Construction Management

Estimating Activity Duration

o Activity duration is a random variable. Because we

don’t know what factors will be operative when work
is underway on an activity, we cannot know exactly
how long it will take.
o There will, of course, be varying estimates with
varying precision for each activity.
Estimating Activity Duration

o One of your goals in estimating activity duration is to

define the activity to a level of granularity so that your
estimates have a narrow variance
o That is, the estimate is as good as you can get it at
the planning stages of the project.
o As project work is completed, you will be able to
improve the earlier estimates of activities scheduled
later in the project.
Variation in Activity Duration

o There are several causes of variation in the actual

activity duration:
o Varying skill levels
o Unexpected events
o Efficiency of work time
o Mistakes and misunderstandings
o Common cause variation
Varying skill levels

o You may get a higher- or lower-skilled person

assigned to the activity, causing the actual duration to
vary from planned duration.
Unexpected events

o These include Random acts of nature, delays,

incorrect shipments of materials, traffic jams, power
failures etc.
Efficiency of work time

o Every time a worker is interrupted, it takes more time to

get up to the level of productivity.
o You cannot control the frequency or time of interruptions,
but you do know that they will happen.
Mistakes and misunderstandings

o There may be some sort of non intentional mistakes

or misunderstandings that can cause the delay of a
particular activities.
Common cause variation

o Apart from all of these factors that can influence

activity duration, the reality is that durations will vary
for no reason other than the statistical variation that
arises because the duration is in fact a random
variable.
o It has a natural variation, and nothing you do can
really decrease that variation.
Six Methods for Estimating
Activity Duration
o Similarity to other activities
o Historical data
o Expert advice
o Delphi technique
o Three-point technique
o Wide-band Delphi technique
Similarity to other activities

o Some of the activities in your WBS may be similar to

activities completed in other projects.
o Your or others’ recollections of those activities and their
duration can be used to estimate the present activity’s
duration.
o In most cases, using the estimates from those activities
provides estimates that are good enough.
Historical data

o Every good project management methodology contains a

project notebook that records the estimated and actual
activity duration.
o This historical record can be used on other projects.
o The recorded data becomes your knowledge base for
estimating activity duration.
o This technique differs from the previous technique in that
it uses a record, rather than depending on memory.
Expert advice

o When the project involves a breakthrough technology or

a technology that is being used for the first time in the
organization, there may not be any local experience or
even professionals skilled in the technology within the
organization.
o In these cases, you will have to appeal to outside
authorities.
Delphi technique

o The Delphi technique can produce good estimates in

the absence of expert advice.
o This is a group technique that extracts and
summarizes the knowledge of the group to arrive at
an estimate.
o After the group is briefed on the project and the nature
of the activity, each individual in the group is asked to
make his or her best guess of the activity duration.
Delphi technique

o The results are tabulated and presented, as shown in

Figure to the group in a histogram labeled First Pass.
o Those participants whose estimates fall in the outer
quartiles are asked to share the reason for their guess.
o After listening to the arguments, each group member is
asked to guess again.
o The results are presented as a histogram labeled
Second Pass, and again the outer quartile estimates are
defended.
Delphi technique

o A third guess is made, and the histogram plotted is

labeled Third Pass.
o Final adjustments are allowed.
o The average of the third guess is used as the group’s
estimate.
Delphi technique
Three-point technique

o To use the three-point technique you need three estimates of

activity duration:
o Optimistic. The optimistic time is defined as the shortest
duration one has had or might expect to experience given that
everything happens as expected.
o Pessimistic. The pessimistic time is that duration that would
be experienced (or has been experienced) if everything that
could go wrong did go wrong, yet the activity was completed.
o Most likely. The most likely time is that time usually
experienced.
Wide-band Delphi technique
o Combining the Delphi and three-point methods results in
the wide-band Delphi technique.
o It involves a panel, as in the Delphi technique. In place of
a single estimate, the panel members are asked, at each
iteration, to give their optimistic, pessimistic, and most
likely estimates for the duration of the chosen activity.
o The results are compiled, and any extreme estimates are
removed.
o Averages are computed for each of the three estimates,
and the averages are used as the optimistic, pessimistic,
and most likely estimates of activity duration.
Wide-band Delphi technique
Organizational breakdown
structure (OBS)