathematical representation on why, where,
when and how people travel
Why we need it?
To solve the these problems
How we do it?
Simplest travel demand modeling approach
is 4-step process
 4-STEP TRAVEL DEMAND MODELING

You wanted to make a shopping trip

You then decide where to go for shopping

Then you decide how to travel: walk, car, bus,

Light Rail

You decide which route you take based on

time & distance
 4-STEP TRAVEL DEMAND MODELING

You wanted to make a shopping trip

Trip Generation
You then decide where to go for shopping
Trip Distribution
Then you decide how to travel: walk, car, bus,
Light Rail
Model choice
You decide which route you take based on
time & distance
Highway Assignment
BASICS IN TRAVEL DEMAND MODELING

Assumptions
• People + jobs = trips
• traffic volumes = trips/riders
Application
• Forecast people + jobs 20-30 years out
• Estimate demand & test improvements
Primary use to forecast travel
Environmental Impact of Travel – Present
& Future
Impacts of large developments on the
region
EXAMPLE OF TRAVEL DEMAND MODEL:
STUDY AREA
EXAMPLE OF TRAVEL DEMAND MODEL:
DEFINING ROAD NETWORK
EXAMPLE OF TRAVEL DEMAND MODEL:
LAND USE
EXAMPLE OF TRAVEL DEMAND MODEL:
DEFINE TRAFFIC ANALYSIS ZONES
EXAMPLE OF TRAVEL DEMAND MODEL:
TRIP GENERATION
EXAMPLE OF TRAVEL DEMAND MODEL:
TRIP DISTRIBUTION
EXAMPLE OF TRAVEL DEMAND MODEL:
TRIP DISTRIBUTION
EXAMPLE OF TRAVEL DEMAND MODEL:
MODE CHOICE
EXAMPLE OF TRAVEL DEMAND MODEL:
MODE CHOICE
EXAMPLE OF TRAVEL DEMAND MODEL:
ASSIGNMENT
 GENERAL PROCEDURES OF TRAVEL
DEMAND MODELING

Specification: mathematical form is specified (e.g., regression, cross

classification, logit, lookup table) and the variables of interest are identified
Estimation: In model estimation, one or more mathematical procedures are
used to determine the likely values of the model parameters and coefficients.
Implementation: Once a model is estimated, it needs to be implemented so
that it can be applied. 
Calibration/Validation: The model is validated in a "base year" against
observed data to make sure that it is performing adequately and reasonably.
Based on the performance of the model in model validation, small
adjustments are made to the model ("model calibration") until the model
accurately replicates observed patterns and behavior.
Application: In the final step of the process, models are applied, generally
using computer software, so that they may be used for developing forecasts.
 WHAT IS A TRIP?
“…..travel occurs because of activities that occur at the
destination…travel is simply a means to an end…..”
• Trip means shortest possible division of a journey that has a
destination, a purpose and have to end within a day.
• Home based Trips – The trips with either Home is origin or
destination
• Non-Home based Trips – Rest of the Trips with purpose not
falling in Home Based Trips
• Usually Combination Trips are ignored and trip purposes
needs to be classified into few groups
• Travel decision is assumed as independent process
 WHAT IS A TAZ?

TAZ: Traffic Analysis Zone

Zones are characterized by their population, employment and other factors and are
the places where trip making decisions are made (trip producers) and the trip need
is met (trip attractors).
Trip making is assumed to begin at the center of activity in a zone (zone centroid).
 WHAT IS A MODE CHOICE

• Mode choice models are used to predict the number of trips that will use each of the available
modes
• for origin-destination pairs.
• Modes can include, for example, auto, premium transit, local transit, ridesharing, and walking.
• Discrete choice models, such as multinomial logit and nested logit models, are the
predominant modeling
 WHAT IS HIGHWAY NETWORK

The highway system and transit systems are represented as networks for computer
analysis.
Networks consist of links to represent segments of highways or transit lines and nodes
to represent intersections and other points on the network.
Data for links includes travel times on the link, average speeds, capacity, and
direction.
DATA IN TRAVEL DEMAND MODELING

Input Data
• Forecasts of future population, households, and employment
throughout the region; and
• Information about future transportation networks
Output Data
• Vehicular volumes on roads (flows on links)
• Speeds on links
• Origin/destination patterns - These are represented by zone-to-
zone trip tables, which are usually segmented by travel mode.
• Mode splits
• Emissions from cars and trucks (requires post processor and
emissions models)
SOFTWARE FOR TRAVEL DEMAND
MODELING

EMME II _GUI based software, less control for users

TransCAD – GUI based software, medium control for users
Cube – Highest control for users, most popular
• Cube Voyager – for travel forecasting based on the four-
step approach
• Cube Dynasim –for dynamic multimodal microsimulations
for intersection design and analysis;
• Cube Cargo—for freight forecasting and facility analysis;
• Cube Analyst –statistically optimized trip matrix
estimation
PTV Suite – Consists of VISUM, VISSIM, VISUM PuT
 OVERVIEW OF ACTIVITY-BASED
MODELS
Travel patterns are organized within activity-based models as sets of related
trips known as “tours”.
One of the benefits of estimating tours rather than trips is that coordinated
decisions within a household may be modeled comprehensively based on a
wider set of influential factors. 
Theoretical Benefits
Detail 
Precision
Consistency
Behavioral Realism
Analytic Flexibility 
Practical Benefits
Time chosen for travel
Travel Behavior related to demand policies such as “road pricing,
telecommuting programs, transit vouchers, and land use controls”
Non-motorized Travel
Time-Specific traffic volumes and speeds
Freight and Commercial Vehicle Movements.
WHAT IS A TOUR
HOW CAN MODELS BE IMPROVED?

Better data
Improve representation of bicycle and pedestrian travel
Better Auto Occupancy Models
Better time of day procedures
Use more trip purposes
Better representation of access
Incorporate costs into trip distribution
Add Land Use Feedback
Add intersection delays