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Management Science: Prof. (DR.) Jagathy Raj V. P
Management Science: Prof. (DR.) Jagathy Raj V. P
To
Management Science
Choose an alternative
situation
Decision ?
A settlement
A fixed intention bringing to a
conclusive result
A judgment
A resolution
Decision Making
The first five steps of Problem Solving constitute the Decision Making
process:
Identify and define the problem
Determine the alternatives
Determine the criteria
Evaluate the alternatives
Choose an alternative
Complex operations have increased the costs of errors, causing a chain reaction
throughout the organization.
Rapidly changing global economies and markets are producing greater uncertainty
and requiring faster response in order to maintain competitive advantages.
Choose an Alternative
Nature of Decision Depends on
Decision makers
Variety of information
improves representation of an entity
updates the level of knowledge
has surprise value
reduces uncertainty
aids in decision making
Types of Information
Internal Information
External Information
Types of Decisions
Strategic
Tactical
Operational
Strategic Decisions
Mainly summarized
Operational decisions
1. Structure/operational:
- Cut a log into boards -> minimize waste
- Inventory re-ordering (mathematics models)
2. Structure/tactical:
- Depreciate corporate assets (straight-lne depreciation or various
accelerate depreciation formulas)
- Resource allocation (linear programming)
3. Structure/strategic:
Rare combination. Because of its size
- Proceed with R&D based on ROI (80% of R&D)
- A plant location decision (all known cost)
4. Semi structure/operational:
- Deciding to accept or reject an applicant to a selective
college. Some structured. Balance class (sports etc.). Not
quantitative evaluation.
Examples of nine decision types- contd……of nine
decision types
5. Semistructure/tactical:
- Choosing an insurance carrier for employee health program.
cost/employee/deductable/acceptability.
6. Semistructure/strategic:
- Whether to enter new market segment. Sales projection/
marketplace growth data, development cost estimate,
marketing expense forecast. Profit & loss forecast.
Judgement of experienced managers.
7. Unstructure/operational:
- Dealing with machine breakdown. If rare case.
8. Unstructure/tactical:
- Hiring decisions for some jobs
9. Unstructure/strategic:
- How to response to unfriendly takeover by competitors
TYPES of Decisions
OPERATIONAL TACTICAL STRATEGIC
STRUCTURED Should I buy another How should I budget What student loans
campus meal card? for expenses next should I take out?
Month?
Benefits of Modelling:
Modelling allows us to make inexpensive errors.
Allows exploration of the impossible
Improves business intuition
Provides timely information
Reduces costs
Advantages of Models
Generally, experimenting with models (compared to experimenting
with the real situation) because it requires less time, is less
expensive, and involves less risk.
The more closely the model represents the real situation, the more
accurate the conclusions and predictions will be.
Static models
Models that describe a single interval of a situation
Dynamic models
Models whose input data are changed over time
(e.g., a five-year profit or loss projection)
Classification of Models – contd.....
And minimum losses, risks, cost, and time of some objective function.
It have also become an important part of INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING
PROFESSION.
During the Second World War about 1000 Men and Women were
engaged to work for British Army.
Other Definitions
“a scientific approach to decision making, which seeks to determine how
best to design and operate a system, usually under conditions requiring
the allocation of scarce resources.”
Operations Sectors
Industrial Sector
Agriculture Sector
Construction
Transport Sector
Banking Sector
Communication Sector
Computer Design and Working
Airlines Business
Army Projects
Examples of Operations in Various Sectors
Industrial Manufacturing
Scheduling production
Process control
Logistics
Distribution network
Center location
Transportation plan
Telecommunication
Network design
Traffic routing
Base station location
Air Line Industry
Plane scheduling
Crew scheduling
Why Focusing on Operations?
Characteristics:
Use of Scientific Methods
Provide quantitative basis for decision making
Requires Construction of Model
Interdisciplinary Team work
Require the use of Computer applications
FEATURES OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH
Decision-Making
Scientific Approach
Inter-Disciplinary Team Approach
System Approach
Use of Computers
Objectives
Human Factors
DECISION MAKING and OR
Every industrial organisation faces multifaceted
problems to identify best possible solution to their
problems.
In L.I.C. What should be the minimum premium rates for various modes
of policies ? How best the profit could be distributed in the cases of with
profit policies ?
Methodologies/Approaches of Operational Research
1. Orientation F
2. Problem Definition E
3. Data Collection E
4. Model Formulation D
5. Solution B
6. Analyses and Information A
7. Implementation and Monitoring C
K
Techniques/Tools of Operational Research
Linear Programming
Queuing Theory
Sequencing
Transportation Problems
Integer Problems
Assignment Problems
Decision Theory
Games Theory
Replacement Problems
Inventory Problems
Network Problems
LINEAR PROGRAMMING
This technique is used to find a solution for optimising a
given objective.
Objective may be maximizing profits or minimising costs.
Objective function and Boundary conditions are linear in
nature.
LPP techniques solve Product-Mix and Distribution
problems of enterprise.
Its also used to allocate Scarce Resources in optimum
manner in problems of scheduling, product mix, etc.
QUEUING THEORY
This theory deals with the situations in which queue is
formed, e.g. customers waiting for services, machines
waiting for repairmen, and aircrafts waiting for landing
strips, etc.
If the Queue will be long the cost will be high due to
long waiting hour.
This technique is used to analyse the feasibility of
adding facilities and to access the amount and cost of
waiting time.
This calculations can then be used to determine the
desirable number of service facilities.
SEQUENCING
Magnitude of Computation
Non-Quantifiable Factors
Distance between User and Analyst
Time and Money Costs
Implementation
Magnitude of Computation
Operations research models try to find out optimal
solution taking into account all the factors. But, these
factors are enormous and, expressing them in quantity,
and,
establishing relationships among these, Require
voluminous calculations which can be handled only by
computers.
Non-quantifiable Factors