Value Migration

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VALUE MIGRATION

VALUE & MIGRATION – MEANING

- Value
- Worth or usefulness of something
- Estimate the money’s worth

- Migration
- Movement of one part of something to another
WHAT IS VALUE MIGRATION
THREE STAGES OF VALUE MIGRATION

- Limited Competition - Competitive Stability


“ One of a Kind ” - High Growth - Stable Market Share
- High Profitability - Stable Margins

Market - Competitive Intensity


- Declining Sales
Value/Revenue
- Low Profits

!!! Resources and Customers leave


at an accelerating rate !!!

Value Inflow Value Stability Value Outflow “ Commodity ”


WHY STAGES?

• Stage 1 – Value Inflow – What is the business model that helps an organization to become
profitable?
• Stage 2 – Value Stability – What is the economic life of that business model?
• Stage 3 – Value Outflow – What is the next business model as per the changing
Customer’s preferences?
Value Migration Status Of Companies

Infosys
12
Wipro

10

6 Ranbaxy lab

Dr.Reddy’s lab
HDFC Bank
4
HLL

Colgate ITC BAJAJ AUTO


2 ONGC RIL Nirma
GAIL SBI HPCL
Hindalco HDFC ICICI BANK
Hero Honda
Tata Steel Telco SAIL IOCL
0
Conquest Zone Comfort Zone Vulnerable Zone
MARKET VALUE / REVENUE

2.5
7.5

0
5
10
Infosys

Wipro

Dr.Reddy’s

Ranbaxy

HDFC Bank

ONGC

ICICI Bank

Bajaj Auto

Hero Honda

MTNL
VALUE MIGRATION

TISCO

SBI

SAIL

HPCL

IOCL

BPCL
ACTIVITY: ON WHICH STAGE ARE THE SECTORS
AT PRESENT

• Airlines
• Chemicals
Market Share • Computing
/Revenue • Entertainment

Value Inflow Value Stability Value Outflow


CAUSES OF VALUE MIGRATION

- Technology
- Cost
- Convenience
- Lowering of entry barriers
- Lower switching costs
- Easier access to capital
- Innovation
TYPES OF VALUE MIGRATION

- Inter – country Migration (Indian I.T., Indian Pharmaceuticals)


- Inter – industry within a Country (Railways to Airlines due to low cost and no frills)
- Inter – company within an Industry (Public Sector Banks to Private Sector Banks,
Telecom)
- Inter – segment within a Company (Voice calling to Data calling within a telecom
industry)
#1 PUBLIC SECTOR BANKS TO PRIVATE SECTOR
BANKS
- Initiation of value migration since 1995 (LPG)
- Value Migration Drivers – Efficiency, Technology
- Catalyst to Value Migration Drivers:
- Rapid Changing Technology
- Public Sector Banks unable to match customer-friendly user interface
- Unsustainable level of NPAs
- Public Sector Banks lost 8% market share
#2 100CC MOTORCYCLES TO PREMIUM
MOTORCYCLES
- References – Eicher Motors Limited, Bajaj Auto, Hero Motocorp
- Value Migration Drivers – Changing Customer Priorities
- Initially (1955) Royal Enfield failed to win Customers due to high price, maintenance cost
and bad mileage, therefore CAGR was 10-12% compared to 55% at present
- The market cap are as follows:
Royal Enfield Hero Motocorp Bajaj Auto
F.Y. 2010 17 bn 388 bn 292 bn
F.Y. 2016 664 bn 675 bn 819 bn
#3 INTERNATIONAL VALUE MIGRATION IN I.T.
SECTOR
- Reference – Infosys, HCL, TCS and Wipro
- Value Migration Driver – Cost
- Achievements:
- 20x Growth in 15 years
- Leadership Position in I.T. BPM solutions
- Catalyst to Value Migration Drivers – Process Excellence, Cost Optimisation, Human
Capital Leadership
#3 INTERNATIONAL VALUE MIGRATION IN I.T.
SECTOR

Tabulation Computation (IBM)

Specialised Business Integrated Business


Design (Intel Design (DEC)
Microsoft, DeLL, HP)
#4 INTERNATIONAL VALUE MIGRATION IN
INDIAN PHARMACEUTICAL SECTOR
- Reference – Pharmaceutical Sector
- Value Migration Driver – Cost, R & D
- R & D spending is 8 – 10%
- Production cost in India is 65% less than production in U.S. and 50% less than production
in Europe
- Inorganic route of growth
- Avoiding Tapering in products, more on creating differentiated products
ACTIVITY: WHERE HAS THE FOCUS OF TODAY’S
INDUSTRIES SHIFTED TO?
From To
Revenue
Product Power
Technology
Value of Market Share
ACTIVITY: WHERE HAS THE FOCUS OF TODAY’S
INDUSTRIES SHIFTED TO?
From To
Revenue Profit
Product Power Customer Power
Technology Business Design
Market Share Value of Market Share
HOW TO DETECT VALUE MIGRATION

- Indications: (Even before the financial statements)


- Market Share Movements – Indigo Airlines, Eicher Motors
- Innovation Leadership – Asian Paints, Amazon
- Customer Satisfaction – Decline of Public Sector Banks
- Policy Changes – Aviation Industry, Power Industry
ACTIVITY – IDENTIFY THE VALUE MIGRATION
DRIVERS
Sectors Drivers / Causes
Banking / Insurance
Pharmaceutical
Information Technology
Capital Goods
Jewellery
Cement
Transportation
Automobiles
ACTIVITY – IDENTIFY THE VALUE MIGRATION
DRIVERS
Sectors Drivers / Causes
Banking / Insurance Technology Efficiency
Pharmaceutical R & D, Cost
Information Technology Cost
Capital Goods Preference for New Energy Sources
Jewellery Trust in Brand
Cement Cost, Demand Supply Equilibrium
Transportation Convenience Cost
Automobiles Technology
REVERSE VALUE MIGRATION

- Reverse value migration can be defined as the flow of value back to the point of its
emanation.
- For example, if value has migrated from industry A to industry B, then reverse value
migration is the flow of value back to industry A.
- Case studies
-Value Migration from traditional FMCG to Ayurveda/Herbal players [Patanjali
Ayurved]

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