Decision Models

1
6.1
2 Introduction to Decision Analysis

 The field of decision analysis provides a framework

for making important decisions.
 Decision analysis allows us to select a decision from a
set of possible decision alternatives when uncertainties
regarding the future exist.
 The goal is to optimize the resulting payoff in terms of
a decision criterion.
6.1
3 Introduction to Decision Analysis

 Maximizing expected profit is a

common criterion when probabilities
can be assessed.

• Maximizing the decision maker’s utility

function is the mechanism used when risk
is factored into the decision making
process.
6.2
4 Payoff Table Analysis

 Payoff Tables

 Payoff table analysis can be applied when:

 There is a finite set of discrete decision alternatives.
 The outcome of a decision is a function of a single future event.
 In a Payoff table -
 The rows correspond to the possible decision alternatives.
 The columns correspond to the possible future events.
 Events (states of nature) are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive.
 The table entries are the payoffs.
TOM
5 BROWN INVESTMENT DECISION

 Tom Brown has inherited $1000.

 He has to decide how to invest the money for
one year.
 A broker has suggested five potential
investments.
 Gold
 Junk Bond
 Growth Stock
 Certificate of Deposit
 Stock Option Hedge
6 TOM BROWN

 The return on each investment depends on the (uncertain) market

behavior during the year.
 Tom would build a payoff table to help make the investment
decision
7 TOM BROWN - Solution

• Construct a payoff table.

 Select a decision making criterion, and apply it to the payoff table.

• Identify the optimal decision.

• Evaluate the solution. S1 S2 S3 S4 Criterion

D1 p11 p12 p13 p14 P1

D2 p21 p22 p23 P24 P2
D3 p31 p32 p33 p34 P3
 8 The Payoff Table

DJA is up more DJA is up DJA moves DJA is down DJA is down more
than1000 points [+300,+1000] within [-300, -800] than 800 points
[-300,+300]

Decision Define the states

States of nature.
of Nature
Alternatives Large Rise Small Rise No Change Small Fall Large Fall
Gold -100 100 200 300 0
Bond 250 The states
200 of nature150
are mutually
-100 -150
Stock 500 exclusive
250and collectively
100 exhaustive.
-200 -600
C/D account 60 60 60 60 60
Stock option 200 150 150 -200 -150
 9 The Payoff Table

Decision States of Nature

Alternatives Large Rise Small Rise No Change Small Fall Large Fall
Gold -100 100 200 300 0
Determine the
Bond 250 200 150 -100 -150
set of possible
Stock 500decision250 100 -200 -600
C/D account 60alternatives.
60 60 60 60
Stock option 200 150 150 -200 -150
 10 The Payoff Table

Decision States of Nature

Alternatives Large Rise Small Rise No Change Small Fall Large Fall
Gold -100 100 200 300 0
Bond 250 200 150 -100 -150
Stock 500 250 100 -200 -600
C/D account 60 60 60 60 60
Stock option 200 150 150 -200 -150

The stock option alternative is dominated by the

bond alternative
11 6.3 Decision Making Criteria

 Classifying decision-making criteria

 Decision making under certainty.

 The future state-of-nature is assumed known.
 Decision making under risk.
 There is some knowledge of the probability of the states of nature occurring.
 Decision making under uncertainty.
 There is no knowledge about the probability of the states of nature occurring.
 12 Decision Making Under
Uncertainty
 The decision criteria are based on the decision maker’s
attitude toward life.
 The criteria include the
 Maximin Criterion - pessimistic or conservative approach.
 Minimax Regret Criterion - pessimistic or conservative approach.
 Maximax Criterion - optimistic or aggressive approach.
 Principle of Insufficient Reasoning – no information about the
likelihood of the various states of nature.
13 Decision Making Under Uncertainty -
The Maximin Criterion
14 Decision Making Under Uncertainty -
The Maximin Criterion
 This criterion is based on the worst-case scenario.
 It fits both a pessimistic and a conservative decision
maker’s styles.

 A pessimistic decision maker believes that the worst possible result will always occur.
 A conservative decision maker wishes to ensure a guaranteed minimum possible payoff.
 TOM
15
BROWN - The Maximin Criterion

 To find an optimal decision

 Record the minimum payoff across all states of nature for
each decision.
 Identify the decision with the maximum “minimum payoff.”
Th
eo
TheTheMaximin
MaximinCriterion
p
Criterion tim Minimum
Minimum
Decisions
Decisions Large
LargeRise
Rise Small
Smallrise
rise NoNoChange
Change Small
aFall
l d Large
SmallFall LargeFall
Fall Payoff
Payoff
Gold -100 100 200 300 ec 0 -100
Gold -100 100 200 300 isio 0 -100
Bond
Bond 250
250 200
200 150
150 -100
-100 n-150
-150 -150
-150
Stock
Stock 500
500 250
250 100
100 -200
-200 -600
-600 -600
-600
C/D
C/Daccount
account 60
60 60
60 60
60 60
60 60
60 60
60
 16 The Maximin Criterion -
spreadsheet

=MAX(H4:H7)

=MIN(B4:F4)
Drag to H7
* FALSE is the range lookup argument in
the VLOOKUP function in cell B11 since the =VLOOKUP(MAX(H4:H7),H4:I7,2,FALSE
values in column H are not in ascending )
order
17 The Maximin Criterion -
spreadsheet

I4

Cell I4 (hidden)=A4
Drag to I7

To enable the spreadsheet to correctly identify the optimal

maximin decision in cell B11, the labels for cells A4 through
A7 are copied into cells I4 through I7 (note that column I in
the spreadsheet is hidden).
18 Decision Making Under Uncertainty -
The Minimax Regret Criterion
19 Decision Making Under Uncertainty -
The Minimax Regret Criterion

• The Minimax Regret Criterion

 This criterion fits both a pessimistic and a
conservative decision maker approach.
 The payoff table is based on “lost opportunity,”
or “regret.”
 The decision maker incurs regret by failing to
choose the “best” decision.
20 Decision Making Under Uncertainty -
The Minimax Regret Criterion
 The Minimax Regret Criterion
 To find an optimal decision, for each state of nature:
 Determine the best payoff over all decisions.

 Calculate the regret for each decision alternative as the difference between its payoff value
and this best payoff value.
 For each decision find the maximum regret over all states of nature.
 Select the decision alternative that has the minimum of these “maximum regrets.”
21 TOM BROWN – Regret Table

The
ThePayoff
PayoffTable
Table
Decision
Decision Large
Largerise
rise Small
Smallrise
rise No
Nochange
changeSmall
Smallfall
fall Large
Largefall
fall
Gold
Gold -100
-100 100
100
Investing in200
200 300
300 no 00
Stock generates
Bond
Bond 250
250 200
200 when150
regret 150 -100
the market exhibits -150
-100 -150
Stock
Stock 500
500 250
250 a100large rise-200
100 -200 -600
-600
C/D
C/D 60
60 60
60 60
60 60
60 60
60

The
TheRegret
RegretTable
Table
Decision
Decision Large
Largerise
riseSmall
Smallrise
riseNo
Nochange
changeSmall
Smallfall
fall Large
Largefall
fall
Gold
Gold 600
600 150
150 00 00 60
60
Bond 250 Let us
50 build the
50 Regret Table
400 210
Bond 250 50 50 400 210
Stock
Stock 00 00 100
100 500
500 660
660
C/D
C/D 440
440 190
190 140
140 240
240 00
 22 TOM BROWN – Regret Table

The
ThePayoff
PayoffTable
Table
Decision
Decision Large
Largerise
rise Small
Smallrise
rise No
Nochange
changeSmall
Smallfall
fall Large
Largefall
fall
Gold
Gold -100
-100 100
Investing 200
100 in200 300
300 a regret
gold generates 00
Bond
Bond 250
250 200
200 150
of 600 when -100
150 the market -150
-100 exhibits-150
Stock
Stock 500
500 250
250 100
100
a large -200
Th rise
-200 -600
-600
C/D 60 60 60 e op 60 60
C/D 60 60 60 60
tim 60
500 – (-100) = 600 al
de
The
The Regret
Regret Table
Table
cis
Maximum
Maximum
ion
Decision
Decision Large
Large rise
rise Small
Smallrise
riseNo
No change
change Small
Smallfall
fall Large
Large fall
fall Regret
Regret
Gold
Gold 600
600 150
150 00 00 60
60 600
600
Bond
Bond 250
250 50
50 50
50 400
400 210
210 400
400
Stock
Stock 00 00 100
100 500
500 660
660 660
660
C/D
C/D 440
440 190
190 140
140 240
240 00 440
440
23 The Minimax Regret - spreadsheet

=MAX(B14:F14)
Drag to H18
=MAX(B$4:B$7)-B4
Drag to F16

Cell I13 (hidden) =A13

Drag to I16

=MIN(H13:H16)

=VLOOKUP(MIN(H13:H16),H13:I16,2,FALSE)
 24 Decision Making Under Uncertainty -
The Maximax Criterion
 This criterion is based on the best possible scenario.
It fits both an optimistic and an aggressive decision maker.

 An optimistic decision maker believes that the best possible

outcome will always take place regardless of the decision
made.

 An aggressive decision maker looks for the decision with the

highest payoff (when payoff is profit).
25 Decision Making Under Uncertainty -
The Maximax Criterion
 To find an optimal decision.
 Find the maximum payoff for each decision alternative.
 Select the decision alternative that has the maximum of the “maximum” payoff.
 26
TOM BROWN - The Maximax Criterion

Th
eo
pti
al m
The Maximax Criterion Maximum
de
Decision Large rise Small rise No change Small fall Largecisfall Payoff
Gold -100 100 200 300 0 ion 300
Bond 250 200 150 -100 -150 200
Stock 500 250 100 -200 -600 500
C/D 60 60 60 60 60 60
 Decision Making Under Uncertainty - The
27

Principle of Insufficient Reason

 This criterion might appeal to a decision maker who is neither pessimistic nor
optimistic.
 It assumes all the states of nature are equally likely to occur.
 The procedure to find an optimal decision.

 For each decision add all the payoffs.

 Select the decision with the largest sum (for profits).
28 TOM BROWN - Insufficient
Reason
 Sum of Payoffs
 Gold 600 Dollars
 Bond 350 Dollars
 Stock 50 Dollars
 C/D 300 Dollars

 Based on this criterion the optimal decision alternative is to

invest in gold.
29 Decision Making Under Uncertainty –
Spreadsheet template
Payoff Table

Large Rise Small Rise No Change Small Fall Large Fall

Gold -100 100 200 300 0
Bond 250 200 150 -100 -150
Stock 500 250 100 -200 -600
C/D Account 60 60 60 60 60
d5
d6
d7
d8
Probability 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1

RESULTS
Criteria Decision Payoff
Maximin C/D Account 60
Minimax Regret Bond 400
Maximax Stock 500
Insufficient Reason Gold 100
EV Bond 130
EVPI 141
30 Decision Making Under Risk

• The probability estimate for the occurrence of

each state of nature (if available) can be
incorporated in the search for the optimal
decision.
• For each decision calculate its expected payoff.
31 Decision Making Under Risk –
The Expected Value Criterion
 For each decision calculate the expected payoff as follows:

Expected Payoff == (Probability)(Payoff)

Expected Payoff (Probability)(Payoff)
(The summation is calculated across all the states of
nature)
 Select the decision with the best expected payoff
 TOM
32 BROWN - The Expected Value Criterion

The
opt
im a
The Expected Value Criterion l deci Expected
sion
Decision Large rise Small rise No change Small fall Large fall Value
Gold -100 100 200 300 0 100
Bond 250 200 150 -100 -150 130
Stock 500 250 100 -200 -600 125
C/D 60 60 60 60 60 60
Prior Prob. 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1

EV = (0.2)(250) + (0.3)(200) + (0.3)(150) + (0.1)(-100) + (0.1)(-150) = 130

When
33 to use the expected value approach

 The expected value criterion is useful generally in two cases:

 Long run planning is appropriate, and decision situations repeat themselves.
 The decision maker is risk neutral.
34 The Expected Value Criterion -
spreadsheet Cell H4 (hidden) = A4
Drag to H7

=SUMPRODUCT(B4:F4,$B$8:$F$8)
Drag to G7
=MAX(G4:G7)

=VLOOKUP(MAX(G4:G7),G4:H7,2,FALSE)
6.435 Expected Value of Perfect Information

 The gain in expected return obtained from knowing with certainty the future state of
nature is called:

Expected Value of Perfect

Information (EVPI)
 36 TOM BROWN - EVPI
If it were known with certainty that there will be a “Large Rise” in the market

The-100
Expected Value of Perfect Information
Decision Large
Largerise
rise Small rise No change Small fall Large fall
Gold 250
-100 100 200 300 0
Bond 250 200 150 -100 -150
Stock
Stock 500500 250 100 -200 -600
C/D 60 60 60 60 60
Probab. 60 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1

... the optimal decision would be to invest in...

Similarly,…
37 TOM BROWN - EVPI

The-100
Expected Value of Perfect Information
Decision Large rise Small rise No change Small fall Large fall
Gold 250
-100 100 200 300 0
Bond 250 200 150 -100 -150
Stock 500
500 250 100 -200 -600
C/D 60 60 60 60 60
Probab. 600.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1

Expected Return with Perfect information =

ERPI = 0.2(500)+0.3(250)+0.3(200)+0.1(300)+0.1(60) = $271
Expected Return without additional information =
Expected Return of the EV criterion = $130
EVPI = ERPI - EREV = $271 - $130 = $141
 38

6.5 Bayesian Analysis - Decision Making with

Imperfect Information

 Bayesian Statistics play a role in assessing additional information obtained from

various sources.

 This additional information may assist in refining original probability estimates, and
help improve decision making.
 39 TOM BROWN – Using Sample
Information
 Tom can purchase econometric forecast results for $50.
 The forecast predicts “negative” or “positive” econometric growth.
 Statistics regarding the forecast are:

Should Tom purchase the Forecast ?

The Forecast When the stock market showed a...

predicted Large Rise Small Rise No Change Small Fall Large Fall
Positive econ. growth 80% 70% 50% 40% 0%
Negative econ. growth 20% 30% 50% 60% 100%

When the stock market showed a large rise the

Forecast predicted a “positive growth” 80% of the time.
40 TOM BROWN – Solution
Using Sample Information
 If the expected gain resulting from the decisions
made with the forecast exceeds $50, Tom should
purchase the forecast.
The expected gain =
Expected payoff with forecast – EREV
 To find Expected payoff with forecast Tom should
determine what to do when:
 The forecast is “positive growth”,
 The forecast is “negative growth”.
41 TOM BROWN – Solution
Using Sample Information
 Tom needs to know the following probabilities
 P(Large rise | The forecast predicted “Positive”)
 P(Small rise | The forecast predicted “Positive”)
 P(No change | The forecast predicted “Positive ”)
 P(Small fall | The forecast predicted “Positive”)
 P(Large Fall | The forecast predicted “Positive”)
 P(Large rise | The forecast predicted “Negative ”)
 P(Small rise | The forecast predicted “Negative”)
 P(No change | The forecast predicted “Negative”)
 P(Small fall | The forecast predicted “Negative”)
 P(Large Fall) | The forecast predicted “Negative”)
42 TOM BROWN – Solution
Bayes’ Theorem
 Bayes’ Theorem provides a procedure to calculate these probabilities

P(B|Ai)P(Ai)
P(Ai|B) =
P(B|A1)P(A1)+ P(B|A2)P(A2)+…+ P(B|An)P(An)

Posterior Probabilities Prior probabilities

Probabilities determined Probability estimates
after the additional info determined based on
becomes available. current info, before the
new info becomes available.
43 TOM BROWN – Solution
Bayes’ Theorem
• The tabular approach to calculating posterior
probabilities for “positive” economical forecast
States of Prior Prob. Joint Posterior
Nature Prob. (State|Positive) Prob. Prob.
Large Rise 0.2 X 0.8 = 0.16 0.286
Small Rise 0.3 0.7 0.21 0.375
No Change 0.3 0.5 0.15 0.268
Small Fall 0.1 0.4 0.04 0.071
Large Fall 0.1 0 0 0.000

The Probability that the forecast is

“positive” and the stock market
shows “Large Rise”.
44 TOM BROWN – Solution
Bayes’ Theorem
• The tabular approach to calculating posterior
probabilities for “positive” economical forecast
States of Prior Prob. Joint Posterior
Nature Prob. (State|Positive) Prob. Prob.
0.16
Large Rise 0.2 X 0.8 = 0.16 0.286
0.56
Small Rise 0.3 0.7 0.21 0.375
No Change 0.3 0.5 0.15 0.268
Small Fall 0.1 0.4 0.04 0.071
Large Fall 0.1 0 0 0.000
The probability that the stock market
shows “Large Rise” given that
the forecast is “positive”
45 TOM BROWN – Solution
Bayes’ Theorem
• The tabular approach to calculating posterior
probabilities for “positive” economical forecast
States of Prior Prob. Joint Posterior
Nature Prob. (State|Positive) Prob. Prob.
Large Rise 0.2 X 0.8 = 0.16 0.286
Small Rise 0.3 0.7 0.21 0.375
No Change 0.3 Observe
0.5 the revision
0.15 in 0.268
Small Fall 0.1 the0.4
prior probabilities
0.04 0.071
Large Fall 0.1 0 0 0.000

Probability(Forecast = positive) = .56

46 TOM BROWN – Solution
Bayes’ Theorem
• The tabular approach to calculating posterior
probabilities for “negative” economical forecast
States of Prior Prob. Joint Posterior
Nature Prob. (State|negative) Probab. Probab.
Large Rise 0.2 0.2 0.04 0.091
Small Rise 0.3 0.3 0.09 0.205
No Change 0.3 0.5 0.15 0.341
Small Fall 0.1 0.6 0.06 0.136
Large Fall 0.1 1 0.1 0.227
Probability(Forecast = negative) = .44
 47 Posterior (revised) Probabilities
spreadsheet template
Bayesian
BayesianAnalysis
Analysis

Indicator
Indicator11 Indicator
Indicator22

States
States Prior
Prior Conditional
Conditional Joint
Joint Posterior
Posterior States
States Prior
Prior Conditional
Conditional Joint
Joint Posterior
Posterior
ofofNature Probabilities Probabilities Probabilities Probabilites
Nature Probabilities Probabilities Probabilities Probabilites ofofNature Probabilities Probabilities Probabilities Probabilites
Nature Probabilities Probabilities Probabilities Probabilites
Large
LargeRise
Rise 0.2
0.2 0.8
0.8 0.16
0.16 0.286
0.286 Large
LargeRise
Rise 0.2
0.2 0.2
0.2 0.04
0.04 0.091
0.091
Small Rise
Small Rise 0.3
0.3 0.7
0.7 0.21
0.21 0.375
0.375 Small Rise
Small Rise 0.3
0.3 0.3
0.3 0.09
0.09 0.205
0.205
No Change
No Change 0.3
0.3 0.5
0.5 0.15
0.15 0.268
0.268 No Change
No Change 0.3
0.3 0.5
0.5 0.15
0.15 0.341
0.341
Small Fall
Small Fall 0.1
0.1 0.4
0.4 0.04
0.04 0.071
0.071 Small Fall
Small Fall 0.1
0.1 0.6
0.6 0.06
0.06 0.136
0.136
Large Fall
Large Fall 0.1
0.1 00 00 0.000
0.000 Large Fall
Large Fall 0.1
0.1 11 0.1
0.1 0.227
0.227
s6
s6 00 00 0.000
0.000 s6
s6 00 00 0.000
0.000
s7
s7 00 00 0.000
0.000 s7
s7 00 00 0.000
0.000
s8
s8 00 00 0.000
0.000 s8
s8 00 00 0.000
0.000
P(Indicator 1)
P(Indicator 1) 0.56
0.56 P(Indicator 2)
P(Indicator 2) 0.44
0.44
48 Expected Value of Sample Information
EVSI
 This is the expected gain from making decisions based on Sample Information.
 Revise the expected return for each decision using the posterior probabilities as
follows:
TOM
49 BROWN – Conditional Expected Values

The revised probabilities payoff table

Decision Large rise Small rise No change Small fall Large fall
Gold -100 100 200 300 0
Bond 250 200 150 -100 -150
Stock 500 250 100 -200 -600
C/D 60 60 60 60 60
P(State|Positive) 0.286 0.375 0.268 0.071 0
P(State|negative) 0.091 0.205 0.341 0.136 0.227

GOLD |“Positive” forecast) =

EV(Invest in…….
=.286(-100)+.375( 100 )+.268( 200)+.071( 300)+0( 0 ) = $84
GOLD | “Negative” forecast) =
EV(Invest in …….
=.091(-100 )+.205( 100 )+.341( 200 )+.136( 300 )+.227( 0 ) = $120
TOM
50 BROWN – Conditional Expected Values

 The revised expected values for each decision:

Positive forecast Negative forecast

EV(Gold|Positive) = 84 EV(Gold|Negative)
= 120
EV(Bond|Positive) = 180 EV(Bond|Negative)
= 65
EV(Stock|Positive) = 250 EV(Stock|Negative)
= -37
EV(C/D|Positive)
If the forecast is “Positive” = 60If the forecast
EV(C/D|Negative)
is “Negative”
= 60
Invest in Stock. Invest in Gold.
TOM
51 BROWN – Conditional Expected Values

 Since the forecast is unknown before it is purchased, Tom can only calculate the
expected return from purchasing it.
 Expected return when buying the forecast = ERSI = P(Forecast is
positive)(EV(Stock|Forecast is positive)) +
P(Forecast is negative”)(EV(Gold|Forecast is
negative))
= (.56)(250) + (.44)(120) = $192.5
52 Expected Value of Sampling
Information (EVSI)
 The expected gain from buying the forecast is:
EVSI = ERSI – EREV = 192.5 – 130 = $62.5

 Tom should purchase the forecast. His expected gain is greater

than the forecast cost.

 Efficiency = EVSI / EVPI = 63 / 141 = 0.45

 TOM
53 BROWN – Solution
EVSI spreadsheet template
Payoff Table

Large Rise Small Rise No Change Small Fall Large Fall s6 s7 s8 EV(prior) EV(ind. 1) EV(ind. 2)
Gold -100 100 200 300 0 100 83.93 120.45
Bond 250 200 150 -100 -150 130 179.46 67.05
Stock 500 250 100 -200 -600 125 249.11 -32.95
C/D Account 60 60 60 60 60 60 60.00 60.00
d5
d6
d7
d8
Prior Prob. 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1
Ind. 1 Prob. 0.286 0.375 0.268 0.071 0.000 #### ### ## 0.56
Ind 2. Prob. 0.091 0.205 0.341 0.136 0.227 #### ### ## 0.44
Ind. 3 Prob.
Ind 4 Prob.

RESULTS
Prior Ind. 1 Ind. 2 Ind. 3 Ind. 4
optimal payoff 130.00 249.11 120.45 0.00 0.00
optimal decision Bond Stock Gold

EVSI = 62.5
EVPI = 141
Efficiency= 0.44
54 6.6 Decision Trees

 The Payoff Table approach is useful for a non-sequential or single

stage.

 Many real-world decision problems consists of a sequence of

dependent decisions.

 Decision Trees are useful in analyzing multi-stage decision

processes.
55 Characteristics of a decision tree
 A Decision Tree is a chronological representation of the
decision process.
 The tree is composed of nodes and branches.

Chance ) A branch emanating from a

P(S 1
node decision node corresponds to a
P(S2)
Decision decision alternative. It includes a
is io n1 P(S
node Dec t 1 cost or benefit value.
s 3)
Co )
Dec
ision P(S 1 A branch emanating from a state of
Co s 2 P(S2) nature (chance) node corresponds to a
t2
P(S particular state of nature, and includes
3) the probability of this state of nature.
56
BILL GALLEN DEVELOPMENT COMPANY

 BGD plans to do a commercial development on a property.

 Relevant data
 Asking price for the property is 300,000 dollars.
 Construction cost is 500,000 dollars.
 Selling price is approximated at 950,000 dollars.
 Variance application costs 30,000 dollars in fees and expenses
 There is only 40% chance that the variance will be approved.
 If BGD purchases the property and the variance is denied, the property can be sold for a net return of
260,000 dollars.
 A three month option on the property costs 20,000 dollars, which will allow BGD to apply for the
variance.
57 BILL GALLEN
DEVELOPMENT COMPANY
 A consultant can be hired for 5000 dollars.
 The consultant will provide an opinion about the approval of the
application
 P (Consultant predicts approval | approval granted) = 0.70
 P (Consultant predicts denial | approval denied) = 0.80

 BGD wishes to determine the optimal strategy

 Hire/ not hire the consultant now,
 Other decisions that follow sequentially.
 58
BILL GALLEN - Solution
 Construction of the Decision Tree
 Initially the company faces a decision about hiring the consultant.

 After this decision is made more decisions follow regarding

 Application for the variance.
 Purchasing the option.
 Purchasing the property.
59 BILL GALLEN - The Decision Tree 0
ing
3
oth
Do n 0
Buy land Apply for variance
nt -300,000 -30,000
lu ta Pu
rch
ons ase
c -20
ih re t = 0 ,00 op
tion
t s 0
no Co
Do

Le
to t us
Apply for variance
Hi r no con -30,000
ec
th
Co
on
su
lt ire side
st
= - ant a c r th
50 on e d
00 su ec
lta isi
nt on
60 BILL GALLEN - The Decision Tree

Buy land and -300000 – 30000 – 500000 + 950000 = 120,000

apply for variance Build Sell
ved -500,000 950,000
ro
App .4
0
Den
ied
-300000 – 30000 + 260000 = -70,000
0.6 Sell
260,000
Buy land Build Sell
d
p rove -300,000 -500,000 950,000
Ap 100,000
0.4
12 Den
ied
0.6

Purchase option and -50,000

apply for variance
61 BILL GALLEN - The Decision
Tree
0
Buy land and -300000 – 30000 – 500000 + 950000 = 120,000
ng apply for variance Build Sell
othi
Do n 0 -500,000 950,000
Buy land Apply for variance
nt -300,000 -30,000
lta Pu -300000 – 30000 + 260000 = -70,000
n su r ch
ase Sell
co -20
h ir
e =0 ,00 op
tion 260,000
ot Co st 0
n Buy land
Do Build Sell
-300,000 -500,000 950,000
100,000
Apply 12
for variance
Hir -30,000
ec
on
Co su
st ltan
=- t
50 Purchase option and
00 -50,000
apply for variance 61

This is where we are at this stage

60

Let us consider the decision to hire a consultant

 ultant
62 hi re cons Done -5000
ot
Do n 0 thin
g
N o
Do
Hir Buy land Apply for variance
e
co
n -300,000
-50 sulta dict al Pu r
ch a
-30,000
e v
00 nt Pr pro se o
ptio
Ap -20,
000 n

0.4
Apply for variance
-30,000
Let us consider the
decision to hire a Pre nial
De
dic -5000
consultant othing
0.6

N
t
Do
Buy land Apply for variance
-300,000 -30,000
Purc
hase
optio
-20,0 n
BILL GALLEN – 00
Apply for variance

The Decision Tree -30,000

63 BILL GALLEN - The Decision Tree

115,000
Build Sell
ved -500,000 950,000
r o
App
Den ?
ied
-75,000
Sell
? 260,000
Co
ns
ult
an
tp
r ed
icts
an
a pp
ro va
l
64 BILL GALLEN - The Decision Tree

115,000
Build Sell
ved -500,000 950,000
r o
App
Den ?
ied
-75,000
Sell
? 260,000

The consultant serves as a source for additional information

about denial or approval of the variance.
65 BILL GALLEN - The Decision Tree

115,000
Build Sell
ved -500,000 950,000
r o
App
Den ?
ied
-75,000
Sell
? 260,000

Therefore, at this point we need to calculate the

posterior probabilities for the approval and denial
of the variance application
 66 BILL GALLEN - The Decision Tree

115,000
Build Sell
23 -500,000 24 950,000
25
r oved
App
22 Den ?
.7
ied
-75,000
Sell
?
.3 26 27
260,000

Posterior Probability of (approval | consultant predicts approval) = 0.70

Posterior Probability of (denial | consultant predicts approval) = 0.30
The rest of the Decision Tree is built in a similar manner.
67 The Decision Tree
Determining the Optimal Strategy

 Work backward from the end of each branch.

 At a state of nature node, calculate the expected value

of the node.

 At a decision node, the branch that has the highest

ending node value represents the optimal decision.
 68 BILL GALLEN - The Decision Tree
Determining the Optimal Strategy
05 00 115,000 115,000 115,000
. 7)=8 00 115,000 115,000 115,000
0 0 )(0 805 115,000
1 5,0 500 Build Sell
(1 0800 23 -500,000 24 950,000
25
805 r oved
p
58,000 Ap
22 D enie
?
0.70
-75,000 -75,000 -75,000 -75,000
-22 -75,000
50 d -75,000
0 -75,000
(-7 -225 0.30 Sell
5,0 00 ? 26 27
00 260,000
)(0 -22
.3) 500
=-
22
50
0
With 58,000 as the chance node value,
we continue backward to evaluate
the previous nodes.
 69 BILL GALLEN - The Decision Tree
Determining the Optimal Strategy
$115,000
Build,
$10,000 Sell

o t

ed
$20,000 Do n .7

rov
e
hir $58,000

App
Buy land; Apply
Hi pr oval for variance
re $20,000
p
r edicts a
P
.4
.3

D en
Pre
di cts

ied
den
ial $-5,000
.6 Sell
Do nothing land
$-75,000
BILL
70 GALLEN - The Decision Tree
Excel add-in: Tree Plan
BILL
71 GALLEN - The Decision Tree
Excel add-in: Tree Plan
72 6.7 Decision Making and Utility

 Introduction
 The expected value criterion may not be appropriate if the decision is a one-time
opportunity with substantial risks.
 Decision makers do not always choose decisions based on the expected value
criterion.
 A lottery ticket has a negative net expected return.
 Insurance policies cost more than the present value of the expected loss the insurance
company pays to cover insured losses.
73 The Utility Approach

 It is assumed that a decision maker can rank decisions in

a coherent manner.
 Utility values, U(V), reflect the decision maker’s
perspective and attitude toward risk.

 Each payoff is assigned a utility value. Higher payoffs

get larger utility value.

 The optimal decision is the one that maximizes the

expected utility.
74 Determining Utility Values

 The technique provides an insightful look into the amount of risk the decision
maker is willing to take.
 The concept is based on the decision maker’s preference to taking a sure payoff
versus participating in a lottery.
Determining
75 Utility Values
Indifference approach for assigning utility values

 List every possible payoff in the payoff table in ascending order.

 Assign a utility of 0 to the lowest value and a value of 1 to the highest value.
 For all other possible payoffs (Rij) ask the decision maker the following question:
Determining
76 Utility Values
Indifference approach for assigning utility values

 Suppose you are given the option to select one of the following two
alternatives:
 Receive $Rij (one of the payoff values) for sure,
 Play a game of chance where you receive either
 The highest payoff of $Rmax with probability p, or
 The lowest payoff of $Rmin with probability 1- p.
Determining
77 Utility Values
Indifference approach for assigning utility values

1-p Rmax
Rij
Rmin

What value of p would make you indifferent

between the two situations?”
Determining
78 Utility Values
Indifference approach for assigning utility values

1-p Rmax
Rij
Rmin

The answer to this question is the indifference

probability for the payoff Rij and is used as the
utility values of Rij.
Determining
79 Utility Values
Indifference approach for assigning utility values

Example: s 1 s1

d1 150 100
d2 -50 140

Alternative 1 • For p = 1.0, you’ll Alternative 2

A sure event prefer Alternative 2. (Game-of-chance)
• For p = 0.0, you’ll
prefer Alternative 1.
• Thus, for some p $150
$100 between 0.0 and 1.0
1-p
you’ll be indifferent
p -50
between the alternatives.
Determining
80 Utility Values
Indifference approach for assigning utility values

s 1 s1

d1 150 100
d2 -50 140

Alternative 1 • Let’s assume the Alternative 2

A sure event probability of (Game-of-chance)
indifference is p = .7.

U(100)=.7U(150)+.3U(-50) $150
$100
= .7(1) + .3(0) = .7
1-p
p -50
 TOM
81 BROWN - Determining Utility Values
 Data
 The highest payoff was $500. Lowest payoff was -$600.
 The indifference probabilities provided by Tom are

Payoff -600 -200 -150 -100 0 60 100 150 200 250 300 500
Tom wishes to determine his optimal investment Decision.
Prob. 0 0.25 0.3 0.36 0.5 0.6 0.65 0.7 0.75 0.85 0.9 1
 82 TOM BROWN – Optimal decision
(utility)
Utility Analysis Certain Payoff Utility
-600 0
Large Rise Small Rise No Change Small Fall Large Fall EU -200 0.25
Gold 0.36 0.65 0.75 0.9 0.5 0.632 -150 0.3
Bond 0.85 0.75 0.7 0.36 0.3 0.671 -100 0.36
Stock 1 0.85 0.65 0.25 0 0.675 0 0.5
C/D Account 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 60 0.6
d5 0 100 0.65
d6 0 150 0.7
d7 0 200 0.75
d8 0 250 0.85
Probability 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 300 0.9
500 1

RESULTS
Criteria Decision Value
Exp. Utility Stock 0.675
83 Three types of Decision Makers

 Risk Averse -Prefers a certain outcome to a chance

outcome having the same expected value.

 Risk Taking - Prefers a chance outcome to a certain

outcome having the same expected value.

 Risk Neutral - Is indifferent between a chance

outcome and a certain outcome having the same
expected value.
 84 The Utility Curve for a
Utility Risk Averse Decision Maker

U(200)
U(150)
EU(Game)

The
Theutility
utilityofofhaving
having$150
$150on
onhand…
hand…
U(100)
…is
…islarger
largerthan
thanthe
theexpected
expectedutility
utility
ofofaagame
gamewhose
whoseexpected
expectedvalue
value
isisalso
also$150.
$150.

100 150 200 Payoff

0.5 0.5
 85 The Utility Curve for a
Utility Risk Averse Decision Maker

U(200)
U(150)
EU(Game) AArisk
riskaverse
aversedecision
decisionmaker
makeravoids
avoids
the
thethrill
thrillofofaagame-of-chance,
game-of-chance,
whose
whoseexpected
expectedvalue
valueisisEV,
EV,ififhe
he
U(100) can
canhave
haveEV EVononhand
handfor
forsure.
sure.
Furthermore,
Furthermore,aariskriskaverse
aversedecision
decision
maker
makerisiswilling
willingtotopay
payaapremium…
premium…
…to
…tobuy
buyhimself
himself(herself)
(herself)out
outofofthe
the
game-of-chance.
game-of-chance.
100 CE 150 200 Payoff
0.5 0.5
86
Utility
Risk Averse Decision Maker

ker
n Ma
s io
e ci
lD
utra
k Ne
Ris
Risk Taking Decision Maker

Payoff
87 6.8 Game Theory

 Game theory can be used to determine optimal decisions in face of other

decision making players.

 All the players are seeking to maximize their return.

 The payoff is based on the actions taken by all the decision making players.
88 Classification of Games

 By number of players
 Two players - Chess
 Multiplayer – Poker
 By total return
 Zero Sum - the amount won and amount lost by all competitors are equal (Poker among
friends)
 Nonzero Sum -the amount won and the amount lost by all competitors are not equal
(Poker In A Casino)
 By sequence of moves
 Sequential - each player gets a play in a given sequence.
 Simultaneous - all players play simultaneously.
89 IGA SUPERMARKET

 The town of Gold Beach is served by two

supermarkets: IGA and Sentry.

 Market share can be influenced by their

advertising policies.

 The manager of each supermarket must decide

weekly which area of operations to discount and
emphasize in the store’s newspaper flyer.
90 IGA SUPERMARKET

 Data
 The weekly percentage gain in market share for IGA, as a function of advertising
emphasis.

Sentry's Emphasis
Meat Produce Grocery Bakery
IGA's Meat 2 2 -8 6
 A gain in market share to IGA results in equivalent loss for Sentry, and vice versa
Emphasis
(i.e. a zero sum Produce
game) -2 0 6 -4
Grocery 2 -7 1 -3
91

IGA needs to determine an advertising

emphasis that will maximize its expected
change in market share regardless of
Sentry’s action.
IGA
92
SUPERMARKET - Solution

 To prevent a sure loss of market share, both IGA and Sentry should select the
weekly emphasis randomly.
 Thus, the question for both stores is:
What proportion of the time each area should be emphasized by each store?
IGA’s
93
Linear Programming Model

 Decision variables
 X1 = the probability IGA’s advertising focus is on meat.
 X2 = the probability IGA’s advertising focus is on produce.
 X 3 = the probability IGA’s advertising focus is on groceries.

 Objective Function For IGA

 Maximize expected market increase regardless of Sentry’s advertising policy.
 IGA’s
94
Perspective
 Constraints
 IGA’s market share increase for any given advertising focus selected by Sentry, must be
at least V.
 The model
Max V
S.T.
Meat 2X1 – 2X2 + 2X3 V
Produce 2XIGA’s
1 expected–change
7 X3  V
Groceries -8X1 – 6X2 + X3  V
Bakery 6X1in market
– 4X2 share.
– 3X3  V
Probability X1 + X2 + X3 = 1

Sentry’s
advertising
emphasis
Sentry’s Linear Programming Model
95

 Decision variables
 Y1 = the probability Sentry’s advertising focus is on meat.
 Y2 = the probability Sentry’s advertising focus is on
produce.
 Y 3 = the probability Sentry’s advertising focus is on
groceries.
 Y4 = the probability Sentry’s advertising focus is on
bakery.
 Objective Function For Sentry
Minimize the changes in market share in favor of IGA
Sentry’s
96
perspective

 Constraints
 Sentry’s market share decrease for any given
advertising focus selected by IGA, must not exceed V.
 The Model
Min V
S.T.
2Y1 + 2Y2 – 8Y3 + 6Y4  V
-2Y1 + 6Y3 – 4Y4 V
2Y1 – 7Y2 + Y3 – 3Y4 V
Y1 + Y2 + Y3 + Y4 = 1

Y1, Y2, Y3, Y4 are non-negative; V is unrestricted

IGA SUPERMARKET – Optimal Solution
97

 For IGA
 X1 = 0.3889; X2 = 0.5; X3 = 0.1111

 For Sentry
 Y1 = .3333; Y2 = 0; Y3 = .3333; Y4 = .3333

 For both players V =0 (a fair game).

IGA
98
Optimal Solution - worksheet

Worksheet: [IGA.xls]Sheet1

Adjustable Cells
Final Reduced Objective Allowable Allowable
Cell Name Value Cost Coefficient Increase Decrease
$A$2 X1 0.388888889 0 0 4 6
$B$2 X2 0.5 0 0 4 2
$C$2 X3 0.111111111 0 0 1.5 2
$D$2 V -6.75062E-29 0 1 1E+30 1

Constraints
Final Shadow Constraint Allowable Allowable
Cell Name Value Price R.H. Side Increase Decrease
$E$4 -1.11022E-16 -0.333333333 0 0 1E+30
$E$5 6.75062E-29 0 0 0 1E+30
$E$6 3.88578E-16 -0.333333333 0 1E+30 0
$E$7 -2.77556E-16 -0.333333333 0 1E+30 0
$E$8 1 0 1 0.000199941 1E+30
99
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