ACTIVITY DURATION

ESTIMATING
 Input to Activity Duration
Estimating
• Activity list
• Constraints
• Assumption
• Resource requirements
• Resource requirements

The duration of each activity will

be significantly influenced the
resources assigned.
 Input to Activity Duration
Estimating
• Activity list
• Constraints
• Assumption
• Resource requirements
• Resource capabilities
• Resource capabilities

The duration of most activities will be

significantly influenced by the capabilities
of human and material resources assigned to
them.
 Input to Activity Duration
Estimating
• Activity list
• Constraints
• Assumption
• Resource requirements
• Resource capabilities
• Historical information
• Historical information
Historical information on the likely duration of
many categories of activities is often available
from one or more of he following sources

a.) Project files - one or more of the organizations

involved in the project may maintain records
previous project trails t ha t are detailed enough to
aid in developing duration estimates.
b.)Commercial duration estimating databases -
historical orientation in often available commercially.
These databases tend to be especially useful when
activity durations ate not driven by the actual work
content.

c.) Project team knowledge - the individual members

of the transit remember previous actual or estimates.
While such recollection may be useful, l they are
generally far less reliable than document results.
 Tools and Techniques for activity
Duration Estimating
• Expert Judgment
• Expert Judgment
Duration are often difficult to estimate
because of the number of factors which can
influence them. Expert judgment guided by
historical information should be used whenever
possible . If such expertise is not available, the
estimates are inherently uncertain and risky.
 Tools and Techniques for activity
Duration Estimating
• Expert Judgment
• Analogous estimating
• Analogous estimating
Also called top-down, mean using the
actual duration of the previous, similar activity as
the basis for estimating the duration of the future
activities. It is frequently used to estimate project
duration when there is a limited amount of
detailed information about the project. Analogous
estimating is a form of expert judgment.
 Analogous estimating is most reliable
when:

• the previous activities are similar in fact, and

not in appearance, and
• the individuals preparing the estimate have the
needed expertise
 Tools and Techniques for activity
Duration Estimating
• Expert Judgment
• Analogous estimating
• Simulation
• Simulation
- it involved calculating multiple duration with
duration with different sets of assumptions.

The two most common forms of simulation are:

1. Monte Carlo Analysis
2. Schedule Simulation
Monte Carlo Analysis
in which a distribution of probable results is
defined for each activity and used to calculate a
distribution of probable results for the total project.

For a specified model with defined variable parameters,

Monte Carlo simulation can be summarized by the
following algorithm:
 Generate Random
Numbers

Transform to Random
Variates

Use Random Variates in

the Model

Generate and Store Output

Continue

Analyze Output
Schedule Simulation
in which the project in network is used as the model of
the project. The results of a schedule simulation may used
to quantify the risk of various schedules alternatives,
different project strategies, different through the network,
or individual analysis. Schedule simulation should be
used on any large complex project since traditional
mathematical analysis such as the Critical Path Method
(CPM) and the Program Evaluation and Review
Techniques (PERT) do not account for path convergence
and thus tend to underestimate project duration.
 Output from Activity Duration
Estimation
• Activity duration estimates
• Activity duration estimates
are quantitative assessment of the likely number
of work period that will be required to complete
an activity. To avoid building inefficiency into the
plan usually no provision is made in the duration
estimate for overtime, extended work week,
strikes, late deliveries, authorization delays,
abnormal weather, and acts of God.
 Output from Activity Duration
Estimation
• Activity duration estimates
• Basis of estimates
• Basis of estimates
Assumptions made during development of
estimates must be documented. If available,
historical data for the different trades(productivity)
rates of the performing construction organization
derived from the past projects and accumulated
experience of the construction supervisor should
be included in the documentation.
 Output from Activity Duration
Estimation
• Activity duration estimates
• Basis of estimates
• Activity list updates
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