SUPER SATURDAY:

FIVE KEY FOREIGN POLICY

CHALLENGES FOR THE NEW
PRESIDENT

by
Paige Johnson Tan, Ph.D.
Department of Public and International Affairs,
UNCW
 What Do You Think?

 What do you
think are the top
five foreign
policy
challenges the
US faces?
 President Obama’s Foreign Policy
 Hints during the campaign
as to how Obama looked at
the world:
 Summer 2008 interview,
Obama praised Truman
foreign policy, particularly
Marshall and Kennan.
 Also praised first President
Bush’s foreign policy.
 
 Obama’s Foreign Policy
 Distilling from Obama elsewhere during
the campaign:
 Obama's sense of the world was more
optimistic than his opponent’s. The
dangers are real but not all-encompassing.
 Obama spoke less of Islamic extremism in
general and more of Al Qaeda and its
affiliated groups specifically.
 Compared to the Cold War, threats
reduced.
 Most people in the Muslim world, want
development and a better life, not jihad.
So, work to build the positive, not just
combat the negative.
Obama’s Foreign Policy
 Other important tenets:
 Importance of America’s
reputation and values.
 World needs US leadership
to solve problems.
 Plans to talk more to foes
(Iran, North Korea) and
everyone else too.
 More bipartisanship at
home in foreign policy.
 America must stay calm,
not overreact.
 Setting the Tone:
The Inaugural Address
 Very domestic in focus.
 Scaled down, not as soaring
as some other Obama
speeches.
 Sense was: We’re in for
some tough times, but if we
pull together and work hard,
we’ll pull through.
 Foreign policy content was
more limited, but still
important.
 Setting the Tone:
The Inaugural Address
 “To all the other peoples and governments who are
watching today, from the grandest capitals to the small
village where my father was born, know that America is a
friend of each nation, and every man, woman and child who
seeks a future of peace and dignity.
 Just another line later:
 “Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and
communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with the
sturdy alliances and enduring convictions. They understood
that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us
to do as we please. Instead they knew that our power grows
through its prudent use; our security emanates from the
justness of our cause, the force of our example, the
tempering qualities of humility and restraint.”
 The World Obama Encounters

 Not the world he expected from the campaign to

January 20th.
 Probably expected to be the “Get-us-out-of-Iraq,
Repair-our-international-reputation president.”
 Instead, he’s the “Economy president.”
 Becomes one of the five top issues the president
encounters, the first I’ll discuss this morning.
 Top Challenges: The Economy

 Matters for foreign policy.

 Resources (hard power)
 Dents the supposed US model
of capitalism (and thus our
soft power)
 Hit to the budget and US
dollar over the long term
unknown, threat that people
will stop buying our bonds at
some point.
 Threat of protectionism and
deglobalization.
 The International Economy: Big
Picture
 IMF forecasts a global contraction of .5% – 1% in
2009, the first in 60 years.
Country GDP Growth GDP Growth GDP Growth
2008 2009 2010
(percentage) (forecast) (forecast)
(percentage) (percentage)
US 1.1 -2.6 0.2
Japan -0.7 -5.8 -0.2
Europe 0.9 -3.2 0.1
World 3.2 -0.5-0.7 1.5-2.5
Developing 6.1 1.5-2.5 3.5-4.5
 Not Stimulating Enough
 IMF believes 2% of GDP stimulus required. G20 spending
1.5%.
 Chief economist: better to do too much than to do too little.
Politicians need to reduce uncertainty or downward spiral
of consumer and producer decisions.
 Europe and Japan not doing enough.
 China and the US doing more.
 US pressures on Europeans to do more on spending,
according to Luxembourg Finance Minister, “not to our
liking.” Czech PM thought Obama’s spending was the
“road to hell.” (early example of not-Bush-still-problems).
 International Action:
G20 Summit
 To restore confidence, growth, and jobs
 US$ 5 trillion expansion (already announced)
 To repair the financial system, to repair lending
 Pledge to take action to build a stronger, more globally
consistent supervisory and regulatory framework for the
future financial sector.
 Financial Stability Board, early warning of
macroeconomic and financial risks. If notices problems
in risky behavior, will tell national authorities to regulate
more stringently.
 Deal with toxic assets (not a lot of specificity)
 International Action: G20
 To strengthen financial regulation and rebuild trust
 Regulate hedge funds and credit rating agencies.
 “Tough new principles” on bankers’ pay. Making risky
decisions, pay in shares to be held long term.
 Act against tax havens, sanctions. “The era of banking
secrecy is over.”
 Increase funding from $250 billion to $750 billion at IMF
($100 billion from Japan, $100 billion from Europe, $40
billion from China), including $250 billion of quantitative
easing, gets money flowing.
 Commit to reform of vote weight in IMF and WB, heads
appointed through open, merit-based process
(IMPORTANT AND MISSED)
 International Action: G20 Summit

 To promote global trade and investment and reject

protectionism.
 No new trade barriers for 12 months.
 Agree to minimize impact from domestic policy
actions on trade and investment.
 Calls on WTO to report on G20 trade barriers
 Commitment to complete Doha
 International Action: G20
 To build and inclusive, green, and sustainable
recovery.
 Recognize human dimensions of the crisis.
 MDG’s affirmed, commit to maintaining aid
despite crisis.
 Selling of $6 billion of IMF gold to help
developing world (These are loans at concessional
rates, not aid).
 Reaffirm commitment to control climate change,
make a success of Copenhagen at the end of the
year.
 Analysis: No new stimulus (France, Germany),
didn’t rule out more spending in future (US)
And, Michelle Obama touched the queen, more
what the media was interested in!!
 Raising Barriers
 Pledged to combat protectionism,
but according to the World Bank,
17 of 20 members of G20
including the US have put in
place 47 new trade barriers since
the crisis hit.
 Russia used cars
 Ecuador 600 items!
 China ban Irish pork, some
Belgian chocolates.
 India Chinese toys and steel.
 EU export subsidies.
 US bailout of automakers.
 World Bank President: Many
nations are falling for the “siren
song of protectionist fixes.”
 The Economy: Europe
 Exposure to Eastern Europe:
Austrian banks lending in the east,
80% of Austria’s GDP!
 Economic decline: Unemployment
in Spain 15% in 2009, 20% in
2010. 2009 -3 to -5% GDP.
 Ireland: 2009 -5% GDP,
unemployment 11%
 Necessity of bailout, inability to
agree, insufficient domestic
stimulus, according to IMF.
The Economy:
Eastern Europe

 Crisis caused by of over-borrowing, particularly over-

borrowing in euros and Swiss francs.
 As currencies have slid, burden has become impossible.
 Potential for defaults especially strong in Hungary, Ukraine,
Latvia (GDP slide 12% this year, riots pictured above in
January).
 Other issues: exports plummeting, remittances falling.
 Can’t recover as Asians did in1998 with exports due to global
nature of slump.
 Other Europeans don’t want to do the bailout, want IMF.
 The Economy: China
 Closing of half China’s 9,000 toy
factories.
 Threat of instability as
government’s pact with the people
based on delivering constantly
improving standards of living over
the last thirty years.
 Challenge to China’s growth model
as well. Save at home, send goods
abroad. Chinese going to have to
buy more and save less.
 Changed place for China on the
world stage. $40 billion big time
international player.
 Top Challenges: Afghanistan/Pakistan
 Obama made the case
during the campaign that
President Bush dropped
the ball in fighting terror
by switching the focus
from Afghanistan to Iraq.
 Pledged to raise the
number of combat troops
in Afghanistan.
 Deal with narco-
trafficking, helping to
fund Taliban.
 Talking about Terror

 Inaugural: “And for those who seek to advance

their aims by inducing terror and slaughtering
innocents, we say to you now that our spirit is
stronger and cannot be broken -- you cannot outlast
us, and we will defeat you.”
 Feb 2009 Joint Session speech: pledge to “defeat
Al Qaeda and combat extremism.”
 Action on Afghanistan/Pakistan

 Special Representatives
for AfPak: Holbrooke
 Policy review, new troops
on the way.
 60 Minutes Interview,
calls Afghanistan a “tough
nut to crack.”
 Get More Out of NATO
 In keeping with Obama’s desire to do
more in Afghanistan and to work more
with allies, the administration is pressing
allies to do more in Afghanistan.
 VP Biden to Europe in February to deliver
this message.
 Obama in France after G20. Told
Europeans America appreciated
Europeans’ fighting alongside us.
 Still, war is seen presently as being
“Americanized” with increased number of
US troops, unwillingness of allies to put
troops where they might actually have to
fight.
 Other countries that are fighting: Canada,
Netherlands.
 US Goals in Afghanistan
 From the State Department website:
 A stable, democratic, and economically successful
country.
 An Afghan government committed to the protection of
women's rights, human rights, and religious tolerance.
 US Tactics
 Up number of troops (Iraq)
 Up economic development
 Outbid Taliban for allies (Iraq)
 Press Karzai to crack down on
corruption, opium
 Do not allow safe haven in Pakistan
 Administration also talking about
talking to Taliban.

 Easier said than done.

 Problems in Afghanistan
 Is the Afghan
government worth
saving?
 Attack from the
left: end the war in
Iraq AND end the
war in Afghanistan.
 Can we achieve
those bold goals?
 Elections in Afghanistan
Coming August 20th
 Concerns that the South in
particular won’t vote.
 Went against Taliban warnings
in 2004, but now faith in Karzai
much reduced.
 Fighting intense, regular
security can’t be guaranteed for
the citizens, poll security can’t
be guaranteed, development
goods not being delivered.
 If the South doesn’t vote,
Pashtuns disenfanchised.
 Problems with Pakistan
 President Zardari domestic problems, battle with
Sharif, lawyers and courts.
 Lawless frontier region (cut deals leaving
extremists in control)
 US drone attacks have killed 543 people in
Pakistan, only 12 top Al Qaeda. Resentment.
Makes it difficult for the government of Pakistan,
especially a democratic government, to cooperate
with us.
 Top Challenges: Russia
 China may be the greater long-term threat to
the United States, but Russia is the more
immediate bugbear.
 Russian oil and gas wealth + high gas prices +
Putin’s use of nationalism= has led to
problems for the US.

 Illustrations:
 Medvedev’s March 2009 declaration that Russia
is going to engage in a “massive re-arming.”
 2007 claims in the Arctic as extension of
Russia’s continental shelf, planting the flag.
 Near-flights seen as aggressive by US, UK.
 Conflict with Georgia
 Despite mugging for the camera at G20 summit,
Medvedev attacks US dollar as global reserve
currency.
 Relations with Russia since the Fall of
the USSR: A Russian Perspective
 US gloated over winning the Cold War.
 Made Russia eat “shit.”
 US seen as fostering economic policies that caused
pain and decline from Russia’s status as a
superpower.
 Aid paltry.
 Oil wealth allowed Russia to swagger again (Putin
“contract”). Booming the last eight years with GDP
growth of 8% annually.
 Policies Aggravating Russia

 NATO expansion (Baltics

and more? Georgia,
Ukraine?)
 Abrogation of ABM
 US attempts to make
bases in the ‘Stans
permanent
 Missile defense
seemingly aimed more at
Russia than supposed
target Iran.
 Kosovo independence.
 Putin’s Contract Breaking?
 “We escaped it.”
 Now it is hitting. Drop oil prices, ruble has
declined, major job losses (unemployment
at 7.7%), rising prices of food.
 Talking shrinkage of economy 2% this
year openly, may hit 5-10%. Stockmarket
off 80%.
 Russians cannot finance lifestyles built on
import of food, cars, and tech goods.
 Will Putin be more tempted to use the
nationalist card to keep his “contract” in
place? Still at about 65% approval.
 Protests in Vladivostok.
 Things Obama Needs
Russia to Help With
 (This was sort of the extent to which Russia came up during
the campaign)
 Reducing nuclear weapons
 Controlling proliferation
 Safeguarding nuclear materials
 Iran (quid pro quo on missile defense?)
 Fighting terrorism

 Discussed at London G20 summit. Attempt to “push the reset

button” on the US-Russia relations.
 Will loss of oil wealth make Russia more of a problem or less?
Can be more, as Putin tries to hold on with nationalist card.
 Top Challenges: Climate Change
 During the campaign, climate
change one of Obama’s top
threats of the future.
 Make US a leader on climate
change.
 Grow numbers of green jobs.
 Specifically on climate
change, committed to
reducing green house gas
emissions (1990 levels by
2020, 80% down by 2050),
reverse climate change.
 In Office
 Budget plans to invest $15 billion a year for 10 years to
develop technologies like wind power and solar power,
and to build more efficient cars and trucks right here in
America (in keeping with campaign pledge).
 Cap-and-trade program for industry (getting own house
in order), legislation perhaps 12-18 months,
implementation over the next few years.
 Appointed a special envoy for climate change: Todd
Stern (suggest s priority), Clinton took him with her on
Feb 2009 Asia trip (suggests priority, China and
Indonesia big contributors to greenhouse gases).
 Stern on Climate Plans
 Spoke in March: “US is back” in the
climate change game. “We are seized
by the importance and urgency of the
task.”
 Where to: Copenhagen Conference in
December 2009, hope to get something
to replace Kyoto.
 Priorities for the US:
 Be guided by science
 Kyoto seemed tough but with little
benefits, implication need to correct
that.
 Stern, continued
 “The United States is committed to reaching a strong international
agreement in Copenhagen based on both the ambitious actions that
will be embodied in U.S. domestic law, and on the premise that the
agreement will reflect the important national actions of all major
economies to contain their respective emissions. This agreement
should encourage the most cost-effective reductions – including
reductions from the use and management of forests . . . “
 “We recognize that developing countries, including emerging
markets like China and India, have entirely legitimate development
needs and cannot be asked to forfeit the aspirations of their people to
a better life and a higher standard of living. Even now, for example,
nearly 35% of Chinese live on less than $2 a day. And India’s per
capita income and emissions are a fraction of those in OECD
countries.”
 Developing countries too are going to have to make cuts, developed
can’t do this by themselves, while developing countries’ emissions
grow.
 Pushback/Problems
 Attempt to limit carbon is going to hamstring
industry and cost jobs precisely at a time America’s
economy is already hurting.
 Congressman Kevin Brady (R) cost us “billions”!!
 Energy-intensive industries will just move abroad,
“race to the bottom.”
 President’s global warming initiatives not in drafts
of Congressional Democrat budget plans.
Copenhagen
 According to UN Climate
Chief Yvo de Boer, what
Copenhagen has to deal with
is:
 How much are industrial
countries willing to reduce
their emissions? Cost to
economy, especially hard at
time of recession. Not
impossible. Industrial leaders
asking for predictable
policies at Davos.
 How much are developing
countries like China and
India willing to limit growth
of their emissions? Left out
of Kyoto.
 Copenhagen, continued
 How will financial help be offered to developing
countries for adaptation and mitigation? Costs to
reduce and costs to deal with impacts, rising seas.
 How will this money be managed? Developing
countries don’t want it to be entirely donor driven.
 US negotiators keep in touch with Senate (at Kyoto
agreed to a treaty that could never get past the
Senate).
 180 countries negotiating in Copenhagen.
 Europeans’ Proposal
 OECD-wide emissions trading by 2015.
 Limit warming to 2 degrees above pre-industrial
temperature.
 EU estimate: transfer to developing countries E 54
billion (no time frame).
 Want air and shipping included in any agreement.
 Want developing countries to aim for 15-30%
below business as usual by 2020.
 Top Challenges: Iran
 Obama’s past policy on Iran.
 Dem debate: meet with series of
foreign leaders.
 Refined this position as “lead
tough, principled diplomacy with
the Iranian leader at a time and
place of my choosing if and only if
it advances the interests of the
United States.”
 “Not talking doesn’t make us look
tough—it makes us look arrogant.”
 Vowed to prevent the Iranians
from acquiring a nuclear weapon.
Use sticks and carrots.
 Iran: Multiple Challenges
 Iran, it turns out, poses multiple challenges to the
United States.
 Obvious issue of nuclear weapons, missile technology
(Feb satellite launch).
 But, Iran’s finger in many other pies where US has
interests.
 Supports Hezbollah in Lebanon, affecting Israel and
prospects for Middle East peace.
 Supports Hamas: ditto.
 Allies and activity in Iraq and Afghanistan, too.
 Happy Nowruz!!

 Obama issued a March 2009 message to the Iranian

people on the occasion of Nowruz, the Persian new
year.
 As with Nowruz, “a new beginning” in relations
between the US and Iran.
 Praises Iranian culture (music, literature) “have made
the world a better and more beautiful place.”
 Poet Saadi: “The children of Adam are limbs to each
other, having been created of one essence.”
 The Nowruz Message
 “We have serious differences that have grown over
time. My administration is committed to a
diplomacy that addresses the full range of issues
before us, and to pursuing constructive ties among
the US, Iran, and the international community.”
 Mentions Islamic Republic taking rightful place in
the community of nations (not regime change) but
with that place comes responsibility (can’t use
terror/arms).
 Update
 Joint action on Iran at London G20 Summit.
 US-Russia statement: “While we recognize that under
the NPT Iran has the right to a civilian nuclear
program, Iran needs to restore confidence in its
exclusively peaceful nature.”
 Meeting between Holbrooke and Iranian
representatives to talks on Afghanistan to which
Obama administration had invited Iran. Mrs. Clinton
warmly responded to Iranian delegate’s statements on
aid for Afghanistan/crackdown on drug smuggling.
 Also, passed Iran an unsigned note asking for help with
three Americans.
 The Iranian Response
 Khamenei: Points out that
“Happy Nowruz” comes just a
week after US extended
economic sanctions on Iran.
 Doesn’t want to follow this
“we’ll talk but while pressuring
you.” Wants relations based on
mutual respect.
 Says Obama’s message
reverberates with the rhetoric of
the Bush era.
 Khamenei’s remarks also show
Iran’s preoccupations.
 More Khamenei
 Problems with the US:
 Freezing Iranian assets
 Green light Saddam’s attack in 1980
 8 years of support of Saddam during Iran-Iraq War
 Downing Iranian passenger plane
 Demands our “great and honorable nation be wiped
out.”
 Obama extending hand to us, BUT.
 “If an iron hand is covered with a velvet glove,
extending the hand is insignificant and worthless.”
 What Khamenei Wants
 Appears to want US to do something real, in advance
of talks to show changed position toward Iran, let up
the pressure.
 “They say come and talk, come and establish relations,
they change slogans. Well, where is the change?”
 Mentions unfreezing assets, lifting sanctions, giving up
negative propaganda, giving up unconditional support
for Israel.
 Will judge the new US administration by its
performance.
 Watch: Iran
 Presidential elections coming in June.
 Expect discussion of relations with the West and
the US in particular to play a role in the campaign
between Ahmadinejad and any opponent (s).
 Government revenues down by half due to crash in
oil price, reducing the country’s room for
maneuver.
 People aware of prosperity outside and seem
fatigued with isolation.
 Challenges
 We’ve looked at: Economy, Afghanistan/Pakistan,
Russia, Iran, Climate Change.
 Important challenges not here: Just no room in a
“five top” for all the hard work Obama has to do.
 Iraq
 Israel, the Palestinians, and Arab neighbors
 China
 Much work to be done.