Project Management – CAT - 3

Forecasting and Time Series Analysis

Presented By : Akash
Kulshrestha Mohammad Umair
Rohit Kumar
 What is Forecasting ?

• In getting ready plans for the future, the administration authority

needs to make a few forecasts about what is probably going to occur
in the future.

• Forecasting gives them this information. Forecasting is the way

toward assessing the significant occasions of future, in view of the
examination of their at various times conduct.

• The future can't be examined except if one knows how the occasions
have happened previously and how they are happening by and by.
The over a significant time span examination of occasions gives the
base accommodating to gathering data about their future event.
 Role of Forecasting:

• Basis of Planning

• Promotion of Organization

• Facilitating Co-ordination and Control

• Success in Organisation
Weighted Moving Average Method
• A moving average is a strategy to get a general thought of the trends in
an informational index; it is an average of any subset of numbers.

• The moving average is amazingly valuable for forecasting long haul

trends.

• Weighted average is a computation that considers the changing

degrees of significance of the numbers in an informational collection.

• In calculating a weighted average, each number in the informational

index is duplicated by a foreordained load before the last figuring is
made.

• A weighted average can be more exact than a straightforward average

in which all numbers in an informational index are relegated an
indistinguishable weight.
 Advantages of Weighted Moving Average
• The weighted average strategy limits the impact of abnormal
high and-low material costs.

• The weighted average strategy is viable and reasonable for

charging cost of material used to creation.

• It is helpful for the board in investigating of working outcomes.

• This strategy is easy to apply if receipts of material are not

various.
Disadvantages of Weighted Moving Average

• Materials utilized may not be charged to creation

at the current cost.

• The cost charged to creation are not the real

costs.

• On the off chance that the receipts are various,

numerous estimations are required.
 Example
Data Point Data Point Value Assigned Weight

1 10 2
1 50 5
1 40 3
1 20 4
1 30 6
1 60 8
1 40 9
1 30 5
1 20 1
1 10 7
 Solution
Data Point Data Point Value Assigned Weight Data Point Weighted Value

1 10
1 50
1 40
1 20
1 30
1 60
1 40
1 30
1 20
1 10
50
2 20
5 250
3 120
4 80
6 180
8 480
9 360
5 150
1 20
7 70
1730

Weighted Average = (10*2)+(50*5)+(40*3)+(20*4)+(30*6)+(60*8)+(40*9)+(30*5)+(20*1)+(10*7)

2+5+3+4+6+8+9+5+1+7
= 1730  34.6
50
Thank You