Lecture 03

Plant Capacity Factor, Load Forecasting

and
Selection of Number of Units
 Key Terminologies
• Plant Capacity Factor- Ratio of actual energy produced to
maximum possible energy that can be produced in a given time.
– Indication of reserve capacity of the plant
– Power station always have some reserve capacity to meet future
demands=>installed capacity is greater than maximum demand
– Reserve capacity = Plant capacity – Maximum Demand
• Plant Use Factor- Ratio of KWh generated to product of plant
capacity and the number of hours for which the plant was in
operation.
• Load Duration Curve-Plot of demand in descending order for
given time.
Representation of Different Parameters
 Plant Capacity Factor

• Plant
  Capacity Factor
=
 If period considered is one year then
 Annual plant capacity factor =  
 Plant Capacity factor is an indication of the reserve capacity of
the plant
 A power station is so designed that it has some reserve
capacity for meeting the increased load demand in future

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 Reserve Capacity
 Reserve capacity = Plant capacity − Max. demand
 If the maximum demand on the plant is equal to the plant
capacity, then load factor and plant capacity factor will have
the same value
 In such a case, the plant will have no reserve capacity
 Plant Use Factor =
(Station output in KWh)/(Plant Capacity x Hours of use)

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Utilization Factor
Summary of Definitions
 Reasons for Electrical Load Growth
• New customer additions
− Load will increase if more customers are buying the utility's
product.
− New construction and a net population in-migration to the area will
add new customers and increase peak load.
• New uses of electricity
− Addition or replacing of device by existed customers.
− With every customer buying more electricity, the peak load and
annual energy sales will most likely increase.
 Load Forecasting
• A technique used by power or energy-providing companies to predict the
power/energy needed to meet the demand and supply equilibrium.
• Systematic procedure for quantitatively defining future loads.
Classification depending on the time period:
• Short term
– 1-2 years for deciding operating procedures & preparing budget
estimates
• Medium-term
– 5-6 years for planning the size of stations.
• Long term
– 20-year period for bigger picture of energy supply problems
 Factors Affecting Load Forecasting

• Time factors such as:

– Hours of the day (day/night)
– Day of the week (week day/weekend)
– Time of the year (season)
• Weather conditions (temperature and humidity)
• Class of customers (residential, commercial, industrial, agricultural, public, etc.)
• Special events (TV programmes, public holidays, etc.)
• Population
• Economic indicators (per capita income, Gross National Product (GNP), Gross
Domestic Product (GDP), etc.)
• Trends in using new technologies
• Electricity price
 Methods of Load Forecasting

• Sectional Methods or Load Survey Methods

– Visit, enquiries from consumer, category-wise and area-wise.
• Methods of Extrapolation
– Collection of data from various sources & application of
statistical methods
– Handicapped if don’t consider unforeseen developments
• Mathematical Methods
– Use of past data & direct extrapolation (linear or exponential)
– Applicable where adequate statistical data available.
• Energonomics
– Consider economic factors
 Choice of Size of Generating Units & Number of Units

•Predicted load curve => Nature of varying demand

•Poor load factor => Greater variation in demand
•Minimum capacity of generating plant must be sufficient to meet
maximum demand.
•Minimum units could be one.
– Variable load =>the prime move and generator would be working
on full load for a very small time => Generating set would not be
running at all the time, under conditions best suited for giving
maximum efficiency=> fuel cost would be greater =>
Uneconomical to run the set under low load conditions.
 Choice of Size of Generating Units & Number of Units

• Essential for a power station to maintain continuity & reliability

• To satisfy this requirement, another set of equal capacity
must be installed, in case first set is out of order or being
opened up for repairs.
• => Use of only unit is neither practical nor economical.
• Solution: Choose Number of set to fit the load curve as closely
as possible.
• Reserve required would only be one unit of the largest size
chosen.
• Issues: More space required, Cost of building and maintenance,
More starting, stopping & parallel operation of equipment.
Operation Schedule of Generating Units
Effect of Variable Load on Power Plant Operation & Design

• Variation in load => generators & prime movers have to move

quick to take up or without causing variations in voltage or
frequency =>Control supply of fuel to prime mover through
governeor
• Increase in Load => Slow down rotor =>Reduction in
frequency
Þ Reduction in speed of prime mover => governor acts to take
more fuel => Control of governor is important
• Parallel operation of generators
• Operation of generators for economic dispatch