Risk Analysis and

Management
 Risk – The probability that a hazard will result in a specified level
of loss
LIKELIHOOD
The likelihood is the chance that the hazardous event will
occur
 CONSEQUENCE
Consequence is the outcome of the hazardous event
RISK MEASUREMENT

Risk = Likelihood x Consequence

Risk Management- The systematic application of management
policies, procedures, and practices to the tasks of analyzing,
assessing, and controlling risk in order to protect employees, the
general public, and the environment, as well as company assets,
while avoiding business interruptions.
Acceptable Risk: Risk that has been reduced to a level that can be
tolerated by the organization having regard to its legal obligations
and its own HSE policy.
Risk analysis is the estimation of the risk associated with the
identified hazards, linking the likelihood of occurrence and severity
of harms.
Risk evaluation compares the identified and analyzed risk against
given risk criteria.
Risk communication is the sharing of information about risk and
risk management between the decision makers and others.
Communications might include those among interested parties (e.g.,
regulators and industry; industry and the patient; within a company,
industry, or regulatory authority).

Risk control includes decision making to reduce and/or accept risks.

The purpose of risk control is to reduce the risk to an acceptable
level.

Risk assessment consists of the identification of hazards and the

analysis and evaluation of risks associated with exposure to those
hazards
Safety Audit:. “A safety audit subjects every area of organization’s
activity to a systematic Critical examination to reveal the strengths
and weaknesses and the areas of vulnerability”.  One of the first
systematic methods of hazard identification used in the chemical
industry was the safety audit
Safety Survey: It is a detailed examination a narrow field such as
specific procedures or a particular plant.
Safety inspection: Which is a scheduled inspection of a unit carried
out by the units own personnel. Eg. Crane inspection
Safety Tour: It is unscheduled tour carried out by an outsider such as
works manager or a safety representative.
 5 STEPS OF RISK ASSESSMENT

Step 1: Identify the hazards

Step 2: Decide who might be harmed and how
Step 3: Evaluate the risks and decide on precautions
Step 4: Record your findings and implement them
Step 5: Review your risk assessment and update if necessary
HAZID
HAZID

HAZAN
HAZID- Hazard Identification
Hazid is a high level hazard identification technique which is
commonly applied on an area by area basis to hazardous
installations. Hazid study is the systematic method of identifying
hazards to prevent and reduce any adverse impact that could
cause injury to personnel, damage or loss of property,
environment and production, or become a liability. It is a
component of the risk assessment and risk management..

HAZAN- Hazard Analysis

Hazan is the identification of undesired events that lead to the
materialization of a hazard, the analysis of the mechanisms by
which these undesired events could occur, and, usually, the
estimation of the consequences
 BOW TIE ANALYSIS
By linking ‘Hazards’ & ‘Consequences’ to an ‘Event’ it is possible to develop the
relationship to include the causes, or ‘Threats’, and the ‘Prevention’ & ‘Recovery
Measures
There is only an event when humans come into contact with a hazard.
But there are many ways this contact can be prevented. Organisational barriers such as
permits and Safe working procedures and standards.
Leaders and supervisors who provide guidance and ensure procedures are followed
The problem is that none of these barriers is 100 percent safe, all of them have holes
– big or small
The holes all line up and at this point there is an event sometimes causing an injury.
However as long as one barrier is working effectively, even when the others fail an
individual will be protected (it will be a near miss)
SWISS CHESSE MODEL
 Third Party Risk (TPR)

• Around 80 per cent of jet aircraft accidents occur

during take-off and landing. People on the
ground near the ends of airport runways are,
therefore, at a heightened risk of death or
serious injury. In general, these people are there
for reasons unrelated to aviation – they may live
there, work there or are passing through - and
the risk is, therefore, known as Third Party Risk
(TPR)
Voluntary and involuntary risk
 Individual and Group/Societal risk

• Societal risk measures the risk to a group of people. It is an

estimation of risk in term of both the potential size and
likelihood of incidents with multiple consequences.
• The risk can be represented by Frequency-Number (F-N)
Curve.

• Individual risk is defined formally (by Institution of Chemical

Engineering, UK) as the frequency at which an individual may
be expected to sustain a given level of harm from the
realization of specified hazards. It is usually taken to be the
risk of death, and usually expressed as a risk per year.
• The term ‘individual’ may be a member of a certain group of
workers on a facility, or a member of the public, or anything
as defined by the QRA
 QRA- Quantitative Risk Assessment
• QRA may defined as Pre-creation of Chemical
Disasters in the computer before they are
caused and determining their causes,
frequencies of occurrence, damage
consequences to Life and Property and enable
us to firstly prevent disasters and secondly to
control and contain the consequences
QRA determines the following:
• Frequency of occurrence of MCLS/MCAS,
• PROBITS-% Damage consequences to Life and
Property,
• Fatality Accident rate (FAR) -Risk of Fatality to
employees,
• ISO-Risk or Individual Risk-Risk of Fatality to
neighboring population,
• FN-Relation-Relation between Frequency (F) and
Fatality Number (N),
• Acceptability of Risk through ALARP-As Low as
Reasonable Practical
 Terminologies Of QRA
RISK
Has two components:
• Frequency of an accident,
• Damage consequences to life and property

FAR: Fatality Accident Rate is the Risk of Fatality of

employees over an exposure period of normal work
period,

FN-Relation: Is the relation between Frequency (F)

of occurrence of accidents to Fatality Number (N),
 Terminologies Of QRA
ISO-Risk: Is the Risk to neighboring population,

PROBIT: Is Probability Unit is a Mathematical system of

determining % Fatality and Injury for a given exposure to
any form of energy released in an accident.

• MCAS: Maximum Credible Accident Scenario or MCLS:

Maximum Credible Loss Scenario- Worst possible
scenario from one facility, “Maximum credible” means
“worst possible” the term credible means failure of
one equipment or Facility at a time. Incredible is a
credible scenario leading to domino effects spreading
disaster to other areas.
FATALITY ACCIDENT RATE (FAR)
• FAR, short for Fatality Accident Rate, is the risk of
fatality of an individual exposed to a given hazard
for a period of 10^8 hours of exposure. which
comes to about 11,000 years
• Unit is deaths/10^8 hrs. of Exposure
• Approximately equivalent to the period 1000
people are likely to be exposed to work hazard
during an active work life of 40 years of 300 work
days covering a single shift of 8-hours
(1000x300x8x40=0.96x108 »10^8).
 FATALITY ACCIDENT RATE (FAR)

• Fi is the frequency of the i th accident,

• Ni number fatal in the i th accident
• H is the number of hours per year worked and
• N the total number of persons exposed over all the
accidents

Before computing the absolute number of persons exposed

and fatal, the modeling is done by assuming a hypothetical
population density of one per square meter
• Note there are5-Zones-
Red, Orange, Blue, Dark
Green and Light Green.
The acceptability of Risk in
each zone is given.
• 1. Red region is intolerable
to Plant Personnel.
• 2. Orange is acceptable to
Plant Personnel.
• 3. Blue is intolerable to
Public and Chemical
Industry avrerage.
• 4. Dark Green is Maximum
tolerable to Public.
• 5. Light Green is Minimum
Tolerable to Public.
• The risk to life is calculated as “Individual risk” and
“Group risk or Societal risk”.
• Individual Risk: It is represented by iso-risk
contours and FAR, which show the geographical
distribution of risk to an individual. It is assumed
that the individual is continuously present at that
location, out of doors and does not shelter or try
to escape.
• Group risk: it is represented by FN curves, which
show the cumulative frequency distribution of
accidents causing different numbers of fatalities.
FN Curve
• You will notice that Frequency (F) is on Y-Axis and
Fatality Number (N) is on X-Axis. There are 4-
diagonal lines in Red, Orange Green and Dark
Green forming 5-zones of acceptability of FNpoints.
• Top zone above Red is intolerable zone.
• Between Red and Orange lines is Unjustifiable .Risk
and needs reduction.
• Between Orange and Green is Acceptable Risk.
Between Green and Dark Green is Negligible Risk
and below Dark Green Very low Risk.
 Hypothetical assumption
• During the analysis to estimate societal risk,
various hypothetical events will have been
assessed. Each of these events will have a
predicted frequency of occurrence, f, and a
predicted number of persons harmed, N.
 Mathematics of the F-N Curve

• Societal risk results are most effectively presented in graphical

form. Such plots are normally log-log plots with the xaxis
representing the consequences and the y-axis representing the
frequency of occurrence. Log-log scales are used because the
range of values for f and N can span multiple orders of magnitude.
• Societal risks may be plotted in either of two fashions:
• Non-cumulative frequency basis. For these graphs, called f-N
curves, the value plotted on the y-axis is the discrete frequency of
experiencing exactly N fatalities.
• Cumulative freauencv basis. For these graphs, called F-N curves,
the value plotted on the y-axis is the cumulative frequency of
experiencing N or more fatalities
 ISO-RISK ZONES OR CONTOURS :
• ISO-Curves represent the limits of specified individual
fatality risk in terms of fatality per year.
• Individual Risk or ISO-Risk are Plots of Equal Fatality
distances from Source.
• Probability of fatality per year to an individual located
on the spot 24 hours per day/365 days per year
• The various levels of risk computed are normally of
the order of 10^-4, 10^-5, 10^-6 and so on per year.
• The ISO Contours are developed based on the effect
of wind velocity distribution in various orientations
and terrain influence on the zone of a given
individual risk of fatality.
• Note, some curves are perfectly circular while
others are deformed curves. The perfect
circles are for Fires and explosions that are
not affected by wind while the dispersions are
affected by wind and wind prevalence being
different in different orientations, the
dispersion ISO-Risk counters get deformed. In
the directions of wind the Risk distance is less.
 ALARP
• ALARP is short for “ As Low as Reasonably
Practicable”. This is an UK Model from Health
and Safety Executive ( for acceptability of Risk
to Employees and neighboring population
ALARP
• Note there are5-Zones-
Red, Orange, Blue, Dark
Green and Light Green.
The acceptability of Risk in
each zone is given.
• 1. Red region is intolerable
to Plant Personnel.
• 2. Yellow is acceptable to
Plant Personnel.
• 3. Blue is intolerable to
Public.
• 4. Dark Green is Maximum
tolerable to Public.
• 5. Light Green is Minimum
Tolerable to Public.
 Scenario development
A scenario is a verbal description of a potential
disaster
Primary release scenario: describing the nature of
primary release or containment loss scenario.
Secondary effects of any primary release: leading to
fire, explosion, toxic gas , dispersion etc.
Tertiary Scenarios: Disaster Consequences of Fatality
and injuries and Property damages.
Quaternary Scenarios: Legal proceedings after a
Disaster. These are not examined in Technical QRA
Thus QRA requires all the scenarios to be computer
modeled or simulated as well as chances of
1. immediate ignition,
2. delayed onsite and
3. Delayed offsite ignitions and
4. no-ignition chances
 Definition of Discharge
• Discharge is the time and distance it takes the material to go from the storage pressure to
atmospheric pressure.

Exit Temperature
Exit Pressure
Liquid Fraction
Orifice Velocity P = Patm
Mass Release Rate

Final Temperature
Atmospheric
Pressure
Final Velocity

Orifice P = P1

Discharge Dispersion

47
 Atmospheric dispersion modeling
• Atmospheric dispersion modeling is the
mathematical simulation of how air pollutants
disperse in the ambient atmosphere. It is
performed with computer programs that solve
the mathematical equations and algorithms
which simulate the pollutant dispersion.
• Typically, the dispersion calculations provide an
estimate of the geographical area affected and
the average vapour concentrations expected
• Two types of dispersion models are usutilly
considered:
• a) Positively buoyant or neutrally buoyant, and
• b) Negatively buoyant or dense gas.
• The dispersion of gases that are lighter than or
equal to the density of dispersing medium are
considered as positively buoyant and the gases
with higher density at the point of dispersion is
considered as negatively buoyant or dense gas.
 Toxic Release and Dispersion Models
• During an accident, process equipment can release toxic
materials quickly and in significant enough quantities to
spread in dangerous clouds throughout a plant site and the
local community.
A few examples are
• Explosive rupture of a process vessel as a result of excessive
pressure caused by a runaway reaction,
• Rupture of a pipeline containing toxic materials at high
pressure,
• Rupture of a tank containing toxic material stored above its
atmospheric boiling point
• Rupture of a train or truck transportation tank following
an accident.
 Dispersion models
1. Plume model
2. Puff model
3. Spills
 Plume model
• The plume model describes the steady-state concentration
of material released from a continuous source.
• In an emergency if there is a leak in a large tank then a
plume can develop.
• Plumes can cause FIRES AND EXPLOSIONS as secondary
scenarios.

Example
Continuous release of gases from a smokestack.
Plume model
 Puff model
• The puff model describes the instantaneous release of material
• Often in accidents, the releases are essentially instantaneous
and no plume develops. Puffs can give rise to FIRE BALLS and
vapour cloud explosions(VCE). A special case of vapour cloud
explosion is the Boiling Liquid Evaporating Vapour Explosion
(BLEVE).

Example
Sudden release of gas due to rupture of a storage vessel.
Puff model
• SPILLS : Spills are liquid pools created by
leaking liquid chemicals. Spills cause
evaporation and dispersal of toxic gases and if
the spilled liquid is flammable, then it can
catch fire creating a pool fire also the vapours
can cause explosion.
 Parameters affecting atmospheric dispersion of toxic materials:

• Wind speed,
• Atmospheric stability,
• ground conditions (buildings, water, trees),
• height of the release above ground level,
• momentum and buoyancy of the initial
material released.
 Wind speed
As the wind speed increases, the plume
becomes longer and narrower; the substance is
carried downwind faster but is diluted faster by a
larger quantity of air.
 Atmospheric stability
• Atmospheric stability relates to vertical mixing of
the air. During the day, the air temperature
decreases rapidly with height, encouraging vertical
motions. At night the temperature decrease is
less, resulting in less vertical motion
 Ground conditions
• Ground conditions affect the mechanical mixing
at the surface and the wind profile with height.
Trees and buildings increase mixing, whereas
lakes and open areas decrease it.
Increased release height decrease the ground
contamination
 Height of the release above ground level

The release height significantly affects ground level

concentrations. As the release height increases,
ground-level concentrations are reduced because
the plume must disperse a greater distance
vertically
 For high density gas
• The momentum of a high-velocity jet will carry
the gas higher than the point of release,
resulting in a much higher effective release
height. If the gas has a density less than air,
the released gas will initially be positively
buoyant and will lift upward. If the gas has a
density greater than air, then the released gas
will initially be negatively buoyant and will
slump toward the ground
 Release Mitigation

• Early Vapor Detection • Emergency Response

– Sensors – On-site communications
– Personnel – Emergency shutdown
– Site evacuation
• Countermeasures
– Safe havens
– Water sprays and – PPE
curtains – Medical treatment
– Steam or air curtains – On-site emergency
– Deliberate ignition plans, procedures,
– Foams training & drills
 WHAT IS AN ISOPLETH AND ISOEVELET
• Isopleths are useful in understanding
concentrations of Hazardous gases in dispersion at a
given horizontal plane at a given height say 1 m
which is the average breathing nose height of
persons.
• Isoelevets at the given Y-Coordinate distance enable
us to know the concentrations at different heights
and useful in understanding Toxic and fire/explosion
concentrations at various heights
• The Isopleth simulation results give the
concentrations along downwind X-Distance at
the Height of Simulation. The concentrations are
needed normally at the breathing height of
persons on the ground as these persons breath
the gas at concentrations there.
• So the Height of simulation is by default kept as 1
m which is the average height of nose of persons.
For children near a School, you can use 0.5 m.
ISOPLETH AND ISOEVELET
TEEL (Temporary Emergency Exposure Limit)
• What are TEEL values? TEEL stands for Temporary
Emergency Exposure Limits.
• Earlier we were using STEL, MAC, TWA etc. These
are for Work place exposures and not Emergency
Exposures.
• Work Place exposures are for 8-hour duration
whereas Emergencies are only for about 15-mins
to an Hour. So new Exposure Levels for various
gases were first developed in USA and now being
adopted in India. HAMSAGARS were the first in
India to introduce TEEL values for Dispersion
modeling.
• Expressed as ppm or mg/m3
TEEL-0 The threshold concentration below which most
people will experience no appreciable risk of health
effects.

TEEL-1 is the airborne concentration (expressed as

ppm [parts per million] or mg/m3 [milligrams per cubic
meter]) of a substance above which it is predicted that
the general population, including susceptible
individuals, when exposed for more than one hour,
could experience notable discomfort, irritation, or
certain asymptomatic, nonsensory effects. However,
these effects are not disabling and are transient and
reversible upon cessation of exposure. 
TEEL-2 is the airborne concentration (expressed as ppm or mg/m3) of a
substance above which it is predicted that the general population,
including susceptible individuals, when exposed for more than one
hour, could experience irreversible or other serious, long-lasting,
adverse health effects or an impaired ability to escape. 

TEEL-3 is the airborne concentration (expressed as ppm or mg/m3) of a

substance above which it is predicted that the general population,
including susceptible individuals, when exposed for more than one
hour, could experience life-threatening adverse health effects or death.
 HAZARD WARNING
• Safety Signs and Symbols
There are five types of safety signs -
• Prohibitory
• Warning
• Mandatory
• Safe condition
• Fire safety
Prohibatory sign

Warning sign

Mandatory sign

Safety sign
Shapes Meaning Colour Examples of use
Circle with prohibition Hot Red -no smoking
diagonal white -do not touch
bar
Circle Mandatory Blue -wear eye protection
  white -wear hand protection
Equilateral Warning Yellow -warning hot surface
triangle black -warning electricity

Square Safe Green -first aid

condition white -emergency exit
Square Fire safety Red white -collection of firefighting
equipment’s
-fire extinguisher, Fire point,
Dry riser
 Warning signs
• Warning symbols are mainly graphic images
which identify a dangerous object or place
• Usually in an equilateral triangle
High Voltage
Explosive
Corrosive
Radiation Hazard
BIO HAZARD
Flammable
Toxic HAZARD
Laser Hazard
Non Ionizing radiation
Radiation level very high
Oxidising agent
Hot surface
Battery hazard
Irritant
Electricity hazard
High temperature
Free hazard
Falling objects
Rotating cutter
Slippery
Magnetic hazard
Electrocution
Overhead load
Environment hazard
Arc flash warning signs
 Arc Flash
An arc flash is the light and heat produced from
an electric arc supplied with sufficient electrical
energy to cause substantial damage, harm, fire,
or injury
One of the most common examples of an arc
flash occurs when an incandescent light bulb
 burns out. 
 Prohibitory signs
Prohibition sign is a circle with a diagonal line
through it, surrounding a pictogram used to
indicate something is not permitted. The no
symbol is generally colored red
Lightning matchstick prohibited
Water as extinguishing medium prohibited
Mandatory sign
• White symbols on a blue background
• Tells us what must be done
 Safe Condition Sign
• Safe condition signs are used to indicate
escape routes,emergency exits
Difference between all three ?