A Forecaster Makes a

Prediction
 WHAT IS A WEATHER
FORECAST?
A weather forecast is simply a scientific estimate of future
weather condition. Weather condition is the state of the
atmosphere at a given time expressed in terms of the most
significant weather variables. The significant weather variables
being forecast differ from place to place.
How is a Weather Forecast Made?
 Existing weather condition over a large area.
 Knowledge of the prevailing weather conditions over a
very wide area.
 The forecast decision is based on various forecasting
tools. The basic tool of a weather forecaster is
the WEATHER MAP.
The weather map
Atmospheric pressure
Wind
Temperature
Humidity
STEPS IN MAKING A WEATHER FORECAST
1st Step: Observation

2nd Step: Collection and Transmission of Weather Data

3rd Step: Plotting of Weather Data

4th Step: Analysis Of Weather Maps, Satellite And Radar

Imageries And Other Data

5th Step: Formulation of the Forecast

 Observation
Surface observations are
made at least every three
hours over land and sea.
Land-based weather
stations around the world
and automatic stations
observe the atmospheric
pressure, wind direction
and speed, temperature
of the air, humidity,
clouds, precipitation and
visibility using standard
weather instruments
Upper air stations
The pressure, temperature,
dew point temperature, wind
direction and speed are
observed at selected levels in
the atmosphere using
radiosondes which record
these data by tracking helium-
filled balloons attached to
transmitters. Another
apparatus, the theodolite, is
used in observing wind
direction and speed also at
selected levels.
Meteorological satellites
take pictures of the
cloud imagery of the
atmosphere. These
satellites take picture of
the earth's cloud
formations every hour
and continuously,
respectively.
Collection and Transmission of Weather Data
Weather observations which
are condensed into coded
figures, symbols and numerals
are transmitted via
radiophone, teletype,
facsimile machine or
telephone to designated
collection centers for further
transmission to the central
forecasting station at the
PAGASA. Weather satellite
pictures are transmitted to
ground receiving stations
 Plotting of Weather Data
Observations made over
land and sea are plotted
on the surface or mean
sea level charts which are
prepared four times a
day.
Radiosonde, theodolite,
aircraft and satellite
wind observations are
plotted on upper level
charts which are
prepared twice daily.
 Analysis Of Weather Maps, Satellite And
Radar Imageries And Other Data
SURFACE (MSL) CHART
UPPER AIR CHARTS
NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION
MODEL OUTPUT
MONITOR WEATHER CHARTS:
 Formulation of the Forecast
The first and one of the
preliminary steps is the
determination as
accurately as the data
permit, of the location
24 hours hence of the
different weather
systems and the existing
weather over a particular
region.
fairly satisfactory estimate of the direction and rate of
movement may be made by simply measuring the
movement during the last 12 or 24 hours.
PHILIPPINE WEATHER MAP