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5.1. Introduction To Probability
5.1. Introduction To Probability
5.1. Introduction To Probability
We will discuss
• This video
• random experiment,
• sample space,
• Simple event,
• event,
• Different approached to assigning probabilities
• Next videos
• union of events,
• intersection of events,
• complement of an event, and
• mutually exclusive events
Probabilities: Key concepts
Examples
Experiment Outcomes
Record the quality of service at the customer service Very poor, poor, unsure, reasonable, good, very
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Sample Space
A list of all possible outcomes of a random experiment is
called a sample space.
Example:
• Flip a coin: S = {Head, Tail}
• Quality of service: S = {Very poor, poor, unsure, reasonable, good, very
good}
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Simple events
• The individual outcomes are called simple events.
Events
An event is any collection of one or more possible outcomes.
Example
Our objective is to determine P(A), the probability that event A will occur.
Our objective is to determine P(A), the probability that event A will occur.
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Approaches to Assigning Probabilities…
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Classical Approach…
If an experiment has n possible outcomes, this method would
assign a probability of 1/n to each outcome.
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Relative Frequency Approach…
P(cars sold)
Daily Number
sales of Days = relative
frequencies 0.35
∑ =200 ∑ = 1.00
P(A)=?
P(cars sold)
Daily Number
sales of Days = relative 0.35
frequencies
0.25
0 10 10/200 = 0.05 0.20
0.15
1 30 30/200 = 0.15
0.05
2 70 70/200 = 0.35
3 50 50/200 = 0.25
0 1 2 3 4 X
4 40 40/200 = 0.20
∑ =200 ∑ = 1.00
Example:
• P(Head) =0.5, P(Tail) = 0.5
• P(Head) +P(Tail) = 1
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