.

Modeling in GIS

12 April 2005
Begin working on Building A
Groundwater Protection
Model
Types of models
A model may be a representation of
data (e.g. a DEM)
A conceptual model is an idea of how
something functions (often described with a
flow chart)
Rule-based modeling uses rules and
numerical thresholds to interpret
information represented in multiple data
themes
More types of models
Mathematical modeling involves use of
equations that may be implemented within
GIS or linked to GIS
Statistical mathematical models are based
on empirical observations and contain one or
more random variables
Deterministic mathematical models do not
contain any random variables
Environmental simulation models are
mathematical models that represent
environmental processes
Even more models
Cartographic modeling involves GIS analysis of
spatial data with Boolean or mathematical
operations
Statistical GIS modeling involves developing
relationships between GIS-derived environmental
characteristics (independent variables) and
measures of ecological function (dependent
variables)
In coupled GIS/simulation modeling, GIS are
used to derive input variables required by a
simulation model
Cartographic modeling example
Cartographic modeling
Cartographic modeling is often used to
identify suitable habitats for organisms from
environmental variables
E.g. maps of vegetation, food, roads, etc. can be
combined to predict a species distribution
Has been used on Wild Turkeys, Golden-cheeked
Warblers, Wood Storks, White-tailed Deer, Gopher
Tortoise, California Condor, etc.
Cartographic modeling
continued
It is also possible to combine the variables in a
mathematical model where each data layer
represents a separate variable
For example, it is possible to compute soil loss bass on
six variables:
• 1.) Rainfall erosion index (R) 4.) Slope length (S)
• 2.) Inherent soil erodibility (K) 5.) Cover & management factor (C)
• 3.) Slope percentage (L) 6.) Conservation practice factor (P)
A = RKLSCP
A similar approach has been used to model non-point
source pollution
Rule-based modeling
Expert systems are computer systems
that help solve problems that would
normally require a human expert’s
interpretation
Expert systems can be linked with a GIS
and thus made spatially explicit
Expert systems utilize three types of
rules
Three types of rules for rule-
based modeling
1.) Database rule to evaluate numerical
information
2.) Map rules to evaluate mapped
categorical variables
3.) Heuristic rules to evaluate the
knowledge of experts
Inductive-spatial modeling
In inductive-spatial modeling, a GIS
“learns” relationships between datasets
in the geographic database, developing
rules based on the analysis of the input
data
This is a form of rule-based modeling
This approach has been used to model
habitat suitability for Red Deer in Scotland
Spatial Decision Support System
SDSS is a type of rule-based modeling
A SDSS adds the ability to recommend
management solutions to environmental
problems
It can also help evaluate the
consequences of various management
scenarios, aiding in decision-making
SDSS example
Statistical modeling
If the relationships needed for
development of a model are not known,
GIS can be used to:
Assemble spatial data on landscape
properties
Derive new data that are syntheses of the
originals
Statistically analyze the new data to
determine the strength of the interactions
Statistical modeling example
Avoiding spatial bias in
statistical modeling
How do you minimize autocorrelation?
Random sample selection
Choosing sample points that are
regularly spaced (at a distance that
meets an acceptable level of spatial
autocorrelation)
Statistical models for continuous
data
In GIS-univariate statistical modeling
what are dependent variables and what
are independent variables?
Dependent variables are typically field
measurements (e.g. biomass, diversity,
richness, etc.)
Independent variables are derived from a
digital database containing continuous data
(e.g. elevation)
Example of a univariate model
Examples of statistical models
Regression analysis to relate vegetation
alteration by beaver dams to beaver colony
density
ANCOVA to compare expansion rates of oak
wilt fungus in urban vs. rural areas in TX
Stepwise multiple regression to relate the %
of trees / cell damaged by spruce budworm
to physical and vegetative site characteristics
represented by a number of GIS data layers
Statistical models for categorical
data
Categorical data requires a different
analysis than continuous data

Expected vs. observed outcomes

Bayesian statistics
Expected vs. observed outcomes
Most rely on a chi-square (χ2) analysis
For example:
Young et al. (1987) used χ2 analysis to
demonstrate that Northern Spotted Owls used old-
growth more often than would be expected based
on its percentage of the landscape
Agee et al. (1989) used χ2 analysis to examine
habitat preferences of grizzly bears
Expected vs. observed outcomes2
In addition to χ2 analysis, it is also possible
to utilize logistic regression
Logistic regression compares the attributes of
the locations where the phenomenon is present
with those of the location where the
phenomenon is absent
Pereira and Itami (1991) used logistic
multiple regression to model the potential
effects of a proposed observatory on the
Mount Graham Red Squirrel
Mt Graham Red Squirrel

From http://medusa.as.arizona.edu/graham/envir.html
Squirrel numbers
Bayesian Statistics
Bayesian statistics provide a framework
for combining relative values of being right
or wrong (subjective probabilities) with the
probabilities of being right of wrong
(conditional probabilities)
Relies upon state-conditional probability
density functions, the a priori probability of
a state, and the a posteri probability of
each state, given certain conditions
GIS coupled with mathematical
models
GIS is most successful when coupled
with models that predict outcomes of
processes (e.g. succession, NDVI,
nutrient cycling, etc.)
Often used as an iterative process to
simulate responses to new
environmental conditions or to produce
new maps of predicted ecosystem
properties along spatial gradients
Process
1.) Hypotheses are formulated on how behavior of
organisms or ecosystems depends on their spatial
relation with systems & environment
2.) Combinations of environmental variables are
identified
3.) Spatial distribution, coincidence, or proximity
of variables identified with the GIS can be input
into the computer models to examine the
hypothesized consequences of spatial relations
Population simulation models
Population growth depends upon both
intrinsic and extrinsic factors
Intrinsic factors: birth rate, death rate,
immigration, emigration
Extrinsic factors: Physical environment,
interaction/competition with other species, etc.
Including spatial data (as an extrinsic factor)
often produces more useful models
Ecosystem and landscape
simulation models
Ecosystem and landscape simulation models
attempt to duplicate ecological function via
coupled differential equations that describe key
ecosystem and landscape processes
For example, JABOWA and FORET forest
models simulate the birth, growth, and death of
individual trees based on deterministic, intrinsic
stand variables (e.g. shading, crowding) and
stochastic environmental variables (e.g. heat
sums, temperature extremes, soil moisture)
Ecosystem and landscape
simulation models continued
These models can be linked to a GIS in
two ways
1.) Data from a GIS can be extracted and
used to run a model
2.) The results of the model can be
displayed in GIS
Spatially dynamic ecosystem
models
Although many of the models described
previously work fairly well, they all have
difficulty incorporating stochastic elements
(e.g. fire and weather events)
In order to account for these things, you
need a Monte Carlo simulation
To date, few spatially dynamic models have
been linked to a GIS, primarily due to the
computational requirements
Time for scientific paper
discussion
For next Thursday
Abstracts due in class
Will review them before lab
During lab, abstracts will be sent to Scientific
Sewanee coordinator
Read (and be prepared to discuss) “Using
Atlas Data to Model the Distribution of
Woodpecker Species in the Jura, France”
Read Campbell CH 16