Population Forecasting

INTRODUCTION

• It means predicting the future population.

• Design of water supply and sanitation scheme is based

on the projected population of a particular city,
estimated for the design period.

• Any underestimated value will make system

inadequate for the purpose intended; similarly
overestimated value will make it costly.
INTRODUCTION

 We never consider exact values because it requires

lots of time and money as it involves the
consideration of the factors like
 Birth Rate
 Death Rate
 Democratic Factors
 Regional Factors etc.

 Hence we always go for mathematical approximation

which is very much close to the reality.
INTRODUCTION

 For mathematical approximation we require PAST

GROWTH.

 Census department conduct survey of population

growth of past in every 10 years (decades)
METHODS OF POPULATION FORECASTING

Generally following methods are used for population

forecasting :
1. Arithmetical Increase Method
2. Geometrical Increase Method
3. Incremental Increase Method
4. Decrease Rate Of Growth Method
5. Simple Graphical Method
6. Graphical Comparison Method
7. Master plan method
8. Apportionment/zoning Method
9. Logistic curve Method
ARITHMETICAL INCREASE METHOD
This method is based on the assumption that the rate of
change of population with time is constant.
 This method is suitable for large and old city with
considerable development. If it is used for small,
average or comparatively new cities, it will give lower
population estimate than actual value.
 In this method the average increase in population per
decade is calculated from the past census reports.
This increase is added to the present population to
find out the population of the next decade.
 Thus, it is assumed that the population is increasing at
constant
ARITHMETICAL INCREASE METHOD
ARITHMETICAL INCREASE METHOD

Example: 1

Predict the population for the year 2021, 2031, and 2041
from the following population data.

Year 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011

Population 8,58,545 10,15,672 12,01,553 16,91,538 20,77,820 25,85,862
ARITHMETICAL INCREASE METHOD

Solution:

Year Population Increment

1961 8,58,545 -
1971 10,15,672 1,57,127
1981 12,01,553 1,85,881
1991 16,91,538 4,89,985
2001 20,77,820 3,86,282
2011 25,85,862 5,08,042
ARITHMETICAL INCREASE METHOD

 Average Increment = 3,45,463.

 Population in year 2021 is,
 P2021 = 2585862 + 345463 x 1 = 2931325.
 Similarly,
 P2031 = 2585862 + 345463 x 2 = 3276788.
 P2041 = 2585862 + 345463 x 3 = 3622251
Geometrical Increase
Method
(GEOMETRICAL PROGRESSION METHOD)

 Inthis method the percentage increase in population from decade to

decade is assumed to remain constant.

 Geometric mean increase is used to find out the future increment in

population.

 Since this method gives higher values and hence should be applied
for a new industrial town at the beginning of development for only
few decades.
GEOMETRICAL INCREASE METHOD

Example:
Considering data given in example 1 predict the
population for the year 2021, 2031, and 2041
Using geometrical progression method.
Solution:
GEOMETRICAL INCREASE METHOD

Ig = (0.18+0.18+0.40+0.23+0.24)/5 = 0.246

Population in year 2021 = 2585862 * (1 + 0.246) 1

= 3221984
Similarly calculate population for 2031 and 2041
INCREMENTAL INCREASE METHOD

 In this method increment in arithmetical increase is

determined from the past decades and the average
of that increment is added to the average increase.

 This method is modification of arithmetical

increase method and it is suitable for an average
size town under normal condition where the
growth rate is found to be in increasing order.
INCREMENTAL INCREASE METHOD

 While adopting this method the increase in

increment is considered for calculating future
population.

 The incremental increase is determined for each

decade from the past population and the average
value is added to the present population along with
the average rate of increase.
INCREMENTAL INCREASE METHOD

Population after nth decade is Ps= P+ nX+(n(n+1)/2)* Y

Where Pn =Population after nth decade
X= average increase
Y = incremental increase
INCREMENTAL INCREASE METHOD

Example
INCREMENTAL INCREASE METHOD
GRAPHICAL METHOD

 In this method, the populations of last few decades

are correctly plotted to a suitable scale on graph.
 The population curve is smoothly extended for
getting future population.
 This extension should be done carefully and it
requires proper experience and judgment.
 The best way of applying this method is to extend
the curve by comparing with population curve of
some other similar cities having the similar growth
condition
GRAPHICAL METHOD
COMPARITIVE GRAPHICAL METHOD

 In this method the census populations of cities

already developed under similar conditions are
plotted.

 The curve of past population of the city under

consideration is plotted on the same graph.

 The curve is extended carefully by comparing with

the population curve of some similar cities having
the similar condition of growth.
COMPARITIVE GRAPHICAL METHOD

 The advantage of this method is that the future

population can be predicted from the present
population even in the absence of some of the past
census report.

 Difficult to find the identical cities with respect to

population growth.
MASTER PLAN METHOD
 The big and metropolitan cities are generally not developed in haphazard
manner, but are planned and regulated by local bodies according to master
plan.

 The master plan is prepared for next 25 to 30 years for the city.

 According to the master plan the city is divided into various zones such as
residence, commerce and industry.

 The population densities are fixed for various zones in the master plan.

 From this population density total water demand and wastewater generation
for that zone can be worked out.

 By this method it is very easy to access precisely the design population.

LOGISTIC CURVE METHOD
 This method is used when the growth rate of population due to
births, deaths and migrations takes place under normal situation
and it is not subjected to any extraordinary changes like epidemic,
war, earth quake or any natural disaster, etc., and the population
follows the growth curve characteristics of living things within
limited space and economic opportunity.

 If the population of a city is plotted with respect to time, the

curve so obtained under normal condition looks like S-shaped
curve and is known as logistic curve
LOGISTIC CURVE METHOD
LOGISTIC CURVE
• P= Ps/(1 + e (a+bt) )

• Ps= 2P0P1P2-P12(P0+P2)/(P0P2-P12)

• a = log e (Ps- P0)/ P0

• b = 1/n log e ( P0 (PS-P1)/P1(PS-P0)

Soluti
on
Step: To find out the increment from the
1 population data
Step2 : To find the average increment/rate of change of population wrt
time from the population increment
Step3 : to estimate the population at the respective year from
the formula of arithmetic increase method

Pn = P + n.C
Forecast the population for the year 2021, 2031 and
2041 using Geometrical progression method
Step 2 : to estimate the Geometrical increase rate
of growth

Step 3: To find out geometric mean (r g

or Ig)
rg =( 18 + 18 + 41 + 23 + 20 ) / 5
= 23.5 %
Step 4:
Population forecasting
INCREMENTAL INCREASE
METHOD

Step 1: Extract the

population data
Step: 2 Find the increment in population
(X)
Step: 3 Find total and average of increase
and incremental increase
Step: 4
Population forecasting
CONCLUSION

• Future population is very important factor to be

considered before design of water supply scheme.
• Any underestimated value will make system
inadequate for the purpose intended; similarly
overestimated value will make it costly.
• Hence future population estimation should be
carried out properly.
• Values obtained by mathematical methods are not
exact values but they are very close to the reality.