Nuclear Proliferation

Nuclear Safety and Security

Lecture by: Fahad Shah Rashdi

■ Nuclear Proliferation
■ North Korean Nuclear Crisis
■ Iran Nuclear Deal
■ History of Nuclear Programme of Pakistan and India
■ Safety and Security of Pakistan Nuclear Programme
Nuclear Proliferation
History

■ 1950s and 60s:

– Eisenhower’s Atoms for Peace Initiative
– Creation of IAEA and its safeguards
– Expansion of peaceful use of energy
■ 1968: Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
– 1970: entered into force
NPT: The Three Pillars

1. Non-proliferation
2. The peaceful use of nuclear energy
3. disarmament
North
Korean
Nuclear
Crisis
Consequences of the Korean
Proliferation
■ Tensions
■ Nuclear Escalation
■ Miscalculation
World Efforts to Contain the Programme:

■ UNSC Sanctions and Resolutions: UNSCR 1695 and UNSCR

2270
■ The Six-Party Talks
– 2003
– Suspended since 2009
■ Role of China?
Main Points

■ Uranium Enrichment:
– 6104 from 20,000
■ Uranium Stockpile
– 300kg from 10,000kg
■ Breakout time:
– 1 year from 2-3 months
■ Inspection
What Iran Will Gain?
For Iran:

■ Iran can increase oil exports revenue by $10bn

■ $30bn of frozen foreign reserves to be brought back
■ Boost GDP to 5%
Political Effects

■ US-Iran Tensions Continue

■ Fears Rise in the Middle East
■ Fears over intervention
■ Business relationships
Effects: Non-proliferation

■ Iran Continues to:

– Allow continuous monitoring
– Decommission Reactor
– Reduce uranium enrichment for 10 years
– Limit uranium enrichment for 15 years
– Accept UN oversight
 HISTORY OF
INDIAN NUCLEAR
PROGRAMME
Developing a Peaceful Nuclear Program: 1947-1974

■ Primary focus: the production of inexpensive

electricity
■ PNE tested in 1974
– Partly security considerations based
The Slow Path Towards Weaponization: 1974-1998
India as a Declared Nuclear Power: 1998 to the
Present
 HISTORY OF
PAKISTAN
NUCLEAR
PROGRAMME
Establishing a Nuclear Programme:
1956-74
■ Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission 1956
■ Post-1971 war efforts
■ India test nuclear bomb in 1974
A. Q. Khan’s Contribution: 1975-98

■ Khan asserts Pakistan acquired the capability to

assemble a nuclear device by 1984
■ Afghan War 1979 and the Pressler Amendment
■ Assistance from China
Pakistan as a Declared Nuclear Power: 1998-present

■ India tested nuclear weapons in May 1998

■ 1998: first plutonium production reactor at
Khushab commissioned
Safety and Security

■ Threats to the safety and security of Pakistan Nuclear

weapons
1. Terrorists
2. USA, India and Israel
3. Internal Radical Islamists
4. Collaboration of any of these
Safety and Security of Nuclear
Weapons of Pakistan
1. 10-member National Command Authority (NCA) in charge of all the
Nuclear facilities
2. Standard ‘two men rule’ to authenticate access to nuclear release codes
3. Nuclear warheads ‘de-mated’ from missiles or bomb casings and put
together only with the NCA consent
4. Own version of ‘permissive Action Links’ or PALs, a sophisticated
type of lock the US used to prevent unauthorized launching
5. A comprehensive intrusive Personnel Reliability system (along the
lines of one in the US) that monitors employees, before, during and after
employment
6. A 10,000-members Security Force, led by a two-star
General/(three-star), dedicated to guarding the Nuclear facilities
7. Possible ‘dummy warheads’ to deter raids, by internal and
external threats
8. Physical security:
– Highly trained special forces, air defence systems, no fly zones,
fencing of structures, cameras, sensors, check posts, and counter
intelligence teams
9. Transportation of NWs and material:
– The Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Materials
ratified in Oct 2000
– The 2004 Export Control Act
10. The Civilian side of Pakistan’s nuclear security is governed by the
Pakistan Nuclear Regulatory Authority (PNRA) established in 2001