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Container Shipping Market 2016 Outlook
Container Shipping Market 2016 Outlook
Tokyo
16 September 2015
2003
2005
2007
2009
2012
2014
1998
1999
2001
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2011
2013
16.0%
1,800
Capacity in TEU Thousands
13.8%
13.2%
12.8%
1,600
12.3%
9.1%
9.7%
1,200
9.3%
9.1%
8.9%
7.9%
1,000
5.5%
6.3%
6.0%
5.8%
5.4%
800 2016 deliveries lowest in %
600 y-o-y growth terms
400
200
Net Fleet Additions include adjustments for scrapping and delivery slippage
• 2015F deliveries : 1.8 million TEU (with low scrapping rate of 0.14 million TEU)
• 2016F deliveries : 1.4 million TEU (with higher scrapping rate of 0.30 million TEU)
Box Club : Sep 2015 © Alphaliner Page 3
ALPHALINER Containership Market Outlook
www.alphaliner.com – the worldwide reference in liner shipping © Alphaliner 1999-2015 – Contents not to be reproduced without permission
800,000 8%
Idle capacity in TEU
600,000 6%
400,000 4%
200,000 2%
0 0%
2011
2009
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
1,600,000
Overhang still not cleared
1,400,000 Additional capacity from reversal of slow steaming
1,200,000
Surplus LTAM capacity
1,000,000
Additional intra-Asia demand
Idle capicity in TEU
800,000
400,000
Diversion to US East Coast
200,000
US West Coast congestion
0
2009
2010
2013
2014
2011
2012
2015
18 rows across 23 15 98 34 16 0
45-46 m beam 0 0 1 0 0 0
7,500-8,700 teu 8,100-8,600 teu 8,400-9,600 teu 9,900-11,000 teu 11.300-11.600 teu
19 rows across 75 0 35 0 95 0
48-49 m beam 66 0 35 0 6 0
8,600-10,600 teu 10,000-11,000 teu 12,500-14,000 teu
20 rows across 0 0 0 0 41 38
51-52 m beam 0 0 0 0 33 16
13,300-14,500 teu 13,800-15,000 teu
Intra-Europe : 33%/70%%
Transatlantic : 29%/86% FE-Europe : 20%/60%
20%/66%
Transpacific : 11%/44% ME/ISC : 14%/44%
11%/47% 14%/45%
Africa : 33%/84%
Intra-Far East : 8%/32%
15%/37%
LTAM : 19%/73%
Oceania : 16%/57%
16%/59%
• Alliance re-alignment
Fear of disruptions was a factor in contract rate negotiations (Asia-Europe in Jan 2015)
CSAV & CCNI integration – impact on South American trades
17.3%
16.8%
20%
FE-Europe FE-US
15%
7.5%
6.0%
5.9%
5.5%
10%
3.9%
3.1%
1.3%
0.8%
5%
0%
-5%
-4.5%
-4.9%
-10%
-15%
-14.8%
-15.3%
-20%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
(to Jul)