A Tour of The World: Prepared By: Fernando Quijano and Yvonn Quijano

A Tour of
The World
მაკროეკონომიკური პოლიტიკის
CHAPTER 11
გავლენა ეკონომიკის განვითარების
CHAPTER
ტენდენციებზე
Prepared by:
Fernando Quijano and Yvonn Quijano
S i n a a r s i:
A Tour of
The World
I. ekonomikuri politikia da ekonomikuri azris ganviTareba
II. makroekonomikuri politika da ekonomikuri zrda
CHAPTER 11
III. saqarTvelos makroekonomikuri politikis Sefaseba (2002-2008
CHAPTER
wlebi)
Prepared by:
Sinaarsi 2009. 2 / 21
saxelmwifo ekonomikuri politikis arsi
•
A Tour of
saxelmwifo gamoxatavs sazogadoebas, raRac korporaciuli gagebiT, Sedegad is
warmoadgens iuridiul pirs, romelsac gaaCnia ufleba-movaleobebi, romelsac SeuZlia
dakavdes nebismieri saxis saqmianobiT The iseveWorld
rogorc, nebismier sxva fizikur Tu iuridiul
subieqts. saxelmwifo:
 Tavad axdens sxva korporaciebis sanqcirebas, magram Tavad legitimacias iRebs msgavsi bunebis
sxva warmonaqmnebisagan - sazogadoebisagan;
 iRebs garkveul funqciebs, romelic rogorc suverenulma saxelmwifom mxolod man unda itvirtos;
CHAPTER 11
 axorcielebs am funqciebs garkveul teritoriaze, sadac misi uflebebi eqskluziuri da aRiarebulia;
• nebismieri politika dasaxuli amocanebis gadaWris strategiuli da taqtikuri gzebis
CHAPTER
erTobliobaa.
 saxelmwifos ekonomikuri politika, rogorc sazogadoebis arCevani da Tanxmoba,

ekonomikuri miznebis miRwevis stradtegiuli da taqtikuri gzebis erToblioba, romelzec
gavlenas axdens, rogorc calkeul individebis ise sazogadoebis sxvadasxva jgufebis
Prepared by:
interesebi.
Tavi IIIIIIIQI. Ekonomikuri politikia da ekonomikuri azris ganviTareba 2009. 3 / 21

makroekonomikuri politika
A Tour of
makroekonomikuri politika The World
warmoadgens makroekonomikuri
miznebis
miRwevis strategiuli da taqtikuri gzebis erTobliobas, romlis ZiriTadi
miznebia:
CHAPTER 11
 ekonomikuri zrda;
 sruli dasaqmeba;
CHAPTER
 ekonomikuri efeqturoba;
 fasebis stabilizacia;
 ekonomikuri Tavisufleba;
 Semosavlebis samarTliani ganawileba;
 ekonomikuri uzrunvelyofa;
Prepared by:
Fernando
savaWro balansi.
Quijano and Yvonn Quijano

Tanamedrove saxelmwifo ekonomikuri politikis formireba
A Tour of
qsenofonte - exeba gacvlis ganviTarebisaTvis fulis
maragebis aucileblobis sakiTxs.
The
platoni da aristotele gamodian meurneobis World
marTvaSi
saxelmwifos monawileobis sasargeblod da ayalibeben
aristokratiuli komunizmis ideas.
merkantilistebi fiziokratebi da klasikosebi

a.monkretieni, J.bodeni, J.b.kolberi, f.kene, a. tiurgo, v. marabo, v. diupon de
CHAPTER 11
p.l.buagilbergi, j.lou, a.r.jiusti da sxvebi. nemuri, g. letroni da sxvebi
aqtiuri saxelmwifo politikisa da u.peti, a.smiTi, d.rikardo, t.r.malTusi, J.s.moli
CHAPTER
proteqcionistuli politikis momxreebi da sxvebi
aqtiuri saxelmwifo politikis winaRmdegi da
Tavisufali bazris ideis momxreebi
a. smiTi da d. rikardo
absoluturi da SefardebiTi upiratsobis Teoriebi
Prepared by:

Tanamedrove saxelmwifo ekonomikuri politikis formireba
A Tour of
i.fiSeri – fulis raodenobrivi Teoria.
fuli rogorc gadaxdis da mimoqcevis saSualeba
The World
fulis masis regulirebis problema
k.vikseli – fulis masisa da saprocento

i. fiSeri ganakveTis kavSiris mikroekonomikuri kvleva
a.marSali – fulize moTxovna da k. viqseli

fulze moTxovnis spekulaciuri da
k.haurti da kaseli – oqros standartis
sifrTxilis motivebi
CHAPTER 11
pirobebSi fuls ara aqvs saSualeba
adaptirdes garigebebze moTxovnebis
a. marSali Sesabamisad, misi stiqiurobisa da
CHAPTER
arakanonzomierebis gamo
r. haurti da g. kaseli
sazogadoeba iqmneba Cveni moTxovnilebebis
gamo, xolo mTavroba Cveni mankierebis gamo,…
sazogadoeba nebismier SemTxvevaSi
keTildReobaa, xoloo mTavroba ukeTes
SemTxvevaSi aucilebeli boroteba, xolo uares
SemTxvevaSi – autaneli boroteba.
t. peini
f. bastia gamodis e.w. “dakanonebuli Zarcvis” winaaRmdeg,
Prepared by:
ris mixedviTac mTavroba kanonis ZaliT, romelsac is Tavad
Fernando Quijano and Yvonn Quijano iRebs iTvisebs imas, rac mas ar uwarmoebia
f. bastia

makroekonomikuri politikis formireba
A Tour of
zogadi Teoria
“ZiriTadi fsiqologiuri kanoni”
The World
avtonomiuri xarjebis multiplikatori
likvidobis upiratesobis Teoria
j.m.keinsi
neoklasikuri sinTezi
anticikluri regulirebis sabiujeto-sakredito meqanizmi
aqselerator-multiplikatoris modelebi
CHAPTER 11
e.hanseni, j.hiksi da p.samuelson
CHAPTER
grZelvadiani ekonomikuri zrdis Teoria
postkeinzianelebi
kembrijuli zrdis Teoria
r.xarodi da e.domari
kapitalaRWurva, rogorc ekonomikuri zrdis
r.soloue.felpsi faqtori
Prepared by:
mecnierul teqnikuri progresi, rogorc
Fernando Quijano
ekonomikuri zrdis and Yvonn Quijano
faqtori; n.kaldori, j.robinsoni
kapitalSeiararebis oqris wesi Sromismwarmoebluroba, rogorc ekonomikuri
zrdis faqtori

A Tour of
zogadi Teoria
institucionalizmi
The World
j.m.keinsi
j.k.gelbreiTi
saxelmwifos mxridan socialuri
CHAPTER 11
problemebis gadaWra
CHAPTER
Prepared by:

(neoklasikuri mimarTulebebi)
A Tour of
zogadi Teoria monetarizmi
“ZiriTadi fsiqologiuri kanoni” Cikagos skola
The World
j.m.keinsi
miwodebis Teoria
f.naiti
avstriuli skola Tavisufali bazris
CHAPTER 11
upiratesoba
m.fridmani
CHAPTER
a.laferi permanentuli Semosavlis Teoria
fulze mdgradi moTxovnis Teoria
adaftiuri molodinis Toria
sazogadoebrivi arCevnis f.xaieki anticikluri sabiujeto-sakredito politikis
Teoria
fasebis Teoria winaaRmdegi
meTodologiuri individualizmi miniapolisis skola
fulis gansaxelmwifoebrioba
socializmis krotika
Prepared by:
j.bukeneni, g.taloki, u.niskareni
t.sarJenti, r.lukasi , r.barou
racionaluri molodinis Teoria
A Tour of
zogadi Teoria
The World
j.m.keinsi
ekonomikuri modelis saSualebiT ekonomiuri politikis
CHAPTER 11
instrumentebis gamoyenebis Sesabamisi parametrebis
dadgena
ian tinbergeni
CHAPTER
arasrulyofilis infirmaciis modeli
racionaluri molodinis Teoria
lukasis kritika
r.lukasi
Prepared by:

A Tour of
The World
CHAPTER 11
monetaruli politikia
CHAPTER
Prepared by:
Tavi IIIIIIIQII. makroekonomikuri politika da ekonomikuri zrda 2009. 11 / 21

keinzianuri koncefcia
 koncefciis eyrdnoba Semdeg mTavar A Tour of

hipoTezebs:
1.
The World
efeqturi moTxovnis hipoTeza – wonasworoba miiRweva mxolod im cvladebis
cvlilebiT, romlebic moqmedeben efeqtian moTxovnaze da ara fasebis moqnili
cvlilebiT. arsasruli dasaqmenbis mizezi saqonelsa da momsaxurebaze
arasakmarisi efeqtiani moTxovnaa, romelic umetewilad gamowveulia
investiciebis ukmarisobiT. xolo am ukanasknelis mTavar mizezi, saprocento
CHAPTER 11
ganakveTis maRali normaa;
2. fulze moTxovnis ori komponentis gamijvna: transaqciuli moTxovna da
CHAPTER
spekulaciuri moTxovna
3.  M / P  d
 ky
xisti nominaluri xelfasebis hipoTeza;  M / P  d
 L(r ) y.
4. xisti fasebis hipoTeza;
 koncefciaSi monetaruli moqmedebis ori arxia:

Prepared by:
1. realuri saprocento ganakveTi;
2. fasebis done;

realuri saprocento ganakveTis arxi:

A Tour of

The
F World
p  r.
K
CHAPTER 11
likvidobis upiratesobis Teoriis xisti fasebis hipoTezis
mixedviT gaTvaliswinebiT
CHAPTER
M
  r 
  I 
  N 
  Y
Prepared by:

fasebis donis arxi:

A Tour of

ekonomikis dinamikuri modeli

The World
 , 0 y  ln Y ,
0 1
 y   o   1 r  0  h   A0 , p  ln P ,
(IS)
 1  h  b
 y   0  m     1  r
ˆ (LM) n  ln N ,
  ln a
 y  al
CHAPTER 11
(sawarmoo funqcia) M t 1 l m  ln M ,
 s s 0  , 1  i
 n  n (Sromis miwodeba) kP t k
CHAPTER
o
  p    ( a  1)n  0 , 1  0   lnW,
(Sromaze moTxovna)
 1
ˆ   ( n s  n)  0
(filifsis mrudi) k ,
0  a 1 V
Wt  Wt 1 M t  M t 1 Pt  Pt 1 1
ˆ  , mˆ  ,  , h ,
W t 1 by:
Prepared
M t 1 Pt 1 1  mpc  mpc  t
 A Fernando Quijano and Yvonn Quijano
avtonomiuri jarjebi; li 
likvidurobisaken zRvruli midrekileba;
moxmarebisadmimpc  midrekileba.
zRvruli
fasebis donis arxi:

A Tour of

ekonomikis dinamikuri modeli

The World
Yt D  Yt 1  1  m
ˆ   t   2 1 
 012 
, 2  1 0
CHAPTER 11
 1  1 1  1
 s  t 1
Yt  YF    
CHAPTER
 YF
 - oukenis parametri.
̂t  -xisti
t 1 xelfasebis hipoTezidan gamomdinare
  .by:
mˆPrepared

A Tour of
π The πWorld
π'
Y’
CHAPTER 11
Yd
YD
Ys
CHAPTER
YD2
Ys
Ys2 YD1
π 0 Ys Y
1
Ys0 YD0
16Y Y’
Y Y
Prepared by:
m    
  p    N 
  Y

Seguebis procesi dasruldeba, roca ̂t  0

A Tour of

The World
  1 ( mˆ t   t )     t  pt 2 
ˆ     n0   
s

a  1 a a 
mˆ   .
CHAPTER 11
1
CHAPTER
ramdenadac, ˆ t   t 1  ˆ t 1   t  ˆ    mˆ t  ˆ t  1 
a
ˆ t 1  m̂t  
Prepared by:

modilianis moxmarebis funqcia
 Tu Ct  mpcy Yt  mpc A
t Tour of
The World
 Mt 
sadac, 
t    , Bt 
 Pt 
CHAPTER 11
CHAPTER
m
  C     
  p    N 
  Y
Prepared by:

monetaristuli koncefcia

A Tour
koncefciis eyrdnoba Semdeg mTavar of
hipoTezebs:
1. uxilavi xelis Teorias
The World
2. fulis raodenobriv gantolebas M / P  ky
3. moqnili nominaluri xelfasebis da fasebis hipoTeza;
4. inflaciuri molodinis arsebobis hipoTezas;
CHAPTER 11
p  m  y  ln k    mˆ  ( yt  yt1)  y tD  y t 1   m
ˆ t 
CHAPTER
  s
ˆ     n s  n   ˆ e Yt  YF   t   e
 1
  t  ( y t 1  ˆ
m   e
 yF )
2
 
Prepared by: y  1 (y  m ˆ   e  yF )
 t
2
t 1

π π
A Tour of
The World
π'
Ys
YD
CHAPTER 11
Ys3 YD3
Ys2 YD2
CHAPTER
π 0 Ys YYD
1 1
Ys0 YD0
20Y
Y Y
  ˆ  ˆ   
       e   
m ˆ          n 
e
  y    

 
  y d

Prepared by:


ˆ e   
 ˆ and
Fernando Quijano  Yvonn

Quijano
   
  y  yF 

      
  n 
  y  
e  
         m 
e
ˆ ˆ

̂t  0   
e
Seguebis procesi dasruldeba, roca
A Tour of

The World
 ( mˆ    a 2 e  a )  ˆ
m      p  ln  e

ˆ     n0   
s

a (1  a )  a  1 
CHAPTER 11
CHAPTER
 ˆ    ˆ
m      p   (    e
)
a 1
ˆ     e
 mˆ .
Prepared by:

racionaluri molodini da arasrulyofili informaciis modeli
racionaluri molodinis Teoriis mixedviT molodini mTlianad saprognozo maCvenebelia da

A Tour mcdari:of

igi mxolod SemTxveviT SeiZleba aRmoCndes
mˆ   e The World
 e  .
 e
 E ( ) e - prognozis SemTxveviTi Secdomaa
e  mˆ  E ( mˆ ) - realuri Sedegebi mxolod monetarulma Sokma SeiZleba
CHAPTER 11
gamoiwvios
 arasrulyofil informaciis pirobebSi arasrulyofilad afaseben inflaciis mosalodnel
CHAPTER
maCvenebels da Sedegad ver asxvaveben fardobiTi da nominaluri fasebis cvlilebas
erTmaneTisagan, rac warmoebis zrdis mizezic xdeba:
W
w   t  1

  w 
* Pt e 1
 w* 

 Pt e 1  Pt  1  P  
  1   w  w
* *  t 1   t 1
e
.
P 1   t 1
 Pt  1  Pt  1  P  t 1  
Prepared by:
*
w - wonasworuli
Fernando Quijano xelfasis
and YvonnmniSvneloba
Quijano

preskotisa da kidlandis modeli
molodini gavlenas axdens monetarul politikaze:
A Tour of

S  S ( t , u t ) Thesargeblianobis
- socialuri World funqcia
 saxelmwifo cdilobs am funqciis optimizacias, Semdegi SezRudvebis
pirobebSi:    (u t  u * )   e
t t
 e
 E ( t )
CHAPTER 11
t
t
CHAPTER
SeTanxmebuli
wonasworoba
optimaluri C
wonasworoba A
Prepared by: O ut  u*
Fernando Quijano and Yvonn Quijano  t ( te )1
 t (  te )
0

fulis sargeblianobis funqcia
(MIU-modeli)
fulis sargeblianobis funqciis gansazRvra:
A Tour of


U    U (ct , lt )
t c  moxmareba
t 0 The World
- sargeblianobis funqcia
l  Tavisufali dro
1
U c  0 , U c  0 , U l  0 , U l  0 .    diskontirebis koeficienti
1 
  or mosazRvre periodSi moxmarebisadmi upiratesobi
CHAPTER 11
miniWebis koeficienti
   ( c t , m t ) - transaqciuli drois xarjebis funqcia
CHAPTER
 c  0  m  0 M / pm
 
U  
t 0
 U ( c t , T   ( c t , m t ))  U 
t

t 0
 t U ( c t , l t , m t ).
Prepared by:
U m  0 , U m  0 .
T - mTliani drois maragi

(MIU-modeli)
sabiujeto Sezrudva:
A Tour of

1. G t  Pt f ( nt , k t )  Pt c t  Pt  k t 1
d The World
 (1   )k   W ( n  n )  M
d s d
 M td1  (1  Rt ) 1 Btd1  Btd .
t t t t t
saxelmwifos wminda danazogis zrda nominaluri fuladi

wminda investiciebi
transferti saxiT
CHAPTER 11
sawarmoo funqcia damatebul muSaxelze obligaciebSi fuladi
CHAPTER
gaweuli xarji dabandebebi
Rt - nominaluri saprocento ganakveTi
 - Amortizaciis norma
2. T  n ts  l t  0
Prepared by:

(MIU-modeli)
optimizaciis amocana:
A Tour of

  tU ( c t , The World

t 0
lt , m t )  max d s
c , k  1 , n , n ,l , m d
,bd1
.
gt  f (ntd , kt )  ct  kt 1  (1   )kt  wt (ntd  nts )  mtd  (1   t )1 mtd1  (1  rt )1 btd1  btd  0.
T  nts  lt  0,
CHAPTER 11
CHAPTER
(1' ) U c  1t  0 ,
( 2 ' )   1t  1t 1 (1    f k ( n td , k t ))  0 ,
( 3 ' ) f n ( n td , k t )  w t  0 ,
( 4 ' ) 1t w t   2 t  0 ,
( 5 ' ) U l   2 t  0 ,
Prepared by:
( 6 ' ) U m  1t  1t 1 (1   t 1 ) 1  0 ,
( 7 ' )   1t (1  rt ) 1  1t 1  0 .
(MIU-modeli)
modelis daskvnebi:
A Tour of

(1' ), ( 6 ' ) da
( 7 ' ) gantolebebidan
1. U m  1t  1t (1  rt ) 1 (1  The
t 1 ) 1
World
0  U m  Rt ( Rt  1)U c
U c  0 , U m  0 fulze moTxovnis funqcia
2. Tu U c,m  0, m  m ( c t , R t ).
CHAPTER 11
m c  0 m R  0
CHAPTER
(1' ), (4 ' ) (5' ) gantolebebidan
da
U l
3.  1t  U c
w
Ul
1
 
 
 R 
 m  1  l  n 
Uc   y w
Prepared by:
Fernando
M  MQuijano and Yvonn Quijano
  t t 1
.
M t 1
zemoT moyvanilis Teoriebis mizania:
A Tour of
The World
1. fuli aris neitraluri, Tu ara da SesaZlebelia, Tu ara monetaruli
politikis gamoyeneba ekonomikur koniunqtureze gavlenis
mosaxdenad;
2. Tu SesaZlebelia monetaruli politikis gamoyeneba ekonomikur
CHAPTER 11
koniunqtureze gavlenis mosaxdenad, maSin rogoria monetaruli
transmisiis meqanizmi da misi Sedegebi;
CHAPTER
Prepared by:

fulis Tvisebebi
 fulis ori Tviseba: maRali likviduroba da Rirebulebis Senaxvis Tviseba – ar

A Tour of
axasiaTebs Tanabari xarisxiT fulis yvela saxeobas. naRdi fuli da moTxovnamde
The World
depozitebi ufro likviduria, vidre Semnaxveli depozitebi an vadiani depozitebi.
magram es ukanasknelebi ufro momgebiania Rirebulebis Senaxvis kuTxiT. amis
mixedviT fulad statistikaSi gamoyofen fulis oTx agregats.
CHAPTER 11
 “gapirovnebuli valdebuleba” _ vgulisxmob naRd fuls, radgan naRdi fulis
CHAPTER
mWeris winaSe konkretuli iuridiuli da fizikuri piri ar flobs valdebulebas, is
sazogado valdebulebis mqone fasiani qaraldia, romelic swored sazogadoebis
SeTanxmebis Sedegia.
 “gaupirovnebeli valdebuleba” _ gulisxmob iseT valdebulebas, romelic
gulisxmobs fasiani qaRaldis mWeris mimarT konkretuli iuridiuli Tu fizikiri piris
valdebulebas.
Prepared by:

monetaruli politikis instrumentebi da orientirebi
A
 monetaruli politikis instrumentebi: Tour of
The World
1. sadiskonto ganakveTi;
2. operaciebi Ria bazarze;
3. savaldebulo sarazervo normebi;
CHAPTER 11
CHAPTER
 monetaruli politikis Sualeduri orientirebi:
1. saprocento ganakveTi;
2. fuladi agregatebi;
3. gacvliTi kursebi;
Prepared by:

monetaruli politika da sagareo ekonomikuri wonasworoba
A Tour
 centraluri banki abalansebs erovnuli offulis miwodebas
da ucxouri
The World
 gacvliTi kursis stabilurobis politika
1. erToblivi moTxovnis Sokis prevencia;
 ucxouri kapitalis nakadebsa da sagareo vaWrobis moculoba;
CHAPTER 11
o devalvaciur molodins da arasrulyofili informaciis gamo didia riskebi
saerTaSoriso finansuri Tu sasaqonlo operaciebis ganxorcielebis dros.
CHAPTER
2. fulze moTxovnis cvlilebaze reagireba;
 Tavisufali mcuravi kursis politika

1. monetaruli Sokis eqsportis prevencia;
2. egzogenurad
Prepared by: warmoqmnili moTxovnis Sokebis nivelireba;

Fernando CaSenebuli stabilizatori;
Quijano and Yvonn Quijano

mastabiluzirebeli monetaruli politikis problemebi
 monetaruli politika mniSvnelovanAgavlenas

Touraxdens
of ekonomikis koniunqturaze
The World
moklevadian periodSi, Tumca garZelvadian periodSi mas fasebis donis
cvlilebamde mivyavarT;
 informaciis miReba-gadamuSavebasa da gadawyvetilebis miReba-
ganxorcielebas Soris sakmaod didi lagia;
 ekonomikuri agentebis mxridan centraluri bankis mimarT ndobis problema;
CHAPTER 11
CHAPTER
 am viTarebaSi gamosavlad moiazreben:
1. centraluri bankis mier garkveuli wesebiT moqmedeba da garkveuli valdebulebebis
Sesruleba;
2. centraluri bankis xelmZRvanelobisaTvis valdebulebis Sesrulebis stimulebis Seqmna;
3. centraluri bankis damoukideblobis gafarToveba;
4. centraluri bankis xelmZRvanelad iseTi adamianis damiSvna, romelic midrekili iqneba
Prepared
mkacro by:
monetaruli politikis gatarebisaken.

saqarTvelos monetaruli politika
(2002-2008 wlebi)
A Tour
 saqarTvelos erovnuli banki, “saqarTvelos ofbankis Sesaxeb”, saqarTvelos
erovnuli
organuli kanonis mixedviT:
The World
o fulad-sakredito da savaluto politikis SemmuSavebeli da ganmaxorcielebeli
organoa. igi am politikas saqarTvelos parlamentis mier gansazRvruli ZiriTadi
mimarTulebebis Sesabamisad SeimuSavebs da axorcielebs;
CHAPTER 11
o erovnuli bankis ZiriTadi mizani fasebis stabilurobis uzrunvelyofaa. Tumca
CHAPTER
erovnulma bankma xeli unda Seuwyos mdgard ekonomikur zrdas, Tu es
SesaZlebelia ise, rom safrTxe ar Seeqmnas mis ZiriTad amocanas;
o erovnuli bankis prezidenti pasuxismgebelia inflaciis maCvenebelze;
Prepared by:
Tavi III. saqarTvelos makroekonomikuri politikis Sefaseba (2002-2008 wlebi) 2009. 33 / 21

(2002-2008 wlebi)
A Tour
 saqarTvelos erovnuli bankis winaSe mdgari of
umniSvnelovanesi problemebi: fasebis
arastabiluroba, ucxouri valutis didi raodenobiT Semodineba, dolarizacia;
The World
CHAPTER 11
CHAPTER
saSualo wliri absoluturi zrda
2002-2008 2002-2008
mimoqcevaSi erovnuli valuti moculoba
Prepared by: 21% 3-jer
inflacia
Fernando Quijano and Yvonn Quijano 7.5% 1.55-jer
realuri mSp-s zrdis tempi 8% 1.61-jer
(2002-2008 wlebi)
 ucxouri valutis didi raodenobiT Semodineba;
A Tour of
The World
CHAPTER 11
CHAPTER
 ori mniSvnelovani uaryofiTi tendenciiT gamoiyofa:
1. ucxouri valutis SemodinebiT erovnuli valutis kursis gamyareba auaresebs saqarTvelos
savaWro pirobebs da aferxebs eqsportis zrdis tempebs;
2. ucxouri savaluto rezervebis dagroveba da erovnuli valutis kursis stabilurobis uzrunvelyofa
Prepared by:
axdens inflaciur zewolas ekonomikaze da zrdis erovnuli valutis Warb miwodebs
ekonomikaSi.

(2002-2008 wlebi)
 dolarizacia;
A Tour of
The World
CHAPTER 11
CHAPTER
Prepared by:

(2002-2008 wlebi)
A Tour of
The World
 erovnulma bankma Secvala rigi instrumentebisa da gaafarTova monetaruli
instrumentebi:
1. 2006 wlis maisidan SeimuSaves saxelmwifo obligaciebis auqcioni;
2. 2006 wlis seqtembridan - erT wlamde vadianobis sadepozito sertifikatebi, romelis
CHAPTER 11
gayidvac auqconis wesiT xorcieldeba. (mis wilada fulis bazarze amoRebuli
likvidonis naSTis didi wili modis da fulis masisa da saprocento ganakveTis
CHAPTER
regulirebisaTvis sakmaod moqnili instrumentia);
3. 2007 wlis ivnisidan ZalaSi Sevida axali kanoni, romelic komerciuli bankebis mier
ucxouri valutiT moziduli saxsrebis ucxourive valutiT darezervebis uflebas iZleva.
adre darezerveba mxolod erovnul valutaSi xdeboda.
4. 2008 wlis seqtembridan SeimuSaves – refinansirebis sesxebis instrumenti.
Prepared by:

(2002-2008 wlebi)
rA kTour
~ ~k M~of ~
Y  k1  k2 ~ 3 4  k5 P
The World
k 2 , k3 , k 4 , k5  elastkurobis koeficientebia
r- saprocento ganakvetisaTis gavlenis dasaxasiTeblad SeirCa sesxebze saSualo

Sewonili saprocento ganakveTi;
CHAPTER 11
M- fuladi agregatis gavlenis dasaxasiTeblad M2 fuladi agregati;
CHAPTER
P - fasebis donis gavlenis dasaxasiTeblad samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsi;
 - realuri gacvliTi kursis gavlenis dasaxasiTeblad realuri efeqturi gacvliTi

kursis indeqsi.
Prepared by:

(2002-2008 wlebi)
r  0.40A
~ Tour
0.74 M of
~ ~ ~
Y  4.26  0.25 ~ 0.85 P
(t ) ( 3.04 ) (1.009)
The World
( 1.116 ) ( 3.746) ( 1.648)
R  0.89, R  0.8781, F  49( Fkr  2.8), DW  1.87(u0.05  1.75)

2 2
8.4
8.0
.2
CHAPTER 11
.1 7.6
.0
CHAPTER
-.1
-.2
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
nar Ceno bi T i wevr i

eko no mi ku r i z r d a
eko no mi ku r i z r d i s i mi t ac i a
• modeliSi vakvirdebiT:
Prepared by:
1. multikolinialurobas
2. avtokorelirebulobas

(2002-2008 wlebi)
2,000,000 0.25
1,800,000
1,600,000
A Tour of
0.20
1,400,000
1,200,000 The World
0.15
1,000,000
M2
r
800,000 0.10
600,000
400,000 0.05
200,000
CHAPTER 11
0 -
1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500
y y
CHAPTER
300.0 140.0
250.0 120.0
100.0
200.0
80.0
150.0
p
e
60.0
100.0
40.0
50.0 20.0
Prepared
0.0 by: 0.0
1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500
y y

(2002-2008 wlebi)
Y  4.45 0.39 ~  0.25 MA 0Tour

.46 P   0of
~ ~ ~
.08 D1  0.1 D4
(t ) ( 7.49) ( 2.54) ( 3.65)
The World
( 2.15) ( 6.36) ( 8.77)
R  0.99, R  0.98, F  25( Fkr  2.68), DW  2.1(4  DW  1.9; u0.05  1.96)

2 2
8.4
8.2
8.0
.04
CHAPTER 11
7.8
.02 7.6
CHAPTER
.00
-.02
-.04
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

• modeliSi vakvirdebiT:
1. multikolinialurobas
Prepared by:
2. arasakmarisia monacemebi
~ ~ ~
k3  0.13; k 4  0.61; k5  0.37. - stantardizebuli koeficientebi
(2002-2008 wlebi)
Y  3.04 0.35 M  0.06 DA Tour of

~ ~
 0.1 D4
The World
1
(t ) ( 7.49) ( 29.84) ( 4.93) ( 7.52)
R2  0.98, R 2  0.98, F  5.11(Fkr  3.01), DW  1.24(u0.05  1.03, u0.05  1.67)
8.4
8.2
CHAPTER 11
8.0
.08 7.8
CHAPTER
.06
.04 7.6
.02
.00
-.02
-.04
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Prepared by:

stimulirebuli bumi saqarTveloSi
• fulis brunvis siCqaris Semcireba;

A Tour of
• sesxebze realuri Sewonili saprocento ganakveTis Semcireba 19.4%-11.1%;
The World
Catarebuli ekonometrikulikvleva gvaCvenebs, rom:

1. fulis masis erTi procentiT zrda zrdis realuri mSp-s zrdis temps 0.35%-iT.
CHAPTER 11
2. realuri mSp-s zrdis tempTan dadebiT korelaciaSia fasebis done;
3. realuri gacvliTi kursis indeqsis uaryofiTi korelacia realuri mSp-s zrdis mimarT.
CHAPTER
4. fulis masis da fasebis donis amgvari damokidebuleba realuri mSp-s zrdis mimarT
mianiSnebs qveyanaSi monetaruli faqtorebuT gamowveyl stimulirebul bumis arsebobas.
5. realuri gacvliTi kursis indeqsis uaryofiTi korelacias realuri mSp-s zrdis mimarT SeiZleba
Semdegi interpretacia mivceT, rom ucxouri fuladi nakadebis Semodineba, romelic zrdis
nominalur gacvliT kurss da maSasadame zrdis realur gacvliT kurs auaresebs sagareo
vaWrobis pirobebs da aferxebs realuri mSp-s zrads.
6. modelSi dadasturde monetaruli impulsis Semdeg realur mSp-ze 6 Tviani lagiT moqmedebis
Prepared by:
garemoeba;

A Tour of
The World
CHAPTER 11
fiskaluri politikia
CHAPTER
Prepared by:

rikardos eqvivalenturobis Teoria
A Tour of
The World
erTmaneTisagan ar gansxvavdeba ekonomikaze gadasaxadebis cvlilebis da

xarjebis cvlilebis efeqti.
 rikardos eqvivalenturobis Teoria Sesasruleblad tradiciulad unda dakmayofildes

Semdegi pirobebi:
CHAPTER 11
CHAPTER
1. momavlis srulyofilad ganWvretis SesaZlebloba;
2. likvidurobis SezRudvis ar arseboba;
3. usasrulo sasicocxlo cikli;
4. ekonomikuri agentebi racionalurad moqmedeben;
Prepared by:

saxelmwifo xarjebis egzogenuri zrda
(klasikuri varianti)
fiskaluri zemoqmedebis obieqtia – Sromis bazari;
A Tour of

 saxelmwifo xarjebis zrda gavlenas

o The
ar axdens sawarmoo funqciaze da Sromis zRvrulWorld
produqtze, maSasadame Sromaze
moTxovnisaze;
o Sromis miwodebaze.
 gadasaxadebi zegavlenas axdens danazogebze: s  s (t ).
CHAPTER 11
ekonomikuri zrdis sabaziso gantoleba:
CHAPTER

dk  st f ( k ) st maSin
0 dk / dt  0
k  s( t ) f ( k )  nk   Tu
dt sf k  n
k  kapital aRWurvis donea, f (k )  moculoba erT muSaxelze, mosaxleobis zrdis
warmoebis
n  tempi, gadasaxadis ganakveTi. t
 gadasaxadebis zrda iwvevs danazogebis da kapitalSeiaraRebis mdgradi donis
Prepared by:
Semcirebas, rac niSnavs, rom izrdeba Semosavali kapitalze da mcirdeba xelfasebi.

y A Tour c of
gadasaxadebis gareSe
The
nk
sf (k )World
sf (k ) GR
gadasaxadebis
CHAPTER 11
dawesebis Semdeg
CHAPTER
k2 * k1 *
k k
k2 * k**
 gadasaxadebis zrdis SesaZlo Sedegi:
 Tu ekonomika kapitalSeiaraRebis òqros wesiT~ gansazRvruli doneze maRla mdebareobs,
maSin moxmarebis donis zrdaa da danazogebis Semcireba. maSasadame Zlieria
Canacvlebis efeqti.
Prepared by:
 Tu ekonomika kapitalSeiaraRebis òqros wesiT~ gansazRvruli doneze dabla mdebareobs,
maSin, moxmarebis donis da danazogebis donis Semcireba. maSasadame Zlieria
Semosavlis efeqti.
r FE1 FE2
A Tour
P of LRAS 1
LRAS2
The World
LM2
LM1
r3
r2
P2 SRAS2
r1 IS2 P1 SRAS1
CHAPTER 11
AD2
IS1
CHAPTER
AD1
Y1 Y3 Y2 Y Y1 Y3 Y2 Y
 fiskaluri politikis gamoyenebis problemebi:
 xelfasebi swrafad egueba axal saerTo ekonomikur wonasworobas da amcirebs fiskaluri
politikis zemoqmedebis masStabs;
 mcirdeba adamianTa keTildReoba;
 fiskaluri politikis
Prepared by: ganxorcieleba dakavSirebulia droiT lagTan;
 momavalSi ekonomikuri
Fernando Quijano and Yvonnkoniunqturis
Quijano prognozirebis problema;
 fiskaluri politikis zegavlenis xarisxis Sefasebis problema;
saxelmwifo vali
sagareo da saSinao vali;

A Tour of

 saSinao vali iwvevs kapitalis maragebis Semcirebas, momavali Taobebi

The icxovreben.
Semcirebuli kapitali maragebis pirobebSi World
K  B - sasesxo kapitalis bazarze klasikuri
s( f ( k )  g  rb  T )  B
k  s( t ) f ( k )  nk
L
 k  sf (k )  nk  sg  srb sT 
wonasworobis modeli
L
CHAPTER 11

CHAPTER
b B ( r  n )b  g  T
  g  rb  T b  0
t L
dk n(1  s )

k  sf ( k )  nk  nb(1 s )
db sf  n
Prepared by:
 erTi erTeuliT valis zrda amcirebs kapitalis moculobas erTi erTeuliT, Tuki kapitalis maragebi
òqros wesiT~ gansazRvrul doneze imyofeba.

saxelmwifo vali
A Tour of
y The World
nk  nb (1  s )
C1 C
nk
sf (k )
CHAPTER 11
C2
CHAPTER
k1 *
k
k2 * k*
CPrepared
1 - likalurad
by: stabiluri wertili;
CFernando
2 - likalurad aramdgradi
Quijano and Yvonnwertili;
Quijano

keinzinuri midgoma
A Tour of
 efeqturi moTxovnis hipoTeza
 “ZiriTadi fsiqolofiuri kanoni”
The World
1. saxelmwifo xarjebis multiplikatori:
CHAPTER 11
Y  G /(1  MPC )
CHAPTER
2. gadasaxadebis multiplikatori:
Y  (  MPC /(1  MPC )) T

Prepared by:

saqarTvelos fiskaluri politika
(2002-2008 wlebi)
A Tour
 saxelmwifo xarjebisa da gadasaxadebis of
wili mSp-Si
The World
CHAPTER 11
CHAPTER
Prepared by:

(2002-2008 wlebi)
 saxelmwifo vali A Tour of
The World
CHAPTER 11
CHAPTER
Prepared by:

(2002-2008 wlebi)
A Tour
 saxelmwifo biujetis dafinansebis struqrura of WrilSi, procentebSi
funqcionalur
The World
CHAPTER 11
CHAPTER
Prepared by:

ekonomikuri politikis formirebis problemebi
A Tour of Sedegebi
qcevis motivebi
TheamomrCeveli
World
 “porTfeluri garigebis problema”
“racionaluri uvicoba”
“Sualeduri amomrCeveli”
 “ekonomikuri adamianis”
CHAPTER 11
koncefcia xmis micemis paradoqsi
interesTa  deputatebi
politika, rogorc gacvla
jgufrbi
CHAPTER
xelisuflebis fiasko
meTodologiuri individualizmi lobizmi

logrolingi politikur-ekonomikuri cikli
biurokratia
politikuri renta
Prepared by:

biurikratiis modeli
A Tour
biurokratis sageblianobis funqcia of
WThe World
 xelfasi
U   1W 1 P  1 P  arafuladi sargebeli
Q  sazogadoebrivi dovlaTi
W   2 Q  2 ( B  C ) 2 B  biuros biujeti
P   3Q  3 ( B  C )  3 C  biuros xarji
CHAPTER 11
( B  C )  “diskretuli biujeti”

CHAPTER
U   Q  ( B  C )   1 21 31 ,   1 2   3 1 ,   1 2   1 3 ;
B (Q )  aQ  bQ 2
Tu  B  C  ( a  c )Q  ( b  d )Q 2 
C (Q )  cQ  dQ 2
Prepared by:

biurikratiis modeli
biurokratis sargeblis maqsimizaciis piroba:

A Tour of   a c

U  Q ((a  c)Q  (b  d )Q )  Q 
2 
The World   2 bd
 roca biurokratis mier sazogadoebrivi dovlaTis gamoSveba ar cvlis arc mis Semosavals da
arc mis arafulad sargebels:  0
Q min  1 / 2 ( a  c ) /( b  d )
 roca biurokratis mier sazogadoebrivi dovlaTis gamoSvebisas ar SeuZlia miiTvisos
CHAPTER 11
diskreciuli biujeti arc Semosavlis da arc sxva arafuladi sargeblis saxiT:
 0
CHAPTER
Qmax  ( a  c ) /( b  d )
B,C B,C
C(G)
Y (G )  C (G )  max  G m
C(Q)
B(Q) Y (G )  C ( G )  0  G B
Prepared by:
Fernando Quijano and Yvonn Quijano Y(G)
Qmin Qmax Q Gm Gopt GB G
gamoyenebuli literatura
1. ananiaSvili i., aCelaSvili k., mesxia i., papava v., silagaZe a., wereTeli g. 1. НОРТ Д. Институты,институциональные изменения и
A Tour of
makroekonomikuri regulirebis meTodebi da modelebi. Tb. 2003. функционирование экономики. М.,1997.
2. papava v., postkomunisturi gardamavali periodis makroekonomika. Tb. 2. Нуреев Р.М. Основи экономическоо теорий. Вопрхы экономики
Tsu 2007. №7 1996 .
3. qistauri S. inflacia. Tb. 2000.
4. xaduri n. ekonomikuri politikis formirebis Taviseburebani
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