The Binomial Distribution

Seminar 1
Aims of this session:
Understand the concept of a Bernoulli trial with two outcomes e.g. success and
failure.

Know what a binomial distribution is and when it is a suitable model for a

practical situation.

Use the binomial distribution to calculate probabilities.

Probability Distributions
Example
Tim is an amateur tennis player. For each game, independently of all others, the
probability that Tim wins is 0.4.
Tim plays 3 games.
Determine the probability distribution for the number of games he wins.
 0 wins: Lose Lose Lose (LLL)

 1 win: WLL or LWL or LLW

 2 wins: WWL or WLW or LWW

 3 wins: WWW
Probability Distributions
Example
Tim is an amateur tennis player. For each game, independently of all others, the
probability that Tim wins is 0.4.
Tim plays 3 games.
Determine the probability distribution for the number of games he wins.

0.50

0.40

Probability
0.30

0.20

0.10

0.00
0 1 2 3
Outcome
Probability Distributions
Example
Tim is an amateur tennis player. For each game, independently of all others, the
probability that Tim wins is 0.4.
Tim plays 5 games.
Determine the probability distribution for the number of games he wins.

 0 wins: Lose Lose Lose Lose Lose (LLLLL)

 1 win: WLLLL or LWLLL or LLWLL or LLLWL or LLLLW

It is a lot of work! We need a quicker way…

Binomial Distribution
 A binomial distribution arises when the following conditions are met:
• an experiment is repeated a fixed number of times ()
(i.e. there is a fixed number of trials);

• the outcomes from the trials are independent of one another;

• each trial has two possible outcomes (referred to as success and failure);

• the probability of a success (p) is constant.

The trials are commonly referred to as Bernoulli Trials.

Binomial or Not?
Which of these situations might reasonably be modelled by a binomial distribution?
Joan takes a multiple choice examination consisting of 40 questions. X
is the number of questions answered correctly if she chooses each Binomial

answer completely at random.

A bag contains 6 blue and 8 green counters. James randomly picks 5 Not
counters from the bag without replacement. X is the number of blue binomial
counters picked out. Outcomes are not independent

A bag contains 6 blue and 8 green counters. Jan randomly picks 5

counters from the bag, replacing each counter before picking the next. Binomial

X is the number of blue counters picked out.

Jon throws a dice repeatedly until he obtains a six. X is the number of Not
throws he needs before a six arises. binomial
The number of trials is not fixed
Binomial Distribution
 If
all the conditions are satisfied and is the random variable for the number of
successes, then has a binomial distribution.

We write:
~ B(n , p)
and:

• = the number of trials

• = the probability of success at each trial

• Sometimes is called the index and the parameter of the binomial distribution.
Binomial distribution
 

 To calculate on a calculator:

( 1 0 SHIFT ÷ 5 ) =

Your calculator screen should show:

This means there are 252 ways of choosing 5 items from a total of 10.
Binomial distribution
  𝑛
P ( 𝑋=𝑥 )=
( )
𝑥
𝑝
𝑥
( 1 − 𝑝 )𝑛 − 𝑥

Example

 a)

 b)

 c)
Probability distributions
Example
Tim is an amateur tennis player. For each game, independently of all others, the
probability that Tim wins is 0.4.
Tim plays 5 games.
Determine the probability distribution for the number of games he wins.

   
Probability distributions
Example
Tim is an amateur tennis player. For each game, independently of all others, the
probability that Tim wins is 0.4.
Tim plays 5 games.
Determine the probability distribution for the number of games he wins.

0.40

0.30

Probability
0.20

0.10

0.00
0 1 2 3 4 5
Number of wins
Binomial distribution
Tim plays 10 games. Tim plays 25 games.
The probability distribution for the The probability distribution for the
number of games he wins is: number of games he wins is:
0.30 0.20

0.15

0.20

Probability
0.10
Probability

0.05
0.10
0.00
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

-0.05
0.00
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Number of wins
Number of wins
Question Time

 The binomial distribution: ~ B(n , p):

• = the number of trials

• = the probability of success at each trial
Aims of this session:
Understand the concept of a Bernoulli trial with two outcomes e.g. success and
failure.

Know what a binomial distribution is and when it is a suitable model for a

practical situation.

Use the binomial distribution to calculate probabilities.

Additional Resources
Reading list:

• Crawshaw, D.J. and Chambers, J.S. (2001) A Concise Course in Advanced Level
Statistics (4th ed.) Nelson Thornes

• Pledger, K. et al. (2008) Edexcel AS and A Level Modular Mathematics - Statistics 1

• Pledger, K. et al. (2008) Edexcel AS and A Level Modular Mathematics - Statistics 2

Websites:

http://www.physicsandmathstutor.com/maths-revision/

https://www.examsolutions.net/a-level-maths/