PROBABILITY

BRIDGE COURSE
 Possibly,it would rain tonight
 There is a high chance of my getting the job

next month
 Here the words like possibly, high chance

indicates a degree of uncertainty about the

happening of the event.
 All these events are random in nature.
 Prob. Theory includes studying such events to

make the best possible decision in the face of

uncertainties.
 Probability is the science of decision – making

with calculated risks in the face of

uncertainty.
Basic terminology
 Random experiment : it is a procedure that
can result in many outcomes such that
although all outcomes may be known it is not
possible to predict the outcome associated
with a single experiment. E.g.
 Tossing of a coin whose all possibilities are

known, head and tail, but at each particular

toss, we don’t know if it will face head or tail.
 Sample space : of a random experiment is the
set S that includes all possible outcomes of
an experiment.
 In tossing of a fair coin the set of all the
possible outcomes is {H,T}
 Here, {H,T} is the sample space for this
experiment.
 Trail : each experiment is known as a trial.
E.g. tossing a coin once, is a single trial.
 Event : outcomes of the trials are known as

events. E.g. in tossing of a coin, outcomes are

either H or T. so, H and T are the events.
Types of events
 Exhaustive events
 Mutually exclusive events
 Independent and dependent events
 Equally likely events
 Complementary event
Questions
 Suppose a committee of 2 is to selected from
a group consisting of 5 people say R,S,V,A,N.
find the sample space.
 A manufacturer purchases equipments for

three vendor A,B,C. Let (1,2) denote the

event that on two successive days, the first
day order goes to vendor A and on the
second day vendor B gets the order. Write
the sample space.
Rules of event operations
 Intersection of events
 Union of events
 Complement of events
Definition Of Probability
 Classical technique
Based on the assumption that all events
are mutually exclusive and are equally likely
to occur.

P(E)=Number of elements in the

event/Number of elements in the
sample space
=n(E)/n(S)
Learning Objective
4-1: Define a
probability, a

Probability Conditions
sample space, and
a probability model.

If E is an experimental outcome, then P(E)

denotes the probability that E will occur and:
Conditions
1. 0  P(E)  1 such that:
– If E can never occur, then P(E) = 0
– If E is certain to occur, then P(E) = 1
2. The probabilities of all the experimental outcomes
must sum to 1

Copyright ©2017 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 4-11

Questions
 A box contains 2 red, 5 white and 6 blue
balls. What is the prob. That out of two balls
drawn, one is white and one is blue?
 What is the prob. That a leap year selected at

random will contain 53 sundays?

 A box contains 8 good pens, 4 pens with
minor defects and 3 pens with major defects.
Four pens are picked at random without
replacement. Find the prob. That
 All pens are defective
 Atleast one pen is good
 Exactly 2 pens are good
 One pen is good, one has a minor defect and
2 have a major defect
 One pen is good and 3 have major defects
Types of probability
 Marginal probability
 Union probability
 Joint probability
 Conditional probability
Laws and theorems of probability
 Additive law

P(A U B)=P(A)+P(B)-P(A П B)
IF A and B are mutually exclusive then P(A П B)= O
 Multiplication law
P(A П B) = P(A/B)*P(B) when Event B has aleady
occurred.
 Theory of Independence:
P(A П B) =P(A)*P(B)
Theory of independence

 Independence : A and B are independent if

and only if P(A&B)=P(A)*P(B)
Theory of independence

 Independence : A and B are independent if

and only if P(A&B)=P(A)*P(B)
EXAMPLE
 ABRC, a leading marketing research firm in India, wants to
collect information about households with computers and
Internet access in urban Mumbai. After conducting an intensive
survey, it was revealed that 60% of the households have
computers with Internet access; 70% of the household have
two or more computer sets. Suppose 50% of the households
have computers with Internet connection and two or more
computers. A household with computer is randomly selected.
What is the probability that the household has computers with Internet
access or two or more computers?
What is the probability that the household has computers with Internet
access or two or more computers, but not both?
What is the probability that the household has neither computers with
Internet access nor two or more computers?
Example
 A company is interested in understanding the consumer behaviour
of the capital of the newly formed state Chhattisgarh, that is,
Raipur. For this purpose, the company has selected a sample of 300
consumers and asked a simple question, ”Do you enjoy shopping?”
out of 300 respondents, 200 were males and 100 were females. Out
of 200 males, 120 responded Yes and out of 100 females, 70
responded yes. A respondent is selected randomly. Construct a
probability matrix and ascertain the probability that:
◦ The respondent is a male
◦ Enjoys shopping
◦ Is a female and enjoys shopping
◦ Is a male and does not enjoy shopping
◦ Is a female or enjoys shopping
◦ Is a male or does not enjoy shopping
◦ Is a male or female
Learning objective
4-4: Compute
conditional
probabilities and
Table 4.3 Contingency
Tables
assess
independence.

• A Contingency Table Summarizing Crystal’s

Cable Television and Internet Penetration
(Figures in Millions of Cable Passings)

Has cable Does Not Have

Events Total
Internet Service , B Internet Service , B
Has Cable Televisio n Service 6.5 5.9 12.4
Does Not Have Cable
3.3 11.7 15.0
Television Service , A
Total 9.8 17.6 27.4

Copyright ©2017 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 4-20

• What is the probability of selecting a)cable television
service
• B)cable internet service
• C)both
• D)probability of selecting television service but not cable
service
• E)Probability of selecting cable service and not television
service
• F)probablity of not selecting both
• G)probility of selecting either of them

Copyright ©2017 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. 4-21

EXAMPLE

 A market research firm is interested in

surveying certain attitudes in a small
community. There are 1250 households
broken down acc to income, ownership of a
telephone and with
Household ownership
annual ofHousehold
a T.V.with annual
income <=30000 income >30000

Telephone No telephon Telephone No telephon

subscr. subscr.
Own TV set 270 200 180 100

No TV set 180 100 120 100

 What is the prob of obtaining a TV owner in
drawing of households at random?
 If a household has annual income over Rs.

30,000 and is a telephone subscriber, what is

the prob that he has a TV?
 What is the conditional prob of drawing a

household that owns a TV, given that the

household is a telephonic subscriber?