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  • Impact of Coronavirus On GCC Economic Outlook

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    Gerard Arabian
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    The coronavirus pandemic will significantly impact the GCC economic outlook. Real GDP growth is projected to decline by 4.4% compared to pre-COVID projections of 2.6% growth. Both the hydrocarbon and non-hydrocarbon sectors are expected to experience slower growth. Fiscal balances across the GCC are expected to worsen, with fiscal deficits projected to increase to 10.3% of GDP compared to pre-COVID deficits of 4.1% of GDP. Political risks for GCC governments include potential public opposition, civil unrest, and threats to leadership as austerity measures are implemented in response to economic challenges posed by the pandemic.

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    COVID presentation-Economy

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    COVID presentation-Economy

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    The coronavirus pandemic will significantly impact the GCC economic outlook. Real GDP growth is projected to decline by 4.4% compared to pre-COVID projections of 2.6% growth. Both the hydrocarbon and non-hydrocarbon sectors are expected to experience slower growth. Fiscal balances across the GCC are expected to worsen, with fiscal deficits projected to increase to 10.3% of GDP compared to pre-COVID deficits of 4.1% of GDP. Political risks for GCC governments include potential public opposition, civil unrest, and threats to leadership as austerity measures are implemented in response to economic challenges posed by the pandemic.

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    15 views4 pages

    Impact of Coronavirus On GCC Economic Outlook

    Uploaded by

    Gerard Arabian
    The coronavirus pandemic will significantly impact the GCC economic outlook. Real GDP growth is projected to decline by 4.4% compared to pre-COVID projections of 2.6% growth. Both the hydrocarbon and non-hydrocarbon sectors are expected to experience slower growth. Fiscal balances across the GCC are expected to worsen, with fiscal deficits projected to increase to 10.3% of GDP compared to pre-COVID deficits of 4.1% of GDP. Political risks for GCC governments include potential public opposition, civil unrest, and threats to leadership as austerity measures are implemented in response to economic challenges posed by the pandemic.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    Download as pptx, pdf, or txt
    of 4

    IMPACT OF

    CORONAVIRUS
    ON GCC
    ECONOMIC
    OUTLOOK
    GCC GROWTH OUTLOOK
    GCC 2020 Selected Macroeconomic Indicators
    Post-COVID Pre-COVID Variation
    Nominal GDP (US$ billion) 1354.0 1662.0 -308.0
    Real GDP growth (% change) -4.4 2.6 -7.0
    Hydrocarbon sector growth (% change) -5.3 2.1 -7.4
    Non-hydrocarbon sector growth (% change) -3.8 2.9 -6.7
    Domestic demand (% change) -5.5 2.8 -8.3
    CPI (% change, average) 0.4 2.1 -1.7
    Trade balance (US$ billion) 147.0 271.0 -124
    Current Account (% of GDP) -2.5 3.5 -6.0
    Source: Institute of International Finance
    GCC FISCAL AND MONETARY
    POLICY
    GCC 2020 Selected Fiscal and Monetary Indicators
    Post-COVID Pre-COVID Variation
    Fiscal Sector
    Total Revenues (US$ billion) 400.8 532.0 -131.2
    Total Expenditures (US$ billion) 540.2 602.3 -62.1
    Fiscal Balance (US$ billion) -139.4 -70.3 -69.1
    Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -10.3 -4.1 -6.2
    Monetary Secto r
    Public Foreign Assets (US$ billion) 2569.9 2874.3 -304.4
    Avg Policy Rate (%) 1.1 3.0 -1.89
    Source: Institute of International Finance
    GCC POLITICAL RISK
    •Risk of distrust in governments as people face shortages of jobs

    •Risk of public opposition and civil unrest with the implementation of fiscal austerity
    measures especially in economically vulnerable nations

    •Risk of adverse impact on investor sentiment with the potential implementation of


    nationalistic economic policies

    •Threat to leadership amidst public uprising against reforms

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