Decision Making

And
Problem solving.
Objectives

 Define decision ,decision making , problem

solving.
 List the five steps in the decision making
process.
 Describe at least six techniques to increase
creativity.
 Identify at least five decision making tools.
MANAGERIAL ROLES
(Mintzberg):

 Interpersonal: figureheads &

leaders
 Informational: receive;
disseminate critical info
 Decisional: initiate activities;
handle disturbances; allocate
resources; negotiate conflicts
definition
 Decision : is a solution chosen from among
alternatives .
 Decision-making process : is the process of
selecting an alternative course of action that
will solve a problem.
 Problem solving: is the process of taking
corrective action in order to meet objectives.
Other Definitions Of Decision Making

 The cognitive process of reaching a decision.

 Choosing between alternative courses of
action using cognitive processes - memory,
thinking, evaluation, etc
 The process of mapping the likely
consequences of decisions, working out the
importance of individual factors, and choosing
the best course of action to take.
Decision making and
Problem-Solving Steps:

 Define the problem

 Gather information
 Develop alternatives
 Weigh alternatives
 Select the best alternative
 Implement the solution
 Monitor progress and follow up
 Step 1: Define the problem and analyze
the situation and Identify decision criteria
 To express the issue in a clear, one-
sentence problem statement that .
 Identify root causes, limiting assumptions,
system and organizational boundaries and
interfaces.
 Identify resources.
Gathering Information
Exploration of the
Problem
.

 This is the initial activity of decision-

making in which you think about all of
the possibilities related to the problem
and the decision.
Identification of Feasible Alternatives
 Alternatives: Optional courses of action from
which a decision maker is expected to choose
that are obtained from memory, vendor
search, research and development,.
 Alternatives differ in their nature or character,
not only in quantitative details. If A is
selected, B cannot be chosen.
Criteria
 Criteria: the characteristics or requirements
that each alternative must possess to a
greater or lesser extent. Usually the
alternatives are rated on how well they
possess each criterion.
 These decision criteria identify what will guide
the decision-making process. They are the
important facts relevant to the problem as
defined .
 There is no single best criterion for decision making
where a perfect knowledge is present.
Criteria
 It is important that decision criteria be
established early in the problem solving
process .
 These facts can be tangible (work
assignments, the work schedules, or
work orders ) as well as intangible
(morale, motivation, and personal feelings
and perceptions).
 The manager must identify all workable
alternative solutions for resolving the
problem.
Workable prevents alternative solutions that
are too expensive, too time-consuming, or too
elaborate.
 Alternatives offer different approaches for
changing the initial condition into the
desired condition..
 These are the possibilities one has to
choose from. Alternatives can be
identified (that is, searched for and
located) or even developed (created
where they did not previously exist)
Choose The Most Desirable
Alternative
 The number and quality of alternatives
depend largely on on the creativity and
productivity of managers and their staff.
 Manager could assess the potential
consequences of each alternative .
 Uncertainty is a state in which the decision-
maker judges the different possible outcomes
of each alternative but lacks any feeling for
their probabilities of success.
ORGANIZATIONAL MODELS OF
DECISION MAKING
 RATIONAL : Maximize organization’s benefits and common goals
by selecting the best solution to achieve the desired outcomes.
 Disadvantage : unrealistic expectations, long time
 BUREAUCRATIC: Follow standard operating procedures
(SOP),routine,APPS,formal .
 Disadvantage: limited alternative solutions ,depends on history.
 POLITICAL: Key groups compete and bargain ,win-win
situations,majority and negotiations.
 Disadvantage: limited alternative solutions
 “GARBAGE CAN”: Organizations not rational; solutions
accidental
LEVELS OF DECISION MAKING
 STRATEGIC: Long-term objectives;
resources; policies
 MANAGEMENT CONTROL: Monitor use of
resources; performance
 KNOWLEDGE-BASED: Evaluate potential
innovations; knowledge
 OPERATIONAL: How to carry out
specific day-to-day tasks
Decision Making Techniques

 The techniques in this chapter help you

to make the best decisions possible with
the information you have available. With
these tools you will be able to map out
the likely consequences of decisions,
work out the importance of individual
factors, and choose the best course of
action to take.
 Pareto Analysis Selecting the most
important changes to make. Often
better known as “The 80/20 Rule,”
Pareto helps you locate where you can
derive the greatest benefit by
expending the least relative effort (or
cost or resources or what have you).
 Paired Comparison Analysis Evaluating
the relative importance of different
options
 Grid Analysis Selecting between good
options. Evaluate a larger set of
options based on numerous criteria,
then weight the importance of each
criterion to derive the best choice.

 Decision Trees Choosing between

options by projecting likely outcomes
 PMI Weighing the pros and cons
of a decision
 Force Field Analysis Analyzing the
pressures for and against change
 Six Thinking Hats Looking at a
decision from all points of view
 Cost/Benefit Analysis Seeing
whether a change is worth making
 Multivoting: Narrows a large list of
possibilities to a smaller list of the top
priorities or to a final selection; allows
an item that is favored by all, but not
the top choice of any, to rise to the top.
 Decision matrix: Evaluates and
prioritizes a list of options, using pre-
determined weighted criteria.
Barriers to effective clinical
decision making in nursing
 Experience and knowledge
 Creative thinking
 Self Concept
 Stress
 Inadequate Staffing
 Interpersonal Conflict
Decision Strategies

 four main decision making strategies:

 rational

 intuitive

 recognition primed

 the Ultimate Decision Making strategy

Rational decision making models
 Rational decision making models involve
a cognitive process where each step
follows in a logical order from the one
before. By cognitive, I mean it is based
on thinking through and weighing up
the alternatives to come up with the
best potential result
 Pros and cons :A rational decision
making model presupposes that there is
one best outcome. Because of this it
is sometimes called an optimizing
decision making model. The search for
perfection is frequently a factor in
actually delaying making a decision.
 Intuitive decision strategies indicate that there
may be no rationale or logic behind the choices
made.
 Some people consider these decisions to be
unlikely coincidences, lucky guesses, or some kind
of new-age hocus-pocus. Some researchers are
even studying the logic behind the intuitive
decision making models!
 A good plan, executed now, is better than a
perfect plan next week."
 Gary Klein's recognition primed decision
model is a combination of the first two.
Intuition is used to generate a workable
course of action and then you consider it
logically to confirm it as appropriate.
 The Ultimate Decision Making model put
forward on this site goes beyond Klein's
model in that it teaches you your own
personal decision making signals that are
built into your own biology.
 Minimax: the idea is to minimise the
maximum possible loss. Basically you
determine what the worst outcome of each
alternative is and go for 'the best of a bad
lot'. The attention is obviously on minimizing
the worst that can happen.
 this decision making strategy is designed to
choose the alternative with the least chance
of disaster.
 Maximax: the idea here is to maximise
the maximum outcome, ie., choose your
alternative with the best potential
outcome. Also called decisions under
uncertainty because several outcomes
may occur, but the probabilities of the
outcomes are not known. People who
enjoy risk use these decision making
strategies.
 Risk minimization principle: is about
choosing the alternative with the best chance
of an acceptable outcome. At first, this may
seem like maximax, but the latter has to do
with best outcome, this one has to do with
best chance of a favorable outcome.
 Loss avoidance principle: choosing the
alternative with the lowest possibility of loss.
Creative Thinking Techniques
 Brainstorming:is an idea generating
technique.
 Think freely. Freewheeling, wild
thoughts are fine.
 Checklists:is a standard collection of
items (things, verbs, questions,
approaches, attributes) used to remind
the creative thinker of possible ways to
approach a problem or shape a solution.