PROBABILITY

PROBABILITY
1 Introduction to Probability
2 Compound Events
3 The Additional Rule
4 The Multiplication Rule
5 Probability Tree
6 Conditional Probabilities
SitiHawa2008-ed.2/JSM_i3p/Statistics
Probability
Problem:
A spinner has 4 equal sectors
colored yellow, blue, green and red.
What are the chances of
landing on blue after spinning the spinner?
What are the chances of landing on red? This problem asked
us to find some
probabilities involving
Solution: a spinner.
The chances of landing on blue
are 1 in 4, or one fourth.
The chances of landing on red
are 1 in 4, or one fourth.
Definition
Definition Example
An experiment is a situation involving In the problem above, the experiment

chance or probability that leads to is spinning the spinner.
results called outcomes.
An outcome is the result of a single The possible outcomes are landing on

trial of an experiment. yellow, blue, green or red.
An event is one or more outcomes of One event of this experiment is

an experiment. landing on blue.
Probability is the measure of how The probability of landing on blue is

likely an event is. one fourth.
Terms
Probability experiment: Roll a die
Sample space: {1 2 3 4 5 6}
The set of all possible outcomes
Event: {Die is even}={2 4 6}

A subset of the sample space.
Outcome: {4}
The result of a single trial
Terms
Sample Space: The set of all possible outcomes

Choose a car from production line
        
Event: A subset of the sample space.

Outcome: The result of a single trial

Definition
In order to measure probabilities,
mathematicians have devised the following formula
for finding the probability of an event.
Probability Of An Event
The Number Of Ways Event A Can Occur
P(A) =
The Total Number Of Possible Outcomes
Examples : equally likely
Experiment 1: A spinner has 4 equal sectors colored yellow, blue, green and red.
After spinning the spinner, what is the probability of landing
on each color?
Outcomes: The possible outcomes of this experiment are yellow, blue,
green, and red.
Probabilities:
Number of ways to land on yellow 1
P(yellow) = =
Total number of colors 4
Number of ways to land on blue 1

P(blue) = =
Number of ways to land on red 1

P(red) = =
Number of ways to land on green 1

P(green) = =
Examples : Equally likely
Experiment 2: A single 6-sided die is rolled. What is the probability of each
Outcome? What is the probability of rolling an even number? of
Rolling an odd number?
Outcomes: The possible outcomes of this experiment are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6.

Probabilities:
Number of ways to roll a 1 1

P(1) = =
Total number of sides 6

P(2) = = Number of ways to roll a 6 1
P(6) = =
Number of ways to roll a 3 1 Number of ways to roll an
3
P(3) = = P(even) = even number =
Total number of sides 6 Total number of sides 6
Number of ways to an odd
Number of ways to roll a 4 1 3
number
P(4) = = P(odd) = =
Total number of sides 6 Total number of sides 6

P(5) = =
Think of…
Can you find the similarity and different

between exp. 1 and 2?
Discuss it with friend next to you…
Examples : not equally likely
Experiment 3: A glass jar contains 6 red, 5 green, 8 blue and 3

yellow marbles. If a single marble is chosen at
random from the jar, what is the probability of
choosing a red marble? a green marble? a blue
marble? a yellow marble?
Outcomes : The possible outcomes of this experiment are red,

green, blue and yellow.
Number of ways to choose yellow 3
P(yellow) = =
Total number of marbles 22
Number of ways to land on blue 8 4
P(blue) = = =
Total number of marbles 22 11
Number of ways to choose red 6 3
P(red) = = =
Total number of marbles 22 11
Number of ways to choose green 5
P(green) = =
Total number of marbles 22
Summary
The probability of an event is the measure of the chance that the event
will occur as a result of an experiment.
The probability of an event A is the number of ways event A can occur

divided by the total number of possible outcomes.
The probability of an event A, symbolized by P(A), is a number

between 0 and 1, inclusive, that measures the likelihood of an event
in the following way:
• If P(A) > P(B) then event A is more likely to occur than event B.
• If P(A) = P(B) then events A and B are equally likely to occur.
Exercises
Read each question below, and select your answer.
1. Which of the following is an experiment?
A. Tossing a coin.
B. Rolling a single 6-sided die.
C. Choosing a marble from a jar.
D. All of the above.
Exercises
2. Which of the following is an outcome?
A. Rolling a pair of dice.

B. Landing on red.
C. Choosing 2 marbles from a jar.
D. None of the above.
Exercises
3. Which of the following experiments

does NOT have equally likely outcomes?
A. Choose a number at random from 1 to 7.

B. Toss a coin.
C. Choose a letter at random from the word SCHOOL.
D. None of the above.
Exercises
4. What is the probability of choosing a vowel from the

alphabet?
A. 21/26
B. 5/26
C. 1/21
D. None of the above
Exercises
5. A number from 1 to 11 is chosen at random. What is the probabilit

of choosing an odd number?
A. 1/11
B. 5/11
C. 6/11
D. None of the above
Compound Events
Independent Events
Mutually Exclusive
Independent Events
Two events A and B are independent if the probability of the

occurrence of event B is not affected by the occurrence
(or non-occurrence) of event A.
A= Being female A= First child is a boy

B=Having type O blood B= Second child is a boy
Two events that are not independent are dependent.
A= taking an aspirin each day A= being a female

B= having a heart attack B= being under 64” tall
Testing for Independence
If P(B\A) = P(B)
then the occurrence of A has no effect on the probability of event B; that is, A
and B are independent events.
or
If P(A and B) = P(A) • P(B)
then A and B are independent events.
Independent Events
If events A and B are independent, then P(A\B) = P(A) or
P(B\A)=P(A). Otherwise, events A and B are dependet events.
Probability
Conditional
Probability
Eg. : 12 cars are on a production line where 5 are defective and 2
cars are selected at random.
A= first car is defective
B= second car is defective.
The probability of getting a defective car for the second car depends on whether
the first was defective. The events are dependent.
Eg. : Two dice are rolled.

A= first is a 4 and B = second is a 4
P(B)= 1/6 and P(B\A) = 1/6. The events are independent.
Independent Events
Complementary Events
The complement of event E is event E.
E consists of all the events in the sample space that are not in event E.
E E P(E´) = 1 - P(E)
For each experiment, an event and its complement are shown:
Experiment: Tossing a coin

Event A The coin shows heads.
Complement A' The coin shows tails.
Experiment: Drawing a card
Event A The card is black.
Complement A' The card is red.
Eg.1: The day’s production consists of 12 cars, 5 of which are

defective. If one car is selected at random, find the probability it is
not defective.
Solution:
P(defective) = 5/12
P(not defective) = 1 - 5/12 = 7/12 = 0.583
Mutually Exclusive Events
Two events, A and B are mutually exclusive, if they
cannot occur in the same trial.
A= A person is under 25
B= A person is running for the U.S. Senate
A = A person was born in Philadelphia

B = A person was born in Houston
B Mutually exclusive
A
P(A and B) = 0
When event A occurs it excludes event B in the same trial.

If A and B are mutually exclusive events,

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
Example 1:
A pair of dice is rolled. What is the probability that the sum of the numbers
rolled is either 7 or 11?
Solution:
Six outcomes have a sum of 7: (1,6), (2,5), (3,4), (4,3), (5,2), (6,1)
P(7) = 6/36
Two outcomes have a sum of 11: (5,6), (6,5)
P(11) = 2/36
The sum of the numbers cannot be 7 and 11 at the same time, so these
events are mutually exclusive.
P(7 or 11) = P(7) + P(11) = 6/36 + 2/36 = 8/36 = 2/9

Non-Mutually Exclusive Events
If two events can occur in the same trial, they are non-
mutually exclusive.
A = A person is under 25
B = A person is a lawyer
A = A person was born in Philadelphia
B = A person watches 20/20 on TV.
A and B Non-mutually exclusive
P(A and B)  0
A B
If events A and B are NOT mutually
exclusive,
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)
Example 1:
A pair of dice is rolled. What is the probability that the sum of the numbers rolled is
either an even number or a multiple of 3?
Solution:
Of the 36 possible outcomes, 18 are even sums.

P(even) = 18/36 = 1/2
Sums of 3, 6, 9, and 12 are multiples of 3.
There are 12 sums that are multiples of 3.
P(multiple of 3)= 12/36 = 1/3
However, some of these outcomes appear in both events.

The sums that are even and a multiple of 3 are 6 and 12.
There are 6 ordered pairs with these sums.
P(even AND a multiple of 3) = 6/36 = 1/6

P(even OR a multiple of 3) = 18/36 + 12/36 - 6/36 = 24/36 = 2/3
The Addition Rule
The probability that one or the other of two events will
occur is: 
 
P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)
Eg.: A card is drawn from a deck. Find the probability it is a king or it is red.
A= the card is a king B = the card is red.
P(A) = 4/52 and P(B) = 26/52 but P( A and B) = 2/52
P(A or B) = 4/52 + 26/52 - 2/52 = 28/52 = 0.538
The Addition Rule
Eg. : A card is drawn from a deck. Find the probability the card is a king or
a 10.
A = the card is a king and B = the card is a 10.
P(A) = 4/52 and P(B) = 4/52 and P( A and B) = 0/52
P(A or B) = 4/52 + 4/52 - 0/52 = 8/52 = 0.054
When events are mutually exclusive, P(A or B) = P(A) +P(B)
Multiplication Rule
To find the probability that two events, A and B will occur in

sequence, multiply the probability A occurs by the conditional
probability B occurs, given A has occurred.
P( A and B) = P(A) × P(B|A)
Multiplication Rule
Eg.: Two cars are selected from a production line of 12 where 5

are defective. Find the probability both cars are defective.
A = first car is defective B = second car is defective.
P(A) = 5/12 P(B|A) = 4/11
P(A and B) = 5/12 × 4/11 = 5/33= 0.121
Multiplication Rule
Eg.: Two dice are rolled. Find the probability both are 4’s.
A= first die is a 4 and B = second die is a 4.
P(A) = 1/6 P(B|A) = 1/6
P(A and B) = 1/6 × 1/6 = 1/36 = 0.028
When two events A and B are independent, then

P (A and B) = P(A) × P(B)
Note for independent events P(B) and P(B|A) are the same.
Summary
For complementary events
P(E') = 1 - P(E)
Subtract the probability of the event from one.
The probability both of two events occur
P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B|A)

Multiply the probability of the first event times the
conditional probability the second event occurs, given the
first occurred.
Probability Tree (Tree Diagram)
Consider a jar contains seven red discs and four white

discs. Two discs are selected without replacement.
Tree diagram: Red
6/10
Red
7/11
4/10
White
Red
7/10
4/11
White
3/10
White
First disc Second disc
Diagram
Red Case (a) : Both discs are red.
6/10
P(R1 and R2) = P(R1) x P(R2|R1)
Red
7/11 = 7/11 x 6/10
4/10
White = 21/55
Red
7/10
4/11
White
Case (b) : Getting a white disc
followed by a red disc.
3/10
White
First disc Second disc
Case (c) : Both discs are the
same colour.
Practice
Practice
Practice
Practice
Practice
Conditional Probability
Conditional probability is the probability that an event A
will occur given that event B has already occurred. If A
and B are the two events, then the conditional
probability of A given B has already ocurred is written
as P(A|B)
P(A and B) = P(A) • P(B|A)

P(A and B)
P(A|B) =
P(B)
Eg.1 :
A sample of 1000 married adults were asked whether they exercised at least once
per week or not. The following table gives a two-way classification of the responses.
Yes No
Male 350 150
If one adult is selected at random from
Female these 1000 married
250 adults, find the
250
probability that this adult
(a) do not exercise at all (b) is a female
(c) exercise more than once perweek given that this adult is a male.
(d) is a female given that this adult do not exercise.
Eg.2 :
The patients have flu and are given the same medicine . If the probability of
a patient get well after taking the medicine is 0.6, what is the probability that
all three patients still have flu after taking the medicine?
Eg.3 :
Ahmad buys two bulbs from a shop. The probability that the lifetime of a
bulb is longer than 2 months is 0.3. What is the probability that both bulbs
blow up before the second month?
Eg.4 :
Consider 2 experiments of picking 2 balls out of 5 red balls and 3 blue balls,
one after the other, one with replacement and the other without replacement.
(a) Use the three diagrams to illustrate the possible outcomes of the two
experiments.
(b) Show that, for the experiment with replacement, the two events are
independent.
(c) Show that, for the experiment without replacement, the two events are
dependent.

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PROBABILITY

3 The Additional Rule

4 The Multiplication Rule

An experiment is a situation involving In the problem above, the experiment

An outcome is the result of a single The possible outcomes are landing on

An event is one or more outcomes of One event of this experiment is

Probability is the measure of how The probability of landing on blue is

Event: {Die is even}={2 4 6}

Sample Space: The set of all possible outcomes

Number of ways to land on blue 1

Number of ways to land on red 1

Number of ways to land on green 1

Outcomes: The possible outcomes of this experiment are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6.

Number of ways to roll a 1 1

Number of ways to roll a 2 1

Number of ways to roll a 5 1

Can you find the similarity and different

Discuss it with friend next to you…

Experiment 3: A glass jar contains 6 red, 5 green, 8 blue and 3

Outcomes : The possible outcomes of this experiment are red,

The probability of an event A is the number of ways event A can occur

The probability of an event A, symbolized by P(A), is a number

1. Which of the following is an experiment?

2. Which of the following is an outcome?

A. Rolling a pair of dice.

3. Which of the following experiments

A. Choose a number at random from 1 to 7.

4. What is the probability of choosing a vowel from the

5. A number from 1 to 11 is chosen at random. What is the probabilit

Two events A and B are independent if the probability of the

A= Being female A= First child is a boy

Two events that are not independent are dependent.

A= taking an aspirin each day A= being a female

Eg. : Two dice are rolled.

For each experiment, an event and its complement are shown:

Experiment: Tossing a coin

Eg.1: The day’s production consists of 12 cars, 5 of which are

A = A person was born in Philadelphia

When event A occurs it excludes event B in the same trial.

If A and B are mutually exclusive events,

P(7 or 11) = P(7) + P(11) = 6/36 + 2/36 = 8/36 = 2/9

Of the 36 possible outcomes, 18 are even sums.

However, some of these outcomes appear in both events.

P(even AND a multiple of 3) = 6/36 = 1/6

P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)

A= the card is a king B = the card is red.

P(A) = 4/52 and P(B) = 26/52 but P( A and B) = 2/52

P(A or B) = 4/52 + 26/52 - 2/52 = 28/52 = 0.538

A = the card is a king and B = the card is a 10.

P(A) = 4/52 and P(B) = 4/52 and P( A and B) = 0/52

P(A or B) = 4/52 + 4/52 - 0/52 = 8/52 = 0.054

When events are mutually exclusive, P(A or B) = P(A) +P(B)

To find the probability that two events, A and B will occur in

P( A and B) = P(A) × P(B|A)

Eg.: Two cars are selected from a production line of 12 where 5

A = first car is defective B = second car is defective.

P(A) = 5/12 P(B|A) = 4/11

P(A and B) = 5/12 × 4/11 = 5/33= 0.121

A= first die is a 4 and B = second die is a 4.

P(A) = 1/6 P(B|A) = 1/6

P(A and B) = 1/6 × 1/6 = 1/36 = 0.028

When two events A and B are independent, then

The probability both of two events occur

P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B|A)