MARKOV CHAIN

A, B and C are three towns. Each year:

10% of the residents of A move to B
30% of the residents of A move to C
20% of the residents of B move to A
30% of the residents of B move to C
20% of the residents of C move to A
20% of the residents of C move to B

Everybody else stays put. No one dies. No one is born.

 B
A A, B, and C are
three towns.

10 people live in A

20 people live in B

15 people live in C
C
 B
A .10

.20
Each year
10% of the residents of A
move to B

and
20% of the residents
of A move to C

C
 B
A .10

.20

.20
Each year
20% of the residents of B
move to A .30

and
30% of the residents
of B move to C

C
 B
A .10

.20

.20
Each year .20
20% of the residents of C
move to A .30

and .20
20% of the residents
of C move to B

C
 B
A .10

.20

.20
.20

.30

.20

C
 B
A .10

.20

.20
.20

.30

.20

C
 B
A .10

.20

.20
.20

.30

.20

C
 B
A

10
20

B
A .10
15 .20
C
This year .20
14 .20 14
Next year
.30

.20
Where will everyone be in 10 years?

17 C
 B
A .10

.20

.20
.20

.30

.20

C
 B
A .10
.20

.20
.20 .30
An+1 = .7An
.20

C
 B
A .10
.20

.20
.20 .30
An+1 = .7An + .2Bn + .2Cn
.20

C
 B
A .10
.20

.20
.20 .30
An+1 = .7An + .2Bn + .2Cn
.20
Bn+1 = .1An + .5Bn + .2Cn

C
 B
A .10
.20

.20
.20 .30
An+1 = .7An + .2Bn + .2Cn
.20
Bn+1 = .1An + .5Bn + .2Cn

Cn+1 = .2An + .3Bn + .6Cn

C
 B
A .10
.20

.20
.20 .30
An+1 = .7An + .2Bn + .2Cn
 .7 .2 .2  An 
  .20
Bn+1 = .1An + .5Bn + .2Cn   .1 .5 .2  Bn 
 .2 .3 .6  C 
Cn+1 = .2An + .3Bn + .6Cn
 C
 n
Note: .7+.1+.2 = 1. This accounts for 100% of those in town A in year n

Note: .2+.5+.3 = 1. This accounts for 100% of those in town B in year n

Note: .2+.2+.6 = 1. This accounts for 100% of those in town C in year n

An+1 = .7An + .2Bn + .2Cn  .7 .2 .2  An 

  
Bn+1 = .1An + .5Bn + .2Cn   .1 .5 .2  Bn 
 .2 .3 .6  C 
Cn+1 = .2An + .3Bn + .6Cn   n 
  An 1   .7 .2 .2  An 
    
 Bn 1    .1 .5 .2  Bn 
 C   .2 .3 .6  C 
 n 1    n 

vn 1  Mvn
v1  Mv0
v2  Mv1  M v0
2

v3  Mv2  M v1 2
 M v0
3

v4  Mv3  M v2 2
 M v1 3
 M v0
4
 An 1   .7 .2 .2  An 
    
 Bn 1    .1 .5 .2  Bn 
 C   .2 .3 .6  C 
 n 1    n 

vn 1  Mvn

vn  M v0 n
 Because the sum of the numbers in each column of M is 1,

1 is an eigenvalue for M, and

An eigenvector belonging to 1 will describe stable proportions.

The null space of 1I – M = the null space of

1 0 0  .7 .2 .2   .3  .2  .2 
     
0 1 0 -  .1 .5 .2  =   .1 .5  .2 
0 0 1  .2 .3 .6    .2  .3 .4 
     
  .3  .2  .2  14 
The null space of   =  
  .1 .5  .2   8 
  .2  .3 .4  13 
 

Suppose there are this year 140 people in A, 80 people in B, and

130 people in C. How many will be in each town next year?

 .7 .2 .2 140 
  
 .1 .5 .2  80   ?
 .2 .3 .6 130 
  