Principles of Seasonal Climate Prediction

Md. Omar Faruq

Bangladesh Meteorological Department
 Spot the Ball Competition
• Where is the ball now?
• Where will the ball be in 20 seconds?
• Who will win the match?

IFAD Training Workshop on Seasonal Climate Forecasting

2
Using the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT)
 Sources of Predictability
• We can make forecasts at different timescales because there
are different reasons why the predictions can work:
– days: current weather
– months: sea-surface temperatures
– years: sub-surface ocean temperatures
– decades: atmospheric composition

IFAD Training Workshop on Seasonal Climate Forecasting

3
Using the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT)
 El Niño and global climate
• Sea-surface temperatures, especially in the equatorial Pacific, can
affect the frequency and intensity of different weather patterns

Typical El Niño impact during December - February

IFAD Training Workshop on Seasonal Climate Forecasting
4
Using the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT)
 Bangladesh SON rainfall and SSTs
• Correlation between late monsoon rainfall in Bangladesh and
global sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), 1971 – 2010.

IFAD Training Workshop on Seasonal Climate Forecasting

5
Using the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT)
 Seasonal prediction
• We make seasonal forecasts by predicting the statistics of
weather rather than the actual weather at any specific
time.
– Based on historical relationships
– By looking at the statistics of lots of very long-range
weather forecasts, ideally from lots of different
models

IFAD Training Workshop on Seasonal Climate Forecasting

6
Using the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT)
 Seasonal forecast formats
Most seasonal forecasts are in one of two classes:
1. A (set of) deterministic forecast(s) – outputs from a
dynamical or statistical model.

These types of forecasts are provided by WMO Global

Producing Centres (GPCs).

IFAD Training Workshop on Seasonal Climate Forecasting

7
Using the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT)
 Seasonal forecast formats
2. Maps showing
probabilities of the
verification falling
within one of multiple
categories.

These types of
forecasts are typical of
RCOFs and national
forecasts.

IFAD Training Workshop on Seasonal Climate Forecasting

8
Using the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT)
 Seasonal forecasting I: empirical
Area-average rainfall for 21° – 27°N, 88° – 93°E (Bangladesh)

IFAD Training Workshop on Seasonal Climate Forecasting

9
Using the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT)
 Seasonal forecasting I: empirical
Area-average SSTs for 0° – 30°N, 75° – 105°E (NE Indian Ocean)

IFAD Training Workshop on Seasonal Climate Forecasting

10
Using the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT)
 Seasonal forecasting II: dynamical
• ECHAM4.5 rainfall for 21° – 27°N, 88° – 93°E (Bangladesh)

IFAD Training Workshop on Seasonal Climate Forecasting

11
Using the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT)
 Linear Regression
We can use simple linear regression to predict rainfall using a
single predictor such as NE Indian Ocean SSTs.
yˆ  0  1NE_IO
r  0.32
 0  3986 mm
1  157

Sep - Nov NE Indian

Ocean SSTs as a
predictor of 1971 – 2010
rainfall over Bangladesh

IFAD Training Workshop on Seasonal Climate Forecasting

12
Using the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT)
 Prediction errors
Predictions should take account of past errors:

rain  578  122 mm

IFAD Training Workshop on Seasonal Climate Forecasting

13
Using the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT)
 Exercise
• Using the SON NE Indian Ocean index, how well can we
predict SON rainfall for Bangladesh (use MLR)? Compare the
goodness index with the correlation.
• Repeat using preceding Indian Ocean SSTs. How much does
the skill weaken?
• Repeat using different rainfall seasons, and the NINO3.4 SST
index as predictors, how well can we predict rainfall for
Bangladesh for different seasons?
• Repeat for the best predictors using the gridded data for
Bangladesh as predictands. Where is the correlation
strongest, and at what time of year?

IFAD Training Workshop on Seasonal Climate Forecasting

14
Using the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT)
Thank You