INTELLIGENCE

CYCLE
INTELLIGENCE
CYCLE Direction
Direction

Dissemination
Collection

Production
&
Analysis

is the process through which

intelligence is
obtained, produced, and
made available to users.
Intelligence Cycle Summary
• Cycle feeds back upon itself

• Ensures that assessments

continue to be refined

• Intelligence stays up-to-date

• Responds to the need of the

commander
Intelligence is a subset of Information

Information CAN be intelligence,

but, intelligence CANNOT be
information.

Intelligence has a specific

purpose and use
 Intelligence is defined as the
product resulting from the
collection, evaluation, analysis,
integration, and the
interpretation of all available
information. Intelligence is
processed information.
OR:

Processed accurate
information, presented in
sufficient time toenable a
decision maker to take whatever
action is required.
Strategic Intelligence

Operational Intelligence

Tactical Intelligence
 is an intelligence product that
provides insight or
understanding, contributing to
decisions on broad strategies,
policies and resources, directed
to achieving long term
organizational objectives
 is an intelligence product
which supports national and
regional managers of line areas in
planning activity and deploying
resources to achieve operational
objectives
 is an intelligence product
which supports line areas and
other operational areas in taking
case- specific action to achieve
compliance or enforcement
objectives
Identifies the problem that the intelligence
process is going to examine.
Several questions to be asked:
 WHY AM I WORKING TOWARDS THIS INTELLIGENCE
PRODUCT?
 WHO IS THE CONSUMER OF MY INTELLIGENCE
PRODUCT?
 WHAT IS THE TASK THAT THE CLIENT WANTS ME TO
ADDRESS?
 WHAT INTELLIGENCE METHODS SHOULD I USE TO
ADDRESS THE TASK?
 WHAT RESOURCES WILL I REQUIRE TO ADDRESS
THE TASK?
 WHERE WILL THOSE RESOURCES COME FROM?
 HOW LONG WILL IT TAKE TO ACHIEVE THE TASK?
Four (4) main categories:

1.Human

2.Field

3.Electronic

4.Scientific
 Types of Information
General Information
General Information or
background information
provides information about
the environment surrounding
the information requirement. It
is general in nature and
discusses the context in
which the information
requirement exists.
Specific Information
Specific Information directly
addresses the information
requirements. This type of
information usually relates to
the entity, event or
phenomenon that is the
subject of the Information
Requirement.
 Types of Information

General Information Specific Information

Open Closed Open Closed

Source Source
Source Source
WHEN WE GATHER INFORMATION
WE NEED TO BE CAREFUL OF
WHETHER IT IS OPEN OR CLOSED
SOURCE INFORMATION, IT MAY
LIMIT THE WAYS WE CAN
DISSEMINATE THE INFORMATION
(PNPR 200-012)
Closed Source information is information that is
confidential and NOT publicly available, such as:

Informant reports

Investigation reports

Kinds of informants:
 Confidential
 Voluntary
 Involuntary
 Special
 usually contain a Security Classification

 In Confidence
 Restricted
 Confidential
 Highly Protected
 Secret
 No Security Classification but there is a
warning or proviso (caveat) that limits its
dissemination to the public.
Open Source information is information
that is PUBLICLY available.

Forms of Open Source Information:

 Raw information
 Information and opinions

 Expert reports

 Technical data
Sources of OSI can include the following:
 Libraries, book stores and publishers
 Internet, Intranets
Specialized data collection and reporting
services
Market research or business intelligence
services
Market research or business intelligence
services
 Professional associations
 Universities or Research Institutes
 Public Interest Groups
THE COLLECTION PHASE FOCUSES ON GATHERING
AND COLLATING INFORMATION

 S T E P S IN THE COLLECTION PHASE:

ANALYZE THE INTELLIGENCE TASK/MISSION AND

IDENTIFY THE INFORMATION REQUIREMENTS
IDENTIFY WHERE THE INFORMATION CAN BE OBTAINED. IN
IDENTIFYING AND SPECIFYING THE INFORMATION
REQUIREMENTS AND METHODS OF COLLECTION, PREPARE
AN INFORMATION COLLECTION PLAN (ICP)
GATHER THE INFORMATION AND COLLATE IT INTO ONE
CENTRAL REPOSITORY
 EVALUATE THE INFORMATION

 DETERMINE THE VALIDITY, RELIABILITY AND

SENSITIVITY
 Ask the right questions in order
to determine the
seriousness of the threat.

 Determine source(s) of information

 Overt Method – is an activity
undertaken to gather information,
which do not attempt to conceal the
existence of those activities or the
Mission. Includes: interviews, surveys,
requesting information, use of police
powers or collecting open source
information
Covert Methods – are activities,
which attempt to collect the information
without revealing the existence of
those activities. Includes: confidential
requests for information, surveillance,
telephone intercepts, listening devices,
informants or undercover operatives
 WHY IT IS VITAL?

BECAUSE, IT WILL DEVELOP

A SYSTEMATIC AND PLANNED
APPROACH TO OUR
COLLECTION OF INFORMATION.
TWO (2) REASONS FOR ADOPTING
THE ICP
1.To ensure that we collect
information in an efficient manner.

2.To ensure that we collect

information in an effective
manner
Steps:

1.the information requirements

of theIntelligence Task/Mission.

2.what information is needed to

becollected?
Steps:

3.who we will collect this

information from?

4.how we will collect this

information?
Steps:

5.who we will use to collect this

information?

6.when they should collect this

information?
SHORT STATEMENT OF THE
MISSION/INTELLIGENCE TASK

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE

BACKGROUND TO THE MISSION

THE LIST OF INFORMATION

REQUIREMENTS

LIST OF THE SOURCES AND AGENCIES

THAT NEED TO CONSULTED
METHODS OF COLLECTION THAT WILL
BE USED TO GATHER THIS INFORMATION

LIST OF WHO WILL COLLECT THE

INFORMATION AND THE TIME FRAMES IN
WHICH THEY SHOULD COLLECT THE
INFORMATION

DETAILS OF ANY FACTORS THAT MAY

AFFECT THE COLLECTION OF
 The Collection plan is a dynamic tool used
to coordinate and integrate the efforts of all
collection units and agencies. It is merely a
management tool to assist the Collection
Manager in organizing his thought processes.
The Collection Plan is continually revised as
required. It is a mental process and there is
no prescribed format. It is merely an AID and
NOT a substitute for thinking
 Info Type of Info Source or Collection Collection
Requirement Agency Method Task

Who are the General: 1. PNP IG Confidential MBG

current leaders -Background 2. TF Sanglahi Requests Researcher to
of the MBG Assessments (PIRs, EEIs) complete
3. PRO ARMM
-material on 12/25/06
4. PRO 11
ranks &
5. IRAD, J2
structure
within MBG

Specific: 1. PNP IG Confidential MBG

-List of 2. CTIC, NICA Requests Researcher to
members Task: complete
3. Informants
-Details of Informant 03/16/06
4. Surveillance
members Handler AA to
-Rank of Task: complete by
Surveillance 12/24/06
members
Team Technical
Team to
complete
12/24/06
PROBLEM
THE NUMBER OF INQUIRIES UNDERTAKEN
DURING THE INTELLIGENCE PROCESS CAN BE
SIGNIFICANT. OFTEN WE WILL FORGET WHAT
INFORMATION WE HAVE REQUESTED OR
OVERLOOKED AND SOURCES OR AGENCIES
THAT WE HAD NOT YET CONSIDERED.
 Type of Collector Date Risk Priority Positive/ Index
Info
Negative

Sub Recvd

Profile of the PNP IG 03/01/06 03/16/06 Low Urgent Positive C:\\docu

MBG
ments\m

bg\profil
e.word
FOCUSES ON INTERPRETING THE INTELLIGENCE AND
INFORMATION AND DEVELOPING INFERENCES ABOUT
WE BELIEVE IS HAPPENING
IT STARTS BY:

 BREAKING DOWN THE INFORMATION INTO ITS

BASIC AND STUDYING THE CONNECTIONS BETWEEN
THOSE ELEMENTS
 PULL THE INFORMATION TOGETHER,
CONNECTING PIECES OF INFORMATION, AND DEVELOP
AN INFERENCE ON WHAT THE INFORMATION TELL US
 INFERENCE IS TESTED FOR CONSISTENCY AND
CREDIBILITY, CONSTANTLY BEING COMPARED WITH NEW
INFORMATION AS IT COMES INTO THE PROCESS
 FORMULATE RECOMMENDATIONS OR OPTIONS
Two (2) Steps in the Processing
of Information:
 Recording

 Evaluation
 COLLATE AND
Evaluate new
SORT ALL
Re-Evaluate information
AVAILABLE
and Revise against old
INFORMATION
Inferences information

CONDUCT
FIRST Collect further
ASSESSMENT Information
and
DEVELOP Intelligence
INITIAL
INFERENCES

ARE THERE Prepare a new

INFORMATION Information
GAPS? YES Collection

DEVELOP FINAL INFERENCES

AND INTELLIGENCE
RECOMMENDATION
Recording of Information

Reduction of information to writing or some other

form of graphical representation and the arranging of
information into groups of related items.

Means of recording information:

 Intelligence Journal
 Intelligence Workbook
 Situation Map
 Watch Lists/OB/Target Lists
 Identification Files
Evaluation of Information

Determination of the pertinence,

reliability and accuracy of the information;
determination of the pertinence or
significance of the information relative to
the operation, reliability of the sources or
agency, and accuracy of the information.
Reliability of source (Admiralty Scale)
Value Summary Index Definition

A Completely Reliable Refers to a Source or

Agency about whom there
is not doubt of its
reliability, trustworthiness
or competence. Information
supplied by a Source or
Agency that has in the past
proved to reliable at all
times
Reliability of source (Admiralty Scale)
Value Summary Index Definition

B Usually Reliable Refers to a Source or Agency

about whom there may be some
doubt as to its reliability,
trustworthiness or competency.
However, information obtained
from this source or agency in the
past has in the majority of
instances proved to be reliable
Reliability of source (Admiralty Scale)
Value Summary Index Definition

C Fairly Reliable Refers to a Source or Agency

about whom there is usually doubt
as to its reliability and
trustworthiness. Information
obtained from this source or
agency in the past, has proved
reliable in a moderate number of
cases.
Reliability of source (Admiralty Scale)
Value Summary Index Definition

D Not usually reliable Refers to a Source or Agency

about whom there is doubt as to
its reliability and trustworthiness.
Information supplied in the past,
is not reliable, although
occasionally valid reports have
been submitted.
Reliability of source (Admiralty Scale)
Value Summary Index Definition

E Not reliable Refers to a Source or Agency

about whom there is great doubt
as to its reliability and
trustworthiness. Past experience
has proved it to be unreliable, it
doesn’t however prevent such a
Source or Agency providing
credible information in the future.
Reliability of source (Admiralty Scale)
Value Summary Index Definition

F Cannot be Judged Refers to a Source or Agency

whose reliability has not been
determined by either experience
or investigation. There is no way
of knowing its authenticity,
trustworthiness or competency.
Validity/Accuracy of Information
Value Summary Index Definition

1 Refers to information which is

Confirmed substantiated or confirmed by
independent sources or agencies;
the information is logical within
itself and agrees with other
information on the same subject.
Validity/Accuracy of Information
Value Summary Index Definition

2 Probably True Refers to information which gives

every indication of being accurate
but which has not been confirmed;
the information is logical within
itself and agrees with other
information on the same subject.
Validity/Accuracy of Information

Value Summary Index Definition

3 Possibly True Refers to information which has

been neither confirmed nor
contradicted; the indications are
that the information concurs
somewhat with the general body of
information and is reasonably
logical but not yet capable of
confirmation.
Validity/Accuracy of Information

Value Summary Index Definition

4 Doubtfully True Refers to information, which is

believed to be unlikely, although
the elements of possibility are not
excluded. Information has not been
contradicted nor is it logical
within itself. The information is
not in total disagreement with
other information on the same
subject.
 Validity/Accuracy of Information
Value Summary Index Definition

5 Improbable report Refers to information, which

contradicted by other data; is logical
within itself and in disagreement
with the general body of information
on the same subject.

6 Truth cannot be judged Refers to the information, the truth

which cannot be judged at the same
time because of the lack of
knowledge on the same subject
Sources of Information

Value Summary Index

T Direct observation by the Commander of a Unit

U Report by a penetration agent or resident agent

V Report by an AFP trooper or PNP personnel in

encounter or operation
Sources of Information
Value Summary Index
W Interrogation of a captured enemy agent or foreigner

X Observation by a Government or civilian employee or

official

Y Observation by a member of a populace

Z Documentary
Evaluating the Information

To evaluate the source properly we need

to ask ourselves two important questions:

Where did the source or Agency get

this information?

Why did they provide me with this

information?
Validity of the Information
Triangulation of Information:
Source
or
Agency

Confirm or deny

Information
Confirm or deny
Confirm or deny

Source Source
or or
Agency Agency
TO COMMUNICATE OUR FINDINGS AND
RECOMMENDATION EITHER BY ORAL OR WRITTEN
REPORT

THREE (3) BASIC WAYS TO COMMUNICATE:

 WRITTEN INTELLIGENCE REPORT

 ORAL BRIEFINGS

 ELECTRONIC MEANS
Descriptive

Explanatory

Predictive
 is an information acquired by an
organization which, because of its
confidentiality, the confidentiality of
the means by which the information
was derived, may allow an
organization to exploit to its
advantage.
Descriptive – no predictive
or judgmental analysis.
Explanatory – seek to explain
why anincident occurred

Predictive – forward looking

and attempt to forecast
an event or situation
Should be comprehensive

Analysis must be valid

Must be timely
Importance of Risk Assessment:

In the intelligence environment,

RISK ASSESSMENT is a
Technique used to introduce
system into analytical thinking
about possibleundesirable
events.
 2. Assess the Risk

1. Identify the Risk 3. Treat the Risk

4. Review
 HARM
HIGH MEDIUM LOW
HIGH EXTREME MEDIUM MEDIUM
THREAT MEDIUM MEDIUM MEDIUM NEGLIGIBLE
LOW MEDIUM NEGLIGIBLE NEGLIGIBLE
 RISK

HARM THREAT

Estimation of the
consequences of
the event Estimation of the
likelihood of
the adverse
Threats are caused by something or someone

The causes of adverse events are the agents of

threat

Adverse events have to threaten something. The

target or thing being threatened is the object at
risk.
The AIM of a threat assessment:

“What is the threat to an

object, posed by an agent?”
Once the question has been properly posed, it is then
possible to assess the potential harm to the object
against the likelihood of the threat.
 THREAT

INTENT CAPABILITY

DESIRE EXPECTATION KNOWLEDGE RESOURCES

 Explanatory Product
Executive Summary
The executivesummary
should provide the reader with
the critical findings and
judgments of the
assessment.
SITUATION UPDATE
This portion must contain the
general presentation of the
intelligence report.

Avoid using long and complex

sentences.
ANALYSIS/ASSESSMENT
The analysis must be
briefed but give the central
meaning of the situation
update. This portion must
containinformation vital tothe
arguments being drawn.