Facts and Effects of Climate Change, Adaptation

Oscar C. Tabada
PAGASA Visayas

Empowering Climate Change Adaptability-Disaster Risk Reduction Club – Advisers

Guide
Conference Hall, 4th Floor, Department of Education, Cebu City Division, Day-as, Cebu City
June 29, 2017

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) Department

of Science and Technology (DOST)
 PHILIPPINE PAGASA as the
National Meteorological
ATMOSPHERIC, and Hydrological
GEOPHYSICAL & Services (NMHS) of the
ASTRONOMICAL Philippines is the
“authoritative” voice
SERVICES in providing the warning
ADMINISTRATION for public safety

The Philippines, through the PAGASA, is a Member of the

World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a
specialized body of the United Nations

PAGASA Payong
The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA
 OUR MISSION

Protect lives and properties through

timely, accurate and reliable
weather-related information and
services

PAGASA Payong
The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA
MODEL ANALYSES AND FORECAST

PAGASA VISAYAS
29 June 2017

“tracking the sky…helping the country”

WHAT LIES AHEAD . . .
OF US
Oscar C. Tabada
PAGASA Visayas

Climate Information Monitoring and Prediction Center (CLIMPC)

Climatology & Agrometeorology Branch (CAB)
PAGASA-DOST
Monsoon Trough affecting Southern Luzon.

4 AM UPDATE July 29, 2017 Thursday

HIMAWARI-8 Thu July 29, 2017
Daily Rainfall forecast for

June 29 – July 4, 2017

8Am Thu June 29, 2017
8Pm Thu June 29, 2017
8Am Fri June 30, 2017
8Pm Fri June 30, 2017
8Am Sat July 1, 2017
8Pm Sat July 2, 2017
8Am Sun July 2, 2017
8Pm Sun July 2, 2017
8Am Mon July 3, 2017
8Pm Mon July 3, 2017
8Am Tue July 4, 2017
8Pm Tue July 4, 2017
 WHAT TO EXPECT WITHIN THIS WEEK

• Metro Cebu & Province, cloudy, sunny periods with light to

moderate rains/TSTM today up to Wednesday next week. Winds light
and variable. Coastal waters slight to moderate. Range of Temp. 25–
32’C (Heat Index: 38’C)

• Tagbilaran City, sunny then cloudy with light to moderate

rains/TSTM in afternoon or evening today up to Wednesday. Winds of
10-15kph from the South-Southwest will prevail. Coastal waters slight to
moderate. Range of Temp. 26–31’C (Heat Index: 35’C)

• Dumaguete, Rest of Neg. Oriental, Siquijor, sunny

then cloudy with light to moderate rains/TSTM in afternoon or evening
today up to Wednesday. Winds light and variable. Coastal waters
slight to moderate. Range of Temp. 25–32’C (Heat Index: 38’C).
 Why the frequent floods,
and how to prevent them?

Why does it flood so easily

these days?
Danao-Carmen, Cebu Floodings (April 15, 2017)
Due to LPA (formerly TD CRISING)
Nov. 16, 2014 Jeddah, Saudi Floodings
November 17, 2015: Jeddah, Saudi Arabia Floodings
Dec. 13, 2013: SNOW In Egypt for the First Time In 112 Years
Jan. 28, 2016: Nobody panic, but it's snowing in Saudi!
• Global warming refers to the gradual increase of the
Earth’s temperature because of energy trapped by the
Earth’s atmosphere
• The retention of the heat by the
atmosphere is called the greenhouse
effect.
TEMPERATURE ASSESSMENT

PHILIPPINES' MEAN TEMPERATURE

TEN WARMEST YEARS RANK ANOMALY ( °C)
2013 1 0.96
1998 2 0.87
2012 3 0.86
2015 4 0.82
2010 5 0.67
2014 6 0.61
2006 7 0.50
2007 8 0.48
2001 9 0.38
1987 10 0.36

PERIOD: 1951-2015
DEPARTURES FROM 1971-2000 NORMAL
 Increased average summer temperature
2020
0.9 to 1.1 oC
Increased Heat stress

Increased incidence of
2050 vector-borne
diseases
1.9 to 2.2 oC
Risks to biodiversity

2100 Heat related deaths

0.9 to 1.1 ºC 1.9 to 2.2 ºC 2.6 to 3.4 ºC 2.6 to 3.4 oC Risk to Food Security

Projected Temperature
Increase for the
Philippines
Medium emissions

10
Key findings: Temperature
What do we expect to
happen in the future?
What has changed? Further increases in mean
temperature:
• In the past 65 years
• In the mid-21st century, the
• Mean temperature has temperature is projected to be
increased by 0.68 C warmer likely be in the range of
• The minimum 0.9- 1.9 C (RCP4.5)
temperature has 1.2- 2.3 C (RCP8.5)
increased by 0.99C
• Further warming towards the
while maximum
end of the 21st century:
temperature has slightly
increased by 0.24C 1.3- 2.5 C (RCP4.5)
• Hot days were more 2.5- 4.1C (RCP8.5)
frequent while the cold
days less frequent
 COMPARATIVE TEMPERATURE VALUES OBSERVED
CEBU PAGASA COMPLEX STATION
(Actual VS Normal)
Month/ ACTUAL NORMAL ACTUAL NORMAL ACTUAL NORMAL
Year Maximum Mean Max Minimum Mean Min Mean Mean
Temp (°C) Temp (°C) Temp (°C) Temp (°C) Temp (°C) Temp (°C)

Jan 2017 31.8 29.7 23.4 24.0 27.6 26.8

Feb 2017 32.0 30.2 22.9 24.0 27.5 27.1

March 2017 32.9 31.0 23.2 24.5 28.1 27.7

April 2017 33.3 32.1 23.8 25.4 28.6 28.8

May 2017 34.5 32.8 23.5 25.3 29.0 28.6

June 2017 35.8 32.0 27.2 25.3 28.6

1st Factor. Climate change. The earth’s temperature is rising because
the heat emitted by the sun is trapped by greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide and other
gases) in the atmosphere. The higher temperature is melting the polar ice caps.
 CLIMATE
CHANGE IS
UPON US

HAVE TO ACKNOWLEDGE THAT CLIMATE

CHANGE IS HAPPENING, IS ACCELERATING,
 THE EARTH WILL
WARM EVEN
MORE
2-6°C
IN NEXT 100 YEARS
 Greenhouse Gases
“Greenhouse Effect”

CO2 Carbon dioxide

CH4 Methane

Atmosphere N2O Nitrous oxide

water vapor

Without greenhouse gases, the Earth’s surface is -15 oC warmer than it

otherwise would be. Without this natural greenhouse or blanket effect,
life as we know it would not be possible.

PAGASA Payong
The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA
While,Chloroflurocarbons is more than 20,000 higher
than CO2
•warmer
What’s wrong
with
temperatures?
 in

will effect
More intense and longer
droughts since 1970

Increase intensity of
tropical cyclone
activity since 1970.

Hot days, hot nights,

& heat waves
Direct Observations of have become
Recent Climate Change more frequent.

Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report:

ITS GETTING WARMER
And Wear Pajamas to bed
FACEBOOK
When Will We Feel Climate Change?
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With the ice caps melting, more water is poured into the oceans, thus
raising their levels. The seas invade low-lying areas. If the melting of the
ice does not stop, low-lying islands will disappear; the bigger ones will
have their areas reduced as the seas invade their shores.
Global Projections of future changes in Climate
FUTURE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Sea Level Rise Projections (2081-2100)

Warming Melting of
of oceans glaciers (15-
(accounts 35%) and ice
30-55%) sheets
Surface (accounts
melting
and
snowfall
0.26 to 0.55 m RCP 2.6
0.32 to 0.63 m RCP4.5

Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21 st century. The rate of SLR will
DOST-PAGASA
very likely exceed that observed during 1971-2010 due to increased ocean warming,
Theincreased
Weather and Climate Authority
loss of mass from glaciers and ice sheets.
 Pedersen Glacier (1920’s – 1940’s)

When photographed here sometime between the 1920s and the 1940s, Pedersen Glacier was
calving icebergs into the lake from a seracs-capped terminus that ranged from about 66 to 131
feet high. No vegetation is visible. (Kenai Fjords National Park)
 Pedersen Glacier 2005

The second photo dates was taken Aug. 10, 2005. Since the first photo, most of the lake has
filed with sediment and now supports grasses, shrubs and aquatic plants. The glacier's
terminus has retreated by more than a mile and no icebergs are visible. Isolated patches of
snow are present at a few higher elevation locations. (USGS/Bruce Molnia)
Now.
2005
AUGUST 2012
…compounds Sea Level Rise
Seas aren’t just rising, scientist say- its worse than that.
They’re speeding up of 3-5mm per year.
 Impact Timelines on Earth & RP
 Long-Term (2020 & beyond)
 In small island (states) : SLR worsen floods, storm surges
& coastal erosion w/c impacts island community well-
being
 2 degrees C hike will result in 1 m SLR or 1 km erosion:
20 RP provinces w/ 703 beach towns w/ 662 M sq. m
vulnerable
 Over long term, much larger SLRs would render
coastlines unrecognizable, creating whole new islands
 Both past & future anthropogenic GHG emissions will
contribute to warming & SLR for more than a millennium,
due to time scales required for removal from atmosphere
Source: Roger C. Birosel “Timeline: Frightening Future of Earth & RP” , 2007

Source: Office of the Governor, Environment and Eco-Cultural Tourism

Saltwater intrusion
Simulations

+ 4 Meters

+ 8 Meters

+ 12 Meters

Plan for the worst.

Hope for the best.
TACLOBAN CITY
TACLOBAN CITY
TACLOBAN CITY
TACLOBAN CITY
Cebu City, the Philippines
CEBU CITY
CEBU CITY
CEBU CITY
CEBU CITY
 PARTNERS FOR
RESILIENCE
Talacogon, Agusan del Sur: Agusan River basin
 PARTNERS FOR RESILIENCE

PfR Communities
These are flood simulations,
they are not forecasts.
At best, this might provide a very rough indicator
of areas that may be more vulnerable to
Sea level rise, Storm surge, Saltwater intrusion
or a combination thereof.

The timing and extent of climate change remains uncertain.

These have been generated merely to illustrate the level of potential risk
that parts of the Philippines may be exposed to, in order to allow better preparation.
THE NAUTICAL
HIGHWAY

All major seaports

will require some
re-engineering.
NEW AVIATION BACKBONE?
Lower Risk to Sea Levels / Storm Surge

Located beyond +6 Meter flood levels

Luzon
Tuguegarao City ( R2 )
Cauayan, Isabela ( R2 )
Baguio City ( CAR )
Angeles City ( R3 )
Lipa City ( R4 )
Naga City ( R5 )
Legaspi City ( R5 )

Visayas
Santa Barbara, Iloilo ( R6 )
Silay City ( R6 )

Mindanao
Cagayan de Oro City ( R10 )
Davao City ( R11 )
General Santos City ( R12 )
Jolo City ( ARMM )
The starting point

2 º
for WWF’s analysis was
the strong scientific consensus that
any human-induced warming
greater than two degrees Celsius
above pre-industrial levels
would have a dangerous
and highly damaging impact
on both human societies
and their economies
and the global environment
Celsius
as a whole.    
Warmer Oceans!
Increases in sea surfa
Decline in coastal eco
Changes in ocean circ
Accelerated coastal er
Decline in plankton bio
Decline in fish abunda
Decline in oxygen leve
Increased sea flooding
Changes in salinity
Saltwater intrusion
Acidification
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON FISHERIES

Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007| Hoegh-Guldberg et al

(2014).

DOST-PAGASA
The Weather and Climate Authority E.C. Godilano, Ph.D.
Increased Oceanic Acidity
Extinction of Species

(c) WWF-Canon / Martin HARVEY

- Philippine waters are within the path of migrating populations of whale
sharks and manta rays
- At least 22 species of Marine Mammals
 3000 Species of Fish in the Philippines Alone
We can’t afford to lose these treasures in our
Islands.
CORAL BLEACHING
Net positive growth may no longer be possible.
Mass Fish Death
According to the scientific research ordered by the U.N, 2048 is the year
of the global collapse of worldwide fisheries, which means no more fish
in the Oceans, which means the death of the Oceans, which means a
dead planet. 31 years to go, remain passive or get active it's up to you.
 Trend of CPUE ( Caught per unit effort)

Year
Trend of catch per unit effort since 1948 (Dalzell et al 1987) Silvestre and Pauly 1989; Dalzell and Corpuz 1990; BFAR 1997, Campos 2004)
96 Source: http://www.oneocean.org/flash/the_philippine_seas.html
 Status of fisheries in the Philippines
• While CPUE has been in a
steep decline, marine
capture fisheries landing
for both commercial and
municipal fishing increase
over time
• This can only be possible
by:
• Increasing fishing
effort
• Shifts in catch
composition from
more valued to less
valued fish

97 BAS 2001
Not so good news: Resources in decline
Resource/ Habitat Status Source

Corals Degraded state BFAR-NFRDI-PAWB.

2005. BINU
Seaweeds Unknown -do-
(except declining seed source) GTZ. 2009.
Seagrasses Heavily stressed BFAR-NFRDI-PAWB.
2005. BINU
Mangroves Degraded state -do-
Invertebrates Declining trend -do-
Demersal fishes Declining trend -do-
Small pelagic Declining trend -do-
fishes
Tunas Stable trend WCPFC. 2009
(except Bigeye tuna)
Sharks and rays Declining trend NPOA Sharks. 2009

Marine turtles Threatened BFAR-NFRDI-PAWB.

2005. BINU
Marine Threatened IUCN Red List. 2009
Mammals
2009
Decline of Forest Cover
WILL DIRECTLY THREATEN FOOD SECURITY, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE PHILIPPINES HAS ONE OF THE
HIGHEST POPULATION GROWTH
Intense heat waves. More wildfires and forest fires.
Damages to the ecosystem.
Illegal logging, Greedy loggers have ravaged our forests and most of our
mountains are now bald. Without trees, there are no roots to hold the soil together.
Thus, rainwater easily erodes the mountainsides, carrying the topsoil down to the
streams and rivers below.
 As the water flows down the waterways, it drops the silt it is carrying. Over the years,
this silt has made the waterways shallower so that they can hold less and less water.
They therefore easily overflow their banks.

Floodwaters are now brown, unlike before when they were clearer and cleaner. That is
because of the silt they are carrying. When the floods recede, they leave a thick layer of mud.
That is also the mud that they deposit at the bottom of the waterways.
Environment
1. Reforestation , Reforestation, Reforestation
Rapid Urbanization With the development of more housing
subdivisions on what were once rice fields, the construction of more office
buildings, shopping malls and residential condominiums in the cities.
Inadequate drainage system. The planners did not anticipate
the big volumes of water that would inundate the land. The drainage system, therefore,
cannot drain the rain and floodwaters fast enough.
The fifth factor is GARBAGE
specifically the bad habit of many
Filipinos to throw their trash
anywhere, and especially into
waterways.
Discipline
The solution?
Mitigation, Adaptation and Education
 Adaptation

Building resilience within communities, croplands, coral reefs and forests.

Even preparing to relocate.
 Mitigation

Reducing our individual impacts – our carbon footprint.

The Earth Hour Example:
How to promulgate a simple idea – then let it snowball.
Education

Spreading the word on just what to do. For WWF, this

means Project LIFE and ECOKIDS, intensive LGU capacity-
building plus PARE ni JUAN and Earth Hour.
MITIGATION
Enhancement
Water Security
of Carbon Stocks
Food Security
Renewable Energy from:
HydroEnhancement of Genetic Resources
Hydro-meteorological hazard mitigation
Green Industries and Eco-tourism
Solar
& Wind
P. S.
things to
remember…
Building Resilience always involves
taking some risks….
Resilience reduces the burden
placed on governments
Resilience requires
Creative Innovation
Resilience requires
Creative Innovation
Building
Resilience can
feel a bit like
this….

but when the

task is shared it
is realisable
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
 "In the end, we will conserve only
what we love, we will love only what
we understand, and we will
understand only what we are taught."
— Baba Dioum, Senegalese conservationist
VISAYAS PAGASA REGIONAL SERVICES DIVISION (VPRSD)
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

VISIT US AT OUR WEBSITE:

vprsd.pagasa.dost.gov.ph

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER
@dost_pagasa

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SEND US AN EMAIL
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CALL US
PAGASA Visayas
(032) 340-4143 or (032) 340-1868

Oscar C. Tabada Cellphone numbers:

09054266330 /09178396434 (globe)
09206224672 (Smart)
Plant/Grow moreTrees!!