PREMISES AND

CONCLUSIONS
 Empirical
Statements
Statements that report what people
observe through their senses.

When you observe with your senses you’re

getting direct empirical evidence. When you get
reports of observations from other people or from
instruments, you’re getting indirect empirical
evidence.

Technical Terms: Empirical Knowledge, Empirical Theories

Empirical knowledge is any knowledge acquired, either directly or indirectly,
through observation. Empirical theories are theories about things you can
observe.
Here are some examples of empirical statements:
1. Triangular shapes are the most stable form for constructing the large
moving cranes used in the construction of buildings.
2. Grass turns purple when mowed by an unwilling teenager.
3. In 2006, more than 1 million smokers stopped smoking for at least one
day.
4. René Descartes was living in China when he invented analytic
geometry.
5. More world championships have been won by the New York Yankees
than by any other baseball team.
6. Cell phones regularly explode.
Is this statement uncontroversially false?

Everyone knows that two plus two equals four.

Lisa Frink and her team of researchers
were studying the adoption of metal
knives by Eskimos in Alaska. Before
contact with Europeans, Eskimos used
stone knives made of ground-slate. Then
they started using metal knives. Frink (a) Not long into the fish cutting, the [stone]
wondered if metal knives were more blade showed several chips at the cutting
efficient than slate knives. To test this, surface. (b) At the start she found that the
stone knife cut the flesh more easily than the
the researchers made some slate knives
salmon’s skin. (c) Eventually she was sawing
and asked some Eskimos to use them to at the flesh and using “lots of muscle” to cut it.
cut up salmon. (Frink 2003, 119)
Testimonial Empirical Statements
are the reports of what others have experienced

Testimonial statements Testimonial statements

When are testimonial premises
should only likelyasto be true?should only be used as assumed
be used
When shouldassumed premises
you assume when
testimonial premises?premises if the person making
they’re plausible. the statement
is reliable.
Two important criteria help us answer these questions: plausibility and reliability.
Definitional Statements
What’s the difference between an empirical statement and a definitional
statement?
1. Empirical statement: Triangular shapes are the most stable form for constructing large moving cranes used in
construction.
Definitional statement: A triangle is a three-sided polygon.

2. Empirical statement: Mark followed a recipe to make this cake.

Definitional statement: A recipe is a set of directions for making or preparing food.

3. Empirical statement: More world championships have been won by the New York Yankees than by any other
baseball team.
Definitional statement: A home run is a hit in baseball that allows the batter to touch all the bases and score a run.
Statements by Experts

Experts are people who have specialized knowledge about a particular field.

Some statements made by experts may be used as assumed premises. But

appropriately assuming statements made by experts is a difficult matter.
Criteria to determine whether a statement by an expert may be used as
an assumed premise:
Appropriate credentials
Reliability
Lack of bias
Appropriate area of expertise
Expert consensus.
Appropriate Credentials

Credentials are the evidence that a person provides to show that she really is an
expert. The most common sort of credential is an academic degree. Having a
degree in a particular field is evidence that a person is an expert in that field.

In addition to academic degrees, positions, publications, grants, awards, and

honors are important credentials. Positions are the jobs an expert has had. The jobs
that provide credentials are extremely varied. Being a professor is a job that
provides a credential. Many jobs in the business world indicate a level of expertise.
Reliability

Reliability isn’t about the expert’s knowledge. It’s about the expert’s history of
telling the truth. The question of the reliability of an expert is essentially the same
as the question of the reliability of a person who often tells jokes.
Lack of Bias
An expert is biased when that expert has some reason to make statements that aren’t true.

• The most common causes of bias have to do with money. On the other hand, you can’t dismiss
experts’ views only because the experts are being paid. The key is to consider whether the way
the experts are paid will influence their views.
• Another common source of bias is a political or ideological viewpoint. An expert might strongly
believe in a cause. The expert might cite evidence in a slanted way in order to further the cause.
Statements made by such an expert shouldn’t be used as assumed premises.
Appropriate Area of Expertise

A statement by an expert should only be used as an assumed premise if the

statement falls within the expert’s area of expertise.
Expert Consensus

If experts disagree about the truth of a statement, you shouldn’t use that statement as
an assumed premise. Disagreement between experts is an opportunity for critical
thinking.
 CONCLUSIONS

Strength of Conclusions
A conclusion can be stated with more or less strength. Let’s suppose that all of the following
statements are offered as conclusions:
(a) It’s just possible that inflation will rise next year.
(b) Inflation may rise next year.
(c) There is a good chance that inflation will rise next year.
(d) Inflation is likely to rise next year.
(e) Inflation is very likely to rise next year.
(f) It’s certain that inflation will rise next year.
Each of these sentences expresses the same statement.
(A) Inflation will rise next year.

But (a) through (f) express (A) with varying degrees of strength. Statement
(a) expresses (A) weakly. Statement (f) expresses (A) with a great deal of
strength. These statements use only some of the ways that you can indicate
the strength of a conclusion. Words such as “might,” “could,” “should,”
“probably,” “definitely,” and many others can be used to indicate the strength
of a conclusion.

The strength of a conclusion refers to the degree of certainty that the author
of an argument attributes to the conclusion.
Scope of Conclusions

Some conclusions are about groups of things. When a conclusion is about a group of things, the
conclusion will have a scope. Look at the following statements:

(a) There is at least one person who is taller than A.

(b) Some people are taller than A.
(c) Quite a few people are taller than A.
(d) About half of all people are taller than A.
(e) Most people are taller than A.
(f) Everyone is taller than A.
Statement (a) is true and (f) is false. Statement (a) has narrower scope.
Statement (f) has broader scope. In fact, (a) has the narrowest possible
scope and (f) has the broadest possible scope.

Scope refers to the percentage of a group in a conclusion that’s

claimed to have a particular feature. The broader the scope of a
conclusion, the better the argument in support of that conclusion needs
to be.