PROBABILITY

Mathematical measure of chance of

occurrence of a phenomena
 Some Basic Terminologies
Experiment
An operation which can yield at least an output.

Trial
Single performance during entire experiment
 Types of Experiment

Deterministic
“output is known or can be predicted in advance.”
“Result is always unique”
• Examples :
1. Immersion of blue litmus paper into acidic
solution
2. Determination of value of ‘g’ in campus
laboratory
3. Examining colors in rainbow
 Types of Experiment
Continued..
Random
Output in a trial is unknown but occurs from a known set of
outcomes. “Result is not unique”
Examples :
1. Drawing a ball from a bag containing 2 white, 4 black and 3
red balls. ( Of which color will it be ?
2. Measuring distance between two consecutive bus stops along
Araniko Highway? (What measure do you expect?)
3. Testing a printed circuit board to determine whether it is
defective or an acceptable product ? (How it is random?)
 Some Basic Terminologies
1. Sample space
Set of all possible outcomes in a random experiment is called the
sample space. Generally denoted by ‘S’.
Example

i. (Possible guess of children ) A family has two children .

Denoting a boy by ‘B’ and a girl by ‘G’, the sample space i.e.
the set of all possible outcomes according as the birth will
be,
S = { BB, BG, GB, GG}. (why the experiment is random?)
 Continued…
ii. (Rolling a die and observing the face that appears)
A die has the faces marked 1,2,3,4,5 and 6. If it is rolled once, the
set of all possible outcomes, called, sample space , will be
S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}.
iii. (Measuring height of 48 students of a class of Pulchowk
campus )
Now what sort of sample points will you get? Answer is : a real
number in a given range. The sample space will be;
S = {x: 5 < x < 7}
 Event
Any subset of sample space is an event.
For example, the sample space while rolling a die is:
S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
Let us have the cases :
i. A = getting a perfect square number
so, A = {1,4}
ii. B = getting an even number
So, B = {2,4,6}
iii. C = getting a number less than 4
So , C = {1,2,3} and so on.
 Continued…
Note that each of A, B, C are subsets of S. Hence they are
EVENTS.
Depending upon the condition that an event may not contain the
sample point or contain all of the points, they are respectively
called :
A Null , often denoted by ϕ and a Sure event .
For example, take
D = getting a number more than 6 = { }. It is a null event.
E = getting a number less or equal to 6. It is a sure event.
 Types of events
1. Simple and Compound event
An event is said to be simple or elementary if it is a singleton
subset of the sample space. It cannot be further decomposed.

An event is said to be compound if it consists of more than one

element of the sample space. It can be decomposed into simple
events.
For example, the sample space while rolling a die is:
S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}.
Take events A = {2} and B = getting an odd number = {1,3,5}
Clearly A is a simple and B is a compound event.
 Types of events
continued…
2. Exhaustive events
A number of events which can compose entire sample space are
exhaustive events. If A1, A 2,…...., An events in a sample space S
such that
A1 ∪A2∪…..∪An =S , then A1, A 2,…...., An are exhaustive events.
For example, the sample space while rolling a die is:
S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
Let us have the cases :
A = getting a perfect square number = {1,4} , B = getting an even
number = {2,4,6}, C = getting an odd number = {1,3,5}. Then as
A U B U C = S, these are exhaustive events.
 Exhaustive cases
Total number of all possible outcomes of a random experiment is
called exhaustive cases. Example,
i) In flipping a coin S = {H,T}. So exhaustive cases = 2
ii) In flipping a coin twice S = {HH, HT,TH,TT}. So exhaustive
cases = 22 = 4
iii) In rolling a die thrice S = {(1,1,1), (1,2,1), …, (6,6,6)}. So
exhaustive cases = 63 = 216.

Therefore no. of exhaustive cases

=( no. of cases in elementary sample space) no. of repetition of trial
 Mutually Exclusive Events
Two or more events are mutually exclusive if occurrence of any
one of them completely bans the occurrence of the other in a
trial. Mathematically, events are mutually exclusive if their
intersection is a null set.
Take the sample space S = {1,2,3,4,5,6} in rolling a die once.
Consider the events,
A = getting an even number = {2,4,6}, B = getting an odd
number = {1,3,5}, C = getting a number less than 4 = {1,2,3}.
Note that A∩B=ϕ but A∩C and B∩C are not =ϕ . Hence ,
events A and B are mutually exclusive while events A and C; and
B and C are not so.
 Independent Events
Events are said to be independent of each other in multiple trials if
the occurrence (or non occurrence ) of one does not affect or is not
affected by the occurrence (or non occurrence ) of the other.
Examples:
1. Say, a coin is tossed twice. Take the event A of getting head ‘H’
in first trial and event B of getting tail ‘T’ ( or head ‘H’ again) in
second trial. Now A and B are independent.
2. Suppose an urn contains 4 red and 5 white balls. Take event A as
getting a white ball in first draw and event B as getting a red (or
white) ball in second draw after replacement of the ball in first
draw. Now A and B are independent.
(What happens if replacement is not made? )
 Question

Can two events be mutually exclusive and

independent simultaneously?