Modeling & Simulation

An Introduction to
Business Process Simulation

Dr. Syed Amir Iqbal

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 Introduction
• A simulation of a system is the operation of a model. The model
can be reconfigured and experimented with; The operation of
the model can be studied, and hence, properties concerning the
behaviour of the actual system or its subsystem.
• In its broadest sense, simulation is a tool to evaluate the
performance of a system, existing or proposed, under different
configurations of interest and over long periods of real time.
• Simulation is used before an existing system is altered or a new
system built, to reduce the chances of failure to meet
specifications, to eliminate unforeseen bottlenecks, to prevent
under or over-utilization of resources, and to optimize system
performance.

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 Definition
• A simulation is the imitation (Duplication) of the operation of
real-world process or system over time.
- Generation of artificial history and observation of that observation history
• A model construct a conceptual framework that describes a
system
• The behaviour of a system that evolves over time is studied by
developing a simulation model.
• The model takes a set of expressed assumptions:
- Mathematical, logical
- Symbolic relationship between the entities

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Simulation Study Schematic

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Simulation Can Be Used To Answer
Questions Like
• What is the best design for a new telecommunications network?
• What are the associated resource requirements?
• How will a telecommunication network perform when the traffic
load increases by 50%?
• Which network protocol optimizes network performance?
• What will be the impact of a link failure?

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• In a simulation study, human decision making is required at all
stages, namely, model development, experiment design,
output analysis, conclusion formulation, and making decisions
to alter the system under study.
• The only stage where human intervention is not required is the
running of the simulations, which most simulation software
packages perform efficiently.
• The important point is that powerful simulation software is
merely a hygiene factor - its absence can hurt a simulation
study but its presence will not ensure success. Experienced
problem formulators and simulation modelers and analysts are
indispensable for a successful simulation study.

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Three Dimensions to Classify Simulation
Models
Dynamic
Static
• Time does
plays play
no role
a role.
in the analysis.
‐ Example: any
• Modeling Toss real
of a die a few where
system hundredvariables
times. and
‐ Estimates number
parameters of each
are related todie face
time.
‐‐ Estimate is not
Production overcorrect
time
Three Dimensions to Classify Simulation
Models
Continuous
Discrete
• Change
State of can
the occur
systemonly
canatchange
separated
continuously
points in over
time.
time.
(i.e Event times)
‐ Bank
Precipitation
teller model has events that occur only when
‐ customer arrives
Water flowing or acustomer
over dam leaves
‐ Flow in a pipeline
Three Dimensions to Classify Simulation
Models
Deterministic
Stochastic
• Operate
Models have
with no
random
random input
input
• Random
Fixed service
arrivals
times
to alike
fast
anfood
appointment
drive through
book.window
• Waiting time for delivery of food
 Important Types of Simulation
• The subject of this presentation is discrete event simulation in
which the central assumption is that the system changes
instantaneously in response to certain discrete events.
• On the other hand, continuous simulators, like flight simulators
and weather simulators, attempt to quantify the changes in a
system continuously over time in response to controls.
• Discrete event simulation is less detailed (coarser in its smallest
time unit) than continuous simulation but it is much simpler to
implement, and hence, is used in a wide variety of situations.

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 Simulation—What Does It Require
for Business Processes
• Process Map of business process
‐ Relationships/linkages
‐ Time for process interaction
‐ Cost for process interaction
‐ Perspective of item moving through system
• Data quality
‐ Above
‐ Appropriate probability distribution for time to handle
item or item waits
 Goal of Modeling And Simulation
• A model can be used to investigate a wide verity of “what if”
questions about real-world system.
- Potential changes to the system can be simulated and predicate their
impact on the system.
- Find adequate parameters before implementation
• So simulation can be used as:
- Analysis tool for predicating the effect of changes
- Design tool to predicate the performance of new system
• It is better to do simulation before Implementation.

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When Simulation Is the Appropriate Tool
• Simulation enable the study of internal interaction of a subsystem with
complex system
• Informational, organizational and environmental changes can be simulated
and find their effects
• A simulation model help us to gain knowledge about improvement of system
• Finding important input parameters with changing simulation inputs
• Simulation can be used with new design and policies before implementation
• Simulating different capabilities for a machine can help determine the
requirement
• Simulation models designed for training make learning possible without the
cost disruption
• A plan can be visualized with animated simulation
• The modern system (factory, wafer fabrication plant, service organization) is
too complex that its internal interaction can be treated only by simulation
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 When Simulation is not Appropriate
• When the problem can be solved using common sense.
• When the problem can be solved analytically.
• When it is easier to perform direct experiments.
• When the simulation costs exceed the savings.
• When the resources or time are not available.
• When system behavior is too complex or can’t be defined.
• When there isn’t the ability to verify and validate the model.
 Advantages of doing simulation
• New policies, operating procedures, information flows and son on can be
explored without disrupting ongoing operation of the real system.
• New hardware designs, physical layouts, transportation systems and … can be
tested without committing resources for their acquisition.
• Time can be compressed or expanded to allow for a speed-up or slow-down
of the phenomenon( clock is self-control).
• Insight can be obtained about interaction of variables and important
variables to the performance.
• Bottleneck analysis can be performed to discover where work in process, the
system is delayed.
• A simulation study can help in understanding how the system operates.
• “What if” questions can be answered.

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 Disadvantages of simulation
• Model building requires special training.
- Vendors of simulation software have been actively developing packages
that contain models that only need input (templates).
• Simulation results can be difficult to interpret.
• Simulation modeling and analysis can be time consuming and expensive.
- Many simulation software have output-analysis.

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 Areas of application
• Manufacturing Applications
‐ Analysis of electronics assembly operations
‐ Design and evaluation of a selective assembly station for high-precision
scroll compressor shells
‐ Comparison of dispatching rules for semiconductor manufacturing using
large-facility models
‐ Evaluation of cluster tool throughput for thin-film head production
‐ Determining optimal lot size for a semiconductor back-end factory
‐ Optimization of cycle time and utilization in semiconductor test
manufacturing
‐ Analysis of storage and retrieval strategies in a warehouse
‐ Investigation of dynamics in a service-oriented supply chain
‐ Model for an Army chemical munitions disposal facility
• Semiconductor Manufacturing
‐ Comparison of dispatching rules using large-facility models
‐ The corrupting influence of variability
‐ A new lot-release rule for wafer fabs
 Areas of application
‐ Assessment of potential gains in productivity due to proactive reticle
management
‐ Comparison of a 200-mm and 300-mm X-ray lithography cell
‐ Capacity planning with time constraints between operations
‐ 300-mm logistic system risk reduction
• Construction Engineering
‐ Construction of a dam embankment
‐ Trenchless renewal of underground urban infrastructures
‐ Activity scheduling in a dynamic, multiproject setting
‐ Investigation of the structural steel erection process
‐ Special-purpose template for utility tunnel construction
• Military Application
‐ Modeling leadership effects and recruit type in an Army recruiting station
‐ Design and test of an intelligent controller for autonomous underwater
vehicles
‐ Modeling military requirements for nonwarfighting operations
‐ Multitrajectory performance for varying scenario sizes
‐ Using adaptive agent in U.S Air Force pilot retention
 Areas of application
• Logistics, Transportation, and Distribution Applications
‐ Evaluating the potential benefits of a rail-traffic planning
algorithm
‐ Evaluating strategies to improve railroad performance
‐ Parametric modeling in rail-capacity planning
‐ Analysis of passenger flows in an airport terminal
‐ Proactive flight-schedule evaluation
‐ Logistics issues in autonomous food production systems for
extended-duration space exploration
‐ Sizing industrial rail-car fleets
‐ Product distribution in the newspaper industry
‐ Design of a toll plaza
‐ Choosing between rental-car locations
‐ Quick-response replenishment
 Areas of application

• Business Process Simulation

‐ Impact of connection bank redesign on airport gate assignment
‐ Product development program planning
‐ Reconciliation of business and systems modeling
‐ Personnel forecasting and strategic workforce planning
• Human Systems
‐ Modeling human performance in complex systems
‐ Studying the human element in air traffic control
 Steps in a Simulation Study
For developing a simulation model, designing a simulation
experiment, and performing simulation analysis are:
1. Identify the problem.
2. Formulate the problem.
3. Collect and process real system data.
4. Formulate and develop a model.
5. Validate the model.
6. Document model for future use.
7. Select appropriate experimental design.
8. Establish experimental conditions for runs.
9. Perform simulation runs.
10. Interpret and present results.
11. Recommend further course of action.

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 Steps In a
Simulation Study

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Major Commercial Simulation Software
For Discrete Event Simulation
• Witness
• ARENA
• Plant Simulation
• Simul8
• EXTEND
etc.

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