Systems Analysis and Simulation

- An introduction -
Principles and theory of systems analysis and
simulation of “the School of de Wit”,
Wageningen University, Netherlands (1965-…)

Other major modelling groups:

• USA: IBSNAT/DSSAT (CERES, CROPGRO)
• Australia: APSRU (APSIM)

All three combined in ICASA: International

Consortium for the Application of Systems
Analysis
Systems, Models and Simulation

System: limited part of reality that contains

interrelated elements

System boundary: environment influences system, but

not the other way round

Model: simplified representation of a system e.g.

- scale model of ship
- mathematical model

Simulation: building mathematical models and study

performance in reference to real system
 The Rice System and boundary at field level

Radiation, CO2, H2O O 2 , H 2O

Temperature,
Wind speed
Vapor pressure

Mathematical model

nutrients

H 2O H2 O
Root zone

H2 O H2O, nutrients
Schematization of the production system:
Scientific equations
Cf = kdf,m / (0.8 √(1 – σ) )
kdr,bl = 0.5 Cf / sinβ or kdr,t = kdr,bl √(1 – σ)
Ia,L =  dIL /dL = k (1  ρ) I0 exp( k L)
Ia,df = dIdf,L/dL = kdf (1  ) I0,df exp(kdf LL) Light interception
and distribution
Ia,dr,t = dIdr,t,L/dL = kdr,t (1  ) I0,dr exp(kdr,t LL)
Ia,dr,dr = dIdr,dr,L/dL = kdr,dr (1  ) I0,dr exp(kdr,dr LL)
Ia,sh = Ia,df  (Ia,dr,t  Ia,dr,dr)
Ia,dr,dr = (1  σ) I0,dr/sinβ and fsl = Cf exp(kdr,bl LL)

Computer code
SUBROUTINE SRDPRF (GAID, CSLV, SINB, ECPDF, RDPDR, RDPDF, &
RAPSHL, RAPPPL, FSLLA)

! Reflection of horizontal and spherical leaf angle distribution

TMPR1 = SQRT (1. - CSLV)
RFLH = (1. - TMPR1) / (1. + TMPR1)
RFLS = RFLH * 2. / (1. + 2. * SINB)

! Extinction coefficient for direct radiation and total direct flux

CLUSTF = ECPDF / (0.8*TMPR1)
ECPBL = (0.5/SINB) * CLUSTF
ECPTD = ECPBL * TMPR1
 
! Absorbed fluxes per unit leaf area: diffuse flux, total direct
! flux, direct component of direct flux
RAPDFL = (1.-RFLH) * RDPDF * ECPDF * EXP (-ECPDF * GAID)
RAPTDL = (1.-RFLS) * RDPDR * ECPTD * EXP (-ECPTD * GAID)
RAPDDL = (1.-CSLV) * RDPDR * ECPBL * EXP (-ECPBL * GAID)
Diagram of a crop growth model

Evaporation Rain, irrigation

Soil-water
Soil water
tension

Transpiration

Light
Temperature 
 N leaves

Photosynthesis LAI
Development
rate

Development Partitioning
stage
Leaves

Assimilate Stems
Biomass
pool
Panicles

Maintenance Growth
Roots
respiration respiration
 Model output = calculated/predicted
• Crop growth and development
Simulation
• Yield
• Water requirements
• Nitrogen requirements
Model input: • ……
• Weather model 18000

16000

14000

• Crop properties 12000

10000 Run 3, WAGT

• Soil properties
Run 3, WAGT_OBS
Run 3, WLVG
8000 Run 3, WLVG_OBS
Run 3, WSO
Run 3, WSO_OBS
6000

• Management 4000

2000

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120
TIME

Real rice system

Crop models: descriptive and explanatory

Descriptive: describe relation at same level of

integration (e.g. leaf photosynthesis as
function of radiation falling on that leaf)

Explanatory: explain system from underlying

level of integration (e.g. assimilation of whole
crop as function of leaf photosynthesis
characteristics)
State variable approach
• State of a system can be defined at any time
• Changes can be expressed mathematically

State time 1 State time 2

(leaf area)

Rate of change ( leaf area)

x time step
LIGHT

CONV. LAI
PHOTOS EFF.

GROWTH

ASSIMILATES BIOMASS

MAINT
 Modelling: why the fuzz?
Radiation, CO2, H2O O 2 , H2 O

Temperature,
Wind speed
Vapor pressure

nutrients

H2O
H2O Root zone

H2 O H 2O, nutrients

Study the behavior of the system in relation to

(changes in) its environment

GxE
Crop ecology
 The Rice System and boundary at field level

Radiation, CO2, H2O O 2 , H 2O

Temperature,
Wind speed
Vapor pressure

nutrients

H 2O H2 O
Root zone

H2 O H2O, nutrients
Purpose and usefulness of modelling

• Test our knowledge and understanding

• Supports experimental data analysis
through process-based explanation
• Mimic field experiments
• Extrapolate experimental findings (time, space)
• Management optimization
• Crop ideotype design (breeding support)
• Agro-ecological zonation, yield gap
analysis, yield forecasting, climate change
ORYZA2000: a crop growth simulation model
for lowland (and upland/aerobic) rice

1. Potential production
2. Water-limited production
3. Nitrogen-limited production
1965 'Photosynthesis of leaf canopies'

Pedigree of crop growth

models from
1970 ELCROS “School of de Wit”

1975
ARID CROP
MICROWEATHER

BACROS PHOTON

1980 ARID CROP

(SAHEL)
SUCROS87
PA PRA N SUCROS

1985
WOFOST
SWHEAT
MA CROS
(SA WAH)
1990 SUCROS87 LI NTUL

SBFLEVO,
INTERCOM
WWFLEVO
SUCROS1,
SUCROS2 WOFOST 6.0 ORYZA
1995

2000 ORYZA2000
 Some validation

IR72 at IRRI farm; 1991-1993 WS and DS:

• Different N treatments from 0 to 400 kg ha-1
• Different N application timings
• Fully irrigated treatments
 IR72, DS 1992
7
7

6
Leaf Area 6

Index
5 5

4 4

3 3

?
2 2

1 1

0 0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120
TIME TIME

18000 18000

16000 Biomass 16000

14000
Total 14000

12000 12000

10000
Panicle 10000

8000 8000

6000 6000

4000
Leaves 4000

2000 2000

0 0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120
TIME TIME

225 kg N ha-1 0 kg N ha-1

 Yie ld (kg / ha )
11 IR72; 1993 DS
17 treatments
0-400 kg N ha-1
?
Different splits
N s upply (kg / ha ) N upta ke (kg / ha )

400 300

 Observed
o Simulated

400
N s upply (kg / ha )
 Yield simulated (t ha-1)
12
IR72; all data
10 1991-1993
8 39 treatments
6 N = 39 0-400 kg N ha-1
4 Different splits
2

0
0 5 10
-1
Yield observed (t ha )
 IR72, DS 1992: ponded water depth
P o nd e d wa te r d e p th (mm)
120
 Observed
Simulated
100

80

60

40

20

0
38 58 78 98 118
Da y o f ye a r
 Case study 1: water management
optimization (Boling et al., 2001)

IR64 at Jakenan, Indonesia; 1995-2000

Irrigated and rainfed treatments

General objectives:
• Optimize crop scheduling (best use of rain)
• Optimize irrigation water application
• Toposequence effect (low-deep groundwater)
 Solar radiation, MJ m-2 d-1

Jakenan climate
24
(a)
22
20
18
16
and
14
12 cropping system
10
8

-1
Rainfall, mm (10 d)
160
(b) Probability of exceedance (P):
140 P=0.20
120 P=0.50
P=0.80
100
80
60
40
20
0
O N D J F M A M J J A S O

(c)

Dry-seeded rice Transplanted rice Upland

crop
(Gogorancah) (Walik Jerami) (Palawija)

O N D J F M A M J J A S O

Time
 First step: model validation: crop

Dry matter, kg ha-1

18000
WiTnS1, measured
1996WrTnS1, measured
15000 Irrigated
WiTnS2, measured
WiTdS1, measured
12000
WrTdS1, measured
WrTdS2, measured Rainfed early
9000
WiTnS1, simulated
WrTnS1, simulated
6000
WrTnS2, simulated
3000
Rainfed late
0
40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
Calendar day
Water table depth, cm
0

-20
(a) April-June 1995
(walik jerami season) Model validation:
-40

-60 groundwater
-80

-100

-120

-140
A M J J A
20
(b) December 1997-March 1998
0 (gogorancah season)
-20 measured
simulated
-40

-60

-80

-100

-120

-140
D J F M A
Modelling depth of
40
groundwater difficult!
 Use “scenarios” in the
20

-20

-40
model explorations:
-60 - shallow
-80

-100 (c) November 1998-February 1999

- medium
-120
N D J
(gogorancah season)
F M
- deep
Day of seeding
 kPa Rainfed early; 20 cm depth
100
Model validation:
80
soil water tension
60

40
20
0
90 100 110 120 130 140 150
Day

Kpa
kPa Jakenan, 1996.20WrTdS2,
Rainfed late; cm depth20 cm
100
80
60
40
20
0
120 130 140 150 160 170
Day
Model exploration: irrigated and rainfed yield as
function of sowing date

Simulated yield, kg ha-1

10000
rainfed, shallow water table
rainfed, medium water table
8000 rainfed, deep water table
irrigated

6000

4000

2000

0
O N D J F M A M J J A S O
Day of seeding
Simulated yield, kg ha-1
8000
(a) rainfed
3
irrigated (I1), 0.34 cm cm
-3
Model exploration:
6000 irrigated (I2), PI to M, 7.5 mm d

irrigated (I3), PI to M, 3.3 mm d

-1

-1
effect of small
4000
irrigation
applications
2000

Water requirement, mm
1400
Irrigation scenario: (b)
3 -3
1200 I1: 0.34 cm cm
I2: PI to M, 7.5 mm d-1
1000 -1
I3: PI to M, 3.3 mm d

800

600

400

200

0
O N D J F M A M J J A S O
Day of seeding
Model exploration: optimizing irrigation application

Yield increase, kg ha-1 m-3 irrigation

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

I1: 0.34 cm3 cm-3

0.2
I2: PI to M, 7.5 mm d-1
I3: PI to M, 3.3 mm d-1
0.0
J F M A M
Day of seeding
 Case study 2: agro-ecological zonation
and yield forecasting (European Union)

Example for wheat (SUCROS model used)

General objectives:
• Map potential and rainfed yields in EU
• Map yield gap in EU
• Predict yield in EU
Step 1: weather stations and grid cells
Step 2: soil data
Step 3: running model in GIS: potential yield
Step 3: running model in GIS: yield prediction
Step 3: running model in GIS: yield gap analysis