Statistics and Probability Theory

MTH-262
Topic: Discrete and Continuous probability
Distributions
Binomial & Hypergeometric Probability Distribution
(Type of Discrete Probability Distribution)

Department of Computer Sciences

COMSATS UNIVERSITY ISLAMABAD, VEHARI
CAMPUS
Random Variable
A random variable is a variable whose value is determined by the
outcome of a random experiment.
Discrete Random Variable
A random variable that assumes countable values is called a discrete
random variable.
Here are some other examples of discrete random variables:
1. The number of cars sold at a dealership during a given month
2. The number of houses in a certain block
3. The number of fish caught on a fishing trip
4. The number of complaints received at the office of an airline on a
given day
5. The number of customers who visit a bank during any given hour
6. The number of heads obtained in three tosses of a coin
Continuous Random Variable
A random variable that can assume any value contained in one or more intervals is called a continuous
random variable.
Explanation :
Because the number of values contained in any interval is infinite, the possible number of values that a
continuous random variable can assume is also infinite. Moreover, we cannot count these values. Consider
the life of a battery. We can measure it as precisely as we want.
For instance, the life of this battery may be 40 hours, or 40.25 hours, or 40.247 hours. Assume that the
maximum life of a battery is 200 hours. Let x denote the life of a randomly selected battery of this kind.
Then, x can assume any value in the interval 0 to 200. Consequently, x is a continuous random variable. As
shown in the diagram, every point on the line representing the interval 0 to 200 gives a possible value of x.

The following are some examples of continuous random variables:

1. The length of a room
2. The time taken to commute from home to work
3. The amount of milk in a gallon (note that we do not expect “a gallon” to contain exactly one gallon of
milk but either slightly more or slightly less than one gallon).
4. The weight of a fish
5. The price of a house
Two Types of Random Variables:
• A discrete random variable has a countable number of possible values
• A continuous random variable takes all values in an interval of numbers
A discrete random variable has a countable number of possible values
EXAMPLE:
In this table, x represents the number of breakdowns for a machine during a given week, and P(x) is the
probability of the corresponding value of x. Find the mean number of breakdowns per week for this
machine.
x 0 1 2 3
P(x) 0.15 .20 .35 .30
The Distributions We’ll Study

1. Binomial Distribution
2. Hyper geometric Distribution
3. Poisson Distribution
4. Normal Distribution
 Binomial Probability Distribution
(Type of Discrete Probability Distribution)
The Binomial Probability Distribution
Many experiments consist of repeated independent trials, each trial having
two possible complementary outcomes. For example, two possible
outcomes of a trial may be head and tail, success and failure, right and
wrong, alive and dead, good and defective, infected and not infected and so
forth.
If the probability of each outcome remains the same throughout the trials,
then such trials are called the Bernoulli trials and the experiment having “n”
Bernoulli trials is called a binomial experiment.

A binomial experiment is one that possesses the following properties:

1: the outcomes of each trial may be classified into one of the two
categories conventionally called success and failure. It is to be noted that
the outcome of interest is called a success and the other, a failure.
2: The probability of a success, denoted by p, remains constant from trial to
trial and repeated trials are independent.
3: the successive trials are all independent.
4: the experiment is repeated a fixed number of times, say “n”.
 b(x, n, p)=
•  
Coefficient of skewness:
;
Coefficient of kurtosis:
5.51 Which of the following are binomial experiments? Explain why.
a. Rolling a die many times and observing the number of spots
b. Rolling a die many times and observing whether the number obtained is
even or odd
c. Selecting a few voters from a very large population of voters and observing
whether or not each of them favors a certain proposition in an election when
54% of all voters are known to be in favor of this proposition.

5.52 Which of the following are binomial experiments? Explain why.

a. Drawing 3 balls with replacement from a box that contains 10 balls, 6 of
which are red and 4 are blue, and observing the colors of the drawn balls
b. Drawing 3 balls without replacement from a box that contains 10 balls, 6 of
which are red and 4 are blue, and observing the colors of the drawn balls
c. Selecting a few households from New York City and observing whether or
not they own stocks when it is known that 28% of all households in New York
City own stocks
  b(x, n, p)=
EXAMPLE: Five percent of all DVD players manufactured by a large electronics
company are defective. A quality control inspector randomly selects three DVD
players from the production line. What is the probability that exactly one of these three
DVD players is defective?
 b(x, n, p)=
Example: At the Express House Delivery Service, providing high-quality service to customers is the top
priority of the management. The company guarantees a refund of all charges if a package it is delivering does
not arrive at its destination by the specified time. It is known from past data that despite all efforts, 2% of
the packages mailed through this company do not arrive at their destinations within the specified time.
Suppose a corporation mails 10 packages through Express House Delivery Service on a certain day.
(a) Find the probability that exactly one of these 10 packages will not arrive at its destination within the
specified time.
(b) Find the probability that at most one of these 10 packages will not arrive at its destination within the
specified time.
 Hypergeometric Probability Distribution
(Type of Discrete Probability Distribution)
There are many experiments in which condition of
independence is violated and the probability of
success does not remain constant for all trials. Such
experiments are called hypergeometric experiments.
In other words, a hypergeometric experiment has
the following properties:
(i) The outcomes of each trial may be classified into
one of the two categories, success and failure.
(ii) the probability of success changes on each trial.
(iii) the successive trials are dependent.
(iv) the experiment is repeated a fixed number of
times.
Explanation: As an example, suppose 20% of all auto parts manufactured at a
company are defective. Four auto parts are selected at random. What is the
probability that three of these four parts are good?
Note that we are to find the probability that three of the four auto parts are good
and one is defective.
In this case, the population is very large and the probability of the first, second,
third, and fourth auto parts being defective remains the same at .20. Similarly, the
probability of any of the parts being good remains unchanged at .80. Consequently,
we will apply the binomial probability distribution to find the probability of three
good parts in four.

Now suppose this company shipped 25 auto parts to a dealer. Later, it finds out
that 5 of those parts were defective. By the time the company manager contacts
the dealer, 4 auto parts from that shipment have already been sold. What is the
probability that 3 of those 4 parts were good parts and 1 was defective? Here,
because the 4 parts were selected without replacement from a small population,
the probability of a part being good changes from the first selection to the second
selection, to the third selection, and to the fourth selection. In this case we cannot
apply the binomial probability distribution. In such instances, we use the
hypergeometric probability distribution to find the required probability.
 𝑁 −𝑘
𝑘
𝐶. 𝑛−𝑥
𝐶
𝑥
 
h(𝑥, 𝑁 ,𝑛,𝑘
)= 𝑁
𝑛 𝐶
•Properties
  of Hypergeometric Distribution:
(i) The mean and standard deviation of them
hypergeometric distribution are:
Mean=
=Variance=
=Standard Deviation=
, , FPC=
Properties of Hypergeometric Distribution:
(ii)The mean of the hypergeometric distribution is the same
as that of the binomial distribution.
(iii) If N becomes indefinitely large, the hypergeometric
probability distribution tends to the binomial distribution.
FPC Factor:
The Finite Population Correction Factor (FPC) is used when
you sample without replacement from more than 5% of a
finite population.
It’s needed because under these circumstances, the 
Central Limit Theorem doesn’t hold and the standard error of
the estimate (e.g. the mean or proportion) will be too big. In
basic terms, the FPC captures the difference between
sampling with replacement and sampling without
replacement.
Example: Brown Manufacturing makes auto parts that are sold to auto dealers. Last week the company
shipped 25 auto parts to a dealer. Later, it found out that 5 of those parts were defective. By the time the
company manager contacted the dealer, 4 auto parts from that shipment had already been sold. What is
the probability that 3 of those 4 parts were good parts and 1 was defective?
Solution: Let a good part be called a success and a defective part be called a failure. From the given
information,
N=total number of elements (auto parts) in the population= 25
r=number of successes (good parts) in the population =20
N-r=number of failures (defective parts) in the population= 5
n=number of trials (sample size)= 4
x=number of successes in four trials =3
n-x= number of failures in four trials =1
Example: Dawn Corporation has 12 employees who hold managerial positions. Of them, 7 are
female and 5 are male. The company is planning to send 3 of these 12 managers to a
conference. If 3 managers are randomly selected out of 12,
(a) find the probability that all 3 of them are female
(b) find the probability that at most 1 of them is a female
Solution:
N=total number of managers in the population= 12
r=number of successes (females) in the population =7
N-r=number of failures (males) in the population= 5
n=number of trials (sample size)= 3
x=number of successes (females) in three selections =3
n-x= number of failures (males) in three selections 0
Using the hypergeometric formula, we calculate the required probability as follows:

Thus, the probability that all 3 of the managers selected are female is .1591.
(b)The probability that at most 1 of them is a female is given by the sum of the probabilities that either
none or 1 of the selected managers is a female.To find the probability that none of the selected managers
is a female, we use
N=total number of managers in the population= 12
r=number of successes (females) in the population =7
N-r=number of failures (males) in the population= 5
n=number of trials (sample size)= 3
x=number of successes (females) in three selections =0
n-x= number of failures (males) in three selections 3
•  
Example: In the manufacture of car tyres, a particular production process is know to yield 10 tyres with
defective walls in every batch of 100 tyres produced. From a production batch of 100 tyres, a sample of 4 is
selected for testing to destruction.
Find:(a) the probability that the sample contains 1 defective tyre. (b) the expectation of the number of
defectives in samples of size 4(c) the variance of the number of defectives in samples of size 4.
N=100, n=4, r=10, (a) x=1

 
Mean=
=Variance=
Note: r represent by M, x
represent by r
Example: A company (the producer) supplies microprocessors to a
manufacturer (the consumer) of electronic equipment. The
microprocessors are supplied in batches of 50. The consumer
regards a batch as acceptable provided that there are not more than
5 defective microprocessors in the batch. Rather than test all of the
microprocessors in the batch, 10 are selected at random and tested.
(a) Find the probability that out of a sample of 10, d = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
are defective when there are actually 5 defective microprocessors
in the batch.
(b) Suppose that the consumer will accept the batch provided that
not more than m defectives are found in the sample of 10.
(i) Find the probability that the batch is accepted when there are 5
defectives in the batch.
(ii) Find the probability that the batch is rejected when there are 3
defectives in the batch.